2014 NFL Week 4 Pick'em

The Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and Denver will be one of the best games this year. Broncos' QB Peyton Manning's late 4th quarter comeback down 8 with less than a minute left and no timeouts to tie the game at 20 was nothing less than spectacular. However, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson got the ball to start overtime and never let Peyton get his hands on it. Wilson led Seattle 80 yards in 5:46 to score the game winning touchdown capped off by a Marshawn Lynch 6 yard TD run. In OT, Wilson kept the drive alive with legs scrambling on 3rd down twice to get the first. He now has a 7-0 combined record against Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. The big surprise was my Detroit Lions defense shutting down Rodgers and the Packers. The defense line for Detroit was outstanding keeping pressure on Rodgers allowing only 162 yards passing yards. Week 3 finally brought us our first winning week overall but still a loss for the SuperContest. This week the two big games to keep your eye on are the Packers at Bears and Saints at Cowboys. Let's do it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

REDSKINS -3 over Giants

I know they didn't win the game, but how about the performance Kirk Cousins had last week. He threw for 427 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 INT in a 37-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins now faces a Giants defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense. We all know Eli Manning has been struggling but one thing New York has going for them is newly acquired RB Rashad Jennings who has the 3rd most rushing yards in the NFL with 286. Unfortunately for Jennings he's going up against the 3rd best rushing defense in Washington that is only giving up 64.7 yards per game. Not to mention, the home teams in Thursday night games are 3-0 with a 118-36 point differential.

BEARS +2 over Packers

After winning 2 straight road games the Chicago Bears head home to take on division rival Green Bay. These Bears have been giving up a lot of yards but are tied for the league lead in takeaways (8) and INTs (6). QB Jay Cutler has also been playing well throwing for 8 TDs and only 2 INTs while spreading the ball to WRs Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, TE Martellus Bennett, and RB Matt Forte. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers has struggled mightily on the road throwing for less than 200 yards at Seattle and at Detroit. And guess what...this is another road game. RB Eddie Lacy is also having a bad year for Green Bay rushing for only 113 yards in 3 games. The Packers are having a hard time scoring and a hard time stoping other teams from scoring giving up 26.3 point per game. The Chicago Bears are looking to get revenge after Green Bay kept them out of the playoffs last year with the defense losing Randall Cobb for the game-winning touchdown in the last minute.

RAVENS -3 over Panthers

For 13 years WR Steve Smith was the leader of the Carolina Panthers recording 7 season with 1,000+ receiving yards but had a down year in 2013 with only 745 yards. Now with the Baltimore Ravens, Smith has been rejuvenated. He already has 290 yards in 3 games and has quickly become QB Joe Flacco's favorite target. As for Smith's replacement in Carolina, rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin has been a pleasant surprise with 253 yards and 2 TDs. Where the Panthers have had trouble is the ground game, they are averaging 72.3 yards which is good for 29th in the NFL. Since Cam Newton was drafted by Carolina in 2011, the Panthers have never ranked lower than 11th. We expected the Ravens to struggle with their rushing attack without RB Ray Rice but the committee of Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, and Lorenzo Taliaferro has the Ravens currently ranked 8th in the NFL in rushing. Baltimore will get it done at home against a tough Carolina defense.

Falcons -2.5 over VIKINGS

Without RB Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings have failed to score double digits in 2 straight games. The Flacons don't have the best defense in the league but are currently leading the NFL in total offense (455) and points per game (34.3). WR Julio Jones seems to be fully recovered from last years season ending injury as he has 365 receiving yards which also leads the league. Minnesota will be starting rookie 1st rounder QB Teddy Bridgewater for the first time as QB Matt Cassel suffered a broken foot against the Saints in Week 2 and is out for the year. Many experts thought Bridgewater was the most NFL ready quarterback in the 2013 draft and the Vikings are hoping they are correct. However, he won't be able to put up enough points in this one to keep up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons high powered offense.

COWBOYS +3 over Saints

This game will be your classic shootout. Both teams can score and both teams have problems on defense. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray has been a beast running for over 100 yards and scoring 1 touchdown in each of his first 3 games. The Saints running game actually looked good the first 2 weeks with RB Mark Ingram averaging 6.0 yards per carry but he went down with a fractured hand and New Orleans went down to 3.4 yards per carry in Week 3. Saints QB Drew Brees has been good but not great so far and Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been his normal up and down self but has improved each week. In a game with good offense and no defense, it's always smart to go with the home team.

