The national championship game had the potential to be a classic matchup between the best offensive and defensive teams in the country, and it didn't disappoint. The Louisville Cardinals were able to survive a first half push by Michigan, and an unlikely hero, to win the schools third title and coach Rick Pitino's second in an 82-76 victory. Also, Pitino became the first coach ever to win a national championship at two different schools, his other was with Kentucky in 1996.
The big question heading into the game was how will Michigan handle the relentless pressure from Louisville. Right from the jump Trey Burke was out to show why he was the consensus Player of the Year. Burke shook off any remaining rust from his 1-8 night against Syracuse to hit his first three shots and score Michigan's first seven points, matching his total in the Final Four game. The opening five minutes were fast and furious as both teams were trying to run and when the TV timeout came it was almost as everybody watching needed to catch their breath.
Unfortunately for Burke, he was called for hist second foul early in the first half on a questionable call, one of many for both teams. But luckily for Michigan their freshman backup point guard, Spike Albrecht, who averaged 1.8 points a game went off for a career high 17 points on four 3-pointers. He started his 3 barrage while Burke was still in the game and continued once he had left. At one point all five freshmen were on the court together and brought Michigan fans to memories of the Fab Five, the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. With Burke on the bench, Michigan was able to build a 12 point lead, 35-23, with about three minutes left in the half.
For 17 minutes of the first half Louisville struggled to get anything going on offense as Michigan wasn't turning the ball over and the best scorer in the tournament, Russ Smith, couldn't make a shot. Just like in the Wichita State game, it was Luke Hancock that brought the Cardinals back in the blink of an eye. He matched Albrecht with hitting four straight 3s of his own in a two minute stretch before the half scoring 14 straight for Louisville. The Cardinals finally took the lead with a Montrezl Harrell lob from Peyton Siva. Next, Glenn Robinson III hit two free throws and Michigan had a 38-37 edge after the most entertaining half in the entire tournament. Amazing plays by bench players and huge swings by both teams only left us wanting more.
The second half starts and for Louisville, Russ Smith (who finished with 9 points on 3-16 shooting) is on the bench. This is a guy that had at least 21 in every game of the tournament, but Pitino stayed with the hot hand of Hancock. Burke was back in the lineup though and picked up right where he left off hitting a deep 3 early. But it was Siva and Chane Behanan that started to control the paint and in turn the game.
Michigan had no answer for Siva's penetration and playmaking ability in the second half. The senior guard was getting to the rim at will scoring 14 or his 18 points in the latter half of the game also adding six boards, five assists, and four steals. As for Behanan, he became a man amongst boys in the post scoring 11 of his 15 points and grabbing 11 of his 12 boards (including all seven of his offensive rebounds) in the second half. Gorgui Dieng also decided to show up after a MIA performance in the Final Four game where he missed his only field goal attempt. Dieng was not only a defensive and rebounding presence (three blocks and eight rebounds, five offensive) but a facilitator as well leading the Cardinals with six assists.
Even after all of this, Michigan was still hanging around within striking distance. But a turning point in the game was with just over five minutes to go and Louisville up 67-64. Albrecht misses a layup which turns into a break for Siva and Burke measures him up for one of the biggest blocks/plays of the tournament but is called for a foul. It could have been a huge momentum shift in Michigan's favor but instead it led to Louisville going on a run for their biggest lead of the game, 76-66. If no foul is called there and Michigan goes on to win a title, that play would be just as big as the 3-pointer he hit to tie the game against Kansas.
A lot of talk during the game was about how bad the refs were and for good reason because they missed a lot of calls for both teams. Less than two minutes into the game they missed an obvious goal tend that was called a block by Dieng on Tim Hardaway Jr. Two fouls on Burke were very questionable, including his second that sat him the rest of the first half on a Hancock ball fake and the aforementioned block on Siva. Late in the game Mitch McGary clearly kicked the ball and no whistle blew. Behanan was getting absolutely mugged in the paint while still getting offensive put-backs. And every time Burke or Siva drove the lane they ended up on their back but rarely was a call made. Both teams have serious complaints and it's a shame that in a game of such high importance the refs had as much influence as they did.
In the end the better team won as Michigan just wasn't able to get rebounds or stop penetration in the second half. Burke tried to do everything he could to keep his team in it but wasn't getting enough help as Louisville proved to have too many weapons on offense. The Final Four Most Outstanding Player went to Luke Hancock who put in 22 points with 5-5 from downtown. Hancock became the first non-starter to win the award. It was announced at halftime that Burke won the Naismith Award, sweeping all of the Player of the Year awards. He finished with 24 points, but who knows how this game would have played out if he didn't get into early foul trouble. Tournament standout, Mitch McGary, had a very pedestrian showing after putting up 16 ppg and 11 rpg coming into the title game. He also was suffering from foul trouble and only managed six points and six rebounds. Louisville was looked at as the best team in the country coming into the tournament and showed it, running through opponents early and coming back in the later round. After the horrific injury to Kevin Ware you might have thought this was going to be a team of destiny. The Cardinals and coach Pitino, along with Ware, cut down the nets to cap off an amazing game, tournament and year of college basketball.
Showing posts with label michigan wolverines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label michigan wolverines. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Monday, April 8, 2013
What To Watch: Michigan Wolverines vs Louisville Cardinals
It all comes down to this. Two teams, one title. For Louisville's Rick Pitino it would be his second, but Michigan's John Beilein is still looking for his first. These teams have had opposing styles all year as Louisville has the #1 defense and Michigan has the #1 offense in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. But both teams have picked it up on the other side of the ball in the tournament. The Cardinals have upped their points per game to 79 while the Wolverines have kept four of their five opponents under 60. To get to the title game both needed their benches to provide huge lifts when the starters were faltering. For Louisville it was Luke Hancock, who seemed to do everything right when Russ Smith and Peyton Siva couldn't find driving lanes. Nik Stauskas had his worst shooting performance of the year but Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht hit timely 3-pointers to help the Wolverines. Both squads will again need a total team if they want to go home with a championship.
Player To Watch
Louisville - Peyton Siva doesn't put up the best numbers but he is just as important to this team as Russ Smith. Siva is the engine that makes this machine go. Not only does he run the offense but spearheads their pressure defense. Siva will not be able to match Burke in the scoring column but he can definitely make it harder for the POY to get his own buckets. Siva needs to bring the pressure early and often on Burke to get the ball out of his hands. Michigan struggles when Burke is not able to at least set up the offense and Siva will be the catalyst to stop that. Also, Siva went 1-9 against Wichita State with only three assists and if Louisville wants a title they need their point guard to be closer to his 10 points, six assists average.
Michigan - Trey Burke is raking in all the post season awards and will have to be on top of his game to take the one he covets most, the National Championship. Against Syracuse's long 2-3 zone, Burke had his worst game of the year going 1-8 with seven points and four assists. To get a title Michigan can't have another performance like that or the Wolverines will be in trouble. But more than scoring, Burke needs to take care of the ball because turnovers lead to points when going up against Louisville. He's done a great job all year as he's posted the best assist/turnover ratio in the country but he will now be going up against the best defense in the nation. When Michigan faced a similar pressure team in VCU in the round of 32 the Wolverines had 12 turnovers, seven from Burke alone.
Key Matchup
Louisville pressure vs Michigan ball handling. These are the two strengths of each team. Louisville is second in the nation in steals and Michigan first in turnovers per game. The Cardinals defense has forced an average of 15.4 TOs and created 11.2 steals in five games in the tournament. Not only do they take the ball from you but most likely they will score off those turnovers. Michigan on the other hand only averages 9.4 giveaways a game and Burke is as good they get when it comes to protecting the ball. Can Siva and Smith force Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. into bad decisions or will the latter minimize mistakes and keep the game in their control?
Prediction
In a battle of strength vs strength it usually come down to pace of play because most defensive teams like to slow it down (Syracuse) whereas offensive teams like to get it and go. But both teams like to run. So pay attention to which teams "weakness" stands out. Can Louisville score on the much improved Michigan defense or will the Wolverines shut down the Cardinals? Let's not forget in the Big Ten tournament Michigan gave up 51 points in the second half to a Wisconsin team that failed to score more than 46 in its last two losses of the year. In the tournament, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of nine points in the second half. The Cardinals offense comes and goes with Russ Smith as he's scored over 20 in every game of the tourney but if he doesn't get help from the likes of Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Hancock, this team will have a hard time keeping up with Michigan. The one thing Michigan has that they didn't during the regular season is the amazing play of Mitch McGary. Averaging 16 ppg and 11.6 rpg in the tournament, he has become the inside presence Michigan has been looking for all year to compliment its guard play. Gorgui Dieng will have his hands full down low with the bigger and stronger McGary. Also, I feel like Michigan won't wilt under the pressure the Cardinals bring. Look at how well Wichita State State looked when they didn't turn the ball over. For 33 minutes they had four TOs and 12 point lead, then proceeded to give the ball away seven times in the last seven minutes and lose the game. It's been a long time coming for Michigan. The Fab Five in 1993 was the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. Since then they've had to deal with NCAA sanctions, bad coaches and high profile players not wanting to come to a school with a lot of baggage. One of the youngest teams in the country will do what the Fab Five couldn't and cut down the nets. Michigan will earn it's second National Championship in a hard fought game 68-64.
Player To Watch
Louisville - Peyton Siva doesn't put up the best numbers but he is just as important to this team as Russ Smith. Siva is the engine that makes this machine go. Not only does he run the offense but spearheads their pressure defense. Siva will not be able to match Burke in the scoring column but he can definitely make it harder for the POY to get his own buckets. Siva needs to bring the pressure early and often on Burke to get the ball out of his hands. Michigan struggles when Burke is not able to at least set up the offense and Siva will be the catalyst to stop that. Also, Siva went 1-9 against Wichita State with only three assists and if Louisville wants a title they need their point guard to be closer to his 10 points, six assists average.
Michigan - Trey Burke is raking in all the post season awards and will have to be on top of his game to take the one he covets most, the National Championship. Against Syracuse's long 2-3 zone, Burke had his worst game of the year going 1-8 with seven points and four assists. To get a title Michigan can't have another performance like that or the Wolverines will be in trouble. But more than scoring, Burke needs to take care of the ball because turnovers lead to points when going up against Louisville. He's done a great job all year as he's posted the best assist/turnover ratio in the country but he will now be going up against the best defense in the nation. When Michigan faced a similar pressure team in VCU in the round of 32 the Wolverines had 12 turnovers, seven from Burke alone.
