After four long weeks we finally had a winning week in the SuperContest with a 4-1 record in Week 5. We saw some great games last week with the Browns rallying from 25 down on the road to beat the Titans, two overtime games where New Orleans and Dallas came out on top, and my Detroit Lions finding a new way to lose. The Lions K Alex Henery missed 3 FGs including a 50-yarder with 21 seconds left which in turn lead to the Bills K Dan Carpenter hitting a GW 58-yard FG of his own. Henery has since been cut and Detroit signed former Broncos K Matt Prater, which makes it 3 kickers in 6 weeks. This week is very interesting betting wise with 8 home/dogs out of 15 games. The means small lines and tougher games pick. But we gotta do, what we gotta do.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -1.5 over Steelers
After their huge comeback against the Titans last week, Cleveland is looking to get on the plus side of .500 in a big rivalry game. RB Ben Tate saw his first action since a Week 1 injury and played great rushing for 124 yards on 24 carries. This is a good sign for a team usually known for its defense but who is struggling on that side of the ball this year. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in total defense after being in the top 10 in 2013. However, they've made up for it with the play of QB Brian Hoyer. In Week 1 Hoyer almost lead the Browns back from a 24-point half time deficit against these Steelers only to see Pittsburgh win on a last second FG. This time the Browns won't get down so big, so early and take the win.
FALCONS -3 over Bears
Atlanta can't wait to get back home. After going winless on their two game road trip the Falcons will look to get back on track against the Bears. Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be the biggest beneficiary of returning to the Georgia Dome as he has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INTs at home and 5 TDs with 6 INTs on the road. As for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, who was recently compared to retired QB Jeff George by Brian Billick on "Mike and Mike", threw 2 bad interceptions last week against the Panthers and lost the game down the stretch 31-24. Atlanta WR Devin Hester will also be looking to show out against his old team the same way Steve Smith did in Week 3 against Carolina. Atlanta takes this one.
Patriots -3 over BILLS
Note to self...don't bet against Brady's Pats as home/dogs. Last week I doubted New England, and Brady, and it cost me a 5-0 SC record. I've learned my lesson and the rest of the league took notice that the Pats aren't finished yet. New England waxed the then undefeated Bengals 43-17 and will now take on a 3-2 Bills team that barely escaped a loss in Detroit. This is a big game for both teams as they are tied atop the AFC East and that's why I see the Pats taking it. They knew last week it was a turning point in the season if they won and now that they have they take control on their division.
Cowboys +8 over SEAHAWKS
The Dallas Cowboys are the surprise team of the NFL with a 4-1 record and DeMarco Murray is the surprise player leading the league in rushing. Don't get me wrong, Seattle is the better team but Dallas' running game is what will keep it close. The Seahawks lead league in rushing defense but are yet to face a formidable attack. Their first four game have been against teams ranked in the bottom 20 in rushing. Seattle's defense has been good but not great this season as they've only forced 3 turnovers thus far, although Dallas is one of the more turnover prone teams (but so was Washington who had 0 TOs last week). Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also been a better game manager as of late with an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Seattle wins but Dallas covers.
