Week 2 was one to be forgotten. An embarrassing 5-11 overall record with 1-4 in SC picks isn't going to cut it. But aside from that Week 2 was full of injuries. Jamaal Charles, AJ Green, RG3, Knowshon Moreno, DeSean Jackson and Mark Ingram all went down. Not to mention the news of Adrian Peterson being shut down because of child abuse allegations. By the way, has the NFL ever been in a worse place than now with Ray Rice, Peterson, Greg Hardy, Jonathan Dwyer and Ray MacDonald all being in the headlines for some sort of domestic abuse? Anyway, Week 3 brings a Super Bowl rematch between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. Denver has a revamped defense as 9 of 11 starters this year that did not play in the Super Bowl. This week I have to make it quick on the picks since I've spent this week moving to Bristol, Connecticut. Here we go.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BILLS -2.5 over Chargers Buffalo strong at home, SD still celebrating Seattle win
Cowboys -1 over RAMS Cowboys started better than expected, take down depleted Rams
Packers +2.5 over LIONS Detroit has no secondary, Rodgers and Co. go off
CARDINALS +3 over 49ers Arizona keeps it close even without Palmer
PANTHERS -3.5 over Steelers Cam came back strong and defense looks great
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS -6.5 over Bucs Too much firepower for Falcons at home
Redskins +6.5 over EAGLES Cousins looked great and Eagles slow coming off big win
GIANTS +2 over Texans Giants stink but Texans coming from Oakland
SAINTS -10 over Vikings Saints turn it up after 0-2 start
BENGALS -6.5 over Titans Bengals D too tough for Tennessee
BROWNS +1.5 over Ravens Cleveland riding high after win over Saints
Colts -7 over JAGUARS Jags have no offense and no defense
Raiders +14 over PATRIOTS Only because it's 14 points
Broncos +5 over SEAHAWKS Peyton has been waiting for a rematch
DOLPHINS -4 over Chiefs No Jamaal Charles means big problems for Chiefs
JETS -3 over Bears Geno Smith plays better at home, so does defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 3-7
Overall
Last Week: 5-11
Season Total: 11-21
Showing posts with label detroit lions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label detroit lions. Show all posts
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
NFL Week 17 Pick'em
Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money. Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it. The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick. However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason. For the last time, let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
NFL Week 16 Pick'em
Our second strong week in a row has a in position to finish the year with a little bit of extra money in our pockets.
The trip to Las Vegas was a little bit of a success but it was horrible
watching my Detroit Lions lose on a 61-yard FG to the Ravens 18-16. The
Cowboys had their end of the year meltdown as well with the Packers
rallying from 23-points down to win 37-36. Arizona almost gave me a
heart attack giving up 17 points in the final 3:12 to the Titans but
pulled it out in OT 37-34. And I can't forget to mention the day Jamaal
Charles had combining for 215 yards and five touchdowns propelling many
fantasy teams in the finals and bouncing two of my teams out of the
playoffs. We still haven't had a losing SuperContest week since Week 7
but we haven't gained much ground as we've been going back and forth
between 3-2 and 2-2-1. This week there are many teams that are trying
to stay in the playoff hunt. No teams in the NFC have clinched their
division yet and three teams are still competing in the NFC North. Time
to get in the holiday spirit and get some extra cash for more presents!
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PANTHERS -3 over Saints Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.
RAMS -3.5 over Bucs Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.
Browns +2 over JETS Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.
Steelers +1 over PACKERS Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.
Giants +9 over LIONS Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.
Other NFL
Dolphins -3 over BILLS Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.
REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.
EAGLES -3 over Bears Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.
CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.
BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.
Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.
JAGUARS +4 over Titans Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.
Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.
Raiders +10 over CHARGERS Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.
Patriots PK over RAVENS Ravens not as good as record shows.
49ERS -13.5 over Falcons Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 39-32-4
Overall
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 114-102-7
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PANTHERS -3 over Saints Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.
RAMS -3.5 over Bucs Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.
Browns +2 over JETS Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.
Steelers +1 over PACKERS Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.
Giants +9 over LIONS Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.
Other NFL
Dolphins -3 over BILLS Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.
REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.
EAGLES -3 over Bears Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.
CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.
BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.
Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.
JAGUARS +4 over Titans Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.
Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.
Raiders +10 over CHARGERS Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.
Patriots PK over RAVENS Ravens not as good as record shows.
49ERS -13.5 over Falcons Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 39-32-4
Overall
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 114-102-7
Monday, November 25, 2013
NFL Week 12 Pick'em
This is not good. We can't seem to shake this funk and get any traction. We continue to barely hold our heads above water in the SuperContest. But, we are still within striking distance of a decent year and with a few good weeks to end the season we could end up with some profit. In the big game last week the Broncos beat the undefeated Chiefs 27-17. This week all eyes will be on Denver again when they head to New England. I also think I need to change things up this week as we'll have all games with ten words or less breakdowns. Maybe that will bring us home the goods.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Bucs +9 over LIONS Glennon has been getting better each week.
CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers KC picks themselves back up after first loss.
RAMS -1.5 over Bears Rams off bye, Cutler still out.
Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts Don't sleep on the Cards at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS +7.5 over Saints I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.
Jaguars +10 over TEXANS Guess I'll take the points if I have to.
Vikings +4 over PACKERS Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.
RAIDERS +1 over Titans Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.
GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.
PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos Remember Patriots-Saints? Same thing here.
49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 28-24-3
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-2
Season Total: 78-77-6
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Bucs +9 over LIONS Glennon has been getting better each week.
CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers KC picks themselves back up after first loss.
RAMS -1.5 over Bears Rams off bye, Cutler still out.
Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts Don't sleep on the Cards at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS +7.5 over Saints I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.
Jaguars +10 over TEXANS Guess I'll take the points if I have to.
Vikings +4 over PACKERS Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.
RAIDERS +1 over Titans Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.
GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.
PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos Remember Patriots-Saints? Same thing here.
