We are officially in danger mode as we have entered to red in both the SuperContest and overall. Because of sportsbooks taking what is known as "juice" a bettor must win around 54% to make a profit. Right now we are exactly at 52% for the SuperContest and 50% overall. Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season, on the road in Tennessee. A game I'm sure knocked a lot of people out of their survival pools. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also got their first win on Monday night against a Miami Dolphins team that is still all sorts of messed up. The big game on the slate this week is the Denver Broncos hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Nobody expected KC to be the lone undefeated team left but we'll see what they, as this defense, are made of on Sunday night. Let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
Showing posts with label San Francisco 49ers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Francisco 49ers. Show all posts
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Sunday, November 10, 2013
NFL Week 10 Pick'em
As we make the turn for the second half of the season we are barely keeping our heads above water. Sitting at 24-20-1 for the SuperContest and 68-61-3 overall we are in the positive but not by much. We had some bad luck last week with the Chargers not being able to punch it in from the one-yard line then subsequently losing to the Redskins in OT. But I can't complain too much as we were on the right side of luck and Andrew Luck led the Colts on a huge comeback against the Texans with a perfect two-point conversion pass late to cover the 2.5 spread. This week all eyes will be on our Detroit Lions as they head to Chicago for a battle of first place in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers getting hurt Monday night against the Bears, the division is ripe for Detroit or Chicago to take control for a playoff push. Gotta be quick with this one.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
2013 NFL Midseason Totals
With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out. The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets. They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line. We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year. But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid. There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 8 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Monday, September 9, 2013
2013 NFL Season Totals
With the NFL season upon us I've decided to focus a lot of attention to sports betting. The NFL is the most bet on sport and is talked about quite often. In the first installment, I've gone through all 32 teams and gave you
my predictions for their total wins. The odds associated are straight off the
sheet from Caesars Palace. Some teams have a real good value (Browns under 6.5 +135) whereas others were jumped on early and the price was really affected (Chiefs over 7.5 -175). For those that don't know what I'm talking about, if you took the Chiefs to win more than 7.5 games, you would have to bet $175 to win $100. Whereas if you took the Browns to win less than 6.5 games, you would win $1.35 for every $1 you bet, which means if you bet $100 you would win $135. Here's what I came up with.
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | ||
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | ||
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | ||
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 |
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Super Bowl XLVII...eh 47...Storylines
The Har-Bowl, The Bro Bowl, The Super Baugh, or just The Super Bowl. Whatever you want to call it this year, it's time for America's biggest sporting event. This year we have the Baltimore Ravens taking on the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans and the first ever meeting between head coaching brothers. Now throw in this being the last game of Ray Lewis' illustrious career and his name being in another scandal, this time for performance enhancing drug use. Also, backup quarterback turned starter, Colin Kaepernick is leading the 49ers and could possibly revolutionize the position. The Super Bowl is never short of story lines and this year is no exception.
These two teams are almost complete mirror images of each other. Both have strong defenses, rely on the run and when the season started, both had quarterbacks that were asked to control the game and limit turnovers. Alex Smith started the year at QB for the Niners until he suffered a concussion Week 9 against St. Louis. At that time Smith was leading the league in completion percentage and San Francisco was 6-2. In came Colin Kaepernick and the emergence of a young, agile quarterback made this team more potent offensively. Both QB's started nine games and with Smith the 49ers offense averaged 23.6 points a game, with Kaepernick they improved to 28.5 per game. Kaepernick provides a run element that every defense must prepare for. With him at the helm, we've seen San Francisco run a lot of QB options out of the pistol formation. This is the same offense Kaepernick ran at Nevada and could possibly change the perception of the QB position. Back in the 90s the Niners won two Super Bowls with Steve Young who could gain yards with his legs but he was known as a scrambler. We were amazed by Robert Griffin III's running ability in the regular season and now we are seeing it with Kaepernick as he rushed for 181 yards against Green Bay in the Divisional Round. If he is able to pull off a Super Bowl victory it will get rid of any doubt there might be of a option quarterback making it in the NFL.