RAMS +3.5 over 49ers Austin Davis putting up numbers
St. Louis has had a rough season even before it actually started with QB Sam Bradford going down for the year and their defense not living up to their expectations. But ever since QB Austin Davis has been inserted in to the starting lineup in Week 2 they have been competitive and are 2-1 ATS. In his last two games Davis has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners are 3-2 overall but only 1-4 ATS. Their defense ranks 2nd in the league and all the signs are pointing to San Francisco taking this game but they have been keeping their opponents within striking distance.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TEXANS Texans don't have D to stop Luck
JETS +10 over Broncos Only because of double digit home/dog
TITANS -5 over Jaguars Even if Whitehurst starts since Jags are embarrassing
DOLPHINS +3.5 over Packers Miami decent at home and defense is in top 10
Lions -1.5 over VIKINGS Lions finally have a kicker, can now win close games
Panthers +6.5 over BENGALS No AJ Green limits Cincy's scoring ability
Ravens -3 over BUCS Despite last week, Ravens offense playing well
RAIDERS +7 over Chargers New coach, 2 weeks rest, rivarly, SD first ATS loss
Redskins +3.5 over CARDINALS Logan Thomas will struggle too much for Arizona
EAGLES -3 over Giants Gonna be a shootout and no Jennings for NYG
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 11-14
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 34-42
Showing posts with label Sports Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports Betting. Show all posts
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
2014 NFL Week 5 Pick'em
Once you get in a hole it's hard to dig yourself out. We are still 6 games below .500 in the SuperContest and 7 overall. Last week we saw that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are a shell of their former selves and it doesn't get any better this week with the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals coming to town after a bye week. Also, the New Orleans Saints are having their troubles on the road as they are now 1-3 after getting trounced in Dallas 38-17. Speaking of Dallas, RB DeMarco Murray is setting the league on fire right now with 4 straight games of 100+ yards and 1 TD to open the season. This week the two games I'm looking forward to watching are the Patriots-Bengals and Cardinals-Broncos. Can the Brady Bunch bounce back against a good Cincy team? How will Arizona and Denver matchup after both coming off byes? Let's dig it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
Thursday, August 21, 2014
2014 NFL Season Totals
Welcome back sports fans! The NFL season is right around the corner and I'm back off hiatus to give you the season totals for all 32 teams. This year is a little different as I was at Caesars Palace Las Vegas recently and their betting sheet not only had over/under but also exact for their totals. It adds a big wrinkle to the payouts because the third exact line now reduces the difference between the over/under bets.
What I did this year was create a spreadsheet to mark all the wins and losses as I went through each teams schedule. Once I was finished I added up numbers and I'm not going to lie, some of them I'm not proud of. I don't think Minnesota will be very good but I also don't think they will only have 2 wins. But that's what I came up so I have to stand by my picks.
By the numbers I have 13 overs, 6 exacts, and 13 unders. You can't get more balanced than that. Now comes the part I hate, waiting the entire season to find out the results.
What I did this year was create a spreadsheet to mark all the wins and losses as I went through each teams schedule. Once I was finished I added up numbers and I'm not going to lie, some of them I'm not proud of. I don't think Minnesota will be very good but I also don't think they will only have 2 wins. But that's what I came up so I have to stand by my picks.
| 2014 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 8 (o +120) | 9 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 8 (e +350) | 8 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 (e +350) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 7 (u +120) | 3 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 8 (u +180) | 7 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 9 (o +140) | 12 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 (o EVEN) | 10 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 7 (u EVEN) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 (u -150) | 5 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 11 (o -110) | 13 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8 (e +350) | 8 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| Houston Texans | 8 (u +120) | 5 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 (o +180) | 12 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u +160) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 (u +120) | 6 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 8 (u EVEN) | 7 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 (u +180) | 2 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o EVEN) | 13 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 10 (o +120) | 12 | ||
| New York Giants | 8 (u +160) | 5 | ||
| New York Jets | 7 (e +350) | 7 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (o -120) | 6 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 (o EVEN) | 10 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 (e +350) | 9 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 8 (u +180) | 7 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 (e +350) | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 (o EVEN) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 8 (o +120) | 9 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 (u +150) | 2 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 7 (o EVEN) | 8 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 7 (u +180) | 6 |
By the numbers I have 13 overs, 6 exacts, and 13 unders. You can't get more balanced than that. Now comes the part I hate, waiting the entire season to find out the results.
Friday, January 3, 2014
2013 NFL Season Totals and Pick'em Results
With the 2013 NFL regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start let's take a look at how we did with our predictions for the season totals.
Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line). The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals. However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.
To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line. Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost. I used $20 as my base bet. If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20. Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.
Win/Loss Correct Picks Wrong Picks PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals $234.00 48 33 4
2013 Pick'em Totals $258.00 135 111 10
Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away. I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks. Here are those numbers.