Other NFL in 10 or less

RAIDERS +3.5 over Dolphins in London     London keeps getting screwed with bad games

TEXANS -3 over Bills     If Foster plays Houston will control the game

COLTS -7.5 over Titans     Indy found its stride against Jax and Luck is rolling

Lions -1.5 over JETS     Lions defense confident after shutting down GB

STEELERS -7.5 over Bucs     Can't take the Bucs until they show me something

Jaguars +13 over CHARGERS     Blake Bortles keeps it close

Eagles +5.5 over 49ERS     49ers D struggling and Philly can score

CHIEFS +3.5 over Patriots     Don't know what's up with Brady, take Home/Dog

SuperContest
Last Week:  2-3
Season Total:  5-10

Overall
Last Week:  9-7
Season Total:  20-28

NFL Week 17 Pick'em

Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money.  Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it.  The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick.  However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason.  For the last time, let's get it.


SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Packers -3 over BEARS     Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.

Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS    Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.

STEELERS -7 over Browns     Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.

PATRIOTS -7 over Bills     NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.

VIKINGS PK over Lions     Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.


Other NFL 

FALCONS +6 over Panthers     Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.

TITANS -7 over Texans     Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.

Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS     Defending champs won't go down easy.

COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars     Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.

COWBOYS +7 over Eagles     Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.

Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS     Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.

SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs     Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.

Broncos -10 over RAIDERS     Peyton setting records, will run up the score.

CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers     Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.

Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS     KC playing backups, will still cover.

SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams     Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.


SuperContest
Last Week:  4-1
Season Total:  43-33-4

Overall
Last Week:  10-5-1
Season Total:  124-107-8

NFL Week 16 Pick'em

Our second strong week in a row has a in position to finish the year with a little bit of extra money in our pockets.  The trip to Las Vegas was a little bit of a success but it was horrible watching my Detroit Lions lose on a 61-yard FG to the Ravens 18-16.  The Cowboys had their end of the year meltdown as well with the Packers rallying from 23-points down to win 37-36.  Arizona almost gave me a heart attack giving up 17 points in the final 3:12 to the Titans but pulled it out in OT 37-34.  And I can't forget to mention the day Jamaal Charles had combining for 215 yards and five touchdowns propelling many fantasy teams in the finals and bouncing two of my teams out of the playoffs.  We still haven't had a losing SuperContest week since Week 7 but we haven't gained much ground as we've been going back and forth between 3-2 and 2-2-1.  This week there are many teams that are trying to stay in the playoff hunt.  No teams in the NFC have clinched their division yet and three teams are still competing in the NFC North.  Time to get in the holiday spirit and get some extra cash for more presents!

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

PANTHERS -3 over Saints     Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.

RAMS -3.5 over Bucs     Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.

Browns +2 over JETS     Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.

Steelers +1 over PACKERS     Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.

Giants +9 over LIONS     Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.


Other NFL

Dolphins -3 over BILLS     Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.

REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys     Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.

EAGLES -3 over Bears     Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.

CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts     KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.

BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings     Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.

Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS     Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.

JAGUARS +4 over Titans     Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.

Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS     Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.

Raiders +10 over CHARGERS     Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.

Patriots PK over RAVENS     Ravens not as good as record shows.

49ERS -13.5 over Falcons     Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  39-32-4

Overall
Last Week:  11-5
Season Total:  114-102-7

NFL Week 7 Pick'em

We tried to get back on track but we couldn't as we had our second losing week in a row.  Minnesota was torched at home as the whole team seemed to be affected by the tragic loss of Adrian Peterson's son and the Texans were also blown out at home with no excuse by the Rams 38-13.  On a good note, the Jaguars finally got their first cover against Denver in the biggest spread in history.  This week all eyes are on Peyton Manning making his return to Indianapolis to face the Colts.  Colts owner Jim Irsay has already stirred the pot saying Peyton didn't win enough rings for the franchise.  Manning had no comment for a rebuttal and I assume he will let his play do the talking.  Let's get on with it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS -6 over Texans

I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week.  Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second.  They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub.  The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game.  The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.

Bears PK over REDSKINS

Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious.  He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins.  For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks.  The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.

LIONS -2.5 over Bengals

Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards.  That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria.  The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1.  The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays.  They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012.  DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4).  Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.

GIANTS -3 over Vikings

The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week.  Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column.  I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong.  The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now.  As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son.  They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game.  The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.

JAGUARS +8 over Chargers

Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos.  This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town.  Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games.  Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD.  San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce.  The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game.  Take the home-dog in this one.