Key Matchup
Louisville pressure vs Michigan ball handling. These are the two strengths of each team. Louisville is second in the nation in steals and Michigan first in turnovers per game. The Cardinals defense has forced an average of 15.4 TOs and created 11.2 steals in five games in the tournament. Not only do they take the ball from you but most likely they will score off those turnovers. Michigan on the other hand only averages 9.4 giveaways a game and Burke is as good they get when it comes to protecting the ball. Can Siva and Smith force Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. into bad decisions or will the latter minimize mistakes and keep the game in their control?
Prediction
In a battle of strength vs strength it usually come down to pace of play because most defensive teams like to slow it down (Syracuse) whereas offensive teams like to get it and go. But both teams like to run. So pay attention to which teams "weakness" stands out. Can Louisville score on the much improved Michigan defense or will the Wolverines shut down the Cardinals? Let's not forget in the Big Ten tournament Michigan gave up 51 points in the second half to a Wisconsin team that failed to score more than 46 in its last two losses of the year. In the tournament, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of nine points in the second half. The Cardinals offense comes and goes with Russ Smith as he's scored over 20 in every game of the tourney but if he doesn't get help from the likes of Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Hancock, this team will have a hard time keeping up with Michigan. The one thing Michigan has that they didn't during the regular season is the amazing play of Mitch McGary. Averaging 16 ppg and 11.6 rpg in the tournament, he has become the inside presence Michigan has been looking for all year to compliment its guard play. Gorgui Dieng will have his hands full down low with the bigger and stronger McGary. Also, I feel like Michigan won't wilt under the pressure the Cardinals bring. Look at how well Wichita State State looked when they didn't turn the ball over. For 33 minutes they had four TOs and 12 point lead, then proceeded to give the ball away seven times in the last seven minutes and lose the game. It's been a long time coming for Michigan. The Fab Five in 1993 was the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. Since then they've had to deal with NCAA sanctions, bad coaches and high profile players not wanting to come to a school with a lot of baggage. One of the youngest teams in the country will do what the Fab Five couldn't and cut down the nets. Michigan will earn it's second National Championship in a hard fought game 68-64.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Final Four Recap
Michigan survives late Syracuse surge to reach championship game
If you told me Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Nik Stauskas would be a combined 5-29 from the field and Caris LeVert would outscore Burke, I would think Michigan lost by double digits. But that wasn't the case because the Wolverines used defense and offensive rebounding to overcome Syracuse 61-56. In the first half Michigan was down 17-15 before ending the half on a 21-8 run spurred by the bench. In the second, Syracuse slowly fought back and made it close in the waning minutes. Cuse started pressing late and the pressure seemed to be getting to the Wolverines. With less than a minute left the Orange started fouling and Michigan only made 4-8 free throws down the stretch to keep the game undecided. But the controversy came on a questionable call with 19 seconds left and Cuse down two, after Burke split a pair at the line. Brandon Triche drove the lane and Jordan Morgan stepped in for a charge. The block/charge is the hardest call to make in basketball and refs like to swallow their whistles late. But with how much contact there was, something had to be called and the ref went with a charge. After another split at the stripe, this time by Jon Horford, Syracuse was down three but turned the ball over and Morgan finished the game with a breakaway dunk. The two main stories leading up to this game was how will Michigan handle the Orange 2-3 zone and who will win the point guard matchup between Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams. Let's talk about the zone first and in the first half Michigan was tearing it apart. Mitch McGary became a play maker from the high post with a career high six assists. Reserves Spike Albrecht and LeVert came in to hit two huge 3s each to provide a much needed lift from the bench. Stauskas was looked at to be a key part to beating the zone after he went 6-6 in the Elite 8 from beyond arc but last night he missed all four of his attempts. When the 3-point shot wasn't on, McGary and Glenn Robinson III where able to keep possessions alive with five offensive rebounds apiece. As for the great PG matchup, neither was impressive. Burke was 1-8 from the field with seven points and four assists, while MCW went 1-6 with two points and two assists. Not only did MCW account for six total points, but he also had five turnovers and fouled out. It was a night he'd much rather forget. The one player that kept Syracuse in the game the whole night was C.J. Fair. He realized he had a height and athletic advantage over anybody that Michigan put on him as he put up 22 and got the Orange back in the game in the second half. Triche played good down the stretch as well, finishing with 11 points and 8 assists. But, again for Michigan it was McGary, who might be having the best tournament of anybody so far. He had his third double-double with 10 and 12 boards. They now head to National Championship game 20 years after the Fab Five last did it for U of M. This was only the second game of the year Burke scored single-digits and if Michigan wants its second national title, they will need more out of the National Player of the Year. On a side note, Michigan called its last timeout with 1:51 to go in a very tight game. I started having flashbacks of 20 years ago and Chris Webber's fatal timeout when they didn't have any. I just pictured in my head Mitch McGary (who wears #4 like Webber) finding himself trapped in a corner and calling one more TO.
Louisville uses their bench to rally past the Shockers
Wichita State was ready to continue shocking the world for about 30 of the 40 minutes in their Final Four game against top seed Louisville. That was until the pressure ramped up and Luke Hancock took over. In the first half Wichita State did exactly what they needed to, handle the Louisville pressure and limit turnovers. While doing so the Shockers were able to hold a 26-25 lead and only had four turnovers. Louisville has owned the second half of games in the tournament but WSU came out ready to play and opened up a 47-35 with about 13 minutes left. The dominate Cardinals now look vulnerable but an unsuspecting player stepped up, Luke Hancock. Just like coming to the aid of Kevin Ware after his injury, Hancock did not shy away from the big moment and carried his team. The junior captain averages seven points a game but scored 14 of his 20 in the second half to bring Louisville back on a 21-8 run to take a 56-55 lead with 6:30 left. It seemed like this was the run we were all waiting for Louisville to make and they were going to close it out easily. But Cleanthony Early didn't stop fighting. Down five with less than two minutes left, Early scored six straight for the Shockers as they were extending the game with fouls. This game had its share of controversy as well when it was Hancock at the line with a two point lead and eight seconds to go. He makes the first but misses the second and Wichita State's Ron Baker grabs the long rebound but Hancock ties him up for the jumpball. The possession arrow favored Louisville and Russ Smith hit a free throw to give us our final score 72-68. Now some think the whistle was blown too early and Baker had actually wrestled the ball away, but my problem is with the alternating possession rule of jumpballs. You are telling me that refs are that bad in throwing the ball straight up in the air that we can't have an actual jumpball after tie-ups? Nonetheless, Louisville gets the win and a chance to play for a championship even with their starters being out played by the bench. The starters were 10-33 from the field for 38 points, the bench was 12-16 for 34 points. Smith scored 21 but on 6-17 shooting and only 5-12 from the line, Peyton Siva was 1-9 for seven points and three assists, while Gorgui Dieng was almost non-existent missing the only shot he took but grabbing six rebounds. Along with Hancock's 20, Montrezl Harrell had eight and Tim Henderson (who only had 16 points all year) hit two back-to-back 3s when Louisville was down 12. For the Shockers, Early finished with 24 and 10 rebounds and Carl Hall added 13 points. Malcolm Armstead was the MOP of the West region but only managed 1-10 shooting with seven assists. Louisville looked shaky for 3/4s of the game but when they needed it, their defense created turnovers and their bench became the scoring threats. They move on to play Michigan, a team that commits the fewest turnovers in the country, which should make for a great matchup.
If you told me Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Nik Stauskas would be a combined 5-29 from the field and Caris LeVert would outscore Burke, I would think Michigan lost by double digits. But that wasn't the case because the Wolverines used defense and offensive rebounding to overcome Syracuse 61-56. In the first half Michigan was down 17-15 before ending the half on a 21-8 run spurred by the bench. In the second, Syracuse slowly fought back and made it close in the waning minutes. Cuse started pressing late and the pressure seemed to be getting to the Wolverines. With less than a minute left the Orange started fouling and Michigan only made 4-8 free throws down the stretch to keep the game undecided. But the controversy came on a questionable call with 19 seconds left and Cuse down two, after Burke split a pair at the line. Brandon Triche drove the lane and Jordan Morgan stepped in for a charge. The block/charge is the hardest call to make in basketball and refs like to swallow their whistles late. But with how much contact there was, something had to be called and the ref went with a charge. After another split at the stripe, this time by Jon Horford, Syracuse was down three but turned the ball over and Morgan finished the game with a breakaway dunk. The two main stories leading up to this game was how will Michigan handle the Orange 2-3 zone and who will win the point guard matchup between Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams. Let's talk about the zone first and in the first half Michigan was tearing it apart. Mitch McGary became a play maker from the high post with a career high six assists. Reserves Spike Albrecht and LeVert came in to hit two huge 3s each to provide a much needed lift from the bench. Stauskas was looked at to be a key part to beating the zone after he went 6-6 in the Elite 8 from beyond arc but last night he missed all four of his attempts. When the 3-point shot wasn't on, McGary and Glenn Robinson III where able to keep possessions alive with five offensive rebounds apiece. As for the great PG matchup, neither was impressive. Burke was 1-8 from the field with seven points and four assists, while MCW went 1-6 with two points and two assists. Not only did MCW account for six total points, but he also had five turnovers and fouled out. It was a night he'd much rather forget. The one player that kept Syracuse in the game the whole night was C.J. Fair. He realized he had a height and athletic advantage over anybody that Michigan put on him as he put up 22 and got the Orange back in the game in the second half. Triche played good down the stretch as well, finishing with 11 points and 8 assists. But, again for Michigan it was McGary, who might be having the best tournament of anybody so far. He had his third double-double with 10 and 12 boards. They now head to National Championship game 20 years after the Fab Five last did it for U of M. This was only the second game of the year Burke scored single-digits and if Michigan wants its second national title, they will need more out of the National Player of the Year. On a side note, Michigan called its last timeout with 1:51 to go in a very tight game. I started having flashbacks of 20 years ago and Chris Webber's fatal timeout when they didn't have any. I just pictured in my head Mitch McGary (who wears #4 like Webber) finding himself trapped in a corner and calling one more TO.