This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out. Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally. To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook. This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 10 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 12 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 7 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 11 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 8 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 8 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 11 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 6 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 12 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 11 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 7 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 8 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 10 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 8 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 14 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 7 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line). The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals. However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.
To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line. Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost. I used $20 as my base bet. If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20. Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.
Win/Loss Correct Picks Wrong Picks PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals $234.00 48 33 4
2013 Pick'em Totals $258.00 135 111 10
Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away. I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks. Here are those numbers.
| 2013 Season Totals | |
| Fav Cover | 122 |
| Dog Cover | 119 |
| Home Cover | 133 |
| Road Cover | 112 |
| Home/Fav Cover | 85 |
| Road/Dog Cover | 73 |
| Home/Dog Cover | 44 |
| Road/Fav Cover | 36 |
This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out. Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally. To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook. This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.
NFL Week 17 Pick'em
Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money. Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it. The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick. However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason. For the last time, let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
NFL Week 16 Pick'em
Our second strong week in a row has a in position to finish the year with a little bit of extra money in our pockets.
The trip to Las Vegas was a little bit of a success but it was horrible
watching my Detroit Lions lose on a 61-yard FG to the Ravens 18-16. The
Cowboys had their end of the year meltdown as well with the Packers
rallying from 23-points down to win 37-36. Arizona almost gave me a
heart attack giving up 17 points in the final 3:12 to the Titans but
pulled it out in OT 37-34. And I can't forget to mention the day Jamaal
Charles had combining for 215 yards and five touchdowns propelling many
fantasy teams in the finals and bouncing two of my teams out of the
playoffs. We still haven't had a losing SuperContest week since Week 7
but we haven't gained much ground as we've been going back and forth
between 3-2 and 2-2-1. This week there are many teams that are trying
to stay in the playoff hunt. No teams in the NFC have clinched their
division yet and three teams are still competing in the NFC North. Time
to get in the holiday spirit and get some extra cash for more presents!
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PANTHERS -3 over Saints Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.
RAMS -3.5 over Bucs Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.
Browns +2 over JETS Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.
Steelers +1 over PACKERS Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.
Giants +9 over LIONS Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.
Other NFL
Dolphins -3 over BILLS Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.
REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.
EAGLES -3 over Bears Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.
CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.
BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.
Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.
JAGUARS +4 over Titans Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.
Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.
Raiders +10 over CHARGERS Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.
Patriots PK over RAVENS Ravens not as good as record shows.
49ERS -13.5 over Falcons Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 39-32-4
Overall
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 114-102-7
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PANTHERS -3 over Saints Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.
RAMS -3.5 over Bucs Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.
Browns +2 over JETS Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.
Steelers +1 over PACKERS Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.
Giants +9 over LIONS Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.
Other NFL
Dolphins -3 over BILLS Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.
REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.
EAGLES -3 over Bears Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.
CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.
BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.
Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.
JAGUARS +4 over Titans Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.
Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.
Raiders +10 over CHARGERS Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.
Patriots PK over RAVENS Ravens not as good as record shows.
49ERS -13.5 over Falcons Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 39-32-4
Overall
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 114-102-7
Thursday, December 19, 2013
NFL Week 15 Pick'em
After a solid 12-4 last week we crept back above .500 with three weeks left. We watched the first week of snow games and I was surprised how many points were scored. Calvin Johnson turned into the abominable snowman but the Lions couldn't stop LeSean McCoy as he rushed for an Eagles franchise record 217 yards and Philly won 34-20 thanks to 28 fourth quarter points. In the big game of the week, San Francisco squeaked by Seattle 19-17. In the wildest finishes, New England scored 13 points in the final 1:01 with the help of an onside kick and a Billy Cundiff missed last second 58-yard field goal to edge the Browns. Also, after sleep walking through most of the game the Vikings and Ravens came alive in the final 2:05 scoring five combined touchdowns, but Baltimore had the last laugh with a Marlon Brown TD reception for the 29-26 win. I'm really excited for this week as I'll be in Las Vegas for the games. Hopefully I'll be able to turn these picks into some real money!