In Ray Lewis' last playoff run he's leading the NFL in postseason tackles with 44. However, his final curtain call is in the midst of PED allegations. Lewis suffered a torn triceps Week 6 and is under suspicion of taking Deer Antler Spray, a banned substance in the NFL, to help with his recovery. Lewis has adamantly denied using the spray since the story broke. I have a feeling this story will die quickly before the actual game. The media is so enamored with Ray Lewis (he's been their golden child throughout the playoffs) and don't want too much negative light being shined on him right now. He has had a great career and is a sure fire hall of famer there's no question about it but he has had a checkered past. Let's not forget he was on trial for an accessory to murder, however he did beat the case. I know Wes Welker's wife hasn't forgotten. The thing that helped Lewis regain popularity was his admittance to being wrong in the situation right away. If after the Super Bowl it comes out that the report of his PED use is true I honestly wouldn't be surprised. No athletes in any other sport as a whole have the size and speed of football players. It's actually amazing to me that more stories of steroid use haven't came out in the NFL. With how much scrutiny baseball gets, a sport where PED's wouldn't help as much as in football, it makes me wonder if the NFL is keeping certain things under wraps. But, maybe that's just my conspiracy theory. Regardless of the truth to the story, no matter what this is Ray Lewis' last game in the NFL and whatever his off the field issues were it's been a pleasure to watch him play and he will go down as one of the best defensive players ever.
Back to the actual Super Bowl, I think it's all going to come down to which quarterback will be able to control the game against these tough defenses. Colin Kaepernick has been playing extremely well, but he's about to face a Ravens defense that is finally healthy and playing how we are used to seeing them. As I mentioned in a previous posting, multiple Ravens have missed time on the defensive side of the ball including Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata. So their numbers aren't as good as past years but they have been playing like it lately. Other than given up a kick and punt return for TD against Denver, this defense has been tough to score on. They have forced eight turnovers in three games and held a potent Patriots offense scoreless in the second half of the AFC Conference Championship. If they are able to stop Kaepernick's mobility it will give them a great chance of winning. Baltimore's QB Joe Flacco has also been playing well in the playoffs but hasn't been matched up with a defense like the 49ers. Flacco has been solid, throwing for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now he must face Patrick Willis and the best defense in the league. Like the Ravens, the Niners defense has pro-bowlers at every level with Justin Smith on the D-line, Willis, Navarro Bowman and Aldon Smith at linebacker, and Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner at DB. So far Flacco's decision making has been stellar and he's been connecting with his all his receivers for big plays each game. I think this will be a close one all the way til the end each team holding a lead in the 4th quarter. But, ultimately the Baltimore Ravens will stop Kaepernick and the 49ers offense enough times to pull off the Super Bowl upset 24-21 and send Ray Lewis out like John Elway with his second championship.
These two teams are almost complete mirror images of each other. Both have strong defenses, rely on the run and when the season started, both had quarterbacks that were asked to control the game and limit turnovers. Alex Smith started the year at QB for the Niners until he suffered a concussion Week 9 against St. Louis. At that time Smith was leading the league in completion percentage and San Francisco was 6-2. In came Colin Kaepernick and the emergence of a young, agile quarterback made this team more potent offensively. Both QB's started nine games and with Smith the 49ers offense averaged 23.6 points a game, with Kaepernick they improved to 28.5 per game. Kaepernick provides a run element that every defense must prepare for. With him at the helm, we've seen San Francisco run a lot of QB options out of the pistol formation. This is the same offense Kaepernick ran at Nevada and could possibly change the perception of the QB position. Back in the 90s the Niners won two Super Bowls with Steve Young who could gain yards with his legs but he was known as a scrambler. We were amazed by Robert Griffin III's running ability in the regular season and now we are seeing it with Kaepernick as he rushed for 181 yards against Green Bay in the Divisional Round. If he is able to pull off a Super Bowl victory it will get rid of any doubt there might be of a option quarterback making it in the NFL.
