After four long weeks we finally had a winning week in the SuperContest with a 4-1 record in Week 5. We saw some great games last week with the Browns rallying from 25 down on the road to beat the Titans, two overtime games where New Orleans and Dallas came out on top, and my Detroit Lions finding a new way to lose. The Lions K Alex Henery missed 3 FGs including a 50-yarder with 21 seconds left which in turn lead to the Bills K Dan Carpenter hitting a GW 58-yard FG of his own. Henery has since been cut and Detroit signed former Broncos K Matt Prater, which makes it 3 kickers in 6 weeks. This week is very interesting betting wise with 8 home/dogs out of 15 games. The means small lines and tougher games pick. But we gotta do, what we gotta do.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -1.5 over Steelers
After their huge comeback against the Titans last week, Cleveland is looking to get on the plus side of .500 in a big rivalry game. RB Ben Tate saw his first action since a Week 1 injury and played great rushing for 124 yards on 24 carries. This is a good sign for a team usually known for its defense but who is struggling on that side of the ball this year. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in total defense after being in the top 10 in 2013. However, they've made up for it with the play of QB Brian Hoyer. In Week 1 Hoyer almost lead the Browns back from a 24-point half time deficit against these Steelers only to see Pittsburgh win on a last second FG. This time the Browns won't get down so big, so early and take the win.
FALCONS -3 over Bears
Atlanta can't wait to get back home. After going winless on their two game road trip the Falcons will look to get back on track against the Bears. Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be the biggest beneficiary of returning to the Georgia Dome as he has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INTs at home and 5 TDs with 6 INTs on the road. As for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, who was recently compared to retired QB Jeff George by Brian Billick on "Mike and Mike", threw 2 bad interceptions last week against the Panthers and lost the game down the stretch 31-24. Atlanta WR Devin Hester will also be looking to show out against his old team the same way Steve Smith did in Week 3 against Carolina. Atlanta takes this one.
Patriots -3 over BILLS
Note to self...don't bet against Brady's Pats as home/dogs. Last week I doubted New England, and Brady, and it cost me a 5-0 SC record. I've learned my lesson and the rest of the league took notice that the Pats aren't finished yet. New England waxed the then undefeated Bengals 43-17 and will now take on a 3-2 Bills team that barely escaped a loss in Detroit. This is a big game for both teams as they are tied atop the AFC East and that's why I see the Pats taking it. They knew last week it was a turning point in the season if they won and now that they have they take control on their division.
Cowboys +8 over SEAHAWKS
The Dallas Cowboys are the surprise team of the NFL with a 4-1 record and DeMarco Murray is the surprise player leading the league in rushing. Don't get me wrong, Seattle is the better team but Dallas' running game is what will keep it close. The Seahawks lead league in rushing defense but are yet to face a formidable attack. Their first four game have been against teams ranked in the bottom 20 in rushing. Seattle's defense has been good but not great this season as they've only forced 3 turnovers thus far, although Dallas is one of the more turnover prone teams (but so was Washington who had 0 TOs last week). Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also been a better game manager as of late with an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Seattle wins but Dallas covers.