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.
COLTS -5.5 over Texans Houston doesn't care anymore.
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.
Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.
Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.
Other NFL
Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.
Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.
49ers -5.5 over BUCS SF rides momentum of Seattle win.
RAMS +5.5 over Saints Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.
GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.
Bears PK over BROWNS Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.
Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.
PANTHERS -11 over Jets Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.
Packers +7 over COWBOYS It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.
STEELERS +3 over Bengals I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.
Ravens +6 over LIONS 6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 36-30-4
Overall
Last Week: 12-4
Season Total: 103-97-7
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.
COLTS -5.5 over Texans Houston doesn't care anymore.
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.
Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.
Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.
Other NFL
Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.
Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.
49ers -5.5 over BUCS SF rides momentum of Seattle win.
RAMS +5.5 over Saints Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.
GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.
Bears PK over BROWNS Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.
Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.
PANTHERS -11 over Jets Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.
Packers +7 over COWBOYS It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.
STEELERS +3 over Bengals I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.
Ravens +6 over LIONS 6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 36-30-4
Overall
Last Week: 12-4
Season Total: 103-97-7
Thursday, December 5, 2013
NFL Week 14 Pick'em
After a 4-11-1 record last week, for the first time all year we are under .500 overall. Not a good feeling. The SuperContest is still decent as we split again at 2-2-1. We saw some teams flex their muscle as Denver overcame an early deficit to take down the Chiefs for the second time in three weeks and Seattle proved they are the team to beat in the NFC, blowing out the Saints 34-7. We also saw Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin, not only affect the game but also the betting outcome. Tomlin was clearly where he shouldn't be on the field, you can tell he knew what he was doing by his wry smile after the play. He ended up getting in the way of Jacoby Jones, who would have been gone for a touchdown on a punt return. Baltimore had to settle for a field goal and missed covering by one point. This week we have two games that feature division rivals when New Orleans hosts Carolina and Seattle travels to San Francisco. These are going to be the hardest to call but let's get into it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
JAGUARS +3 over Texans Jags playing better and are at home in primetime.
Chiefs -3 over REDSKINS KC defense too good for RG3.
STEELERS -3 over Dolphins Big Ben is putting up points, while D coming around.
Titans +12 over BRONCOS Too cold for Peyton, CJ2K keeps it close.
CHARGERS -3 over Giants I have no faith in Eli on the road.
Other NFL
Vikings +7 over RAVENS Baltimore hasn't blown too many teams out this year.
PATRIOTS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep up with Brady.
Raiders +3 over JETS NYJ have hit a nasty wall since beating Saints.
BENGALS -6.5 over Colts Red Rocket goes off against bad D.
SAINTS -3 over Panthers Saints find offense at home to stop Panthers win streak.
EAGLES -3 over Lions Foles has offense on point, Stafford throwing too many INT's.
BUCS -2.5 over Bills Buffalo struggles on the road, 1-4 ATS.
CARDINALS -6.5 over Rams Arizona at home and Palmer finally looks good.
Seahawks +3 over 49ERS Seattle rides momentum from stomping of Saints.
Falcons +3 over PACKERS Green Bay 0-5 ATS since Rodgers went out.
BEARS PK over Cowboys McCown clicking with Jeffery, let's see if defense shows up.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 33-28-4
Overall
Last Week: 4-11-1
Season Total: 91-93-7
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
JAGUARS +3 over Texans Jags playing better and are at home in primetime.
Chiefs -3 over REDSKINS KC defense too good for RG3.
STEELERS -3 over Dolphins Big Ben is putting up points, while D coming around.
Titans +12 over BRONCOS Too cold for Peyton, CJ2K keeps it close.
CHARGERS -3 over Giants I have no faith in Eli on the road.
Other NFL
Vikings +7 over RAVENS Baltimore hasn't blown too many teams out this year.
PATRIOTS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep up with Brady.
Raiders +3 over JETS NYJ have hit a nasty wall since beating Saints.