In Ray Lewis' last playoff run he's leading the NFL in postseason tackles with 44. However, his final curtain call is in the midst of PED allegations. Lewis suffered a torn triceps Week 6 and is under suspicion of taking Deer Antler Spray, a banned substance in the NFL, to help with his recovery. Lewis has adamantly denied using the spray since the story broke. I have a feeling this story will die quickly before the actual game. The media is so enamored with Ray Lewis (he's been their golden child throughout the playoffs) and don't want too much negative light being shined on him right now. He has had a great career and is a sure fire hall of famer there's no question about it but he has had a checkered past. Let's not forget he was on trial for an accessory to murder, however he did beat the case. I know Wes Welker's wife hasn't forgotten. The thing that helped Lewis regain popularity was his admittance to being wrong in the situation right away. If after the Super Bowl it comes out that the report of his PED use is true I honestly wouldn't be surprised. No athletes in any other sport as a whole have the size and speed of football players. It's actually amazing to me that more stories of steroid use haven't came out in the NFL. With how much scrutiny baseball gets, a sport where PED's wouldn't help as much as in football, it makes me wonder if the NFL is keeping certain things under wraps. But, maybe that's just my conspiracy theory. Regardless of the truth to the story, no matter what this is Ray Lewis' last game in the NFL and whatever his off the field issues were it's been a pleasure to watch him play and he will go down as one of the best defensive players ever.
Back to the actual Super Bowl, I think it's all going to come down to which quarterback will be able to control the game against these tough defenses. Colin Kaepernick has been playing extremely well, but he's about to face a Ravens defense that is finally healthy and playing how we are used to seeing them. As I mentioned in a previous posting, multiple Ravens have missed time on the defensive side of the ball including Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata. So their numbers aren't as good as past years but they have been playing like it lately. Other than given up a kick and punt return for TD against Denver, this defense has been tough to score on. They have forced eight turnovers in three games and held a potent Patriots offense scoreless in the second half of the AFC Conference Championship. If they are able to stop Kaepernick's mobility it will give them a great chance of winning. Baltimore's QB Joe Flacco has also been playing well in the playoffs but hasn't been matched up with a defense like the 49ers. Flacco has been solid, throwing for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now he must face Patrick Willis and the best defense in the league. Like the Ravens, the Niners defense has pro-bowlers at every level with Justin Smith on the D-line, Willis, Navarro Bowman and Aldon Smith at linebacker, and Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner at DB. So far Flacco's decision making has been stellar and he's been connecting with his all his receivers for big plays each game. I think this will be a close one all the way til the end each team holding a lead in the 4th quarter. But, ultimately the Baltimore Ravens will stop Kaepernick and the 49ers offense enough times to pull off the Super Bowl upset 24-21 and send Ray Lewis out like John Elway with his second championship.
Friday, January 11, 2013
NFL Divisional Round
The first weekend of the playoffs went according to schedule as all the favorites moved on. This weekend however will be a little more difficult to call as all remaining teams have at least one win against each other. Three of the four games are rematches from earlier in the year as Baltimore-Denver, Green Bay-San Francisco, and Houston-New England have all played this season. As for Seattle-Atlanta, the Seahawks will again be thought of as the road team with the best odds to escape with a win.
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sat.