RAMS +3.5 over 49ers Austin Davis putting up numbers
St. Louis has had a rough season even before it actually started with QB Sam Bradford going down for the year and their defense not living up to their expectations. But ever since QB Austin Davis has been inserted in to the starting lineup in Week 2 they have been competitive and are 2-1 ATS. In his last two games Davis has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners are 3-2 overall but only 1-4 ATS. Their defense ranks 2nd in the league and all the signs are pointing to San Francisco taking this game but they have been keeping their opponents within striking distance.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TEXANS Texans don't have D to stop Luck
JETS +10 over Broncos Only because of double digit home/dog
TITANS -5 over Jaguars Even if Whitehurst starts since Jags are embarrassing
DOLPHINS +3.5 over Packers Miami decent at home and defense is in top 10
Lions -1.5 over VIKINGS Lions finally have a kicker, can now win close games
Panthers +6.5 over BENGALS No AJ Green limits Cincy's scoring ability
Ravens -3 over BUCS Despite last week, Ravens offense playing well
RAIDERS +7 over Chargers New coach, 2 weeks rest, rivarly, SD first ATS loss
Redskins +3.5 over CARDINALS Logan Thomas will struggle too much for Arizona
EAGLES -3 over Giants Gonna be a shootout and no Jennings for NYG
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 11-14
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 34-42
Showing posts with label New England Patriots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New England Patriots. Show all posts
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
2014 NFL Week 5 Pick'em
Once you get in a hole it's hard to dig yourself out. We are still 6 games below .500 in the SuperContest and 7 overall. Last week we saw that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are a shell of their former selves and it doesn't get any better this week with the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals coming to town after a bye week. Also, the New Orleans Saints are having their troubles on the road as they are now 1-3 after getting trounced in Dallas 38-17. Speaking of Dallas, RB DeMarco Murray is setting the league on fire right now with 4 straight games of 100+ yards and 1 TD to open the season. This week the two games I'm looking forward to watching are the Patriots-Bengals and Cardinals-Broncos. Can the Brady Bunch bounce back against a good Cincy team? How will Arizona and Denver matchup after both coming off byes? Let's dig it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
Friday, January 3, 2014
NFL Week 17 Pick'em
Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money. Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it. The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick. However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason. For the last time, let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
Thursday, December 19, 2013
NFL Week 15 Pick'em
After a solid 12-4 last week we crept back above .500 with three weeks left. We watched the first week of snow games and I was surprised how many points were scored. Calvin Johnson turned into the abominable snowman but the Lions couldn't stop LeSean McCoy as he rushed for an Eagles franchise record 217 yards and Philly won 34-20 thanks to 28 fourth quarter points. In the big game of the week, San Francisco squeaked by Seattle 19-17. In the wildest finishes, New England scored 13 points in the final 1:01 with the help of an onside kick and a Billy Cundiff missed last second 58-yard field goal to edge the Browns. Also, after sleep walking through most of the game the Vikings and Ravens came alive in the final 2:05 scoring five combined touchdowns, but Baltimore had the last laugh with a Marlon Brown TD reception for the 29-26 win. I'm really excited for this week as I'll be in Las Vegas for the games. Hopefully I'll be able to turn these picks into some real money!
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.
COLTS -5.5 over Texans Houston doesn't care anymore.
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.
Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.
Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.
Other NFL
Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.
Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.
49ers -5.5 over BUCS SF rides momentum of Seattle win.
RAMS +5.5 over Saints Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.
GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.
Bears PK over BROWNS Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.
Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.
PANTHERS -11 over Jets Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.
Packers +7 over COWBOYS It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.
STEELERS +3 over Bengals I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.
Ravens +6 over LIONS 6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 36-30-4
Overall
Last Week: 12-4
Season Total: 103-97-7
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.
COLTS -5.5 over Texans Houston doesn't care anymore.
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.
Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.
Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.
Other NFL
Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.
Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.
49ers -5.5 over BUCS SF rides momentum of Seattle win.
RAMS +5.5 over Saints Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.
GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.
Bears PK over BROWNS Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.
Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.
PANTHERS -11 over Jets Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.
Packers +7 over COWBOYS It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.
STEELERS +3 over Bengals I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.
