2014 NFL Week 5 Pick'em

Once you get in a hole it's hard to dig yourself out. We are still 6 games below .500 in the SuperContest and 7 overall. Last week we saw that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are a shell of their former selves and it doesn't get any better this week with the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals coming to town after a bye week. Also, the New Orleans Saints are having their troubles on the road as they are now 1-3 after getting trounced in Dallas 38-17. Speaking of Dallas, RB DeMarco Murray is setting the league on fire right now with 4 straight games of 100+ yards and 1 TD to open the season. This week the two games I'm looking forward to watching are the Patriots-Bengals and Cardinals-Broncos. Can the Brady Bunch bounce back against a good Cincy team? How will Arizona and Denver matchup after both coming off byes? Let's dig it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Browns +2 over TITANS

The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.

COLTS -3.5 over Ravens

Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.

Chiefs +6 over 49ERS

After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.

CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets

San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.

Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS

It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.


Other NFL in 10 or less

PACKERS -8 over Vikings     Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts

Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS     Chicago better on the road than at home

Rams +7 over EAGLES     Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling

GIANTS -4 over Falcons     Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense

SAINTS -10 over Bucs     Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs

COWBOYS -6 over Texans     Dallas rides high after New Orleans win

LIONS -7 over Bills     Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink

JAGUARS +6 over Steelers     I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles

Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS     Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown

REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks     Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-3
Season Total:  7-13

Overall
Last Week:  7-6
Season Total:  27-34

NFL Week 15 Pick'em

After a solid 12-4 last week we crept back above .500 with three weeks left.  We watched the first week of snow games and I was surprised how many points were scored.  Calvin Johnson turned into the abominable snowman but the Lions couldn't stop LeSean McCoy as he rushed for an Eagles franchise record 217 yards and Philly won 34-20 thanks to 28 fourth quarter points.  In the big game of the week, San Francisco squeaked by Seattle 19-17.  In the wildest finishes, New England scored 13 points in the final 1:01 with the help of an onside kick and a Billy Cundiff missed last second 58-yard field goal to edge the Browns.  Also, after sleep walking through most of the game the Vikings and Ravens came alive in the final 2:05 scoring five combined touchdowns, but Baltimore had the last laugh with a Marlon Brown TD reception for the 29-26 win.  I'm really excited for this week as I'll be in Las Vegas for the games.  Hopefully I'll be able to turn these picks into some real money!

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS     Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.

COLTS -5.5 over Texans     Houston doesn't care anymore.

JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills     Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.

Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS      Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.

Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS     KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.


Other NFL

Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS     Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.

Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS     Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.

49ers -5.5 over BUCS     SF rides momentum of Seattle win.

RAMS +5.5 over Saints     Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.

GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks     Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.

Bears PK over BROWNS     Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.

Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS     No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.

PANTHERS -11 over Jets     Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.

Packers +7 over COWBOYS     It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.

STEELERS +3 over Bengals     I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.

Ravens +6 over LIONS     6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  36-30-4

Overall
Last Week:  12-4
Season Total:  103-97-7

NFL Week 14 Pick'em

After a 4-11-1 record last week, for the first time all year we are under .500 overall.  Not a good feeling.  The SuperContest is still decent as we split again at 2-2-1.  We saw some teams flex their muscle as Denver overcame an early deficit to take down the Chiefs for the second time in three weeks and Seattle proved they are the team to beat in the NFC, blowing out the Saints 34-7.  We also saw Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin, not only affect the game but also the betting outcome.  Tomlin was clearly where he shouldn't be on the field, you can tell he knew what he was doing by his wry smile after the play.  He ended up getting in the way of Jacoby Jones, who would have been gone for a touchdown on a punt return.  Baltimore had to settle for a field goal and missed covering by one point.  This week we have two games that feature division rivals when New Orleans hosts Carolina and Seattle travels to San Francisco.  These are going to be the hardest to call but let's get into it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

JAGUARS +3 over Texans     Jags playing better and are at home in primetime.

Chiefs -3 over REDSKINS     KC defense too good for RG3.

STEELERS -3 over Dolphins     Big Ben is putting up points, while D coming around.

Titans +12 over BRONCOS     Too cold for Peyton, CJ2K keeps it close.

CHARGERS -3 over Giants     I have no faith in Eli on the road.


Other NFL

Vikings +7 over RAVENS     Baltimore hasn't blown too many teams out this year.

PATRIOTS -10 over Browns     Browns can't keep up with Brady.

Raiders +3 over JETS     NYJ have hit a nasty wall since beating Saints.

BENGALS -6.5 over Colts     Red Rocket goes off against bad D.