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Denver this weekend looking to get revenge for a 34-17 defeat the Broncos handed them on December 16th. After an easy win over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Ravens will now have to contend with a team that ranks 4th in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Baltimore looked good running the ball last week as they had 172 yards rushing, 103 by Bernard Pierce. Joe Flacco continued his first round winning streak throwing for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 12 completions. That game also marked Ray Lewis' last home game of his stellar career and it was good to see him leave on a high note. But now they face the Denver Broncos, the hottest team in football, on an 11-game win streak. In their first meeting the Broncos controlled both sides of the ball while building a 31-3 lead as they scored on the ground, through the air and on defense. Along with Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning is a candidate for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year as he threw for 4659 yards and 37 TD's. Coming off of serious neck surgery, we weren't sure how Peyton would perform but he had arguably his best season ever with his highest completion percentage and second highest totals in yards and touchdowns. He wasn't their only bright spot either as the defense played at a high level all season ranking 3rd in opponents passing and rushing yards per game. In previous years Baltimore would have a chance in this game because they would hold the advantage on D but not this year. Denver is too balanced offensively, even with their starting running back Willis McGahee out, and their defense made the Ravens struggle badly at home. If this game was being played in Maryland I'd give Baltimore a chance to win, but it's not. I give the edge to Peyton Manning, who led the league in Quarterback Rating at 84.1, and the Denver D.
Game: Denver
Bet: Baltimore
Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) -3 at 8:00pm Sat.
In the first game of the season the San Francisco 49ers traveled to Green Bay and left with a 30-22 victory. Now the Packers will travel to San Fran in the Divisional Round of the playoffs looking to return the favor. Last week the Packers coasted to a 24-10 win over Minnesota and their backup QB Joe Webb. They will face another QB that began the season as a backup this week but Colin Kaepernick has proved himself to be a viable starter in the NFL. Kaepernick played sparingly until getting the start week 11 against the Chicago Bears and led the Niners to a 32-7 W, throwing for 243 yards and 2 TD's. He went on to finish the season 5-2 as a starter and pushed Alex Smith to the role of backup QB. In the teams first meeting it was Smith that threw for 211 yards and 2 TD's while Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards and a TD. But Kaepernick provides a running threat that Green Bay will have to worry about if they want to pull off the upset. While he is making his first post-season start, Aaron Rodgers will be making his eighth and his team is getting healthy at the right time. The problem they've had is a lack of running game and when going up against a defense like the Niners, you can't be one dimensional. SF ranks 3rd in opponents total yards and 2nd in opponents points at 17.1 per game, being led by Aldon Smith who was 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 19.5. Rodgers and Green Bay's passing offense is so efficient they usually can overcome not having a consistent rushing attack. However, The key this game with be the Packers defense. If they are able to contain Gore and stymie the Niners through the air they have a great chance because you know Rodgers is going to put up points even against one of the best defenses in the league. I feel like Green Bay's defense will step up and pressure the inexperienced Kaepernick into bad throws. This should be a great game coming down to the wire with Rodgers leading his team to the NFC Championship game.
Game: Green Bay
Bet: Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) -2.5 at 1:00pm Sun.
Is this the year Matt Ryan will win his first playoff game? After making the playoffs 3 of his first 4 years Matty Ice is still looking for his first win. He put up the best numbers of his career with 4,719 yards and 32 TD's but will have his hands full with Seattle's defense. The Seahawks were able to advance after a 24-14 win in Washington, Marshawn Lynch ran for 132 yards and 1 TD. The Falcons defense is tough to get a handle on because by a yardage standpoint they rank 24th but only give up 18.7 points per game, good for 5th. Stopping Lynch will be their #1 priority as he's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 5 games. While Atlanta has to try to stop one player, Seattle will be asked to stop two dynamic wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. White and Jones combined for 2,549 yards and 17 TD's and will be matched up against Seattle Corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. I believe this matchup will decide the game. Receivers are usually bigger than corners, but Browner (6'4", 221 lbs) and Sherman (6'3", 195) are not your average corners and have a size advantage over almost every receiver tandem in the league. While White and Jones both had great seasons, for some reason Jones played much better on the road than at home. On the road Jones had 751 yards and 8 TD's while only totaling 447 and 2 TD's in the Georgia Dome. If Atlanta is able to complete passes down field for big plays they have a great chance of winning. As discussed last week, Seattle and quarterback Russell Wilson have struggled on the road. They were able to get a road playoff win last week but I don't see it happening again. A lot of people don't have faith in the Falcons but they were 7-1 at home and if their offense can score on this tough D, Matt Ryan will get that elusive first playoff win.