Louisville uses their bench to rally past the Shockers
Wichita State was ready to continue shocking the world for about 30 of the 40 minutes in their Final Four game against top seed Louisville. That was until the pressure ramped up and Luke Hancock took over. In the first half Wichita State did exactly what they needed to, handle the Louisville pressure and limit turnovers. While doing so the Shockers were able to hold a 26-25 lead and only had four turnovers. Louisville has owned the second half of games in the tournament but WSU came out ready to play and opened up a 47-35 with about 13 minutes left. The dominate Cardinals now look vulnerable but an unsuspecting player stepped up, Luke Hancock. Just like coming to the aid of Kevin Ware after his injury, Hancock did not shy away from the big moment and carried his team. The junior captain averages seven points a game but scored 14 of his 20 in the second half to bring Louisville back on a 21-8 run to take a 56-55 lead with 6:30 left. It seemed like this was the run we were all waiting for Louisville to make and they were going to close it out easily. But Cleanthony Early didn't stop fighting. Down five with less than two minutes left, Early scored six straight for the Shockers as they were extending the game with fouls. This game had its share of controversy as well when it was Hancock at the line with a two point lead and eight seconds to go. He makes the first but misses the second and Wichita State's Ron Baker grabs the long rebound but Hancock ties him up for the jumpball. The possession arrow favored Louisville and Russ Smith hit a free throw to give us our final score 72-68. Now some think the whistle was blown too early and Baker had actually wrestled the ball away, but my problem is with the alternating possession rule of jumpballs. You are telling me that refs are that bad in throwing the ball straight up in the air that we can't have an actual jumpball after tie-ups? Nonetheless, Louisville gets the win and a chance to play for a championship even with their starters being out played by the bench. The starters were 10-33 from the field for 38 points, the bench was 12-16 for 34 points. Smith scored 21 but on 6-17 shooting and only 5-12 from the line, Peyton Siva was 1-9 for seven points and three assists, while Gorgui Dieng was almost non-existent missing the only shot he took but grabbing six rebounds. Along with Hancock's 20, Montrezl Harrell had eight and Tim Henderson (who only had 16 points all year) hit two back-to-back 3s when Louisville was down 12. For the Shockers, Early finished with 24 and 10 rebounds and Carl Hall added 13 points. Malcolm Armstead was the MOP of the West region but only managed 1-10 shooting with seven assists. Louisville looked shaky for 3/4s of the game but when they needed it, their defense created turnovers and their bench became the scoring threats. They move on to play Michigan, a team that commits the fewest turnovers in the country, which should make for a great matchup.
Friday, April 5, 2013
What To Watch: Michigan Wolverines vs Syracuse Orange
In this game we have a battle of strengths, the classic offense vs defense matchup when Michigan takes on Syracuse. This is the first time two 4-seeds meet in the Final Four and it could be a memorable one. Michigan is averaging 79 points a game and Syracuse is holding opponents to just under 46 a game. Can Michigan score on the Orange stingy D? Will Syracuse be able to keep pace with the Wolverines? John Beilein and Jim Boeheim have history from when Beilein was coaching West Virgina in the Big East. Boeheim holds a 9-0 record.
How They Got Here
Michigan - South Dakota State 71-56, VCU 78-53, Kansas 87-85 OT, Florida 79-59.
Against VCU and Florida they played two of their best games of the season as they got contributions from the entire team on both ends of the court. The Kansas game was a whole other story. Mitch McGary was solid throughout but Trey Burke carried the team late. We all remember this, right?
Syracuse - Montana 81-34, California 66-60, Indiana 61-50, Marquette 55-39.
All four teams left in the bracket have pretty much dominated every opponent they've faced and that's no different for Syracuse. Their defense has been tremendous, holding Montana, Indiana and Marquette to season low's in scoring. Their zone defense has been ran to perfection so far.
Player To Watch
Mitch McGary has vastly improved his play in the tournament but Glenn Robinson III has been the x-factor for Michigan all year. Robinson will be more important than any other game as he is one of the main keys to causing havoc for the Syracuse 2-3. He will be looked upon to get in the middle of the zone and hit mid range jumpers. Also, step outside to knock in a few corner triples to stretch the defense. But Michigan will need him to hit the boards hard. Robinson will have to use his speed and athleticism against the bigger Syracuse front line to keep possessions alive if his teammates aren't making outside shots.
Key Matchup
Trey Burke vs Michael Carter-Williams. Burke is racking up all kinds of awards this year, while Carter-Williams has gone somewhat under the radar to have a stellar sophomore season of his own. Here are the two by the numbers...
PPG RPG APG SPG TO FG% 3P%
Burke - 18.8 3.1 6.8 1.6 2.2 46.4 38.1
MCW - 12.1 4.9 7.4 2.8 3.4 39.7 29.7
As you can see Burke has the advantage in all the shooting categories and turnovers while MCW takes rebounds, assists and steals. Since Syracuse plays zone MCW won't have to guard Burke one-on-one but his length on the top of that 2-3 has been big all year. He almost takes three steals a game because of his 6'6 frame with an even longer wingspan. Burke is going to have to find creases to penetrate and clear passing lanes against the size of MCW. Also, it provides somewhat of a mismatch on the other end as Carter-Williams has a six inch height advantage over Burke. Don't be surprise to Burke matched up with the smaller Brandon Triche while Tim Hardaway Jr checks MCW.
Prediction
This game is definitely tough to call, it's basically which teams strength will prove stronger. I believe Michigan, with their outside shooting, is going to be the one to escape with the win. In the Elite 8 Nik Stauskas finally found his stroke again, hitting on all six of his 3-point attempts. Along with Burke and Hardaway, this team has multiple outside threats. Let's not forget about Michigan's defense in the tournament either. Aside from the Kansas game, the Wolverines have been stingy as well, keeping their other three opponents under 60 points a game. I don't think this will be a shootout by any means but Michigan has the better offense. And in a game when buckets will be tough to come by, I have to go with the team that can put up points.
Game: Michigan
Bet: Michigan -1.5
How They Got Here
Michigan - South Dakota State 71-56, VCU 78-53, Kansas 87-85 OT, Florida 79-59.
Against VCU and Florida they played two of their best games of the season as they got contributions from the entire team on both ends of the court. The Kansas game was a whole other story. Mitch McGary was solid throughout but Trey Burke carried the team late. We all remember this, right?
Syracuse - Montana 81-34, California 66-60, Indiana 61-50, Marquette 55-39.
All four teams left in the bracket have pretty much dominated every opponent they've faced and that's no different for Syracuse. Their defense has been tremendous, holding Montana, Indiana and Marquette to season low's in scoring. Their zone defense has been ran to perfection so far.
Player To Watch
Mitch McGary has vastly improved his play in the tournament but Glenn Robinson III has been the x-factor for Michigan all year. Robinson will be more important than any other game as he is one of the main keys to causing havoc for the Syracuse 2-3. He will be looked upon to get in the middle of the zone and hit mid range jumpers. Also, step outside to knock in a few corner triples to stretch the defense. But Michigan will need him to hit the boards hard. Robinson will have to use his speed and athleticism against the bigger Syracuse front line to keep possessions alive if his teammates aren't making outside shots.
Key Matchup
Trey Burke vs Michael Carter-Williams. Burke is racking up all kinds of awards this year, while Carter-Williams has gone somewhat under the radar to have a stellar sophomore season of his own. Here are the two by the numbers...
PPG RPG APG SPG TO FG% 3P%
Burke - 18.8 3.1 6.8 1.6 2.2 46.4 38.1
MCW - 12.1 4.9 7.4 2.8 3.4 39.7 29.7
As you can see Burke has the advantage in all the shooting categories and turnovers while MCW takes rebounds, assists and steals. Since Syracuse plays zone MCW won't have to guard Burke one-on-one but his length on the top of that 2-3 has been big all year. He almost takes three steals a game because of his 6'6 frame with an even longer wingspan. Burke is going to have to find creases to penetrate and clear passing lanes against the size of MCW. Also, it provides somewhat of a mismatch on the other end as Carter-Williams has a six inch height advantage over Burke. Don't be surprise to Burke matched up with the smaller Brandon Triche while Tim Hardaway Jr checks MCW.
Prediction
This game is definitely tough to call, it's basically which teams strength will prove stronger. I believe Michigan, with their outside shooting, is going to be the one to escape with the win. In the Elite 8 Nik Stauskas finally found his stroke again, hitting on all six of his 3-point attempts. Along with Burke and Hardaway, this team has multiple outside threats. Let's not forget about Michigan's defense in the tournament either. Aside from the Kansas game, the Wolverines have been stingy as well, keeping their other three opponents under 60 points a game. I don't think this will be a shootout by any means but Michigan has the better offense. And in a game when buckets will be tough to come by, I have to go with the team that can put up points.
Game: Michigan
Bet: Michigan -1.5
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Elite 8 Day 2 Recap
Louisville recovers after gruesome injury to get past Duke
It was a simple play that turned into a horrific injury for Louisville guard Kevin Ware. With 6:33 left in the first half, Ware jumped to contest a 3-pointer but when he landed his leg buckled and his tibia was fractured. It's a play that happens hundreds of times in each game but I don't think anybody has ever seen anything like that injury in a basketball game. I'm not going to post a link because it's seriously that bad, but If you don't have a weak stomach you can search for it yourself. At that point Louisville was up 21-20 and took a 35-32 lead into halftime. While on the stretcher about to be taken off the court, Ware kept repeating, "just go win the game," and after composing themselves in the locker room Louisville came out strong in the second half. About four minutes in, the score was tied at 42, but the Cardinals went on a 20-4 and never looked back as they cruised to an 85-63 win. Russ Smith continued his hot streak with 24 points and Peyton Siva contributed 16. Gorgui Dieng, who missed the first meeting with Duke, added 14 points, 11 boards and four blocks. The Blue Devils struggled all game from the outside going only 4-16 from 3. Mason Plumlee was the lone bright spot with 17 points and 12 rebounds. A big mention has to go to Louisville reserve Luke Hancock. When Ware went down with his injury, it was right in front of the Louisville bench. Once his teammates saw his leg they either ran away or instantly fell to the floor. But, Hancock came to the side of his fallen teammate to give support while the doctors worked to stabilize Ware's leg. After the initial shock to the team went away, Louisville seemed to be on a mission to win for Ware. They get the surprising Wichita State team in the Final Four, but so far nobody has been able to compete with the Cardinals.
