Well, it feels good to get rid of that losing streak. We had a nice 9-5 overall week but the SuperContest picks could have been better than 3-2 (thanks a lot Panthers). The New England Patriots had a huge comeback win over the Denver Broncos 34-31 in OT. Tom Brady's offense was lost in the first half falling behind 24-0. However, he rallied his team to score 31 straight points. But, it was a muffed punt in overtime that set up the Patriots for the game winning field goal. This wasn't the only game to go into OT either as Minnesota and Green Bay played to a tie. This was the second tie in two years. Each team scored a field goal on their first possession of the extra time but couldn't score again. I think they need to get rid of ties in the NFL altogether but a debate for another time. We'll stick with our shorter breakdowns again this week because we all know that gamblers are superstitious and like to stay with what works.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
EAGLES -3 over Cardinals Foles has Eagles hot and coming off bye.
CHARGERS -1 over Bengals Chargers solid at home, Bengals struggle on the road.
VIKINGS PK over Bears Bears can't stop run, Peterson runs wild
BILLS -3 over Falcons Atlanta having all kinds of trouble.
Jaguars +7 over BROWNS Jags playing better and Weedon back as starter for Browns.
Other NFL
Packers +6.5 over LIONS Remember what happened last time Matt Flynn started against Detroit?
Raiders +9.5 over COWBOYS Raiders control pace with Jennings ground game.
RAVENS -3 over Steelers Steelers playing well but Ravens tough at home.
Titans +4 over COLTS Titans 5-0 ATS away, Colts reeling.
CHIEFS +4.5 over Broncos KC has been waiting to get revenge.
Bucs +8 over PANTHERS Bucs on 3 game win streak, stay within two scores.
JETS -1.5 over Dolphins Can't figure out Jets, let's try'em again.
49ERS -8 over Rams SF Defense too much for Rams possibly without Zac Stacy.
Patriots -7.5 over TEXANS Texans 0-6 ATS at home, biggest disappointment in NFL.
REDSKINS +1 over Giants Both teams suck, go with who's at home.
Saints +5.5 over SEAHAWKS Brees and offense will keep it close.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 31-26-3
Overall
Last Week: 9-5
Season Total: 87-82-6
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Eagles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Eagles. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Sunday, November 17, 2013
NFL Week 11 Pick'em
We are officially in danger mode as we have entered to red in both the SuperContest and overall. Because of sportsbooks taking what is known as "juice" a bettor must win around 54% to make a profit. Right now we are exactly at 52% for the SuperContest and 50% overall. Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season, on the road in Tennessee. A game I'm sure knocked a lot of people out of their survival pools. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also got their first win on Monday night against a Miami Dolphins team that is still all sorts of messed up. The big game on the slate this week is the Denver Broncos hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Nobody expected KC to be the lone undefeated team left but we'll see what they, as this defense, are made of on Sunday night. Let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
Sunday, November 10, 2013
NFL Week 10 Pick'em
As we make the turn for the second half of the season we are barely keeping our heads above water. Sitting at 24-20-1 for the SuperContest and 68-61-3 overall we are in the positive but not by much. We had some bad luck last week with the Chargers not being able to punch it in from the one-yard line then subsequently losing to the Redskins in OT. But I can't complain too much as we were on the right side of luck and Andrew Luck led the Colts on a huge comeback against the Texans with a perfect two-point conversion pass late to cover the 2.5 spread. This week all eyes will be on our Detroit Lions as they head to Chicago for a battle of first place in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers getting hurt Monday night against the Bears, the division is ripe for Detroit or Chicago to take control for a playoff push. Gotta be quick with this one.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
Friday, November 1, 2013
NFL Week 9 Pick'em
Finally off the schneid! After three straight losing weeks we managed to go 8-5. We lost the pick, but I have to start by talking about the amazing performance by the Detroit Lions and Calvin Johnson. In an instant classic with the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions went 80 yards in 50 seconds with no timeouts to edge the Cowboys 31-30. Johnson was the big story finishing with 329 yards, seven yards shy of an NFL record, and one touchdown. But let's not forget about the job Matthew Stafford did all game either. He was especially great on the final drive hitting Kris Durham with pinpoint precision down the left sideline for 40 yards and faking out everyone as he sneaked the ball over the goal line instead spiking it to stop the clock. But enough about last week, let's go for two in a row and start a new winning streak.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Titans -2.5 over RAMS
Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings. Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year. Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye. Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers. Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night. Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts. The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries. Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out. This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's. But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole. Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.
BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens
This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals. They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way. The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year. Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC. As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City. I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.
Chargers PK over REDSKINS
RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago. Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games. Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past. The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them. Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.
Colts -2.5 over TEXANS
The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston. This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver. Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year. They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub. The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of. This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.
PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons Two teams going in opposite directions.
COWBOYS -10 over Vikings Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.
Saints -6.5 over JETS Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.
SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS Steelers D should keep this one close.
Bears +11 over PACKERS Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 21-18-1
Overall
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 62-54-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Titans -2.5 over RAMS
Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings. Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year. Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye. Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers. Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night. Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts. The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries. Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out. This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's. But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole. Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.
BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens
This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals. They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way. The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year. Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC. As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City. I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.
Chargers PK over REDSKINS
RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago. Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games. Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past. The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them. Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.
Colts -2.5 over TEXANS
The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston. This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver. Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year. They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub. The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of. This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.
PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons Two teams going in opposite directions.
COWBOYS -10 over Vikings Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.
Saints -6.5 over JETS Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.
SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS Steelers D should keep this one close.
Bears +11 over PACKERS Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 21-18-1
Overall
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 62-54-3
Friday, October 11, 2013
NFL Week 6 Pick'em
After our best week, we follow that up with our worst. But, our SuperContest picks were great going 4-1. There were some big story lines as well as Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a shootout for the ages, the Jets had a two-minute comeback, while Julio Jones is lost for the year, and two unbeaten teams went down. This week everybody is talking about the largest spread in NFL history. The Denver Broncos opened as a 28-point favorite at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was shocked in Week 3 when the Seahawks were almost a 20-point favorite against the Jags, but this is crazy. College football has bigger numbers than this all the time (every Oregon game), but we just don't see spreads like this in the NFL. Other than that there aren't too many good games outside of New Orleans-New England and Washington-Dallas. So, let's improve on last week's poor performance.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
Thursday, October 3, 2013
NFL Week 5 Pick'em
The first quarter of the season is over and we finished on our best week. We were 11-3-1 on the day and 3-1-1 in the SuperContest. The Seahawks and Cardinals had huge 4th quarter comebacks to avoid losses against Houston and Tampa Bay, but other than that most of our wins went surprisingly smooth. As for the home-dogs I mentioned last week, they went 4-3 and continued their winning ways. This week we have a lot of big name matchups which will make for some tough selections but hopefully we'll have another good week.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -3.5 over Bills
My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season. It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami. It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota. Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won. This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover. The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run. Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.
Chiefs -3 over TITANS
The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype. Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS). But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle. KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18. Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot. It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.
CARDINALS +2 over Panthers
Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that. Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm. And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg). Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be. But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road. That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.
Saints PK over BEARS
In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears. New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins. This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards. But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games. Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game. However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler. With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired. Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler. Take the better QB in this PICK game.
GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles
This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question. The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively. New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7. But yes, I'm still picking them. The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5. All they need is some home cooking to get their first win. And what better way to do it than against a rival. Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game. We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.
Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.
Patriots +2 over BENGALS Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
back.
COLTS +3 over Seahawks Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.
Lions +7 over PACKERS Big number for high scoring rivals.
RAIDERS +4 over Chargers Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.
Broncos -7 over COWBOYS Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
Julius Thomas.
Texans +6.5 over 49ERS Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.
FALCONS -10 over Jets Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-1-1
Season Total: 11-8-1
Overall
Last Week: 11-3-1
Season Total: 35-24-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -3.5 over Bills
My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season. It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami. It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota. Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won. This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover. The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run. Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.
Chiefs -3 over TITANS
The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype. Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS). But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle. KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18. Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot. It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.
CARDINALS +2 over Panthers
Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that. Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm. And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg). Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be. But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road. That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.
Saints PK over BEARS
In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears. New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins. This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards. But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games. Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game. However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler. With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired. Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler. Take the better QB in this PICK game.
GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles
This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question. The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively. New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7. But yes, I'm still picking them. The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5. All they need is some home cooking to get their first win. And what better way to do it than against a rival. Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game. We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.
Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.
Patriots +2 over BENGALS Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
back.
COLTS +3 over Seahawks Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.
Lions +7 over PACKERS Big number for high scoring rivals.
RAIDERS +4 over Chargers Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.
Broncos -7 over COWBOYS Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
Julius Thomas.
Texans +6.5 over 49ERS Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.
FALCONS -10 over Jets Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-1-1
Season Total: 11-8-1
Overall
Last Week: 11-3-1
Season Total: 35-24-3
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