After a 4-11-1 record last week, for the first time all year we are under .500 overall. Not a good feeling. The SuperContest is still decent as we split again at 2-2-1. We saw some teams flex their muscle as Denver overcame an early deficit to take down the Chiefs for the second time in three weeks and Seattle proved they are the team to beat in the NFC, blowing out the Saints 34-7. We also saw Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin, not only affect the game but also the betting outcome. Tomlin was clearly where he shouldn't be on the field, you can tell he knew what he was doing by his wry smile after the play. He ended up getting in the way of Jacoby Jones, who would have been gone for a touchdown on a punt return. Baltimore had to settle for a field goal and missed covering by one point. This week we have two games that feature division rivals when New Orleans hosts Carolina and Seattle travels to San Francisco. These are going to be the hardest to call but let's get into it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
JAGUARS +3 over Texans Jags playing better and are at home in primetime.
Chiefs -3 over REDSKINS KC defense too good for RG3.
STEELERS -3 over Dolphins Big Ben is putting up points, while D coming around.
Titans +12 over BRONCOS Too cold for Peyton, CJ2K keeps it close.
CHARGERS -3 over Giants I have no faith in Eli on the road.
Other NFL
Vikings +7 over RAVENS Baltimore hasn't blown too many teams out this year.
PATRIOTS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep up with Brady.
Raiders +3 over JETS NYJ have hit a nasty wall since beating Saints.
BENGALS -6.5 over Colts Red Rocket goes off against bad D.
SAINTS -3 over Panthers Saints find offense at home to stop Panthers win streak.
EAGLES -3 over Lions Foles has offense on point, Stafford throwing too many INT's.
BUCS -2.5 over Bills Buffalo struggles on the road, 1-4 ATS.
CARDINALS -6.5 over Rams Arizona at home and Palmer finally looks good.
Seahawks +3 over 49ERS Seattle rides momentum from stomping of Saints.
Falcons +3 over PACKERS Green Bay 0-5 ATS since Rodgers went out.
BEARS PK over Cowboys McCown clicking with Jeffery, let's see if defense shows up.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 33-28-4
Overall
Last Week: 4-11-1
Season Total: 91-93-7
Showing posts with label Denver Broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denver Broncos. Show all posts
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
2013 NFL Midseason Totals
With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out. The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets. They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line. We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year. But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid. There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 8 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Thursday, September 19, 2013
NFL Week 3 Pick'em
The big news in the NFL was Trent Richardson being dealt to the
Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick. When I saw this I
didn't believe it. T-Rich was the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft and
he's already been traded. If the Browns are interested in rebuilding wouldn't you want to do that around a great running back like Richardson? I'm kind of confused but I do know that the Browns will have a hard time winning games now and I guess they are in a fight for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft with Jacksonville.
It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend. However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2. It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone. The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again. They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread). Let's get back on track in Week 3.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns
I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now. The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help. Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer. Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson. But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball. This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home. AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown.
Bills +2.5 over JETS
Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team. Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York. Last week was a perfect example of this. Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10. However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23. I'll take the better QB and the points.
DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons
I totally doubted Miami coming into this year. I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace. But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around. Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions. Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1. Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug. They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel. Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor. Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.
Packers -3 over BENGALS
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day. Green Bay also found new life at the running back position. After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild. Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD. The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers. Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends. This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.
Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS
I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago. They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs. Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's. For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory. The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough. Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Chiefs +3 over EAGLES Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.
TITANS -3 over Chargers Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.
Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.
RAVENS +2.5 over Texans Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.
Rams +4 over COWBOYS Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.
Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.
PANTHERS -1 over Giants Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.
Colts +10 over 49ERS Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.
STEELERS +2.5 over Bears Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.
BRONCOS -15 over Raiders Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 7-3
Overall
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 17-13-1
It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend. However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2. It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone. The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again. They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread). Let's get back on track in Week 3.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns
I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now. The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help. Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer. Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson. But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball. This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home. AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown.
Bills +2.5 over JETS
Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team. Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York. Last week was a perfect example of this. Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10. However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23. I'll take the better QB and the points.
DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons
I totally doubted Miami coming into this year. I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace. But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around. Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions. Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1. Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug. They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel. Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor. Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.
Packers -3 over BENGALS
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day. Green Bay also found new life at the running back position. After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild. Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD. The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers. Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends. This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.
Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS
I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago. They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs. Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's. For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory. The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough. Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Chiefs +3 over EAGLES Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.
TITANS -3 over Chargers Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.
Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.
RAVENS +2.5 over Texans Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.