Michigan, Nik Stauskas, shoot Florida out of the gym
After a thrilling comeback against Kansas, everybody was wondering how Michigan would fare in a quick turnaround game with Florida. From the opening tip the Wolverines showed they were ready while the Gators couldn't get anything going. Michigan jumped out to an early 13-0 lead with Mitch McGary scoring eight of those points. Then Nik Stauskas caught fire. The freshman sharp-shooter connected on 6-6 shots and 5-5 3-pointers in the first half. It seemed like every time Florida tried to get back in the game Stauskas would come through. The Gators started to close the gap to end the first half but fouled Stauskas on a 3-point attempt right before the halftime buzzer. Then in the second, Florida cut the lead to 11 with just over 16 minutes to play and again Stauskas buries a triple, he finished with 22. In the end Michigan wrapped up a Final Four birth 79-59, their first since the Fab Five in 1993. The Gators were never able to keep up offensively and learned nothing from watching Kansas dominate the paint as they were satisfied with taking jumpers all day. Florida was a popular pick by many to win the South region, mainly because Ken Pomeroy had them ranked #1 overall after the regular season. But I felt their offensive and defensive numbers were highly inflated (and deflated) due to playing in a very bad SEC. The only other team to make the tournament was Ole Miss, who did win their first game, but if they didn't beat Florida in the SEC Championship game they would have been a bubble team. After his late game heroics on Friday night, Trey Burke cooled off, only hitting 5-16 shots for 15 points. The B1G POY still controlled the game with a season high eight rebounds, seven assists, and only one turnover. Statistically Michigan is the best offensive but worst defensive team remaining. They next matchup with Syracuse and their vaunted 2-3 defense.
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It was a simple play that turned into a horrific injury for Louisville guard Kevin Ware. With 6:33 left in the first half, Ware jumped to contest a 3-pointer but when he landed his leg buckled and his tibia was fractured. It's a play that happens hundreds of times in each game but I don't think anybody has ever seen anything like that injury in a basketball game. I'm not going to post a link because it's seriously that bad, but If you don't have a weak stomach you can search for it yourself. At that point Louisville was up 21-20 and took a 35-32 lead into halftime. While on the stretcher about to be taken off the court, Ware kept repeating, "just go win the game," and after composing themselves in the locker room Louisville came out strong in the second half. About four minutes in, the score was tied at 42, but the Cardinals went on a 20-4 and never looked back as they cruised to an 85-63 win. Russ Smith continued his hot streak with 24 points and Peyton Siva contributed 16. Gorgui Dieng, who missed the first meeting with Duke, added 14 points, 11 boards and four blocks. The Blue Devils struggled all game from the outside going only 4-16 from 3. Mason Plumlee was the lone bright spot with 17 points and 12 rebounds. A big mention has to go to Louisville reserve Luke Hancock. When Ware went down with his injury, it was right in front of the Louisville bench. Once his teammates saw his leg they either ran away or instantly fell to the floor. But, Hancock came to the side of his fallen teammate to give support while the doctors worked to stabilize Ware's leg. After the initial shock to the team went away, Louisville seemed to be on a mission to win for Ware. They get the surprising Wichita State team in the Final Four, but so far nobody has been able to compete with the Cardinals.
Michigan, Nik Stauskas, shoot Florida out of the gym
After a thrilling comeback against Kansas, everybody was wondering how Michigan would fare in a quick turnaround game with Florida. From the opening tip the Wolverines showed they were ready while the Gators couldn't get anything going. Michigan jumped out to an early 13-0 lead with Mitch McGary scoring eight of those points. Then Nik Stauskas caught fire. The freshman sharp-shooter connected on 6-6 shots and 5-5 3-pointers in the first half. It seemed like every time Florida tried to get back in the game Stauskas would come through. The Gators started to close the gap to end the first half but fouled Stauskas on a 3-point attempt right before the halftime buzzer. Then in the second, Florida cut the lead to 11 with just over 16 minutes to play and again Stauskas buries a triple, he finished with 22. In the end Michigan wrapped up a Final Four birth 79-59, their first since the Fab Five in 1993. The Gators were never able to keep up offensively and learned nothing from watching Kansas dominate the paint as they were satisfied with taking jumpers all day. Florida was a popular pick by many to win the South region, mainly because Ken Pomeroy had them ranked #1 overall after the regular season. But I felt their offensive and defensive numbers were highly inflated (and deflated) due to playing in a very bad SEC. The only other team to make the tournament was Ole Miss, who did win their first game, but if they didn't beat Florida in the SEC Championship game they would have been a bubble team. After his late game heroics on Friday night, Trey Burke cooled off, only hitting 5-16 shots for 15 points. The B1G POY still controlled the game with a season high eight rebounds, seven assists, and only one turnover. Statistically Michigan is the best offensive but worst defensive team remaining. They next matchup with Syracuse and their vaunted 2-3 defense.
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Saturday, March 30, 2013
What To Watch For In The Elite 8
Marquette vs Syracuse
Player To Watch - Vander Blue has done whatever this team has needed during their run in the tournament and he will have to continue that against Syracuse. Marquette is not a good 3-point shooting team (30%) but Blue has gone 5-10 in his first three games. That coupled with his penetration ability is what the Golden Eagles are going to need to breakdown the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which caused Indiana fits.
Key Matchup - These two Big East teams only played once in the regular season, a game Marquette won 74-71. This is more of a team thing than individual as it's Marquette's offense against the Syracuse 2-3 zone. In their game against Indiana, the Orange befuddled the Hoosiers because they rarely had to play against a 2-3 but Marquette sees it every year. In their first game Davante Gardner had 26 points and eight boards but everybody else struggled, especially from the 3-point line. There are multiple ways to beat the zone but hitting outside shots helps a lot and if Marquette is cold again from beyond the arc they might not be as fortunate to escape with a win.
Deciding Factor - Rebounding. Can Syracuse rebound out of their zone and can Marquette keep the bigger Orange off the offensive glass. Playing a zone makes it difficult to find a man and box out especially against hustle guys like Gardner and Jamil Wilson. But the Orange have the size to attack the offensive boards as well with Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, James Southerland and C.J. Fair. Marquette and Syracuse had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively in their first game and the team that can limit the other has a great chance of winning.
Ohio State vs Wichita State
Player To Watch - Aaron Craft has been playing great offensively and defensively in Ohio State's first three games, including hitting a game winner against Iowa State. All year he's been the x-factor for this team. We know what to expect out of Deshaun Thomas but when Craft plays like he has been this team can beat anybody in the country. He's averaging six assists and just over 11 points in the tournament. He's going up against a senior in Malcolm Armstead that's been playing well himself so it will be interesting to see if Craft's pressure will get to him.
Key Matchup - Deshaun Thomas vs Carl Hall. Thomas led the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and hasn't slowed down in the tournament. Hall played great against LaSalle, 16 and 8, but containing Thomas is a difficult task. It's tough to say that Hall can neutralize Thomas but if he keeps their matchup somewhat close Wichita State has a better chance of pulling the upset.
Deciding Factor - These teams are basically mirror images of each other if you look at stats across the board. Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and turnovers are all pretty even. To me it's going to come down to if Deshaun Thomas continues to get help on the offensive end. Whether is Craft, LaQuinton Ross, or Lezelle Smith Jr, somebody else has to score. Ross has put up 17 in the each of the last two games but if that stops OSU will struggle. Wichita State is a deeper team so if they have multiple guys contributing, as they have so far, look for them to stay with the Buckeyes until the end.
Michigan vs Florida
Player To Watch - Obviously Trey Burke. But I'm going with Mitch McGary. John Beilein finally decided to start the big freshman and it's paying off. McGary is averaging just under 20 points and a little over 12 rebounds in the tournament. All of a sudden this guy is playing like one of the best big men in the country.
Key Matchup - Trey Burke against the Gators pressure. Burke had 23 points and a huge game-tying 3-pointer from super long range against Kansas but has turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the tournament. During the regular season Burke had the best assist to turnover ratio in the country but has 13 in three games in the tournament, including seven against VCU. The Gators forced 20 turnovers against Florida Gulf Coast and have three guards that bring pressure. Burke will be the likely Player of the Year but if he continues to struggle with turnovers it can put Michigan in a bad spot.
Deciding Factor - Offense vs Defense. The Gators have won by double digits in every victory this year but when they've lost they've had a hard time scoring. Even in their win against FGCU they only shot 38%. Michigan on the other hand has hovered around 50% all tournament but their defense has been shaky all year. If Michigan can limit Florida on offense they will likely win. But Florida is ranked in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy's offense and defense and has the ability to run with the Wolverines. If it's a shooting match, the Gators defense is better and will help them prevail.
Louisville vs Duke
Player To Watch - Gorgui Dieng. In their first matchup he didn't play and Mason Plumlee had 16 and seven rebounds to help Duke get a 76-71 win. With Dieng back in the lineup he's one player that can stop Plumlee on offense and the glass. Dieng is averaging a double-double on the year with 2.5 blocks and is the inside presence Louisville needs to make a title run.
Key Matchup - Russ Smith vs Seth Curry. These are the two hottest shooters in the country as Smith is averaging 27 and Curry with 24. Both of these guys have the ability to go for 30 and very well might. If you like scoring then this is the best matchup for it from here on out.
Deciding Factor - Can Duke stop Louisville? The Cardinals entire offense has been on point as they've shot at least 54% in every game in the tourney so far. If Duke wants to win this game they have to figure out a way to slow them down because so far nobody has been able to. I expect this to be a classic game between these two teams and coaches, Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski.
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Player To Watch - Vander Blue has done whatever this team has needed during their run in the tournament and he will have to continue that against Syracuse. Marquette is not a good 3-point shooting team (30%) but Blue has gone 5-10 in his first three games. That coupled with his penetration ability is what the Golden Eagles are going to need to breakdown the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which caused Indiana fits.
Key Matchup - These two Big East teams only played once in the regular season, a game Marquette won 74-71. This is more of a team thing than individual as it's Marquette's offense against the Syracuse 2-3 zone. In their game against Indiana, the Orange befuddled the Hoosiers because they rarely had to play against a 2-3 but Marquette sees it every year. In their first game Davante Gardner had 26 points and eight boards but everybody else struggled, especially from the 3-point line. There are multiple ways to beat the zone but hitting outside shots helps a lot and if Marquette is cold again from beyond the arc they might not be as fortunate to escape with a win.
Deciding Factor - Rebounding. Can Syracuse rebound out of their zone and can Marquette keep the bigger Orange off the offensive glass. Playing a zone makes it difficult to find a man and box out especially against hustle guys like Gardner and Jamil Wilson. But the Orange have the size to attack the offensive boards as well with Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, James Southerland and C.J. Fair. Marquette and Syracuse had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively in their first game and the team that can limit the other has a great chance of winning.