BENGALS -6.5 over Colts Red Rocket goes off against bad D.
SAINTS -3 over Panthers Saints find offense at home to stop Panthers win streak.
EAGLES -3 over Lions Foles has offense on point, Stafford throwing too many INT's.
BUCS -2.5 over Bills Buffalo struggles on the road, 1-4 ATS.
CARDINALS -6.5 over Rams Arizona at home and Palmer finally looks good.
Seahawks +3 over 49ERS Seattle rides momentum from stomping of Saints.
Falcons +3 over PACKERS Green Bay 0-5 ATS since Rodgers went out.
BEARS PK over Cowboys McCown clicking with Jeffery, let's see if defense shows up.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 33-28-4
Overall
Last Week: 4-11-1
Season Total: 91-93-7
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
NFL Week 13 Pick'em
Well, it feels good to get rid of that losing streak. We had a nice 9-5 overall week but the SuperContest picks could have been better than 3-2 (thanks a lot Panthers). The New England Patriots had a huge comeback win over the Denver Broncos 34-31 in OT. Tom Brady's offense was lost in the first half falling behind 24-0. However, he rallied his team to score 31 straight points. But, it was a muffed punt in overtime that set up the Patriots for the game winning field goal. This wasn't the only game to go into OT either as Minnesota and Green Bay played to a tie. This was the second tie in two years. Each team scored a field goal on their first possession of the extra time but couldn't score again. I think they need to get rid of ties in the NFL altogether but a debate for another time. We'll stick with our shorter breakdowns again this week because we all know that gamblers are superstitious and like to stay with what works.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
EAGLES -3 over Cardinals Foles has Eagles hot and coming off bye.
CHARGERS -1 over Bengals Chargers solid at home, Bengals struggle on the road.
VIKINGS PK over Bears Bears can't stop run, Peterson runs wild
BILLS -3 over Falcons Atlanta having all kinds of trouble.
Jaguars +7 over BROWNS Jags playing better and Weedon back as starter for Browns.
Other NFL
Packers +6.5 over LIONS Remember what happened last time Matt Flynn started against Detroit?
Raiders +9.5 over COWBOYS Raiders control pace with Jennings ground game.
RAVENS -3 over Steelers Steelers playing well but Ravens tough at home.
Titans +4 over COLTS Titans 5-0 ATS away, Colts reeling.
CHIEFS +4.5 over Broncos KC has been waiting to get revenge.
Bucs +8 over PANTHERS Bucs on 3 game win streak, stay within two scores.
JETS -1.5 over Dolphins Can't figure out Jets, let's try'em again.
49ERS -8 over Rams SF Defense too much for Rams possibly without Zac Stacy.
Patriots -7.5 over TEXANS Texans 0-6 ATS at home, biggest disappointment in NFL.
REDSKINS +1 over Giants Both teams suck, go with who's at home.
Saints +5.5 over SEAHAWKS Brees and offense will keep it close.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 31-26-3
Overall
Last Week: 9-5
Season Total: 87-82-6
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
EAGLES -3 over Cardinals Foles has Eagles hot and coming off bye.
CHARGERS -1 over Bengals Chargers solid at home, Bengals struggle on the road.
VIKINGS PK over Bears Bears can't stop run, Peterson runs wild
BILLS -3 over Falcons Atlanta having all kinds of trouble.
Jaguars +7 over BROWNS Jags playing better and Weedon back as starter for Browns.
Other NFL
Packers +6.5 over LIONS Remember what happened last time Matt Flynn started against Detroit?
Raiders +9.5 over COWBOYS Raiders control pace with Jennings ground game.
RAVENS -3 over Steelers Steelers playing well but Ravens tough at home.
Titans +4 over COLTS Titans 5-0 ATS away, Colts reeling.
CHIEFS +4.5 over Broncos KC has been waiting to get revenge.
Bucs +8 over PANTHERS Bucs on 3 game win streak, stay within two scores.