Rams +4 over COWBOYS Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.
Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.
PANTHERS -1 over Giants Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.
Colts +10 over 49ERS Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.
STEELERS +2.5 over Bears Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.
BRONCOS -15 over Raiders Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 7-3
Overall
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 17-13-1
Monday, September 9, 2013
2013 NFL Season Totals
With the NFL season upon us I've decided to focus a lot of attention to sports betting. The NFL is the most bet on sport and is talked about quite often. In the first installment, I've gone through all 32 teams and gave you
my predictions for their total wins. The odds associated are straight off the
sheet from Caesars Palace. Some teams have a real good value (Browns under 6.5 +135) whereas others were jumped on early and the price was really affected (Chiefs over 7.5 -175). For those that don't know what I'm talking about, if you took the Chiefs to win more than 7.5 games, you would have to bet $175 to win $100. Whereas if you took the Browns to win less than 6.5 games, you would win $1.35 for every $1 you bet, which means if you bet $100 you would win $135. Here's what I came up with.
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | ||
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | ||
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | ||
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 |
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
Friday, January 11, 2013
NFL Divisional Round
The first weekend of the playoffs went according to schedule as all the favorites moved on. This weekend however will be a little more difficult to call as all remaining teams have at least one win against each other. Three of the four games are rematches from earlier in the year as Baltimore-Denver, Green Bay-San Francisco, and Houston-New England have all played this season. As for Seattle-Atlanta, the Seahawks will again be thought of as the road team with the best odds to escape with a win.
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sat.
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Denver this weekend looking to get revenge for a 34-17 defeat the Broncos handed them on December 16th. After an easy win over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Ravens will now have to contend with a team that ranks 4th in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Baltimore looked good running the ball last week as they had 172 yards rushing, 103 by Bernard Pierce. Joe Flacco continued his first round winning streak throwing for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 12 completions. That game also marked Ray Lewis' last home game of his stellar career and it was good to see him leave on a high note. But now they face the Denver Broncos, the hottest team in football, on an 11-game win streak. In their first meeting the Broncos controlled both sides of the ball while building a 31-3 lead as they scored on the ground, through the air and on defense. Along with Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning is a candidate for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year as he threw for 4659 yards and 37 TD's. Coming off of serious neck surgery, we weren't sure how Peyton would perform but he had arguably his best season ever with his highest completion percentage and second highest totals in yards and touchdowns. He wasn't their only bright spot either as the defense played at a high level all season ranking 3rd in opponents passing and rushing yards per game. In previous years Baltimore would have a chance in this game because they would hold the advantage on D but not this year. Denver is too balanced offensively, even with their starting running back Willis McGahee out, and their defense made the Ravens struggle badly at home. If this game was being played in Maryland I'd give Baltimore a chance to win, but it's not. I give the edge to Peyton Manning, who led the league in Quarterback Rating at 84.1, and the Denver D.
Game: Denver
Bet: Baltimore
Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) -3 at 8:00pm Sat.
In the first game of the season the San Francisco 49ers traveled to Green Bay and left with a 30-22 victory. Now the Packers will travel to San Fran in the Divisional Round of the playoffs looking to return the favor. Last week the Packers coasted to a 24-10 win over Minnesota and their backup QB Joe Webb. They will face another QB that began the season as a backup this week but Colin Kaepernick has proved himself to be a viable starter in the NFL. Kaepernick played sparingly until getting the start week 11 against the Chicago Bears and led the Niners to a 32-7 W, throwing for 243 yards and 2 TD's. He went on to finish the season 5-2 as a starter and pushed Alex Smith to the role of backup QB. In the teams first meeting it was Smith that threw for 211 yards and 2 TD's while Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards and a TD. But Kaepernick provides a running threat that Green Bay will have to worry about if they want to pull off the upset. While he is making his first post-season start, Aaron Rodgers will be making his eighth and his team is getting healthy at the right time. The problem they've had is a lack of running game and when going up against a defense like the Niners, you can't be one dimensional. SF ranks 3rd in opponents total yards and 2nd in opponents points at 17.1 per game, being led by Aldon Smith who was 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 19.5. Rodgers and Green Bay's passing offense is so efficient they usually can overcome not having a consistent rushing attack. However, The key this game with be the Packers defense. If they are able to contain Gore and stymie the Niners through the air they have a great chance because you know Rodgers is going to put up points even against one of the best defenses in the league. I feel like Green Bay's defense will step up and pressure the inexperienced Kaepernick into bad throws. This should be a great game coming down to the wire with Rodgers leading his team to the NFC Championship game.