49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 28-24-3
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-2
Season Total: 78-77-6
Sunday, November 10, 2013
NFL Week 10 Pick'em
As we make the turn for the second half of the season we are barely keeping our heads above water. Sitting at 24-20-1 for the SuperContest and 68-61-3 overall we are in the positive but not by much. We had some bad luck last week with the Chargers not being able to punch it in from the one-yard line then subsequently losing to the Redskins in OT. But I can't complain too much as we were on the right side of luck and Andrew Luck led the Colts on a huge comeback against the Texans with a perfect two-point conversion pass late to cover the 2.5 spread. This week all eyes will be on our Detroit Lions as they head to Chicago for a battle of first place in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers getting hurt Monday night against the Bears, the division is ripe for Detroit or Chicago to take control for a playoff push. Gotta be quick with this one.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
2013 NFL Midseason Totals
With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out. The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets. They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line. We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year. But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid. There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 8 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Thursday, October 17, 2013
NFL Week 7 Pick'em
We tried to get back on track but we couldn't as we had our second losing week in a row. Minnesota was torched at home as the whole team seemed to be affected by the tragic loss of Adrian Peterson's son and the Texans were also blown out at home with no excuse by the Rams 38-13. On a good note, the Jaguars finally got their first cover against Denver in the biggest spread in history. This week all eyes are on Peyton Manning making his return to Indianapolis to face the Colts. Colts owner Jim Irsay has already stirred the pot saying Peyton didn't win enough rings for the franchise. Manning had no comment for a rebuttal and I assume he will let his play do the talking. Let's get on with it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -6 over Texans
I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week. Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second. They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub. The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game. The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.
Bears PK over REDSKINS
Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious. He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins. For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks. The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.
LIONS -2.5 over Bengals
Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards. That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria. The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1. The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays. They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012. DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4). Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.
GIANTS -3 over Vikings
The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week. Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column. I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong. The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now. As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son. They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game. The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.
JAGUARS +8 over Chargers
Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos. This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town. Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games. Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD. San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce. The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game. Take the home-dog in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.
Patriots -4 over JETS Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.
Bills +8 over DOLPHINS Miami won't score enough to cover 8.
EAGLES -3 over Cowboys Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.
PANTHERS -6 over Rams Cam made me a believer last week.
FALCONS -7 over Bucs Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.
49ers -4 over TITANS SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.
PACKERS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.
Ravens +2 over STEELERS Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.
Broncos -6.5 over COLTS Peyton purposely runs up the score.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 17-12-1
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 48-40-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -6 over Texans
I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week. Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second. They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub. The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game. The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.
Bears PK over REDSKINS
Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious. He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins. For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks. The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.
LIONS -2.5 over Bengals
Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards. That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria. The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1. The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays. They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012. DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4). Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.
GIANTS -3 over Vikings
The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week. Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column. I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong. The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now. As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son. They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game. The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.
JAGUARS +8 over Chargers
Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos. This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town. Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games. Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD. San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce. The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game. Take the home-dog in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.
Patriots -4 over JETS Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.
Bills +8 over DOLPHINS Miami won't score enough to cover 8.
EAGLES -3 over Cowboys Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.
PANTHERS -6 over Rams Cam made me a believer last week.
FALCONS -7 over Bucs Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.
49ers -4 over TITANS SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.
PACKERS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.
Ravens +2 over STEELERS Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.
Broncos -6.5 over COLTS Peyton purposely runs up the score.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 17-12-1
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 48-40-3
Thursday, September 26, 2013
NFL Week 4 Pick'em
Well that was painful. After two winning weeks in the SuperContest I totally bombed and went 1-4. I was completely wrong about the Vikings-Browns game as the Vikings are a lot worse than I expected and Josh Gordon's return to the Browns was a big difference for that team, even without T-Rich. Also, I thought I had the Packers game wrapped up until a fumble return for a touchdown. One thing I'm learning as I pick every game and take notes is how great home field advantage is in the NFL. We all know that playing at home helps but last week the home team went 10-5-1 ATS. And for the season, home underdogs are 8-4. That's a big number considering that home-dogs usually occur when top ten teams are visitors. This week we have 7 home-dogs (excluding the Steelers-Vikings being played in London) so we will get an even better feel for the home field advantage lesser teams receive against better opponents. Hopefully Week 4 goes a little smoother with that in mind.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -4 over Giants
Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm. Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?). On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week. What's happened to Eli and this defense? And don't even get me started on David Wilson. He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts. The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.
Seahawks -3 over TEXANS
Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't. It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up. All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL. It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee. Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC. The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.
TITANS -3.5 over Jets
Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record. If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous. The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20. These teams are very similar in their style. Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over. In situations like this I like to ride the home team. Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs. Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.
CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys
Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour. Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start. He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT. Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT. This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.
Bears +3 over LIONS
It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car. That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing. The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson. Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell. But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever. They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses). Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0. This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.
Other NFL in 10 or less
RAMS +3 over 49ers Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.
BILLS +3.5 over Ravens Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.
BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.
Colts -8 over JAGUARS Can't get myself to take the Jags again.
Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.
Vikings +2 over Steelers Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.
Redskins -3 over RAIDERS If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.
BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.
FALCONS -2 over Patriots Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.
SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 8-7
Overall
Last Week: 7-8-1
Season Total: 24-21-2
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -4 over Giants
Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm. Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?). On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week. What's happened to Eli and this defense? And don't even get me started on David Wilson. He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts. The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.
Seahawks -3 over TEXANS
Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't. It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up. All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL. It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee. Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC. The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.
TITANS -3.5 over Jets
Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record. If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous. The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20. These teams are very similar in their style. Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over. In situations like this I like to ride the home team. Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs. Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.
CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys
Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour. Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start. He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT. Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT. This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.
Bears +3 over LIONS
It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car. That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing. The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson. Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell. But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever. They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses). Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0. This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.
Other NFL in 10 or less
RAMS +3 over 49ers Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.
BILLS +3.5 over Ravens Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.
BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.
Colts -8 over JAGUARS Can't get myself to take the Jags again.
Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.
Vikings +2 over Steelers Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.
Redskins -3 over RAIDERS If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.
BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.
FALCONS -2 over Patriots Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.
SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 8-7
Overall
Last Week: 7-8-1
Season Total: 24-21-2
Thursday, September 19, 2013
NFL Week 3 Pick'em
The big news in the NFL was Trent Richardson being dealt to the
Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick. When I saw this I
didn't believe it. T-Rich was the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft and
he's already been traded. If the Browns are interested in rebuilding wouldn't you want to do that around a great running back like Richardson? I'm kind of confused but I do know that the Browns will have a hard time winning games now and I guess they are in a fight for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft with Jacksonville.
It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend. However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2. It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone. The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again. They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread). Let's get back on track in Week 3.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns
I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now. The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help. Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer. Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson. But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball. This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home. AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown.
Bills +2.5 over JETS
Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team. Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York. Last week was a perfect example of this. Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10. However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23. I'll take the better QB and the points.
DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons
I totally doubted Miami coming into this year. I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace. But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around. Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions. Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1. Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug. They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel. Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor. Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.
Packers -3 over BENGALS
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day. Green Bay also found new life at the running back position. After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild. Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD. The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers. Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends. This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.
Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS
I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago. They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs. Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's. For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory. The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough. Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Chiefs +3 over EAGLES Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.
TITANS -3 over Chargers Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.
Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.
RAVENS +2.5 over Texans Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.
Rams +4 over COWBOYS Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.
Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.
PANTHERS -1 over Giants Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.
Colts +10 over 49ERS Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.
STEELERS +2.5 over Bears Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.
BRONCOS -15 over Raiders Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 7-3
Overall
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 17-13-1
It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend. However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2. It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone. The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again. They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread). Let's get back on track in Week 3.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns
I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now. The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help. Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer. Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson. But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball. This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home. AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown.
Bills +2.5 over JETS
Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team. Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York. Last week was a perfect example of this. Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10. However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23. I'll take the better QB and the points.
DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons
I totally doubted Miami coming into this year. I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace. But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around. Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions. Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1. Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug. They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel. Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor. Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.
Packers -3 over BENGALS
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day. Green Bay also found new life at the running back position. After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild. Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD. The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers. Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends. This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.
Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS
I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago. They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs. Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's. For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory. The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough. Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Chiefs +3 over EAGLES Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.
TITANS -3 over Chargers Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.
Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.
RAVENS +2.5 over Texans Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.
Rams +4 over COWBOYS Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.
Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.
PANTHERS -1 over Giants Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.
Colts +10 over 49ERS Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.
STEELERS +2.5 over Bears Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.
BRONCOS -15 over Raiders Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 7-3
Overall
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 17-13-1
Monday, September 9, 2013
NFL Week 1 Pick'em
The NFL season kicked off yesterday with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos disposing of the defending champion Baltimore Ravens 49-27. I was in Las Vegas for the game and there is nothing like being in a casino sports book during the NFL. Every week squares and sharps lineup to test their football knowledge against the spreads trying to show they know more than the bookmakers. The biggest draw for average joes and professionals to compete against the odds is the SuperContest at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.
The SuperContest is to sports gamblers as the World Series of Poker is to poker players. There is a $1,500 entry fee and each week you pick 5 NFL games against the spread. Last year was its biggest with 745 entries and over $1.1 million in the prize pool with the winner receiving $447,000. I've always been fascinated with the world of sports betting, but since I'm broke I can't enter the SuperContest. So I'm going to pick my 5 NFL games on here as well as the rest of the games each week. I'll track my stats and see if I can reach the 60% mark by the end of the season, which is what players usually need to hit to get in the money. I will use the lines I find on SportsMemo's live odds page, because they show up to the minute odds for the Las Vegas Hilton. Also, keep in mind that when it comes to sports betting I'm like Remo Gaggi, a degenerate that only gets it right if Sam 'Ace' Rothstein is making my plays. So without further ado...
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
With Carson Palmer joining the Cardinals this offseason, this offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at the helm and the team boasting three 1,000 yard receivers. Now, I don't think this team will make the Super Bowl like in 2008 or even the playoffs. But Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd will put up big numbers in Bruce Arians pass happy offense. Their defense is solid as well and St. Louis will have a tough time keeping up on the points.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I'm not buying into all the hype around the Miami Dolphins this year. Ryan Tannehill showed me nothing last season (12 TDs and 13 INTs) for me to believe in his drastic improvement. Also, I don't see Lamar Miller as a solid starting RB in the NFL and Mike Wallace will be a flop. I'm not sold on the Browns by any means either, but one guy I am high on is Trent Richardson. The Dolphins will struggle to stop T-Rich and also cover TE Jordan Cameron (huge fantasy sleeper).
Chiefs -3.5 over JAGUARS
The Kansas City Chiefs will be one the most improved teams in 2013 and it's all because of Alex Smith (I never thought I'd say that). But the thing about Smith is that he won't wow you with stats but he usually won't lose a game for you either. And that's exactly what the Chiefs need. With a great back like Jamaal Charles and a defense that had three Pro-Bowlers a year ago (one at each level), this team will challenge for the playoffs. On the other hand, Jacksonville will challenge for worst team in the league.
LIONS -5 over Vikings
Oh, our favorite Detroit Lions. This is really hard to put confidence in this game because every time we start to have confidence with the Lions they quickly disappoint us, usually painfully. But I think the addition of Reggie Bush is really big, and not even for the running game, but the passing attack. Last year Matthew Stafford threw the ball a NFL record 727 times. Bush will work wonders on screens and in the flats (top-5 RB in PPR leagues). As for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league but that happens to be the Lions strong suit on defense. Peterson will go off, but not enough to cover for the Vikes.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Giants
In a classic rivalry like Cowboys-Giants it's tough to predict a winner because anything can happen. However, the Giants have won every game (4) at Jerry Jones' new massive stadium, which tells me the Cowboys are due to put an end to that streak. Tony Romo I feel is fit to have a solid year and with how well Dez Bryant played down the stretch in 2012, this offense will put up points. It will come down to their defense stopping Eli Manning. The Giants have their share of solid receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and an emerging Rueben Randle but Dallas will get just enough out of their D to prevail.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Patriots -10 over BILLS Buffalo is another team in contention for worst in NFL.