Ohio State vs Wichita State
Player To Watch - Aaron Craft has been playing great offensively and defensively in Ohio State's first three games, including hitting a game winner against Iowa State. All year he's been the x-factor for this team. We know what to expect out of Deshaun Thomas but when Craft plays like he has been this team can beat anybody in the country. He's averaging six assists and just over 11 points in the tournament. He's going up against a senior in Malcolm Armstead that's been playing well himself so it will be interesting to see if Craft's pressure will get to him.
Key Matchup - Deshaun Thomas vs Carl Hall. Thomas led the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and hasn't slowed down in the tournament. Hall played great against LaSalle, 16 and 8, but containing Thomas is a difficult task. It's tough to say that Hall can neutralize Thomas but if he keeps their matchup somewhat close Wichita State has a better chance of pulling the upset.
Deciding Factor - These teams are basically mirror images of each other if you look at stats across the board. Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and turnovers are all pretty even. To me it's going to come down to if Deshaun Thomas continues to get help on the offensive end. Whether is Craft, LaQuinton Ross, or Lezelle Smith Jr, somebody else has to score. Ross has put up 17 in the each of the last two games but if that stops OSU will struggle. Wichita State is a deeper team so if they have multiple guys contributing, as they have so far, look for them to stay with the Buckeyes until the end.
Michigan vs Florida
Player To Watch - Obviously Trey Burke. But I'm going with Mitch McGary. John Beilein finally decided to start the big freshman and it's paying off. McGary is averaging just under 20 points and a little over 12 rebounds in the tournament. All of a sudden this guy is playing like one of the best big men in the country.
Key Matchup - Trey Burke against the Gators pressure. Burke had 23 points and a huge game-tying 3-pointer from super long range against Kansas but has turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the tournament. During the regular season Burke had the best assist to turnover ratio in the country but has 13 in three games in the tournament, including seven against VCU. The Gators forced 20 turnovers against Florida Gulf Coast and have three guards that bring pressure. Burke will be the likely Player of the Year but if he continues to struggle with turnovers it can put Michigan in a bad spot.
Deciding Factor - Offense vs Defense. The Gators have won by double digits in every victory this year but when they've lost they've had a hard time scoring. Even in their win against FGCU they only shot 38%. Michigan on the other hand has hovered around 50% all tournament but their defense has been shaky all year. If Michigan can limit Florida on offense they will likely win. But Florida is ranked in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy's offense and defense and has the ability to run with the Wolverines. If it's a shooting match, the Gators defense is better and will help them prevail.
Louisville vs Duke
Player To Watch - Gorgui Dieng. In their first matchup he didn't play and Mason Plumlee had 16 and seven rebounds to help Duke get a 76-71 win. With Dieng back in the lineup he's one player that can stop Plumlee on offense and the glass. Dieng is averaging a double-double on the year with 2.5 blocks and is the inside presence Louisville needs to make a title run.
Key Matchup - Russ Smith vs Seth Curry. These are the two hottest shooters in the country as Smith is averaging 27 and Curry with 24. Both of these guys have the ability to go for 30 and very well might. If you like scoring then this is the best matchup for it from here on out.
Deciding Factor - Can Duke stop Louisville? The Cardinals entire offense has been on point as they've shot at least 54% in every game in the tourney so far. If Duke wants to win this game they have to figure out a way to slow them down because so far nobody has been able to. I expect this to be a classic game between these two teams and coaches, Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski.
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Sweet 16 Day 2 Recap
Michigan rallies late to force OT and advance to Elite 8
It looked all but over when Kansas led 68-54 with less than seven minutes left in the game but that's when Michigan turned up its defense and Trey Burke played like the POY he is. In the first half Kansas couldn't miss as they shot 68% but only had a six point lead, 40-34, despite Burke going scoreless. The Jayhawks were scoring at will inside as Jeff Withey, Kevin Young and Perry Ellis appeared to be unstoppable in the paint. In the second half it was more of the same for KU for the first 12 minutes but Burke was finally starting to make a scoring impact. With Kansas up 14 late, Michigan ramped up their defense exposing the lack of point guard for KU forcing bad passes and a crucial 10-second call. The Wolverines kept fighting back but still found themselves down ten with 2:22 and then five with 21 seconds left. After Burke hit a layup, Elijah Johnson was at the free throw line shooting one-and-one. He missed, which left the door open for Burke to solidify his Player of the Year status as he hit a 30-footer to send the game to overtime. Riding that momentum, Michigan came out strong in OT creating an 87-82 lead. Kansas still had a chance to tie only down two with nine seconds left when Johnson looked to have an open lane, but he kicked it out to Naadir Tharpe who missed the game-winning 3-pointer. Somehow Michigan pulled out the win in this game. Burke scored all 23 of his points in the second half and OT but it was Mitch McGary who kept this team in it the entire game. McGary finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds as he and Burke (also 10 assists) became the fourth pair of teammates to have 20 points, 10 assists and 25 points, 10 rebounds in a NCAA tournament game. Another pair was Glen Rice and Rumeal Robinson when Michigan won the title in '89. For Kansas, their best player Ben McLemore finally showed up in the tournament putting in 20 points on 4-8 beyond the arc. Also, Withey was dominate inside with 12 points, eight boards, and five blocks. As for Johnson, he day started and ended badly. Not even two minutes into the game he was called for a flagrant foul after hitting McGary below the belt, then to end regulation he missed a free throw to ice the game, and at the end of OT he passed on what looked like to be an open game-tying layup. Throughout the year Michigan was on the wrong side of games like this (see Wisconsin and Indiana) but last night they showed their resiliency and pulled off the improbable comeback. It doesn't get any easier from here on out either, but Michigan reaches the Elite 8 for the first time since 1994.
Florida ends Florida Gulf Coast Cinderella run
For the first 15 minutes Florida Gulf Coast seemed to be on their way to another upset and continuing their Cinderella run. The Eagles were up 24-14 before the Gators ended the first half on a 16-2 run to take a 30-26 lead at the break. After that Florida never looked back. "Dunk City" was a great story while it lasted but they were severely over matched by the bigger and stronger Gators. The story was offensive rebounding for Florida and turnovers for FGCU. Florida shot only 38% but collected 13 offensive rebounds and forced 20 turnovers which led to 16 points. In the first two games Eagles PG Brett Comer averaged 12 assists and only 2.5 TOs but the Gators guards applied the pressure throughout the game making Comer turn the ball over nine times. Mike Rosario scored 15 for Florida and Casey Prather chipped in 11 off the bench. FGCU's standout guard Sherwood Brown led them with 14 and 6 rebounds. The entire country backed the small Florida school against its big brother but the talent disparity finally reared its ugly head as the Eagles tied a season low 50 points. With the 62-50 win the Gators have still claimed every victory by double-digits. A date with Michigan is scheduled for a trip to the Final Four.
Duke, Coach K outlasts Michigan State, Izzo
The battle between two of the best coaches in college basketball went the way we expected in the first half, a strategic back and forth game. Duke took an eight point lead but MSU quickly cut the deficit to one before the half 32-31. However, early in the second the Blue Devils went on a 9-0 run which Michigan State was never able to overcome as they fell to Duke 71-61. The problem for Sparty was that Seth curry was on fire. He came out in the second connecting on his first three attempts from long range and finished with 29 points on 6-9 from distance. His performance was very reminiscent of his brother Stephen for Davidson in his run to the Elite 8 in 2008. These teams matched up pretty well across the board especially with each team having two bigs, one that likes to bang (Mason Plumlee and Derrick Nix) and one that plays outside (Ryan Kelly and Adreian Payne). They pretty much cancelled each other out (Plumlee and Kelly 23 pts 14 rebs, Nix and Payne 23 pts 19 rebs), but Michigan State had nobody to help Keith Appling on the outside. The Spartans were only 3-12 from deep and their freshman stud Gary Harris missed both his 3-point attempts and was 2-11 from the field. Coach K now owns a 7-1 advantage against Tom Izzo.
Louisville, Russ Smith, easily takes care of Oregon
Louisville jumped out to a 24-8 lead in the first 10 minutes and that's all the Cardinals needed as they cruised to a 77-69 win. Russ Smith continued to be "Russdiculous" as he tied a career high 31 points on 9-16 from the field and 12-14 from the line. He's now averaging 27 in the tourney and I don't think there's another player that has looked better. Gorgui Dieng contributed 10 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks. Louisville has been pressuring teams like crazy in the tournament, taking a NCAA record 20 steals in their first game, but only forced 12 Oregon turnovers. Give a lot of credit to the Ducks as well because they were able to fight back in the second half and cut the deficit to six with 5:13 left but wouldn't get any closer. Arsalan Kazemi posted another double-double with 11 and 12, and E.J. Single had 15 points. Louisville is definitely the team to beat right now and are the only #1 seed to make it to the Elite 8. Their rewarded with facing Duke for a Final Four bid. The last time Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski met in a regional final was in 1992 and Christian Laettner hit his game-winning shot. These two teams met in November with Duke taking it 76-71, but that was without Dieng so Louisville is looking for revenge.
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It looked all but over when Kansas led 68-54 with less than seven minutes left in the game but that's when Michigan turned up its defense and Trey Burke played like the POY he is. In the first half Kansas couldn't miss as they shot 68% but only had a six point lead, 40-34, despite Burke going scoreless. The Jayhawks were scoring at will inside as Jeff Withey, Kevin Young and Perry Ellis appeared to be unstoppable in the paint. In the second half it was more of the same for KU for the first 12 minutes but Burke was finally starting to make a scoring impact. With Kansas up 14 late, Michigan ramped up their defense exposing the lack of point guard for KU forcing bad passes and a crucial 10-second call. The Wolverines kept fighting back but still found themselves down ten with 2:22 and then five with 21 seconds left. After Burke hit a layup, Elijah Johnson was at the free throw line shooting one-and-one. He missed, which left the door open for Burke to solidify his Player of the Year status as he hit a 30-footer to send the game to overtime. Riding that momentum, Michigan came out strong in OT creating an 87-82 lead. Kansas still had a chance to tie only down two with nine seconds left when Johnson looked to have an open lane, but he kicked it out to Naadir Tharpe who missed the game-winning 3-pointer. Somehow Michigan pulled out the win in this game. Burke scored all 23 of his points in the second half and OT but it was Mitch McGary who kept this team in it the entire game. McGary finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds as he and Burke (also 10 assists) became the fourth pair of teammates to have 20 points, 10 assists and 25 points, 10 rebounds in a NCAA tournament game. Another pair was Glen Rice and Rumeal Robinson when Michigan won the title in '89. For Kansas, their best player Ben McLemore finally showed up in the tournament putting in 20 points on 4-8 beyond the arc. Also, Withey was dominate inside with 12 points, eight boards, and five blocks. As for Johnson, he day started and ended badly. Not even two minutes into the game he was called for a flagrant foul after hitting McGary below the belt, then to end regulation he missed a free throw to ice the game, and at the end of OT he passed on what looked like to be an open game-tying layup. Throughout the year Michigan was on the wrong side of games like this (see Wisconsin and Indiana) but last night they showed their resiliency and pulled off the improbable comeback. It doesn't get any easier from here on out either, but Michigan reaches the Elite 8 for the first time since 1994.