Game: Green Bay
Bet: Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) -2.5 at 1:00pm Sun.
Is this the year Matt Ryan will win his first playoff game? After making the playoffs 3 of his first 4 years Matty Ice is still looking for his first win. He put up the best numbers of his career with 4,719 yards and 32 TD's but will have his hands full with Seattle's defense. The Seahawks were able to advance after a 24-14 win in Washington, Marshawn Lynch ran for 132 yards and 1 TD. The Falcons defense is tough to get a handle on because by a yardage standpoint they rank 24th but only give up 18.7 points per game, good for 5th. Stopping Lynch will be their #1 priority as he's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 5 games. While Atlanta has to try to stop one player, Seattle will be asked to stop two dynamic wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. White and Jones combined for 2,549 yards and 17 TD's and will be matched up against Seattle Corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. I believe this matchup will decide the game. Receivers are usually bigger than corners, but Browner (6'4", 221 lbs) and Sherman (6'3", 195) are not your average corners and have a size advantage over almost every receiver tandem in the league. While White and Jones both had great seasons, for some reason Jones played much better on the road than at home. On the road Jones had 751 yards and 8 TD's while only totaling 447 and 2 TD's in the Georgia Dome. If Atlanta is able to complete passes down field for big plays they have a great chance of winning. As discussed last week, Seattle and quarterback Russell Wilson have struggled on the road. They were able to get a road playoff win last week but I don't see it happening again. A lot of people don't have faith in the Falcons but they were 7-1 at home and if their offense can score on this tough D, Matt Ryan will get that elusive first playoff win.
Game: Atlanta
Bet: Atlanta
Houston Texans (12-4) @ New England (12-4) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sun.
Their meeting in the regular season was one of the most anticipated because Houston was coming in with an 11-1 record and road game in New England on Monday night would tell us if they were for real. The Texans played uninspiring football and were smashed 42-14 behind Tom Brady's 296 yards and 4 TD's. Houston will have to find some way to slow down Brady as he and the Patriots have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL at 34.8 points per game. We all know what to expect out of Brady but running back Stevan Ridley was a pleasant surprise for New England rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 TD's. The Pats started the season 3-3 (losing those games by a combined 4 points) but finished strong at 9-1 and now are now poised for another Super Bowl push. I'm not going to lie, I really don't think the Texans have much of a chance in this game. For Houston, everything starts with their running game but in the first meeting Arian Foster only managed 46 yards. Partly because New England jumped out to a 28-0 lead and Houston was forced to throw to get back in the game. I see this same scenario playing out again. New England's defense never gets enough credit but they rank 9th in opponents rushing and points against while creating 41 turnovers, 2nd behind Chicago. Year in and year out the Patriots are the most consistent team in the league. New England will handle Houston and with ease and with a win, Tom Brady will pass Joe Montana for most career playoff wins by a QB.
Game: New England
Bet: New England
Last Week
Straight Up: 4-0
Against The Spread: 2-2
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sat.
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Denver this weekend looking to get revenge for a 34-17 defeat the Broncos handed them on December 16th. After an easy win over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Ravens will now have to contend with a team that ranks 4th in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Baltimore looked good running the ball last week as they had 172 yards rushing, 103 by Bernard Pierce. Joe Flacco continued his first round winning streak throwing for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 12 completions. That game also marked Ray Lewis' last home game of his stellar career and it was good to see him leave on a high note. But now they face the Denver Broncos, the hottest team in football, on an 11-game win streak. In their first meeting the Broncos controlled both sides of the ball while building a 31-3 lead as they scored on the ground, through the air and on defense. Along with Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning is a candidate for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year as he threw for 4659 yards and 37 TD's. Coming off of serious neck surgery, we weren't sure how Peyton would perform but he had arguably his best season ever with his highest completion percentage and second highest totals in yards and touchdowns. He wasn't their only bright spot either as the defense played at a high level all season ranking 3rd in opponents passing and rushing yards per game. In previous years Baltimore would have a chance in this game because they would hold the advantage on D but not this year. Denver is too balanced offensively, even with their starting running back Willis McGahee out, and their defense made the Ravens struggle badly at home. If this game was being played in Maryland I'd give Baltimore a chance to win, but it's not. I give the edge to Peyton Manning, who led the league in Quarterback Rating at 84.1, and the Denver D.
Game: Denver
Bet: Baltimore
Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) -3 at 8:00pm Sat.