Game: Atlanta
Bet: Atlanta
Houston Texans (12-4) @ New England (12-4) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sun.
Their meeting in the regular season was one of the most anticipated because Houston was coming in with an 11-1 record and road game in New England on Monday night would tell us if they were for real. The Texans played uninspiring football and were smashed 42-14 behind Tom Brady's 296 yards and 4 TD's. Houston will have to find some way to slow down Brady as he and the Patriots have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL at 34.8 points per game. We all know what to expect out of Brady but running back Stevan Ridley was a pleasant surprise for New England rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 TD's. The Pats started the season 3-3 (losing those games by a combined 4 points) but finished strong at 9-1 and now are now poised for another Super Bowl push. I'm not going to lie, I really don't think the Texans have much of a chance in this game. For Houston, everything starts with their running game but in the first meeting Arian Foster only managed 46 yards. Partly because New England jumped out to a 28-0 lead and Houston was forced to throw to get back in the game. I see this same scenario playing out again. New England's defense never gets enough credit but they rank 9th in opponents rushing and points against while creating 41 turnovers, 2nd behind Chicago. Year in and year out the Patriots are the most consistent team in the league. New England will handle Houston and with ease and with a win, Tom Brady will pass Joe Montana for most career playoff wins by a QB.
Game: New England
Bet: New England
Last Week
Straight Up: 4-0
Against The Spread: 2-2
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sat.
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Denver this weekend looking to get revenge for a 34-17 defeat the Broncos handed them on December 16th. After an easy win over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Ravens will now have to contend with a team that ranks 4th in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Baltimore looked good running the ball last week as they had 172 yards rushing, 103 by Bernard Pierce. Joe Flacco continued his first round winning streak throwing for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 12 completions. That game also marked Ray Lewis' last home game of his stellar career and it was good to see him leave on a high note. But now they face the Denver Broncos, the hottest team in football, on an 11-game win streak. In their first meeting the Broncos controlled both sides of the ball while building a 31-3 lead as they scored on the ground, through the air and on defense. Along with Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning is a candidate for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year as he threw for 4659 yards and 37 TD's. Coming off of serious neck surgery, we weren't sure how Peyton would perform but he had arguably his best season ever with his highest completion percentage and second highest totals in yards and touchdowns. He wasn't their only bright spot either as the defense played at a high level all season ranking 3rd in opponents passing and rushing yards per game. In previous years Baltimore would have a chance in this game because they would hold the advantage on D but not this year. Denver is too balanced offensively, even with their starting running back Willis McGahee out, and their defense made the Ravens struggle badly at home. If this game was being played in Maryland I'd give Baltimore a chance to win, but it's not. I give the edge to Peyton Manning, who led the league in Quarterback Rating at 84.1, and the Denver D.
Game: Denver
Bet: Baltimore
Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) -3 at 8:00pm Sat.