Florida ends Florida Gulf Coast Cinderella run
For the first 15 minutes Florida Gulf Coast seemed to be on their way to another upset and continuing their Cinderella run. The Eagles were up 24-14 before the Gators ended the first half on a 16-2 run to take a 30-26 lead at the break. After that Florida never looked back. "Dunk City" was a great story while it lasted but they were severely over matched by the bigger and stronger Gators. The story was offensive rebounding for Florida and turnovers for FGCU. Florida shot only 38% but collected 13 offensive rebounds and forced 20 turnovers which led to 16 points. In the first two games Eagles PG Brett Comer averaged 12 assists and only 2.5 TOs but the Gators guards applied the pressure throughout the game making Comer turn the ball over nine times. Mike Rosario scored 15 for Florida and Casey Prather chipped in 11 off the bench. FGCU's standout guard Sherwood Brown led them with 14 and 6 rebounds. The entire country backed the small Florida school against its big brother but the talent disparity finally reared its ugly head as the Eagles tied a season low 50 points. With the 62-50 win the Gators have still claimed every victory by double-digits. A date with Michigan is scheduled for a trip to the Final Four.
Duke, Coach K outlasts Michigan State, Izzo
The battle between two of the best coaches in college basketball went the way we expected in the first half, a strategic back and forth game. Duke took an eight point lead but MSU quickly cut the deficit to one before the half 32-31. However, early in the second the Blue Devils went on a 9-0 run which Michigan State was never able to overcome as they fell to Duke 71-61. The problem for Sparty was that Seth curry was on fire. He came out in the second connecting on his first three attempts from long range and finished with 29 points on 6-9 from distance. His performance was very reminiscent of his brother Stephen for Davidson in his run to the Elite 8 in 2008. These teams matched up pretty well across the board especially with each team having two bigs, one that likes to bang (Mason Plumlee and Derrick Nix) and one that plays outside (Ryan Kelly and Adreian Payne). They pretty much cancelled each other out (Plumlee and Kelly 23 pts 14 rebs, Nix and Payne 23 pts 19 rebs), but Michigan State had nobody to help Keith Appling on the outside. The Spartans were only 3-12 from deep and their freshman stud Gary Harris missed both his 3-point attempts and was 2-11 from the field. Coach K now owns a 7-1 advantage against Tom Izzo.
Louisville, Russ Smith, easily takes care of Oregon
Louisville jumped out to a 24-8 lead in the first 10 minutes and that's all the Cardinals needed as they cruised to a 77-69 win. Russ Smith continued to be "Russdiculous" as he tied a career high 31 points on 9-16 from the field and 12-14 from the line. He's now averaging 27 in the tourney and I don't think there's another player that has looked better. Gorgui Dieng contributed 10 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks. Louisville has been pressuring teams like crazy in the tournament, taking a NCAA record 20 steals in their first game, but only forced 12 Oregon turnovers. Give a lot of credit to the Ducks as well because they were able to fight back in the second half and cut the deficit to six with 5:13 left but wouldn't get any closer. Arsalan Kazemi posted another double-double with 11 and 12, and E.J. Single had 15 points. Louisville is definitely the team to beat right now and are the only #1 seed to make it to the Elite 8. Their rewarded with facing Duke for a Final Four bid. The last time Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski met in a regional final was in 1992 and Christian Laettner hit his game-winning shot. These two teams met in November with Duke taking it 76-71, but that was without Dieng so Louisville is looking for revenge.
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Thursday, March 28, 2013
NCAA Tournament Day 3 Recap
Wichita State shocks the Zags
Gonzaga was pushed by Southern in their first game and they were thought of by many to be the first 1-seed to out of the tournament. Tonight they proved those people right as 9-seed Wichita State took out the top team, 76-70, in the crazy West Region. The Shockers jumped out early going up 26-13 and leading 36-31 at the half. Gonzaga came out in the second half blazing on an 18-5 run to take an eight point lead 49-41. At this point you figured the Bulldogs have found their groove and will continue their run to closeout the Shockers. But it was Rob Baker who scored eight points in 1:38 to give Wichita State the lead back at 67-63 with just under three minutes to play. Baker finished with 16 points on 4-6 from deep and Cleanthony Early also chipped in 16 with seven boards. The Shockers went 50% from the field including 14-28 on 3-pointers. On the other hand the Zags couldn't find their offense down the stretch going only 4-12 in the last 6:05. Kelly Olynyk finished with 26 points and nine rebounds.
Marquette seeks revenge on Butler
This was a rematch of a game from November in Maui that Butler won on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Rotnei Clarke for the 72-71 win. Marquette wanted to come out and get revenge for that heartbreaking loss but it was the Bulldogs that had the 35-27 lead at the break. Marquette managed to fight back in the second half and tie the game late with 1:29 left after Vander Blue hit a 3 to make it 69-69. After three free throws by the Golden Eagles, Butler's Roosevelt Jones found himself on the line with 15 seconds left. Jones made the first and The Bulldogs were down two. He missed the second and these two teams found themselves in the same position they were in at Maui. Butler got the rebound off the miss and Rotnei Clarke hoisted the potential game-winning 3 but he was off. Marquette finished off the late rally to win 74-72 behind Blue's 29 points. Clarke added 24 for Butler. The closest margin of the day before this game was Oregon over Saint Louis by 17, so this was the type of nail-biter we all expect to see in the tournament.
Michigan and Michigan State cruise to the Sweet 16
The state of Michigan sent the first two teams in the Sweet 16. Michigan led the way as the Wolverines reached the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since 1994. Coming into their game against the VCU Rams, Michigan was said to be on upset alert for the second straight game. The biggest reason is VCU's "havoc" defense and the fact that they just beat a short-handed Akron team 88-42, but Michigan had a few surprises for the Rams. The first was that to handle their press the Wolverines decided to have Tim Hardaway Jr. bring the ball up to help Trey Burke. VCU leads the nation in steals, led by Darius Theus (2.4 spg, who was on Burke), but the Wolverines took care of the ball well in the first half as Burke and Hardaway only had three turnovers combined and led 38-23 at the break. The other surprise was the play of Mitch McGary who played his most minutes of the season and rewarded John Beilein with 21 points on 10-11 shooting and 14 rebounds, both career highs. An inside presence has been UM's most glaring weakness all year, if McGary can keep this up it makes the Wolverines an even tougher out. Michigan's largest lead was 31 and the highlight of the night went to Spike Albrecht's left handed bounce pass between defenders to Glenn Robinson III for the dunk. Michigan held VCU to only 3-16 on 3-pointers and the Wolverines now gear up for Kansas.
March is the month of Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Memphis was able to keep it close in the first half (32-29) but the Spartans pulled away in the second to earn the 70-48 victory and move on to the sweet 16. Gary Harris was hitting early and often as he poured in 23 points on 4-7 from beyond the arc and Adreian Payne controlled the paint with 14 points, ten boards and a career high five blocks. MSU turned the ball over 18 times but a stifling defense held Memphis to only 29.7% from the floor. The Spartans also are going to have to check the status of Keith Appling as he left the game with a right shoulder injury. The starting point guard said he could have gone back in if needed but it will be interesting to see how it will affect him next weekend. MSU now awaits the winner of Creighton and Duke, if the Blue Devils prevail it will be a matchup between two of the best coaches in the country.
Oregon shows they are for real
Oregon felt disrespected by receiving a 12-seed and they are taking it out on their opponents. After dismantling Oklahoma State 68-55 in their first game, Saint Louis was the next victim 74-57. The Billikens were a sexy pick by a few analysts to possibly upset #1 Louisville but they never reached that matchup because the Ducks weren't having it. The game was tight for the first seven minutes when Saint Louis held an 11-10 lead. After that, Oregon finished the half on a 25-8 run and never looked back. Saint Louis had one of the best defenses in the country but the Ducks ran their offense with great efficiency as they shot 53% from the field and were 8-11 from distance. Freshman Damyean Dotson led the way for Oregon with 23 points and 5-6 on 3-pointers. Also, Arsalan Kazemi controlled the paint with eight points and 16 rebounds, including seven offense. Oregon faces Louisville next weekend and shouldn't be taken lightly by the top seed in the Midwest.
Arizona is looking like the team that started the season 14-0
Another Pac-12 team that didn't get much respect when the tournament began was Arizona. The Wildcats were once ranked as high as #4 in the country after starting 14-0 with wins over Florida, Miami FL, and San Diego State. In conference play (Oregon gave them their first loss) Arizona struggled against the top teams in the Pac-12 and ended up a 4-seed in the conference tournament, then ousted by UCLA. However, they seem to be rejuvenated in the big dance as they've won their first two games by an average of 20 points. Belmont was a popular upset pick by many but they were no match for Arizona and neither was Harvard after pulling off its major upset over New Mexico. In both games the Wildcats have been over 55% from the floor and their leading scorer Mark Lyons has been on fire. In two games Lyons has 50 points on 20-32 shooting. Arizona is back to being a team that has Final Four hopes as they seem to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time.
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Gonzaga was pushed by Southern in their first game and they were thought of by many to be the first 1-seed to out of the tournament. Tonight they proved those people right as 9-seed Wichita State took out the top team, 76-70, in the crazy West Region. The Shockers jumped out early going up 26-13 and leading 36-31 at the half. Gonzaga came out in the second half blazing on an 18-5 run to take an eight point lead 49-41. At this point you figured the Bulldogs have found their groove and will continue their run to closeout the Shockers. But it was Rob Baker who scored eight points in 1:38 to give Wichita State the lead back at 67-63 with just under three minutes to play. Baker finished with 16 points on 4-6 from deep and Cleanthony Early also chipped in 16 with seven boards. The Shockers went 50% from the field including 14-28 on 3-pointers. On the other hand the Zags couldn't find their offense down the stretch going only 4-12 in the last 6:05. Kelly Olynyk finished with 26 points and nine rebounds.