In the first game of the season the San Francisco 49ers traveled to Green Bay and left with a 30-22 victory. Now the Packers will travel to San Fran in the Divisional Round of the playoffs looking to return the favor. Last week the Packers coasted to a 24-10 win over Minnesota and their backup QB Joe Webb. They will face another QB that began the season as a backup this week but Colin Kaepernick has proved himself to be a viable starter in the NFL. Kaepernick played sparingly until getting the start week 11 against the Chicago Bears and led the Niners to a 32-7 W, throwing for 243 yards and 2 TD's. He went on to finish the season 5-2 as a starter and pushed Alex Smith to the role of backup QB. In the teams first meeting it was Smith that threw for 211 yards and 2 TD's while Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards and a TD. But Kaepernick provides a running threat that Green Bay will have to worry about if they want to pull off the upset. While he is making his first post-season start, Aaron Rodgers will be making his eighth and his team is getting healthy at the right time. The problem they've had is a lack of running game and when going up against a defense like the Niners, you can't be one dimensional. SF ranks 3rd in opponents total yards and 2nd in opponents points at 17.1 per game, being led by Aldon Smith who was 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 19.5. Rodgers and Green Bay's passing offense is so efficient they usually can overcome not having a consistent rushing attack. However, The key this game with be the Packers defense. If they are able to contain Gore and stymie the Niners through the air they have a great chance because you know Rodgers is going to put up points even against one of the best defenses in the league. I feel like Green Bay's defense will step up and pressure the inexperienced Kaepernick into bad throws. This should be a great game coming down to the wire with Rodgers leading his team to the NFC Championship game.
Game: Green Bay
Bet: Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) -2.5 at 1:00pm Sun.
Is this the year Matt Ryan will win his first playoff game? After making the playoffs 3 of his first 4 years Matty Ice is still looking for his first win. He put up the best numbers of his career with 4,719 yards and 32 TD's but will have his hands full with Seattle's defense. The Seahawks were able to advance after a 24-14 win in Washington, Marshawn Lynch ran for 132 yards and 1 TD. The Falcons defense is tough to get a handle on because by a yardage standpoint they rank 24th but only give up 18.7 points per game, good for 5th. Stopping Lynch will be their #1 priority as he's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 5 games. While Atlanta has to try to stop one player, Seattle will be asked to stop two dynamic wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. White and Jones combined for 2,549 yards and 17 TD's and will be matched up against Seattle Corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. I believe this matchup will decide the game. Receivers are usually bigger than corners, but Browner (6'4", 221 lbs) and Sherman (6'3", 195) are not your average corners and have a size advantage over almost every receiver tandem in the league. While White and Jones both had great seasons, for some reason Jones played much better on the road than at home. On the road Jones had 751 yards and 8 TD's while only totaling 447 and 2 TD's in the Georgia Dome. If Atlanta is able to complete passes down field for big plays they have a great chance of winning. As discussed last week, Seattle and quarterback Russell Wilson have struggled on the road. They were able to get a road playoff win last week but I don't see it happening again. A lot of people don't have faith in the Falcons but they were 7-1 at home and if their offense can score on this tough D, Matt Ryan will get that elusive first playoff win.
Game: Atlanta
Bet: Atlanta
Houston Texans (12-4) @ New England (12-4) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sun.
Their meeting in the regular season was one of the most anticipated because Houston was coming in with an 11-1 record and road game in New England on Monday night would tell us if they were for real. The Texans played uninspiring football and were smashed 42-14 behind Tom Brady's 296 yards and 4 TD's. Houston will have to find some way to slow down Brady as he and the Patriots have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL at 34.8 points per game. We all know what to expect out of Brady but running back Stevan Ridley was a pleasant surprise for New England rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 TD's. The Pats started the season 3-3 (losing those games by a combined 4 points) but finished strong at 9-1 and now are now poised for another Super Bowl push. I'm not going to lie, I really don't think the Texans have much of a chance in this game. For Houston, everything starts with their running game but in the first meeting Arian Foster only managed 46 yards. Partly because New England jumped out to a 28-0 lead and Houston was forced to throw to get back in the game. I see this same scenario playing out again. New England's defense never gets enough credit but they rank 9th in opponents rushing and points against while creating 41 turnovers, 2nd behind Chicago. Year in and year out the Patriots are the most consistent team in the league. New England will handle Houston and with ease and with a win, Tom Brady will pass Joe Montana for most career playoff wins by a QB.
Game: New England
Bet: New England
Last Week
Straight Up: 4-0
Against The Spread: 2-2
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