Ravens +6 over LIONS 6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 36-30-4
Overall
Last Week: 12-4
Season Total: 103-97-7
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
2013 NFL Midseason Totals
With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out. The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets. They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line. We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year. But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid. There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 8 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Thursday, October 24, 2013
NFL Week 8 Pick'em
Well, it looks like we're going the wrong way. Even the SuperContest numbers took a big hit going 1-4. All I can say is I'm glad I'm not using real money. The Bears, Lions and Chiefs all were games that didn't go our way at the end and could have made our final numbers look a little different if they did. Not only did our picks go down last week, but so did many key players (Doug Martin and Reggie Wayne to name a few). Nonetheless, on to Week 8! A lot of big numbers this week as 10 of the 13 games are hovering around a touchdown or more. We have another game being played in London, this time it's San Francisco and Jacksonville. The NFL really gave them some gems to watch this year. And other than the Cowboys-Lions, there isn't one game I will make a point to watch this weekend. But, we still have to watch our fantasy players and make some picks. So, here we go.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS
No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay. I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though. But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance. He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way. Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson. Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine. Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help. In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.
RAIDERS +3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games. The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's. These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired. I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.
Panthers -6 over BUCS
Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game. The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game. Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm. The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles. Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely. Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield. Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's. But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown. Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.
Seahawks -11 over RAMS
Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team. Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL. They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro. The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers. Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.
PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins
I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in. But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook. I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough. But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards. Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers. Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year. Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of. Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.
Other NFL in 10 or less
49ers -16.5 over Jaguars Not taking the Jags again until they cover.
LIONS -3 over Cowboys No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.
Giants +6 over EAGLES First win inspires Giants to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.
Bills +12 over SAINTS Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.
BRONCOS -13 over Redskins Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.
Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 18-16-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-9
Season Total: 54-49-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS
No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay. I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though. But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance. He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way. Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson. Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine. Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help. In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.
RAIDERS +3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games. The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's. These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired. I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.
Panthers -6 over BUCS
Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game. The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game. Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm. The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles. Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely. Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield. Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's. But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown. Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.
Seahawks -11 over RAMS
Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team. Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL. They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro. The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers. Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.
PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins
I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in. But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook. I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough. But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards. Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers. Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year. Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of. Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.
Other NFL in 10 or less
49ers -16.5 over Jaguars Not taking the Jags again until they cover.
LIONS -3 over Cowboys No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.
Giants +6 over EAGLES First win inspires Giants to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.
Bills +12 over SAINTS Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.
BRONCOS -13 over Redskins Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.
Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 18-16-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-9
Season Total: 54-49-3
Friday, October 11, 2013
NFL Week 6 Pick'em
After our best week, we follow that up with our worst. But, our SuperContest picks were great going 4-1. There were some big story lines as well as Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a shootout for the ages, the Jets had a two-minute comeback, while Julio Jones is lost for the year, and two unbeaten teams went down. This week everybody is talking about the largest spread in NFL history. The Denver Broncos opened as a 28-point favorite at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was shocked in Week 3 when the Seahawks were almost a 20-point favorite against the Jags, but this is crazy. College football has bigger numbers than this all the time (every Oregon game), but we just don't see spreads like this in the NFL. Other than that there aren't too many good games outside of New Orleans-New England and Washington-Dallas. So, let's improve on last week's poor performance.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
Thursday, September 12, 2013
NFL Week 2 Pick'em
Week 1 looked fantastic going into the Monday night games, but finishing 0-2 turned it into just a good weekend. Overall 9-5 isn't too bad to start with and neither is 4-1 for the SuperContest. We saw a lot of players go off (Peyton Manning) and a few teams really disappoint (Pittsburgh Steelers). The New England Patriots and Houston Texans had a hard time winning on the road and didn't cover. Chip Kelly's offense in Philadelphia looked really scary in Washington with Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy, but Robert Griffin III seemed rusty coming off knee surgery. Here's what Week 2 looks like.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Jets +12 over PATRIOTS
New England struggled mightily last week playing at Buffalo. The receiving core looked out of place all game and they were even running into each other on routes. That was until the last drive when Tom Brady went 6-6 with Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen that lead to the game winning field goal. This week Amendola (groin) and Vereen (wrist) are both out. The Jets barely squeaked by Tampa Bay at home 18-17 on a last second FG of their own. They aren't a team I'm very fond of this year, but the Pats are vulnerable. New England has a lot of injury problems as well as chemistry issues and I think 12 is too much to cover in this rivalry.