SAINTS -3 over Panthers     Saints find offense at home to stop Panthers win streak.

EAGLES -3 over Lions     Foles has offense on point, Stafford throwing too many INT's.

BUCS -2.5 over Bills     Buffalo struggles on the road, 1-4 ATS.

CARDINALS -6.5 over Rams     Arizona at home and Palmer finally looks good.

Seahawks +3 over 49ERS     Seattle rides momentum from stomping of Saints.

Falcons +3 over PACKERS     Green Bay 0-5 ATS since Rodgers went out.

BEARS PK over Cowboys     McCown clicking with Jeffery, let's see if defense shows up.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  33-28-4

Overall
Last Week:  4-11-1
Season Total:  91-93-7

NFL Week 12 Pick'em

This is not good.  We can't seem to shake this funk and get any traction.  We continue to barely hold our heads above water in the SuperContest.  But, we are still within striking distance of a decent year and with a few good weeks to end the season we could end up with some profit.  In the big game last week the Broncos beat the undefeated Chiefs 27-17.  This week all eyes will be on Denver again when they head to New England.  I also think I need to change things up this week as we'll have all games with ten words or less breakdowns.  Maybe that will bring us home the goods.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Bucs +9 over LIONS     Glennon has been getting better each week.

CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers     KC picks themselves back up after first loss.

RAMS -1.5 over Bears     Rams off bye, Cutler still out.

Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS     Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts     Don't sleep on the Cards at home.


Other NFL in 10 or less

FALCONS +7.5 over Saints     I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.

Jaguars +10 over TEXANS     Guess I'll take the points if I have to.

Vikings +4 over PACKERS     Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.

BROWNS -2 over Steelers     Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.

RAVENS -3.5 over Jets     Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.

RAIDERS +1 over Titans     Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.

GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys     Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.

PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos     Remember Patriots-Saints?  Same thing here.

49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS     Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  28-24-3

Overall
Last Week:  5-8-2
Season Total:  78-77-6

NFL Week 7 Pick'em

We tried to get back on track but we couldn't as we had our second losing week in a row.  Minnesota was torched at home as the whole team seemed to be affected by the tragic loss of Adrian Peterson's son and the Texans were also blown out at home with no excuse by the Rams 38-13.  On a good note, the Jaguars finally got their first cover against Denver in the biggest spread in history.  This week all eyes are on Peyton Manning making his return to Indianapolis to face the Colts.  Colts owner Jim Irsay has already stirred the pot saying Peyton didn't win enough rings for the franchise.  Manning had no comment for a rebuttal and I assume he will let his play do the talking.  Let's get on with it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS -6 over Texans

I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week.  Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second.  They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub.  The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game.  The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.

Bears PK over REDSKINS

Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious.  He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins.  For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks.  The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.

LIONS -2.5 over Bengals

Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards.  That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria.  The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1.  The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays.  They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012.  DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4).  Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.

GIANTS -3 over Vikings

The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week.  Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column.  I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong.  The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now.  As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son.  They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game.  The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.

JAGUARS +8 over Chargers

Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos.  This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town.  Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games.  Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD.  San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce.  The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game.  Take the home-dog in this one.


Other NFL in 10 or less

CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks     Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.

Patriots -4 over JETS     Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.

Bills +8 over DOLPHINS     Miami won't score enough to cover 8.

EAGLES -3 over Cowboys     Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.

PANTHERS -6 over Rams     Cam made me a believer last week.

FALCONS -7 over Bucs     Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.

49ers -4 over TITANS     SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.

PACKERS -10 over Browns     Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.

Ravens +2 over STEELERS     Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.

Broncos -6.5 over COLTS     Peyton purposely runs up the score.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-3
Season Total:  17-12-1

Overall
Last Week:  7-8
Season Total:  48-40-3

NFL Week 6 Pick'em

After our best week, we follow that up with our worst.  But, our SuperContest picks were great going 4-1.  There were some big story lines as well as Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a shootout for the ages, the Jets had a two-minute comeback, while Julio Jones is lost for the year, and two unbeaten teams went down.  This week everybody is talking about the largest spread in NFL history.  The Denver Broncos opened as a 28-point favorite at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  I was shocked in Week 3 when the Seahawks were almost a 20-point favorite against the Jags, but this is crazy.  College football has bigger numbers than this all the time (every Oregon game), but we just don't see spreads like this in the NFL.  Other than that there aren't too many good games outside of New Orleans-New England and Washington-Dallas.  So, let's improve on last week's poor performance.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Eagles -1.5 over BUCS

Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye.  All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles.  Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right.  Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over.  He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week.  Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense.  He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game.  Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.

VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers

A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings.  Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27.  Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs).  Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week.  Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year.  Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either.  Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down.  Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.

Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS

Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm.  He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing.  Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense.  But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles.  This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.

PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints

Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week.  Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB.  The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver.  On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year.  Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints.  It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios.  And that's why I think they will win.  The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.

SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans

Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB.  Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty.  Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home.  This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers.  The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.


Other NFL in 10 or less

Giants +7.5 over BEARS     Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?

RAVENS +2.5 over Packers     Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.

BROWNS +3 over Lions     Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.

TEXANS -7.5 over Rams     Schaub comes through with his job on the line.

JETS -1.5 over Steelers     Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.

BILLS +7 over Bengals     Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.

Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS     Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.

49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals     SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.

Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS     Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.

Colts -2 over CHARGERS     Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.


SuperContest
Last Week:  4-1
Season Total:  15-9-1

Overall
Last Week:  6-8
Season Total:  41-32-3

NFL Week 5 Pick'em

The first quarter of the season is over and we finished on our best week.  We were 11-3-1 on the day and 3-1-1 in the SuperContest.  The Seahawks and Cardinals had huge 4th quarter comebacks to avoid losses against Houston and Tampa Bay, but other than that most of our wins went surprisingly smooth.  As for the home-dogs I mentioned last week, they went 4-3 and continued their winning ways.  This week we have a lot of big name matchups which will make for some tough selections but hopefully we'll have another good week.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BROWNS -3.5 over Bills

My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season.  It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami.  It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota.  Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won.  This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover.  The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run.  Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.

Chiefs -3 over TITANS

The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype.  Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS).  But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle.  KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18.  Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot.  It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.

CARDINALS +2 over Panthers

Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that.  Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm.  And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg).  Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be.  But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road.  That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team.  The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.

Saints PK over BEARS

In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears.  New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins.  This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards.  But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games.  Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game.  However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler.  With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired.  Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler.  Take the better QB in this PICK game.

GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles

This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question.  The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively.  New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7.  But yes, I'm still picking them.  The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5.  All they need is some home cooking to get their first win.  And what better way to do it than against a rival.  Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable.  Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game.  We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.


Other NFL in 10 or less

DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens     Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.

Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS     Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.

Patriots +2 over BENGALS     Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
                                                   back.

COLTS +3 over Seahawks     Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.

Lions +7 over PACKERS     Big number for high scoring rivals.

RAIDERS +4 over Chargers     Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.

Broncos -7 over COWBOYS     Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
                                                    Julius Thomas.

Texans +6.5 over 49ERS     Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.

FALCONS -10 over Jets     Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.

SuperContest
Last Week:  3-1-1
Season Total:  11-8-1

Overall
Last Week:  11-3-1
Season Total:  35-24-3

NFL Week 4 Pick'em

Well that was painful.  After two winning weeks in the SuperContest I totally bombed and went 1-4.  I was completely wrong about the Vikings-Browns game as the Vikings are a lot worse than I expected and Josh Gordon's return to the Browns was a big difference for that team, even without T-Rich.  Also, I thought I had the Packers game wrapped up until a fumble return for a touchdown.  One thing I'm learning as I pick every game and take notes is how great home field advantage is in the NFL.  We all know that playing at home helps but last week the home team went 10-5-1 ATS.  And for the season, home underdogs are 8-4.  That's a big number considering that home-dogs usually occur when top ten teams are visitors.  This week we have 7 home-dogs (excluding the Steelers-Vikings being played in London) so we will get an even better feel for the home field advantage lesser teams receive against better opponents.  Hopefully Week 4 goes a little smoother with that in mind.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS -4 over Giants

Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm.  Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?).  On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week.  What's happened to Eli and this defense?  And don't even get me started on David Wilson.  He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts.  The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.

Seahawks -3 over TEXANS

Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't.  It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up.  All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL.  It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee.  Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC.  The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.

TITANS -3.5 over Jets

Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record.  If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous.  The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20.  These teams are very similar in their style.  Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over.  In situations like this I like to ride the home team.  Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs.  Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.

CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys

Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour.  Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start.  He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT.  Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT.  This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.

Bears +3 over LIONS

It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car.  That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing.  The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson.  Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell.  But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever.  They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses).  Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0.  This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.


Other NFL in 10 or less

RAMS +3 over 49ers     Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.

BILLS +3.5 over Ravens     Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.

BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals     Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.

Colts -8 over JAGUARS     Can't get myself to take the Jags again.

Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS     Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.

Vikings +2 over Steelers     Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.

Redskins -3 over RAIDERS     If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.

BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles     More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.

FALCONS -2 over Patriots     Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.

SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins     Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.

