2013 NFL Season Totals and Pick'em Results

With the 2013 NFL regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start let's take a look at how we did with our predictions for the season totals.

2013 NFL Season Totals	Line	Projected	Actual
Arizona Cardinals	5.5 (o -180)	6	10
Atlanta Falcons	9.5 (o -145)	10	4
Baltimore Ravens	8.5 (o +115)	9	8
Buffalo Bills	6 (u -120)	4	6
Carolina Panthers	7.5 (u +115)	6	12
Chicago Bears	8.5 (u +120)	7	7
Cincinnati Bengals	8.5 (o -200)	9	11
Cleveland Browns	6.5 (u +135)	5	4
Dallas Cowboys	8.5 (u +110)	8	8
Denver Broncos	12	12	13
Detroit Lions	8.5 (u -115)	7	7
Green Bay Packers	10.5 (o -105)	11	8
Houston Texans	10.5 (o -110)	12	2
Indianapolis Colts	8.5 (u -115)	7	11
Jacksonville Jaguars	5 (u -130)	4	4
Kansas City Chiefs	7.5 (o -175)	8	11
Miami Dolphins	7.5 (u +125)	6	8
Minnesota Vikings	7 (u -125)	6	6
New England Patriots	11 (o +110)	12	12
New Orleans Saints	9.5 (u +110)	9	11
New York Giants	8.5 (u even)	8	7
New York Jets	6 (u -170)	4	8
Oakland Raiders	5 (u -185)	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	7.5 (u -130)	6	10
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.5 (o +140)	10	8
San Diego Chargers	7.5 (u -155)	5	9
San Francisco 49ers	11	11	11
Seattle Seahawks	10.5 (o -130)	13	14
St Louis Rams	7.5 (u -110)	5	7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.5 (u +105)	6	4
Tennessee Titans	6.5 (u -110)	6	7
Washington Redskins	8.5 (u -110)	8	3

Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line).  The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals.  However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.

To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line.  Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost.  I used $20 as my base bet.  If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20.  Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.

                                               Win/Loss     Correct Picks     Wrong Picks     PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals     $234.00               48                        33                  4

2013 Pick'em Totals               $258.00              135                      111                10


Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away.  I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks.  Here are those numbers.

	2013 Season Totals
Fav Cover	122
Dog Cover	119
Home Cover	133
Road Cover	112
Home/Fav Cover	85
Road/Dog Cover	73
Home/Dog Cover	44
Road/Fav Cover	36

This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out.  Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally.  To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook.  This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.

NFL Week 5 Pick'em

The first quarter of the season is over and we finished on our best week.  We were 11-3-1 on the day and 3-1-1 in the SuperContest.  The Seahawks and Cardinals had huge 4th quarter comebacks to avoid losses against Houston and Tampa Bay, but other than that most of our wins went surprisingly smooth.  As for the home-dogs I mentioned last week, they went 4-3 and continued their winning ways.  This week we have a lot of big name matchups which will make for some tough selections but hopefully we'll have another good week.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BROWNS -3.5 over Bills

My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season.  It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami.  It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota.  Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won.  This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover.  The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run.  Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.

Chiefs -3 over TITANS

The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype.  Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS).  But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle.  KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18.  Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot.  It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.

CARDINALS +2 over Panthers

Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that.  Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm.  And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg).  Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be.  But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road.  That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team.  The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.

Saints PK over BEARS

In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears.  New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins.  This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards.  But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games.  Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game.  However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler.  With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired.  Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler.  Take the better QB in this PICK game.

GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles

This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question.  The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively.  New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7.  But yes, I'm still picking them.  The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5.  All they need is some home cooking to get their first win.  And what better way to do it than against a rival.  Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable.  Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game.  We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.


Other NFL in 10 or less

DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens     Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.

Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS     Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.

Patriots +2 over BENGALS     Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
                                                   back.

COLTS +3 over Seahawks     Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.

Lions +7 over PACKERS     Big number for high scoring rivals.

RAIDERS +4 over Chargers     Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.

Broncos -7 over COWBOYS     Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
                                                    Julius Thomas.

Texans +6.5 over 49ERS     Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.

FALCONS -10 over Jets     Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.

SuperContest
Last Week:  3-1-1
Season Total:  11-8-1

Overall
Last Week:  11-3-1
Season Total:  35-24-3