Titans +7 over STEELERS Pittsburgh will struggle to score enough to cover 7.
SAINTS -3 over Falcons In a shootout you always go with the home favorite.
Bucs -3.5 over JETS Jets don't have a quarterback, Bucs have a muscle hamster.
BEARS -3 over Bengals Bears defense will be too much.
Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS Seattle shows why they are the early Super Bowl favorite.
Raiders +10 over COLTS Look for the Colts to have a down year.
49ERS -4.5 over Packers San Fran's defense will be the difference.
REDSKINS -4 over Eagles College coaches struggle in the NFL until proven otherwise.
Texans -5 over CHARGERS Chargers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Houston.
The SuperContest is to sports gamblers as the World Series of Poker is to poker players. There is a $1,500 entry fee and each week you pick 5 NFL games against the spread. Last year was its biggest with 745 entries and over $1.1 million in the prize pool with the winner receiving $447,000. I've always been fascinated with the world of sports betting, but since I'm broke I can't enter the SuperContest. So I'm going to pick my 5 NFL games on here as well as the rest of the games each week. I'll track my stats and see if I can reach the 60% mark by the end of the season, which is what players usually need to hit to get in the money. I will use the lines I find on SportsMemo's live odds page, because they show up to the minute odds for the Las Vegas Hilton. Also, keep in mind that when it comes to sports betting I'm like Remo Gaggi, a degenerate that only gets it right if Sam 'Ace' Rothstein is making my plays. So without further ado...
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
With Carson Palmer joining the Cardinals this offseason, this offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at the helm and the team boasting three 1,000 yard receivers. Now, I don't think this team will make the Super Bowl like in 2008 or even the playoffs. But Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd will put up big numbers in Bruce Arians pass happy offense. Their defense is solid as well and St. Louis will have a tough time keeping up on the points.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I'm not buying into all the hype around the Miami Dolphins this year. Ryan Tannehill showed me nothing last season (12 TDs and 13 INTs) for me to believe in his drastic improvement. Also, I don't see Lamar Miller as a solid starting RB in the NFL and Mike Wallace will be a flop. I'm not sold on the Browns by any means either, but one guy I am high on is Trent Richardson. The Dolphins will struggle to stop T-Rich and also cover TE Jordan Cameron (huge fantasy sleeper).
Chiefs -3.5 over JAGUARS
The Kansas City Chiefs will be one the most improved teams in 2013 and it's all because of Alex Smith (I never thought I'd say that). But the thing about Smith is that he won't wow you with stats but he usually won't lose a game for you either. And that's exactly what the Chiefs need. With a great back like Jamaal Charles and a defense that had three Pro-Bowlers a year ago (one at each level), this team will challenge for the playoffs. On the other hand, Jacksonville will challenge for worst team in the league.
LIONS -5 over Vikings
Oh, our favorite Detroit Lions. This is really hard to put confidence in this game because every time we start to have confidence with the Lions they quickly disappoint us, usually painfully. But I think the addition of Reggie Bush is really big, and not even for the running game, but the passing attack. Last year Matthew Stafford threw the ball a NFL record 727 times. Bush will work wonders on screens and in the flats (top-5 RB in PPR leagues). As for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league but that happens to be the Lions strong suit on defense. Peterson will go off, but not enough to cover for the Vikes.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Giants
In a classic rivalry like Cowboys-Giants it's tough to predict a winner because anything can happen. However, the Giants have won every game (4) at Jerry Jones' new massive stadium, which tells me the Cowboys are due to put an end to that streak. Tony Romo I feel is fit to have a solid year and with how well Dez Bryant played down the stretch in 2012, this offense will put up points. It will come down to their defense stopping Eli Manning. The Giants have their share of solid receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and an emerging Rueben Randle but Dallas will get just enough out of their D to prevail.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Patriots -10 over BILLS Buffalo is another team in contention for worst in NFL.
Titans +7 over STEELERS Pittsburgh will struggle to score enough to cover 7.
SAINTS -3 over Falcons In a shootout you always go with the home favorite.
Bucs -3.5 over JETS Jets don't have a quarterback, Bucs have a muscle hamster.
BEARS -3 over Bengals Bears defense will be too much.
Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS Seattle shows why they are the early Super Bowl favorite.
Raiders +10 over COLTS Look for the Colts to have a down year.
49ERS -4.5 over Packers San Fran's defense will be the difference.
REDSKINS -4 over Eagles College coaches struggle in the NFL until proven otherwise.
Texans -5 over CHARGERS Chargers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Houston.
2013 NFL Season Totals
With the NFL season upon us I've decided to focus a lot of attention to sports betting. The NFL is the most bet on sport and is talked about quite often. In the first installment, I've gone through all 32 teams and gave you
my predictions for their total wins. The odds associated are straight off the
sheet from Caesars Palace. Some teams have a real good value (Browns under 6.5 +135) whereas others were jumped on early and the price was really affected (Chiefs over 7.5 -175). For those that don't know what I'm talking about, if you took the Chiefs to win more than 7.5 games, you would have to bet $175 to win $100. Whereas if you took the Browns to win less than 6.5 games, you would win $1.35 for every $1 you bet, which means if you bet $100 you would win $135. Here's what I came up with.
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | ||
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | ||
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | ||
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 |
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Detroit Lions Draft Day Decisions
The NFL Draft starts with the first round this Thursday, April 25 at 8pm and the Detroit Lions currently hold the 5th overall selection. They have a lot of needs to fill and have plenty of options to consider. Let's go over their possibilities and who might be the best fit.
Eric Fisher 6-7 306 OT Central Michigan
Why They Should - Eric Fisher is the #2 offensive tackle behind projected #1 overall pick Luke Joeckel. He already has the size of a NFL lineman and great foot-speed as well. Fisher was first-team All-MAC in his senior year and had a standout game in the Senior Bowl, which even further boosted his draft stock. Not only can Fisher run and pass block well, but he has the athleticism to get downfield blocks to help bust big runs. Coming out of Central Michigan University, naturally he'll be compared to Joe Staley, who has been a Pro Bowl tackle for the San Francisco 49ers the last two years. If he's anything like Staley, that bodes well for whoever drafts the fellow Chip.