BEARS -6 over Vikings
The Vikings and Adrian Peterson started off great with a 78-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage against the Detroit Lions. After that Peterson only managed 15 yards on the ground. Chicago has a very solid defense as well and are coming off a big home win over Cincinnati. The Bears will be able to slow down AP just enough and put enough points on the board that Christian Ponder will have to throw. If that happens, the Bears secondary will be feasting on INTs all day. Minnesota made the playoffs a year ago but will finish last in the NFC North this year.
Saints -3 over BUCS
One of the most disappointing losses went to Tampa Bay last week. A late hit on Jets QB Geno Smith put New York in position for the game winning field goal. I didn't expect much this year from TB outside of Doug Martin but he had a rough go as well with only 65 yards at 2.7 per carry. New Orleans on the other hand played well taking down Atlanta in the return of Sean Payton. The Saints had one of the worst defenses in the league last year but held the Falcons to only 17 points. If that defense shows up again this week it will be a long day for Tampa Bay.
SEAHAWKS -3 over 49ers
The top two teams in many power rankings will go head to head in the Sunday night game. San Francisco is coming off a huge win over the Packers 34-28 and Colin Kaepernick showed he's legit. Seattle had a tough time on the east coast against Carolina but came out with a win 12-7. The Seahawks were probably looking to the 49ers and their play suffered against the Panthers but that won't happen this week. Seattle wants to prove they are not only the best team in the NFC West but also the best team in the league. They have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and their fans will be ready for the home opener.
RAIDERS -5.5 over Jaguars
From two of the best teams, to two of the worst teams in the league. Terrelle Pryor almost led Oakland to one of the biggest upsets last week but fell short to the Colts 21-17. As for Jacksonville, they only managed to score 2 points off a blocked punt that went out of the end zone against the Chiefs. The Jaguars have no offense whatsoever as teams will load up the box to stop Maurice Jones-Drew because they have two of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Blaine Gabbert is out with a cut on his throwing hand, which means Chad Henne will get the start. The Raiders have a nice running game with Darren McFadden (when healthy) and now Pryor. Their defense isn't great but the Jags offense will look just as bad this week and have a difficult time to score enough to cover.
Other NFL in 10 or less
EAGLES -7.5 over Chargers West coast teams struggle in 1:00pm east coast games.
Browns +6.5 over RAVENS Browns always keep close with Baltimore, 7 would be better.
TEXANS -9 over Titans Houston will find its offensive legs at home.
Dolphins +3 over COLTS Miami proved me wrong last week. Take them this week.
BILLS +3 over Panthers Hard to pass up home teams with points.
ATLANTA -6.5 over Rams Too much firepower in the Georgia Dome.
Redskins +7.5 over PACKERS RG3 came to life late last week. Should be shootout.
CHIEFS -3 over Cowboys I'm high on the Chiefs this year.
CARDINALS +1.5 over Lions Arizona won 38-10 last year and both teams have improved.
GIANTS +4.5 over Broncos Eli always plays big in big games.
BENGALS -7 over Steelers Steelers looked terrible and lost standouts Pouncey and Foote.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 4-1
Overall
Last Week: 9-5-1
Season Total: 9-5-1
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Jets +12 over PATRIOTS
New England struggled mightily last week playing at Buffalo. The receiving core looked out of place all game and they were even running into each other on routes. That was until the last drive when Tom Brady went 6-6 with Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen that lead to the game winning field goal. This week Amendola (groin) and Vereen (wrist) are both out. The Jets barely squeaked by Tampa Bay at home 18-17 on a last second FG of their own. They aren't a team I'm very fond of this year, but the Pats are vulnerable. New England has a lot of injury problems as well as chemistry issues and I think 12 is too much to cover in this rivalry.