JETS -1.5 over Dolphins Can't figure out Jets, let's try'em again.
49ERS -8 over Rams SF Defense too much for Rams possibly without Zac Stacy.
Patriots -7.5 over TEXANS Texans 0-6 ATS at home, biggest disappointment in NFL.
REDSKINS +1 over Giants Both teams suck, go with who's at home.
Saints +5.5 over SEAHAWKS Brees and offense will keep it close.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 31-26-3
Overall
Last Week: 9-5
Season Total: 87-82-6
Monday, November 25, 2013
NFL Week 12 Pick'em
This is not good. We can't seem to shake this funk and get any traction. We continue to barely hold our heads above water in the SuperContest. But, we are still within striking distance of a decent year and with a few good weeks to end the season we could end up with some profit. In the big game last week the Broncos beat the undefeated Chiefs 27-17. This week all eyes will be on Denver again when they head to New England. I also think I need to change things up this week as we'll have all games with ten words or less breakdowns. Maybe that will bring us home the goods.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Bucs +9 over LIONS Glennon has been getting better each week.
CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers KC picks themselves back up after first loss.
RAMS -1.5 over Bears Rams off bye, Cutler still out.
Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts Don't sleep on the Cards at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS +7.5 over Saints I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.
Jaguars +10 over TEXANS Guess I'll take the points if I have to.
Vikings +4 over PACKERS Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.
RAIDERS +1 over Titans Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.
GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.
PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos Remember Patriots-Saints? Same thing here.
49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 28-24-3
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-2
Season Total: 78-77-6
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Bucs +9 over LIONS Glennon has been getting better each week.
CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers KC picks themselves back up after first loss.
RAMS -1.5 over Bears Rams off bye, Cutler still out.
Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts Don't sleep on the Cards at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS +7.5 over Saints I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.
Jaguars +10 over TEXANS Guess I'll take the points if I have to.
Vikings +4 over PACKERS Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.
RAIDERS +1 over Titans Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.
GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.
PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos Remember Patriots-Saints? Same thing here.
49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 28-24-3
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-2
Season Total: 78-77-6
Sunday, November 17, 2013
NFL Week 11 Pick'em
We are officially in danger mode as we have entered to red in both the SuperContest and overall. Because of sportsbooks taking what is known as "juice" a bettor must win around 54% to make a profit. Right now we are exactly at 52% for the SuperContest and 50% overall. Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season, on the road in Tennessee. A game I'm sure knocked a lot of people out of their survival pools. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also got their first win on Monday night against a Miami Dolphins team that is still all sorts of messed up. The big game on the slate this week is the Denver Broncos hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Nobody expected KC to be the lone undefeated team left but we'll see what they, as this defense, are made of on Sunday night. Let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
Sunday, November 10, 2013
NFL Week 10 Pick'em
As we make the turn for the second half of the season we are barely keeping our heads above water. Sitting at 24-20-1 for the SuperContest and 68-61-3 overall we are in the positive but not by much. We had some bad luck last week with the Chargers not being able to punch it in from the one-yard line then subsequently losing to the Redskins in OT. But I can't complain too much as we were on the right side of luck and Andrew Luck led the Colts on a huge comeback against the Texans with a perfect two-point conversion pass late to cover the 2.5 spread. This week all eyes will be on our Detroit Lions as they head to Chicago for a battle of first place in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers getting hurt Monday night against the Bears, the division is ripe for Detroit or Chicago to take control for a playoff push. Gotta be quick with this one.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
2013 NFL Midseason Totals
With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out. The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets. They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line. We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year. But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid. There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 8 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Friday, November 1, 2013
NFL Week 9 Pick'em
Finally off the schneid! After three straight losing weeks we managed to go 8-5. We lost the pick, but I have to start by talking about the amazing performance by the Detroit Lions and Calvin Johnson. In an instant classic with the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions went 80 yards in 50 seconds with no timeouts to edge the Cowboys 31-30. Johnson was the big story finishing with 329 yards, seven yards shy of an NFL record, and one touchdown. But let's not forget about the job Matthew Stafford did all game either. He was especially great on the final drive hitting Kris Durham with pinpoint precision down the left sideline for 40 yards and faking out everyone as he sneaked the ball over the goal line instead spiking it to stop the clock. But enough about last week, let's go for two in a row and start a new winning streak.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Titans -2.5 over RAMS
Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings. Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year. Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye. Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers. Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night. Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts. The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries. Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out. This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's. But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole. Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.
BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens
This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals. They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way. The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year. Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC. As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City. I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.
Chargers PK over REDSKINS
RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago. Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games. Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past. The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them. Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.
Colts -2.5 over TEXANS
The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston. This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver. Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year. They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub. The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of. This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.
PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons Two teams going in opposite directions.
COWBOYS -10 over Vikings Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.
Saints -6.5 over JETS Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.
SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS Steelers D should keep this one close.
Bears +11 over PACKERS Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 21-18-1
Overall
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 62-54-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Titans -2.5 over RAMS
Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings. Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year. Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye. Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers. Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night. Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts. The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries. Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out. This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's. But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole. Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.
BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens
This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals. They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way. The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year. Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC. As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City. I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.
Chargers PK over REDSKINS
RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago. Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games. Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past. The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them. Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.
Colts -2.5 over TEXANS
The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston. This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver. Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year. They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub. The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of. This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.
PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons Two teams going in opposite directions.
COWBOYS -10 over Vikings Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.
Saints -6.5 over JETS Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.
SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS Steelers D should keep this one close.
Bears +11 over PACKERS Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 21-18-1
Overall
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 62-54-3
Thursday, October 24, 2013
NFL Week 8 Pick'em
Well, it looks like we're going the wrong way. Even the SuperContest numbers took a big hit going 1-4. All I can say is I'm glad I'm not using real money. The Bears, Lions and Chiefs all were games that didn't go our way at the end and could have made our final numbers look a little different if they did. Not only did our picks go down last week, but so did many key players (Doug Martin and Reggie Wayne to name a few). Nonetheless, on to Week 8! A lot of big numbers this week as 10 of the 13 games are hovering around a touchdown or more. We have another game being played in London, this time it's San Francisco and Jacksonville. The NFL really gave them some gems to watch this year. And other than the Cowboys-Lions, there isn't one game I will make a point to watch this weekend. But, we still have to watch our fantasy players and make some picks. So, here we go.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS
No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay. I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though. But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance. He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way. Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson. Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine. Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help. In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.
RAIDERS +3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games. The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's. These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired. I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.
Panthers -6 over BUCS
Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game. The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game. Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm. The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles. Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely. Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield. Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's. But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown. Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.
Seahawks -11 over RAMS
Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team. Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL. They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro. The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers. Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.
PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins
I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in. But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook. I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough. But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards. Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers. Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year. Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of. Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.
Other NFL in 10 or less
49ers -16.5 over Jaguars Not taking the Jags again until they cover.
LIONS -3 over Cowboys No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.
Giants +6 over EAGLES First win inspires Giants to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.
Bills +12 over SAINTS Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.
BRONCOS -13 over Redskins Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.
Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 18-16-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-9
Season Total: 54-49-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS
No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay. I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though. But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance. He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way. Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson. Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine. Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help. In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.
RAIDERS +3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games. The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's. These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired. I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.
Panthers -6 over BUCS
Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game. The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game. Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm. The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles. Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely. Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield. Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's. But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown. Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.
Seahawks -11 over RAMS
Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team. Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL. They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro. The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers. Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.
PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins
I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in. But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook. I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough. But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards. Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers. Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year. Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of. Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.
Other NFL in 10 or less
49ers -16.5 over Jaguars Not taking the Jags again until they cover.
LIONS -3 over Cowboys No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.
Giants +6 over EAGLES First win inspires Giants to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.
Bills +12 over SAINTS Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.
BRONCOS -13 over Redskins Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.
Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 18-16-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-9
Season Total: 54-49-3
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