Why They Shouldn't - There's not much to say negatively about Fisher as he has almost all the tools to look for in an offensive tackle. One knock on him is that he has size but maybe not the strength to handle NFL defensive ends, but that can come over time. Also, the Lions drafted another offensive tackle, Riley Reiff, at #22 overall in last years draft. However, with the departure of Gosder Cherilus to the Indianpolis Colts and the retirement of Jeff Backus (and his false starts), the Lions might have room to add another tackle.
Dee Milliner 6-0 201 CB Alabama
Why They Should - It's well-known that the Lions need a lot of help in their secondary, especially at the cornerback position. That position has been a revolving door lately and Dee Milliner would definitely provide an anchor for that part of the defense. Already being labeled as the next Darrelle Revis, Milliner ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine (fastest for his position) and shut down Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert in the BCS Championship game. He's shown that he has size and enough strength to handle bigger receivers and the speed to stay with quicker players. He was named a unanimous first-team All-American and All-SEC member last year after his junior season.
Why They Shouldn't - Milliner has decent size but is not the best tackler. Strong receivers and runningbacks are able to break through most of his tackles. He's great at defending passes, he had 22 PD's last year, but doesn't have the best hands, only two interceptions. If you are going to take a corner in the top five you better make sure they are either Pro Bowl material or have longevity for your team.
Dion Jordan 6-6 248 OLB Oregon
Why They Should - Dion Jordan has the combination of size and speed you look for in great defensive players as he has ability to rush the passer and cover tight ends down the field. Jordan's numbers from Oregon won't wow you but he was troubled with a lingering shoulder injury his senior year. Even with that he was still able to rack up 44 tackles, 10.5 for loss and five sacks. The potential for Jordan to grow is obvious and that's why he's so high on draft boards. Detroit lost Justin Durant to the Dallas Cowboys in free agency so they are looking to fill a linebacker spot to go along with Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy.
Why They Shouldn't - Jordan is looked at to be a tweener in the NFL, which is never a good label for anybody in any sport. Depending on what type of defensive scheme the team that drafts him runs, he might find himself as a defensive end or linebacker. Also, I mentioned his shoulder injury that was aggravated in the Ducks bowl game, it required surgery in the offseason and could develop into a continuous problem the longer his career goes. His numbers were good but not great at Oregon and for a this high of pick you would want to be wowed when looking at his stats, could have been the system though with how much he was in coverage.
Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah 6-5 271 DE BYU
Why They Should - A player that whose draft stock has sky rocketed since the combine and Senior Bowl has been Ziggy Ansah. In some mock drafts he's going as high as #2 overall. Coming out of BYU, the native from Ghana originally wanted to play basketball and when that didn't work he turned to the gridiron. He showed surprising quickness for a 270-pound defensive end and is similar to the New York Giants Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. In his senior year at BYU he recorded 62 tackles, 13 for a loss and 4.5 sacks. That was his only year as a full-time starter as he went from never playing the sport, to special teams player, to starter in three seasons. The improvements and learning ability over that time shows that Ansah is very coachable and applies what he's taught. Not to mention he's the freak athlete of this class. The departure of Cliff Avril to the Seattle Seahawks and decline of Kyle Vanden Bosch leaves a lot of room open for a new stud defensive end to join Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.
Why They Shouldn't - He is the biggest project in the entire draft. To go from trying to play basketball to projected top five pick in the NFL draft before he even fully learned how to fully play the game of football is a quick turnaround. Like Jordan, he had good numbers but not great and when playing in a non power conference you should be more dominant against lesser competition. He's completely raw and risking this high of a pick on someone that needs a lot of coaching isn't always the best move. The high risk, high reward of players like this is enticing for some general managers but it scares others away. It will be interesting to see if, first of all he makes it to #5 and secondly if the Lions are willing to take him.
Chance Warmack 6-2 317 OG Alabama
Why They Should - Chance Warmack was the stud of the NFL draft combine as he was the highest graded player by NFL.com once it was all said and done. A massive man, he's paved the way for Alabama running backs Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Eddie Lacy on their way to the NFL. Warmack has proved he has NFL talent playing on those Alabama teams and if his health allows it, he's someone that will have a long career and multiple Pro Bowls. The offensive guard spot has been a big problem for Detroit for a long time and Warmack has a the ability to sure up the inside of the line quickly.
Why They Shouldn't - Offensive guards are the least important part of an offensive line and can be found later in the draft. Since 1980 only seven OG's have been drafted in the top 10 and only one in the top five, Bill Fralic #2 overall in 1985. Also, with how much the Lions like to throw the ball, led the league in passing attempts the last two seasons, and even adding Reggie Bush doesn't make it necessary to bolster the interior linemen when the outside is more important.
So here we are, the Detroit Lions sit at #5 in the draft with five options at five different positions. Now, it all depends on who is going to be available because Fisher, Jordan, and Ansah could be gone before the Lions have a chance to pick. But I definitely think they should go with Fisher. He is the most sure thing out of these players to produce at a high level and when you have a franchise quarterback like Matthew Stafford you have to protect him. Ansah has the most upside out of the group so he might get called but when drafting in the top five it's difficult to take risks. Milliner was the choice early on but seems to dropping quickly. Jordan doesn't have a natural position and might struggle finding himself in between roles. Warmack, let's face it offensive guards just shouldn't be drafted this high. And that's my rankings for these players...
1. Eric Fisher
2. Ziggy Ansah
3. Dee Milliner
4. Dion Jordan
5. Chance Warmack
All of these players have a chance to great in the NFL but like every draft there's always going to be busts near the top. Let's just hope we don't see a wide receiver picked at #5, Tavon Austin anyone?