BEARS -6 over Vikings
The Vikings and Adrian Peterson started off great with a 78-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage against the Detroit Lions. After that Peterson only managed 15 yards on the ground. Chicago has a very solid defense as well and are coming off a big home win over Cincinnati. The Bears will be able to slow down AP just enough and put enough points on the board that Christian Ponder will have to throw. If that happens, the Bears secondary will be feasting on INTs all day. Minnesota made the playoffs a year ago but will finish last in the NFC North this year.
Saints -3 over BUCS
One of the most disappointing losses went to Tampa Bay last week. A late hit on Jets QB Geno Smith put New York in position for the game winning field goal. I didn't expect much this year from TB outside of Doug Martin but he had a rough go as well with only 65 yards at 2.7 per carry. New Orleans on the other hand played well taking down Atlanta in the return of Sean Payton. The Saints had one of the worst defenses in the league last year but held the Falcons to only 17 points. If that defense shows up again this week it will be a long day for Tampa Bay.
SEAHAWKS -3 over 49ers
The top two teams in many power rankings will go head to head in the Sunday night game. San Francisco is coming off a huge win over the Packers 34-28 and Colin Kaepernick showed he's legit. Seattle had a tough time on the east coast against Carolina but came out with a win 12-7. The Seahawks were probably looking to the 49ers and their play suffered against the Panthers but that won't happen this week. Seattle wants to prove they are not only the best team in the NFC West but also the best team in the league. They have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and their fans will be ready for the home opener.
RAIDERS -5.5 over Jaguars
From two of the best teams, to two of the worst teams in the league. Terrelle Pryor almost led Oakland to one of the biggest upsets last week but fell short to the Colts 21-17. As for Jacksonville, they only managed to score 2 points off a blocked punt that went out of the end zone against the Chiefs. The Jaguars have no offense whatsoever as teams will load up the box to stop Maurice Jones-Drew because they have two of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Blaine Gabbert is out with a cut on his throwing hand, which means Chad Henne will get the start. The Raiders have a nice running game with Darren McFadden (when healthy) and now Pryor. Their defense isn't great but the Jags offense will look just as bad this week and have a difficult time to score enough to cover.
Other NFL in 10 or less
EAGLES -7.5 over Chargers West coast teams struggle in 1:00pm east coast games.
Browns +6.5 over RAVENS Browns always keep close with Baltimore, 7 would be better.
TEXANS -9 over Titans Houston will find its offensive legs at home.
Dolphins +3 over COLTS Miami proved me wrong last week. Take them this week.
BILLS +3 over Panthers Hard to pass up home teams with points.
ATLANTA -6.5 over Rams Too much firepower in the Georgia Dome.
Redskins +7.5 over PACKERS RG3 came to life late last week. Should be shootout.
CHIEFS -3 over Cowboys I'm high on the Chiefs this year.
CARDINALS +1.5 over Lions Arizona won 38-10 last year and both teams have improved.
GIANTS +4.5 over Broncos Eli always plays big in big games.
BENGALS -7 over Steelers Steelers looked terrible and lost standouts Pouncey and Foote.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 4-1
Overall
Last Week: 9-5-1
Season Total: 9-5-1
Monday, September 9, 2013
2013 NFL Season Totals
With the NFL season upon us I've decided to focus a lot of attention to sports betting. The NFL is the most bet on sport and is talked about quite often. In the first installment, I've gone through all 32 teams and gave you
my predictions for their total wins. The odds associated are straight off the
sheet from Caesars Palace. Some teams have a real good value (Browns under 6.5 +135) whereas others were jumped on early and the price was really affected (Chiefs over 7.5 -175). For those that don't know what I'm talking about, if you took the Chiefs to win more than 7.5 games, you would have to bet $175 to win $100. Whereas if you took the Browns to win less than 6.5 games, you would win $1.35 for every $1 you bet, which means if you bet $100 you would win $135. Here's what I came up with.
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | ||
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | ||
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | ||
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 |
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
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