Other NFL in 10 or less

CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks     Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.

Patriots -4 over JETS     Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.

Bills +8 over DOLPHINS     Miami won't score enough to cover 8.

EAGLES -3 over Cowboys     Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.

PANTHERS -6 over Rams     Cam made me a believer last week.

FALCONS -7 over Bucs     Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.

49ers -4 over TITANS     SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.

PACKERS -10 over Browns     Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.

Ravens +2 over STEELERS     Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.

Broncos -6.5 over COLTS     Peyton purposely runs up the score.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-3
Season Total:  17-12-1

Overall
Last Week:  7-8
Season Total:  48-40-3

NFL Week 5 Pick'em

The first quarter of the season is over and we finished on our best week.  We were 11-3-1 on the day and 3-1-1 in the SuperContest.  The Seahawks and Cardinals had huge 4th quarter comebacks to avoid losses against Houston and Tampa Bay, but other than that most of our wins went surprisingly smooth.  As for the home-dogs I mentioned last week, they went 4-3 and continued their winning ways.  This week we have a lot of big name matchups which will make for some tough selections but hopefully we'll have another good week.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BROWNS -3.5 over Bills

My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season.  It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami.  It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota.  Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won.  This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover.  The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run.  Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.

Chiefs -3 over TITANS

The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype.  Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS).  But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle.  KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18.  Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot.  It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.

CARDINALS +2 over Panthers

Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that.  Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm.  And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg).  Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be.  But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road.  That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team.  The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.

Saints PK over BEARS

In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears.  New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins.  This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards.  But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games.  Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game.  However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler.  With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired.  Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler.  Take the better QB in this PICK game.

GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles

This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question.  The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively.  New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7.  But yes, I'm still picking them.  The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5.  All they need is some home cooking to get their first win.  And what better way to do it than against a rival.  Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable.  Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game.  We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.


Other NFL in 10 or less

DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens     Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.

Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS     Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.

Patriots +2 over BENGALS     Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
                                                   back.

COLTS +3 over Seahawks     Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.

Lions +7 over PACKERS     Big number for high scoring rivals.

RAIDERS +4 over Chargers     Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.

Broncos -7 over COWBOYS     Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
                                                    Julius Thomas.

Texans +6.5 over 49ERS     Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.

FALCONS -10 over Jets     Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.

SuperContest
Last Week:  3-1-1
Season Total:  11-8-1

Overall
Last Week:  11-3-1
Season Total:  35-24-3

NFL Week 4 Pick'em

Well that was painful.  After two winning weeks in the SuperContest I totally bombed and went 1-4.  I was completely wrong about the Vikings-Browns game as the Vikings are a lot worse than I expected and Josh Gordon's return to the Browns was a big difference for that team, even without T-Rich.  Also, I thought I had the Packers game wrapped up until a fumble return for a touchdown.  One thing I'm learning as I pick every game and take notes is how great home field advantage is in the NFL.  We all know that playing at home helps but last week the home team went 10-5-1 ATS.  And for the season, home underdogs are 8-4.  That's a big number considering that home-dogs usually occur when top ten teams are visitors.  This week we have 7 home-dogs (excluding the Steelers-Vikings being played in London) so we will get an even better feel for the home field advantage lesser teams receive against better opponents.  Hopefully Week 4 goes a little smoother with that in mind.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS -4 over Giants

Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm.  Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?).  On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week.  What's happened to Eli and this defense?  And don't even get me started on David Wilson.  He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts.  The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.

Seahawks -3 over TEXANS

Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't.  It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up.  All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL.  It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee.  Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC.  The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.

TITANS -3.5 over Jets

Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record.  If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous.  The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20.  These teams are very similar in their style.  Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over.  In situations like this I like to ride the home team.  Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs.  Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.

CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys

Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour.  Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start.  He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT.  Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT.  This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.

Bears +3 over LIONS

It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car.  That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing.  The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson.  Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell.  But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever.  They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses).  Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0.  This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.


Other NFL in 10 or less

RAMS +3 over 49ers     Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.

BILLS +3.5 over Ravens     Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.

BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals     Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.

Colts -8 over JAGUARS     Can't get myself to take the Jags again.

Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS     Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.

Vikings +2 over Steelers     Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.

Redskins -3 over RAIDERS     If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.

BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles     More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.

FALCONS -2 over Patriots     Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.

SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins     Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.

SuperContest
Last Week:  1-4
Season Total:  8-7

Overall
Last Week:  7-8-1
Season Total:  24-21-2