Eric Fisher 6-7 306 OT Central Michigan
Why They Should - Eric Fisher is the #2 offensive tackle behind projected #1 overall pick Luke Joeckel. He already has the size of a NFL lineman and great foot-speed as well. Fisher was first-team All-MAC in his senior year and had a standout game in the Senior Bowl, which even further boosted his draft stock. Not only can Fisher run and pass block well, but he has the athleticism to get downfield blocks to help bust big runs. Coming out of Central Michigan University, naturally he'll be compared to Joe Staley, who has been a Pro Bowl tackle for the San Francisco 49ers the last two years. If he's anything like Staley, that bodes well for whoever drafts the fellow Chip.
Why They Shouldn't - There's not much to say negatively about Fisher as he has almost all the tools to look for in an offensive tackle. One knock on him is that he has size but maybe not the strength to handle NFL defensive ends, but that can come over time. Also, the Lions drafted another offensive tackle, Riley Reiff, at #22 overall in last years draft. However, with the departure of Gosder Cherilus to the Indianpolis Colts and the retirement of Jeff Backus (and his false starts), the Lions might have room to add another tackle.
Dee Milliner 6-0 201 CB Alabama
Why They Should - It's well-known that the Lions need a lot of help in their secondary, especially at the cornerback position. That position has been a revolving door lately and Dee Milliner would definitely provide an anchor for that part of the defense. Already being labeled as the next Darrelle Revis, Milliner ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine (fastest for his position) and shut down Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert in the BCS Championship game. He's shown that he has size and enough strength to handle bigger receivers and the speed to stay with quicker players. He was named a unanimous first-team All-American and All-SEC member last year after his junior season.
Why They Shouldn't - Milliner has decent size but is not the best tackler. Strong receivers and runningbacks are able to break through most of his tackles. He's great at defending passes, he had 22 PD's last year, but doesn't have the best hands, only two interceptions. If you are going to take a corner in the top five you better make sure they are either Pro Bowl material or have longevity for your team.
Dion Jordan 6-6 248 OLB Oregon
Why They Should - Dion Jordan has the combination of size and speed you look for in great defensive players as he has ability to rush the passer and cover tight ends down the field. Jordan's numbers from Oregon won't wow you but he was troubled with a lingering shoulder injury his senior year. Even with that he was still able to rack up 44 tackles, 10.5 for loss and five sacks. The potential for Jordan to grow is obvious and that's why he's so high on draft boards. Detroit lost Justin Durant to the Dallas Cowboys in free agency so they are looking to fill a linebacker spot to go along with Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy.
Why They Shouldn't - Jordan is looked at to be a tweener in the NFL, which is never a good label for anybody in any sport. Depending on what type of defensive scheme the team that drafts him runs, he might find himself as a defensive end or linebacker. Also, I mentioned his shoulder injury that was aggravated in the Ducks bowl game, it required surgery in the offseason and could develop into a continuous problem the longer his career goes. His numbers were good but not great at Oregon and for a this high of pick you would want to be wowed when looking at his stats, could have been the system though with how much he was in coverage.
Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah 6-5 271 DE BYU
Why They Should - A player that whose draft stock has sky rocketed since the combine and Senior Bowl has been Ziggy Ansah. In some mock drafts he's going as high as #2 overall. Coming out of BYU, the native from Ghana originally wanted to play basketball and when that didn't work he turned to the gridiron. He showed surprising quickness for a 270-pound defensive end and is similar to the New York Giants Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. In his senior year at BYU he recorded 62 tackles, 13 for a loss and 4.5 sacks. That was his only year as a full-time starter as he went from never playing the sport, to special teams player, to starter in three seasons. The improvements and learning ability over that time shows that Ansah is very coachable and applies what he's taught. Not to mention he's the freak athlete of this class. The departure of Cliff Avril to the Seattle Seahawks and decline of Kyle Vanden Bosch leaves a lot of room open for a new stud defensive end to join Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.
Why They Shouldn't - He is the biggest project in the entire draft. To go from trying to play basketball to projected top five pick in the NFL draft before he even fully learned how to fully play the game of football is a quick turnaround. Like Jordan, he had good numbers but not great and when playing in a non power conference you should be more dominant against lesser competition. He's completely raw and risking this high of a pick on someone that needs a lot of coaching isn't always the best move. The high risk, high reward of players like this is enticing for some general managers but it scares others away. It will be interesting to see if, first of all he makes it to #5 and secondly if the Lions are willing to take him.
Chance Warmack 6-2 317 OG Alabama
Why They Should - Chance Warmack was the stud of the NFL draft combine as he was the highest graded player by NFL.com once it was all said and done. A massive man, he's paved the way for Alabama running backs Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Eddie Lacy on their way to the NFL. Warmack has proved he has NFL talent playing on those Alabama teams and if his health allows it, he's someone that will have a long career and multiple Pro Bowls. The offensive guard spot has been a big problem for Detroit for a long time and Warmack has a the ability to sure up the inside of the line quickly.
Why They Shouldn't - Offensive guards are the least important part of an offensive line and can be found later in the draft. Since 1980 only seven OG's have been drafted in the top 10 and only one in the top five, Bill Fralic #2 overall in 1985. Also, with how much the Lions like to throw the ball, led the league in passing attempts the last two seasons, and even adding Reggie Bush doesn't make it necessary to bolster the interior linemen when the outside is more important.
So here we are, the Detroit Lions sit at #5 in the draft with five options at five different positions. Now, it all depends on who is going to be available because Fisher, Jordan, and Ansah could be gone before the Lions have a chance to pick. But I definitely think they should go with Fisher. He is the most sure thing out of these players to produce at a high level and when you have a franchise quarterback like Matthew Stafford you have to protect him. Ansah has the most upside out of the group so he might get called but when drafting in the top five it's difficult to take risks. Milliner was the choice early on but seems to dropping quickly. Jordan doesn't have a natural position and might struggle finding himself in between roles. Warmack, let's face it offensive guards just shouldn't be drafted this high. And that's my rankings for these players...
1. Eric Fisher
2. Ziggy Ansah
3. Dee Milliner
4. Dion Jordan
5. Chance Warmack
All of these players have a chance to great in the NFL but like every draft there's always going to be busts near the top. Let's just hope we don't see a wide receiver picked at #5, Tavon Austin anyone?