Marquette seeks revenge on Butler
This was a rematch of a game from November in Maui that Butler won on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Rotnei Clarke for the 72-71 win. Marquette wanted to come out and get revenge for that heartbreaking loss but it was the Bulldogs that had the 35-27 lead at the break. Marquette managed to fight back in the second half and tie the game late with 1:29 left after Vander Blue hit a 3 to make it 69-69. After three free throws by the Golden Eagles, Butler's Roosevelt Jones found himself on the line with 15 seconds left. Jones made the first and The Bulldogs were down two. He missed the second and these two teams found themselves in the same position they were in at Maui. Butler got the rebound off the miss and Rotnei Clarke hoisted the potential game-winning 3 but he was off. Marquette finished off the late rally to win 74-72 behind Blue's 29 points. Clarke added 24 for Butler. The closest margin of the day before this game was Oregon over Saint Louis by 17, so this was the type of nail-biter we all expect to see in the tournament.
Michigan and Michigan State cruise to the Sweet 16
The state of Michigan sent the first two teams in the Sweet 16. Michigan led the way as the Wolverines reached the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since 1994. Coming into their game against the VCU Rams, Michigan was said to be on upset alert for the second straight game. The biggest reason is VCU's "havoc" defense and the fact that they just beat a short-handed Akron team 88-42, but Michigan had a few surprises for the Rams. The first was that to handle their press the Wolverines decided to have Tim Hardaway Jr. bring the ball up to help Trey Burke. VCU leads the nation in steals, led by Darius Theus (2.4 spg, who was on Burke), but the Wolverines took care of the ball well in the first half as Burke and Hardaway only had three turnovers combined and led 38-23 at the break. The other surprise was the play of Mitch McGary who played his most minutes of the season and rewarded John Beilein with 21 points on 10-11 shooting and 14 rebounds, both career highs. An inside presence has been UM's most glaring weakness all year, if McGary can keep this up it makes the Wolverines an even tougher out. Michigan's largest lead was 31 and the highlight of the night went to Spike Albrecht's left handed bounce pass between defenders to Glenn Robinson III for the dunk. Michigan held VCU to only 3-16 on 3-pointers and the Wolverines now gear up for Kansas.
March is the month of Tom Izzo and Michigan State. Memphis was able to keep it close in the first half (32-29) but the Spartans pulled away in the second to earn the 70-48 victory and move on to the sweet 16. Gary Harris was hitting early and often as he poured in 23 points on 4-7 from beyond the arc and Adreian Payne controlled the paint with 14 points, ten boards and a career high five blocks. MSU turned the ball over 18 times but a stifling defense held Memphis to only 29.7% from the floor. The Spartans also are going to have to check the status of Keith Appling as he left the game with a right shoulder injury. The starting point guard said he could have gone back in if needed but it will be interesting to see how it will affect him next weekend. MSU now awaits the winner of Creighton and Duke, if the Blue Devils prevail it will be a matchup between two of the best coaches in the country.
Oregon shows they are for real
Oregon felt disrespected by receiving a 12-seed and they are taking it out on their opponents. After dismantling Oklahoma State 68-55 in their first game, Saint Louis was the next victim 74-57. The Billikens were a sexy pick by a few analysts to possibly upset #1 Louisville but they never reached that matchup because the Ducks weren't having it. The game was tight for the first seven minutes when Saint Louis held an 11-10 lead. After that, Oregon finished the half on a 25-8 run and never looked back. Saint Louis had one of the best defenses in the country but the Ducks ran their offense with great efficiency as they shot 53% from the field and were 8-11 from distance. Freshman Damyean Dotson led the way for Oregon with 23 points and 5-6 on 3-pointers. Also, Arsalan Kazemi controlled the paint with eight points and 16 rebounds, including seven offense. Oregon faces Louisville next weekend and shouldn't be taken lightly by the top seed in the Midwest.
Arizona is looking like the team that started the season 14-0
Another Pac-12 team that didn't get much respect when the tournament began was Arizona. The Wildcats were once ranked as high as #4 in the country after starting 14-0 with wins over Florida, Miami FL, and San Diego State. In conference play (Oregon gave them their first loss) Arizona struggled against the top teams in the Pac-12 and ended up a 4-seed in the conference tournament, then ousted by UCLA. However, they seem to be rejuvenated in the big dance as they've won their first two games by an average of 20 points. Belmont was a popular upset pick by many but they were no match for Arizona and neither was Harvard after pulling off its major upset over New Mexico. In both games the Wildcats have been over 55% from the floor and their leading scorer Mark Lyons has been on fire. In two games Lyons has 50 points on 20-32 shooting. Arizona is back to being a team that has Final Four hopes as they seem to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time.
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Wednesday, March 20, 2013
South Region Breakdown
Down in the South region the Big 12 champ Kansas sits at the 1-seed. The Jayhawks won a lot of this year but had a three game slide which included the biggest upset of the year, a loss at TCU. They seem to be on track after winning their conference tournament by an average of 19.6 points a game. Georgetown was one of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch and Otto Porter Jr. started making his case for national POY. The Florida Gators might be the team to keep your eye on though as they rank #1 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. As for Michigan, there's a lot of people that think this team is overrated, like Yahoo! Sports who consider the Wolverines to be the biggest of their bracket lames.
Top Seeds
1. Kansas
2. Georgetown
3. Florida
4. Michigan
Sleepers
Is VCU still considered a sleeper? No? OK, then Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a tough team to figure out. They started the year 15-1 but finished 5-11. They've beaten the likes of Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Memphis. The biggest problem they have is inconsistent scoring. If Andre and Austin Hollins can shoot better than their 40% averages this team has a chance to win a few games. They play good defense and Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams like to pound the glass.
First Round Upset Alerts
4 Michigan vs 13 South Dakota State - This seems to be eerily similar to last years NCAA tournament for Michigan. Ranked a 4-seed and going up against a team with a star guard. Last time it was Ohio and D.J. Cooper (the only player ever with 2,000 points, 900 assists, 500 rebounds and 300 steals) who upset the Wolverines, this year Nate Wolters and South Dakota State will get their shot. And shoot is what Wolters will do as he pours in 22.7 a game. Michigan has struggled on defense all year, but the good thing for them is they are basically playing a home game at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Oh yeah, and they have Trey Burke.
6 UCLA vs 11 Minnesota - The clear pick for an upset, not only by my standards but Las Vegas as well. The sportsbooks opened this game with Minnesota as a 2.5 point favorite. The 11 favored over the 6? When you see things like that, it usually means the professional handicappers know something. The biggest reason is UCLA's second leading scorer, Jordan Adams, suffered a broken foot in the Pac-12 tournament. Look for the Gophers to take this game.
Possible Matchups
Kansas vs North Carolina - A second round matchup that looks a like a championship game. Roy Williams going up against his old team Kansas for the third time. So far the Jayhawks and Bill Self has gotten the best of Roy's Heels in the first two showdowns. Even though they are an 8-seed UNC still has some quality players in James Michael McAdoo and Reggie Bullock. But they will have a hard time containing Ben McLemore on the perimeter (16.4 ppg) and Jeff Withey inside (8.4 rpg, 3.8 bpg).
Georgetown vs Florida - This game was scheduled for the season opener on a ship but was called at halftime. Florida is a team that scores and plays defense, but played in the SEC, the worst of the power 6 conferences. All 26 of their wins were by double-digits, which is a good and bad thing. Good for obvious reasons, bad because that means when this team plays close games they can't seem to finish (see the Arizona game). Georgetown fell short to Indiana in OT in November and lost only one more game against a ranked team the rest of the year, in the Big East semis to Syracuse in OT. The winner of this game will most likely represent the South in Atlanta and it should be a doosy.
My Pick
This is tough but...Georgetown. Kansas will have a difficult time finding points against the Hoyas and Withey will get lost trying to defend their Princeton style offense. As for Florida, it's for the sole reason of the Gators not being able to win close games. At some point in the tournament every team is faced with adversity and need to either come back or hold on late in games. Florida is great when they blow teams out but in crunch time they wilt. Otto Porter on the other hand seems to thrive in those situations and will be the difference maker as Florida has nobody that can matchup with the Big East player of the year.
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Top Seeds
1. Kansas
2. Georgetown
3. Florida
4. Michigan
Sleepers
Is VCU still considered a sleeper? No? OK, then Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a tough team to figure out. They started the year 15-1 but finished 5-11. They've beaten the likes of Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Memphis. The biggest problem they have is inconsistent scoring. If Andre and Austin Hollins can shoot better than their 40% averages this team has a chance to win a few games. They play good defense and Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams like to pound the glass.
First Round Upset Alerts
4 Michigan vs 13 South Dakota State - This seems to be eerily similar to last years NCAA tournament for Michigan. Ranked a 4-seed and going up against a team with a star guard. Last time it was Ohio and D.J. Cooper (the only player ever with 2,000 points, 900 assists, 500 rebounds and 300 steals) who upset the Wolverines, this year Nate Wolters and South Dakota State will get their shot. And shoot is what Wolters will do as he pours in 22.7 a game. Michigan has struggled on defense all year, but the good thing for them is they are basically playing a home game at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Oh yeah, and they have Trey Burke.
6 UCLA vs 11 Minnesota - The clear pick for an upset, not only by my standards but Las Vegas as well. The sportsbooks opened this game with Minnesota as a 2.5 point favorite. The 11 favored over the 6? When you see things like that, it usually means the professional handicappers know something. The biggest reason is UCLA's second leading scorer, Jordan Adams, suffered a broken foot in the Pac-12 tournament. Look for the Gophers to take this game.
Possible Matchups
Kansas vs North Carolina - A second round matchup that looks a like a championship game. Roy Williams going up against his old team Kansas for the third time. So far the Jayhawks and Bill Self has gotten the best of Roy's Heels in the first two showdowns. Even though they are an 8-seed UNC still has some quality players in James Michael McAdoo and Reggie Bullock. But they will have a hard time containing Ben McLemore on the perimeter (16.4 ppg) and Jeff Withey inside (8.4 rpg, 3.8 bpg).