SuperContest
Last Week:  1-4
Season Total:  8-7

Overall
Last Week:  7-8-1
Season Total:  24-21-2

NFL Week 1 Pick'em

The NFL season kicked off yesterday with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos disposing of the defending champion Baltimore Ravens 49-27.  I was in Las Vegas for the game and there is nothing like being in a casino sports book during the NFL.  Every week squares and sharps lineup to test their football knowledge against the spreads trying to show they know more than the bookmakers.  The biggest draw for average joes and professionals to compete against the odds is the SuperContest at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.

The SuperContest is to sports gamblers as the World Series of Poker is to poker players.  There is a $1,500 entry fee and each week you pick 5 NFL games against the spread.  Last year was its biggest with 745 entries and over $1.1 million in the prize pool with the winner receiving $447,000.  I've always been fascinated with the world of sports betting, but since I'm broke I can't enter the SuperContest.  So I'm going to pick my 5 NFL games on here as well as the rest of the games each week.  I'll track my stats and see if I can reach the 60% mark by the end of the season, which is what players usually need to hit to get in the money.  I will use the lines I find on SportsMemo's live odds page, because they show up to the minute odds for the Las Vegas Hilton.  Also, keep in mind that when it comes to sports betting I'm like Remo Gaggi, a degenerate that only gets it right if Sam 'Ace' Rothstein is making my plays.  So without further ado...

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS

With Carson Palmer joining the Cardinals this offseason, this offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at the helm and the team boasting three 1,000 yard receivers.  Now, I don't think this team will make the Super Bowl like in 2008 or even the playoffs.  But Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd will put up big numbers in Bruce Arians pass happy offense.  Their defense is solid as well and St. Louis will have a tough time keeping up on the points.

BROWNS -1 over Dolphins

I'm not buying into all the hype around the Miami Dolphins this year.  Ryan Tannehill showed me nothing last season (12 TDs and 13 INTs) for me to believe in his drastic improvement.  Also, I don't see Lamar Miller as a solid starting RB in the NFL and Mike Wallace will be a flop.  I'm not sold on the Browns by any means either, but one guy I am high on is Trent Richardson.  The Dolphins will struggle to stop T-Rich and also cover TE Jordan Cameron (huge fantasy sleeper). 

Chiefs -3.5 over JAGUARS

The Kansas City Chiefs will be one the most improved teams in 2013 and it's all because of Alex Smith (I never thought I'd say that).  But the thing about Smith is that he won't wow you with stats but he usually won't lose a game for you either.  And that's exactly what the Chiefs need.  With a great back like Jamaal Charles and a defense that had three Pro-Bowlers a year ago (one at each level), this team will challenge for the playoffs.  On the other hand, Jacksonville will challenge for worst team in the league.

LIONS -5 over Vikings

Oh, our favorite Detroit Lions.  This is really hard to put confidence in this game because every time we start to have confidence with the Lions they quickly disappoint us, usually painfully.  But I think the addition of Reggie Bush is really big, and not even for the running game, but the passing attack.  Last year Matthew Stafford threw the ball a NFL record 727 times.  Bush will work wonders on screens and in the flats (top-5 RB in PPR leagues).  As for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league but that happens to be the Lions strong suit on defense.  Peterson will go off, but not enough to cover for the Vikes.

COWBOYS -3.5 over Giants

In a classic rivalry like Cowboys-Giants it's tough to predict a winner because anything can happen.  However, the Giants have won every game (4) at Jerry Jones' new massive stadium, which tells me the Cowboys are due to put an end to that streak.  Tony Romo I feel is fit to have a solid year and with how well Dez Bryant played down the stretch in 2012, this offense will put up points.  It will come down to their defense stopping Eli Manning.  The Giants have their share of solid receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and an emerging Rueben Randle but Dallas will get just enough out of their D to prevail.


Other NFL in 10 or less

Patriots -10 over BILLS      Buffalo is another team in contention for worst in NFL.

Titans +7 over STEELERS      Pittsburgh will struggle to score enough to cover 7.

SAINTS -3 over Falcons      In a shootout you always go with the home favorite.

Bucs -3.5 over JETS      Jets don't have a quarterback, Bucs have a muscle hamster.

BEARS -3 over Bengals      Bears defense will be too much.

Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS      Seattle shows why they are the early Super Bowl favorite.

Raiders +10 over COLTS      Look for the Colts to have a down year.

49ERS -4.5 over Packers      San Fran's defense will be the difference.

REDSKINS -4 over Eagles      College coaches struggle in the NFL until proven otherwise.

Texans -5 over CHARGERS      Chargers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Houston.