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
5 Reasons Why The Lions Are Underperforming
Last year the Detroit Lions went 10-6 making the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Naturally the expectations for this season were going to be high assuming the young team will improve if not at least stay the same. However, after ten games they are 4-6 and lost a pivotal game in which they were leading the Green Bay Packers until less than two minutes to go. Playing in the tough NFC North, the Lions are in last place again, a spot we've seen them before. With remaining games against Houston, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago (a combined 32-8) it's safe to say Detroit is out of the playoff hunt. But how did they get here? How did they come in with so much realistic hope after making the playoffs only to disappoint once again? I have 5 reasons why.
5. Poor Special Teams Play: The Detroit Lions are the only team in the NFL to give up multiple Kickoff and Punt returns for touchdowns. Oddly enough all of these returns came in back-to-back weeks against the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings with the Lions losing both games. Not only have they given up big plays, they haven't had any themselves. Detroit averages a NFL 2nd worst kickoff return average of 18.6 yards leading to bad starting field position.
4. Turnover Margin: This year Detroit has the 3rd worst turnover margin in the league at -7. With how much the Lions throw the ball you will have interceptions, but it's hard to explain eight fumbles in ten games. The biggest difference though is they aren't getting the takeaways like they did last season where they were 3rd best in differential with an opportunistic defense creating 34 turnovers. Overall the defense has played better, ranking 10th in total defense, but they haven't been able to get the ball back to the offense.
3. Matthew Stafford: In his first full season in 2011, Stafford was very impressive throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns. However, in 2012 he has been mediocre with 12 TD's and 10 interceptions. Stafford has been getting Calvin Johnson involved as he's on pace to have over 1,700 yards and his first 100 catch season, but Nate Burleson going down and the team leading the NFL in drops doesn't help Stafford's numbers, neither does his decision making.
2. Slow Starts: For whatever reason the Lions just can't seem to have their offense ready at the start of games. They are averaging only 3.1 points in the first quarter but a league best 12.1 in the fourth quarter. This is supposed to be a high powered offense but can't get rolling until late which usually means they are losing at that point. It's hard to win games when you are always playing from behind.
1. They Aren't As Good As We Thought: Detroit made the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, but how good was that team really? Yes, the Lions won ten games a season ago but zero were against teams that finished with a winning record and only one made the playoffs (Denver, who finished 8-8). The slow starts were a problem last year as well but the Lions had four second half double digit comebacks. So far this year three of their four wins have been 4th quarter comebacks, but again, you can't consistently win playing from behind. The defense this year is statistically better than 2011, but last year they had an uncharacteristically high amount of takeaways. As for the offense, Stafford was the 4th quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 5,000 yards, to ask for a repeat performance is asking a lot.
With 6 games left in the season the Lions are technically not out of the playoffs, but realistically you would have to assume so. Until they can beat quality opponents they will always have a difficult time making the post-season. Also, until they stop digging themselves early holes they will have a difficult time beating average teams. This is still a young team with a lot of growing up to do and a lot of potential. But for right now they seem headed for another losing season which reminds us of the same old Lions.
5. Poor Special Teams Play: The Detroit Lions are the only team in the NFL to give up multiple Kickoff and Punt returns for touchdowns. Oddly enough all of these returns came in back-to-back weeks against the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings with the Lions losing both games. Not only have they given up big plays, they haven't had any themselves. Detroit averages a NFL 2nd worst kickoff return average of 18.6 yards leading to bad starting field position.
4. Turnover Margin: This year Detroit has the 3rd worst turnover margin in the league at -7. With how much the Lions throw the ball you will have interceptions, but it's hard to explain eight fumbles in ten games. The biggest difference though is they aren't getting the takeaways like they did last season where they were 3rd best in differential with an opportunistic defense creating 34 turnovers. Overall the defense has played better, ranking 10th in total defense, but they haven't been able to get the ball back to the offense.
3. Matthew Stafford: In his first full season in 2011, Stafford was very impressive throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns. However, in 2012 he has been mediocre with 12 TD's and 10 interceptions. Stafford has been getting Calvin Johnson involved as he's on pace to have over 1,700 yards and his first 100 catch season, but Nate Burleson going down and the team leading the NFL in drops doesn't help Stafford's numbers, neither does his decision making.
2. Slow Starts: For whatever reason the Lions just can't seem to have their offense ready at the start of games. They are averaging only 3.1 points in the first quarter but a league best 12.1 in the fourth quarter. This is supposed to be a high powered offense but can't get rolling until late which usually means they are losing at that point. It's hard to win games when you are always playing from behind.
1. They Aren't As Good As We Thought: Detroit made the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, but how good was that team really? Yes, the Lions won ten games a season ago but zero were against teams that finished with a winning record and only one made the playoffs (Denver, who finished 8-8). The slow starts were a problem last year as well but the Lions had four second half double digit comebacks. So far this year three of their four wins have been 4th quarter comebacks, but again, you can't consistently win playing from behind. The defense this year is statistically better than 2011, but last year they had an uncharacteristically high amount of takeaways. As for the offense, Stafford was the 4th quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 5,000 yards, to ask for a repeat performance is asking a lot.
With 6 games left in the season the Lions are technically not out of the playoffs, but realistically you would have to assume so. Until they can beat quality opponents they will always have a difficult time making the post-season. Also, until they stop digging themselves early holes they will have a difficult time beating average teams. This is still a young team with a lot of growing up to do and a lot of potential. But for right now they seem headed for another losing season which reminds us of the same old Lions.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Lions and Tigers and Lines Oh My!