In the first game of the season the San Francisco 49ers traveled to Green Bay and left with a 30-22 victory. Now the Packers will travel to San Fran in the Divisional Round of the playoffs looking to return the favor. Last week the Packers coasted to a 24-10 win over Minnesota and their backup QB Joe Webb. They will face another QB that began the season as a backup this week but Colin Kaepernick has proved himself to be a viable starter in the NFL. Kaepernick played sparingly until getting the start week 11 against the Chicago Bears and led the Niners to a 32-7 W, throwing for 243 yards and 2 TD's. He went on to finish the season 5-2 as a starter and pushed Alex Smith to the role of backup QB. In the teams first meeting it was Smith that threw for 211 yards and 2 TD's while Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards and a TD. But Kaepernick provides a running threat that Green Bay will have to worry about if they want to pull off the upset. While he is making his first post-season start, Aaron Rodgers will be making his eighth and his team is getting healthy at the right time. The problem they've had is a lack of running game and when going up against a defense like the Niners, you can't be one dimensional. SF ranks 3rd in opponents total yards and 2nd in opponents points at 17.1 per game, being led by Aldon Smith who was 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 19.5. Rodgers and Green Bay's passing offense is so efficient they usually can overcome not having a consistent rushing attack. However, The key this game with be the Packers defense. If they are able to contain Gore and stymie the Niners through the air they have a great chance because you know Rodgers is going to put up points even against one of the best defenses in the league. I feel like Green Bay's defense will step up and pressure the inexperienced Kaepernick into bad throws. This should be a great game coming down to the wire with Rodgers leading his team to the NFC Championship game.
Game: Green Bay
Bet: Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) -2.5 at 1:00pm Sun.
Is this the year Matt Ryan will win his first playoff game? After making the playoffs 3 of his first 4 years Matty Ice is still looking for his first win. He put up the best numbers of his career with 4,719 yards and 32 TD's but will have his hands full with Seattle's defense. The Seahawks were able to advance after a 24-14 win in Washington, Marshawn Lynch ran for 132 yards and 1 TD. The Falcons defense is tough to get a handle on because by a yardage standpoint they rank 24th but only give up 18.7 points per game, good for 5th. Stopping Lynch will be their #1 priority as he's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 5 games. While Atlanta has to try to stop one player, Seattle will be asked to stop two dynamic wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. White and Jones combined for 2,549 yards and 17 TD's and will be matched up against Seattle Corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. I believe this matchup will decide the game. Receivers are usually bigger than corners, but Browner (6'4", 221 lbs) and Sherman (6'3", 195) are not your average corners and have a size advantage over almost every receiver tandem in the league. While White and Jones both had great seasons, for some reason Jones played much better on the road than at home. On the road Jones had 751 yards and 8 TD's while only totaling 447 and 2 TD's in the Georgia Dome. If Atlanta is able to complete passes down field for big plays they have a great chance of winning. As discussed last week, Seattle and quarterback Russell Wilson have struggled on the road. They were able to get a road playoff win last week but I don't see it happening again. A lot of people don't have faith in the Falcons but they were 7-1 at home and if their offense can score on this tough D, Matt Ryan will get that elusive first playoff win.
Game: Atlanta
Bet: Atlanta
Houston Texans (12-4) @ New England (12-4) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sun.
Their meeting in the regular season was one of the most anticipated because Houston was coming in with an 11-1 record and road game in New England on Monday night would tell us if they were for real. The Texans played uninspiring football and were smashed 42-14 behind Tom Brady's 296 yards and 4 TD's. Houston will have to find some way to slow down Brady as he and the Patriots have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL at 34.8 points per game. We all know what to expect out of Brady but running back Stevan Ridley was a pleasant surprise for New England rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 TD's. The Pats started the season 3-3 (losing those games by a combined 4 points) but finished strong at 9-1 and now are now poised for another Super Bowl push. I'm not going to lie, I really don't think the Texans have much of a chance in this game. For Houston, everything starts with their running game but in the first meeting Arian Foster only managed 46 yards. Partly because New England jumped out to a 28-0 lead and Houston was forced to throw to get back in the game. I see this same scenario playing out again. New England's defense never gets enough credit but they rank 9th in opponents rushing and points against while creating 41 turnovers, 2nd behind Chicago. Year in and year out the Patriots are the most consistent team in the league. New England will handle Houston and with ease and with a win, Tom Brady will pass Joe Montana for most career playoff wins by a QB.
Game: New England
Bet: New England
Last Week
Straight Up: 4-0
Against The Spread: 2-2
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