With the 2013 NFL regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start let's take a look at how we did with our predictions for the season totals.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals |
Line |
Projected |
Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals |
5.5 (o -180) |
6 |
10 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
9.5 (o -145) |
10 |
4 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
8.5 (o +115) |
9 |
8 |
| Buffalo Bills |
6 (u -120) |
4 |
6 |
| Carolina Panthers |
7.5 (u +115) |
6 |
12 |
| Chicago Bears |
8.5 (u +120) |
7 |
7 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
8.5 (o -200) |
9 |
11 |
| Cleveland Browns |
6.5 (u +135) |
5 |
4 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
8.5 (u +110) |
8 |
8 |
| Denver Broncos |
12 |
12 |
13 |
| Detroit Lions |
8.5 (u -115) |
7 |
7 |
| Green Bay Packers |
10.5 (o -105) |
11 |
8 |
| Houston Texans |
10.5 (o -110) |
12 |
2 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
8.5 (u -115) |
7 |
11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
5 (u -130) |
4 |
4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
7.5 (o -175) |
8 |
11 |
| Miami Dolphins |
7.5 (u +125) |
6 |
8 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
7 (u -125) |
6 |
6 |
| New England Patriots |
11 (o +110) |
12 |
12 |
| New Orleans Saints |
9.5 (u +110) |
9 |
11 |
| New York Giants |
8.5 (u even) |
8 |
7 |
| New York Jets |
6 (u -170) |
4 |
8 |
| Oakland Raiders |
5 (u -185) |
3 |
4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
7.5 (u -130) |
6 |
10 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
9.5 (o +140) |
10 |
8 |
| San Diego Chargers |
7.5 (u -155) |
5 |
9 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
11 |
11 |
11 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
10.5 (o -130) |
13 |
14 |
| St Louis Rams |
7.5 (u -110) |
5 |
7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
7.5 (u +105) |
6 |
4 |
| Tennessee Titans |
6.5 (u -110) |
6 |
7 |
| Washington Redskins |
8.5 (u -110) |
8 |
3 |
Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line). The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals. However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.
To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line. Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost. I used $20 as my base bet. If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20. Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.
Win/Loss Correct Picks Wrong Picks PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals $234.00 48 33 4
2013 Pick'em Totals $258.00 135 111 10
Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away. I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks. Here are those numbers.
|
2013 Season Totals |
| Fav Cover |
122 |
| Dog Cover |
119 |
| Home Cover |
133 |
| Road Cover |
112 |
| Home/Fav Cover |
85 |
| Road/Dog Cover |
73 |
| Home/Dog Cover |
44 |
| Road/Fav Cover |
36 |
This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out. Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally. To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook. This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.