We are now 2 games into the World Series and the Detroit Tigers are down 0-2. With the long layoff I honestly was not too confident in us taking game 1, even with Justin Verlander on the mound, as the stats show teams that sweep a championship series are at a disadvantage against a team that wins a game 7. But honestly, can any more bad breaks go against the Tigers right now? In game 1 Pablo Sandoval had the game of his life hitting 3 homeruns so, like Tigers Manager Jim Leyland said you just have to tip your hat to him. However, the Giants scored their first 5 runs with 2 outs which included an RBI single by Marco Scutaro that bounced off third base, passed Miguel Cabrera and into left field. That play continued the 3rd inning and lead to Kung Fu Panda (Sandoval) belting a 2-run homer that busted the game open. In game 2 Doug Fister pitched great for Detroit, even after getting a line drive off the back of his head in the 2nd inning, but in the top of that inning Prince Fielder was gunned down at home trying to score from first on a Delmon Young double. This is where the questioning of began. All year Gene Lamont, Detroit's third base coach, has been scrutinized by Tigers fans on how he has managed base runners. There are plenty of time he's told runners to stop at third when he should have sent them and vice versa, this was another one of those times. Then the 7th inning came and with runners on first and second for the Giants, Gregor Blanco laid down a bunt that trickled down the foul line but stayed in play. Question 2 then arose. With no outs some feel that Leyland needed to bring the infield in to make a play at home, instead he kept them at double play depth (which they got) and gave up the first run of the game. After the game Leyland said he did that in order to not give up more than one run in the inning. Listen, this guy has been doing this a lot longer than most managers in the MLB so I will trust his reasoning and the bottom line is he got what he wanted out of a bases loaded, no out situation. I think baseball coaches can be questioned more than any other sport because it's the only sport that fans know what the coach is calling. Fans know and question everything. Why did you put that pitcher in, why did you leave that one in so long, why did you play the infield back, why did you put that pinch runner in? You don't hear that questioning in say football where the coach calls every play the offense runs. I've never heard someone say "I can't believe he called a Play Action Hitch 'n Go when he should've called a Spider 3 Y Banana". But where the Tigers are at a HUGE disadvantage are relief pitchers. Both teams have strong starting rotations, but once you get to the 7th inning or later the Giants have the edge. The guy that is supposed to be the Tigers closer, Jose Valverde, has an ERA of 30.38 this postseason and that pretty much speaks for itself. So far this has been reminiscent of the 2006 World Series, which the Tigers ended up on the losing side. In order for that to be different this year their offense is going to have to get to the starting pitching of San Fran early so that our relief pitching has the cushion to give up a few runs. Game 3 is tonight with Anibal Sanchez facing Ryan Vogelsong, I look for the Tigers offense to come alive being back home at Comerica Park to make the series 1-2.
Now onto my NFL picks for this weekend. First let me say that I'm not someone that likes to take too much time analyzing trends when it comes to sports betting. Don't get me wrong they are helpful and I do use them for guidance, but I'm not a professional and don't have enough time to make this kind of analysis that I found on covers.com...
Finally, I want to touch on my teams, Michigan and the Lions. The Wolverines face a tough test tonight traveling to Nebraska. This game is big for both teams as the winner will have the edge to play for the Big Ten title at the end of the year. I want to say that Michigan has turned the corner after their slow start and coming off an important home win against Sparty but this matchup makes me nervous. A night game in Lincoln is never an easy situation and this is the first time the Wolverines have made this trip. I want to say that I have faith in my team but being realistic I think Nebraska takes it, unfortunately. As for the Lions, I'm happy to say I have tickets to the game (I knew working where I do was good for something!). The Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson have struggled on the road (1-3) but they boast one of the leagues best defenses equipped with the biggest corners Calvin Johnson will see all year. But, with Seattle's strength in the running game and our strength in rush defense I find it hard to see them moving the ball. The question will be if the Lions can limit their turnovers and not give Seattle a short field to work with. If they are able to do that i believe Detroit will come out on top in a game they desperately need if they want to keep any playoff hopes alive.
Now onto my NFL picks for this weekend. First let me say that I'm not someone that likes to take too much time analyzing trends when it comes to sports betting. Don't get me wrong they are helpful and I do use them for guidance, but I'm not a professional and don't have enough time to make this kind of analysis that I found on covers.com...
Team A falls into a solid situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off two or more consecutive overs that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against an opponent that is allowing between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983.The first game is the San Diego Chargers (-3) at the Cleveland Browns. That was the line opener and has gone back and forth from -1 all week. One thing I like to look for are teams coming off of bye weeks, as the Chargers are doing. Combine that with an ailing Trent Richardson for Cleveland that spells trouble for the Brownies, even with Phillip Rivers having 6 turnovers his last start. Take San Diego. The next game is Washington at Pittsburgh (-4.5). The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and are giving up a ridiculous 328 passing yards per game, however they have RG3 and he alone will keep this game close until the end. Take the Skins and the points. Now let's look at Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3). With both of these teams coming off of byes they each have had 2 weeks to prepare for each other. The Falcons are the only undefeated team left in the NFL but had a close call their last game at home against the Raiders which they won 23-20. As for the Eagles, Michael Vick has not been able to hold onto the ball this year as he's turned it over 11 times in 6 games. Aside from an OT loss to the Lions, the Eagles have beaten 2 really good teams at home in the Giants and pre-injury Ravens. I look for that trend to continue as the Eagles come out on top and rid the league of unbeaten teams.
Finally, I want to touch on my teams, Michigan and the Lions. The Wolverines face a tough test tonight traveling to Nebraska. This game is big for both teams as the winner will have the edge to play for the Big Ten title at the end of the year. I want to say that Michigan has turned the corner after their slow start and coming off an important home win against Sparty but this matchup makes me nervous. A night game in Lincoln is never an easy situation and this is the first time the Wolverines have made this trip. I want to say that I have faith in my team but being realistic I think Nebraska takes it, unfortunately. As for the Lions, I'm happy to say I have tickets to the game (I knew working where I do was good for something!). The Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson have struggled on the road (1-3) but they boast one of the leagues best defenses equipped with the biggest corners Calvin Johnson will see all year. But, with Seattle's strength in the running game and our strength in rush defense I find it hard to see them moving the ball. The question will be if the Lions can limit their turnovers and not give Seattle a short field to work with. If they are able to do that i believe Detroit will come out on top in a game they desperately need if they want to keep any playoff hopes alive.
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