Georgetown vs Florida - This game was scheduled for the season opener on a ship but was called at halftime. Florida is a team that scores and plays defense, but played in the SEC, the worst of the power 6 conferences. All 26 of their wins were by double-digits, which is a good and bad thing. Good for obvious reasons, bad because that means when this team plays close games they can't seem to finish (see the Arizona game). Georgetown fell short to Indiana in OT in November and lost only one more game against a ranked team the rest of the year, in the Big East semis to Syracuse in OT. The winner of this game will most likely represent the South in Atlanta and it should be a doosy.
My Pick
This is tough but...Georgetown. Kansas will have a difficult time finding points against the Hoyas and Withey will get lost trying to defend their Princeton style offense. As for Florida, it's for the sole reason of the Gators not being able to win close games. At some point in the tournament every team is faced with adversity and need to either come back or hold on late in games. Florida is great when they blow teams out but in crunch time they wilt. Otto Porter on the other hand seems to thrive in those situations and will be the difference maker as Florida has nobody that can matchup with the Big East player of the year.
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Thursday, March 14, 2013
6 Teams That Have Something To Prove In Conference Tournaments
For teams on the bubble, conference tournaments are their last chance to state their case on why they should be invited to the NCAA tournament. However, for Final Four contenders it's their time to show they aren't getting the respect they deserve. A lot can be said about a team that wins their conference tourney and the momentum that it provides into the national tournament. The 2011 Connecticut team is a prime example. They lost four of their last six to end the season then proceeded to win four games in four days for the Big East title. That led to a run for the national championship, thanks in large part to Kemba Walker. These teams need to show us what they got during Championship Week.
ACC
Miami FL
The Hurricanes won the ACC regular season title for the first time since joining the league in 2004. A month ago this team was ranked #2 in the nation and started 13-0 in the ACC with blowouts over Duke and North Carolina. However, they lost three (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech) of their last five games and some doubters are starting to creep up on The U. The biggest reason is all the love that Duke is getting since Ryan Kelly came back. All of a sudden people are forgetting the fact that Miami routed the Blue Devils 90-63 at home. Or that if Ryan Kelly didn't have the game of his life (36 pts, 7-9 3FG) Duke might not have got their 79-76 win at Cameron Indoor. Miami has quality players in Shane Larkin, Kenny Kadji, and Durand Scott but has some head scratching losses. However, when big games arrive Miami has came to play. Along with huge wins over Duke, UNC, and NC State, they've also taken down Michigan State 67-59. If they are able to win the ACC tournament and beat Duke again in the championship game, this team will be riding high into the big dance.
Big 12
Kansas State
Kansas State has always been the red-headed step child in the Big 12, mostly because of the dominance their rival Kansas has had over the league. Even though they won its first ever conference title this year (albeit shared with Kansas), again this team is forgotten. All the talk for the Big 12 making noise in the post season is for KU and Oklahoma State, nothing at all for the Wildcats. It shows in the picks made by ESPN's college basketball writers for the conference tournament champion. Baylor was even shown some love! K-State is the Big 12's second highest ranked team in the top 25 but there's no faith in them. It is understandable in the fact that they were only 2-5 against ranked teams. One player to watch for is Rodney McGruder. This is a guy that can carry a team in tournament play and will have to if the Wildcats want to succeed. If there's a team on this list similar to the 2011 UConn team, this is the one. A run in the Big 12 tournament with wins over Baylor/Oklahoma State and Kansas, anything is possible.
Big East
Marquette
Louisville and Georgetown shared a Big East title with another team can you guess who? Syracuse? No. Pittsburgh? No. Connecticut? No. It was Marquette, yes, Marquette. Their first title since a guy named Dwyane Wade won one in 2003 when they were still in Conference USA. This team probably doesn't have one player that will make the NBA but it epitomizes the word TEAM. How else can you beat the likes of Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh with inferior talent. Another component is their coach, Buzz Williams. I love coaches that are intense and this guy is crazy, but he knows how to get a team to play together. They've won low scoring games (49-48), high scoring games (89-78) and three games in overtime. With a share in the Big East and a 23-7 record, some how this team is still under the radar. The Big East tournament is always grueling for any team. If the Golden Eagles are able to make the championship game or better yet, win the title, the country will have no choice but to give them the respect they deserve.
Big Ten
Michigan
Oh Michigan. How you frustrate me. For the first time since the Fab Five in 1993, the Wolverines reached #1 in the country. But they inexcusably lost at Penn State (winless in the Big Ten), Wisconsin's Ben Brust will forever be remembered with Evan Turner for hitting a half court shot, and the Indiana game reminds us of the importance of free throws. The IU game not only lost Michigan a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but also dropped them to a fifth seed in the Big Ten tournament. That's not a good thing because that means no bye and having to go through three of the top four teams instead of two. The one thing Michigan has though is Trey Burke. The B1G player of the year and currently still the front runner for national POY. With a guy like him on your team you are never out of it. The Wolverines are one of the best offensive teams in the country with four guys that can go off for 20+ on any given night. Their problem is defense. With no real lockdown defender on the perimeter or in the post, their best bet it to outscore the other team. They have the talent to beat any team in the country, especially if they are hitting their 3's. A Big Ten tournament title could lead to another trip to the Final Four, also a place the Wolverines haven't been since the Fab Five. Oh wait, that never happened, right?
Pac-12
Arizona
The Wildcats were ranked as high as #4 in the country with wins over Florida, Miami, and San Diego State to start the year. Now, they enter the Pac-12 tournament as the #4 seed behind UCLA, Cal, and Oregon. Even with that, they are still recognized as the favorite according to Las Vegas books. But, their national attention has slowly faded throughout the season. This team has solid players in Xavier transfer Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, and Nick Johnson so they aren't short on talent. Last year the Pac-12 only had one team enter the NCAA tournament (Colorado because of an automatic bid) so the nation is still not too keen on these west coast teams. However, Arizona has shown us they can compete with high quality competition and win. So, this is not a team that should be taken lightly. The Wildcats lost to all of the top three teams during conference play For Arizona to be looked at as a Final Four contender they need to run through the Pac-12 tournament win a vengeance.
Mountain West
New Mexico
Originally, I was going to talk about the SEC but since the Mountain West will have more teams in the NCAA tournament and is a better league top to bottom, they get the mention. The MWC will likely get four, possibly five, teams in the big dance. The cream of the crop are the Lobos and Steve Alford's squad is currently ranked #2 in RPI. They won't beat you with any sort of flash, but will wear you down on defense and make you play at their pace. The biggest sore spot on their record was a 55-34 loss at San Diego State. To only score 34 points in a game is embarrassing, which is their problem. They only shoot 42% from the field, ranking 222nd nationally. However, Kendall Williams is a player that if he gets hot he's very difficult to stop. In a game at Colorado State, Williams scored 46 points on 10-13 from three in a 91-82 victory. As you can see New Mexico has the capability of putting up big numbers but they can also lay an egg. Taking home a regular season and tournament championship in very good Mountain West conference will tell us that the Lobos are no joke.
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ACC
Miami FL
The Hurricanes won the ACC regular season title for the first time since joining the league in 2004. A month ago this team was ranked #2 in the nation and started 13-0 in the ACC with blowouts over Duke and North Carolina. However, they lost three (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech) of their last five games and some doubters are starting to creep up on The U. The biggest reason is all the love that Duke is getting since Ryan Kelly came back. All of a sudden people are forgetting the fact that Miami routed the Blue Devils 90-63 at home. Or that if Ryan Kelly didn't have the game of his life (36 pts, 7-9 3FG) Duke might not have got their 79-76 win at Cameron Indoor. Miami has quality players in Shane Larkin, Kenny Kadji, and Durand Scott but has some head scratching losses. However, when big games arrive Miami has came to play. Along with huge wins over Duke, UNC, and NC State, they've also taken down Michigan State 67-59. If they are able to win the ACC tournament and beat Duke again in the championship game, this team will be riding high into the big dance.
Big 12
Kansas State
Kansas State has always been the red-headed step child in the Big 12, mostly because of the dominance their rival Kansas has had over the league. Even though they won its first ever conference title this year (albeit shared with Kansas), again this team is forgotten. All the talk for the Big 12 making noise in the post season is for KU and Oklahoma State, nothing at all for the Wildcats. It shows in the picks made by ESPN's college basketball writers for the conference tournament champion. Baylor was even shown some love! K-State is the Big 12's second highest ranked team in the top 25 but there's no faith in them. It is understandable in the fact that they were only 2-5 against ranked teams. One player to watch for is Rodney McGruder. This is a guy that can carry a team in tournament play and will have to if the Wildcats want to succeed. If there's a team on this list similar to the 2011 UConn team, this is the one. A run in the Big 12 tournament with wins over Baylor/Oklahoma State and Kansas, anything is possible.
Big East
Marquette
Louisville and Georgetown shared a Big East title with another team can you guess who? Syracuse? No. Pittsburgh? No. Connecticut? No. It was Marquette, yes, Marquette. Their first title since a guy named Dwyane Wade won one in 2003 when they were still in Conference USA. This team probably doesn't have one player that will make the NBA but it epitomizes the word TEAM. How else can you beat the likes of Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh with inferior talent. Another component is their coach, Buzz Williams. I love coaches that are intense and this guy is crazy, but he knows how to get a team to play together. They've won low scoring games (49-48), high scoring games (89-78) and three games in overtime. With a share in the Big East and a 23-7 record, some how this team is still under the radar. The Big East tournament is always grueling for any team. If the Golden Eagles are able to make the championship game or better yet, win the title, the country will have no choice but to give them the respect they deserve.
Big Ten
Michigan
Oh Michigan. How you frustrate me. For the first time since the Fab Five in 1993, the Wolverines reached #1 in the country. But they inexcusably lost at Penn State (winless in the Big Ten), Wisconsin's Ben Brust will forever be remembered with Evan Turner for hitting a half court shot, and the Indiana game reminds us of the importance of free throws. The IU game not only lost Michigan a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but also dropped them to a fifth seed in the Big Ten tournament. That's not a good thing because that means no bye and having to go through three of the top four teams instead of two. The one thing Michigan has though is Trey Burke. The B1G player of the year and currently still the front runner for national POY. With a guy like him on your team you are never out of it. The Wolverines are one of the best offensive teams in the country with four guys that can go off for 20+ on any given night. Their problem is defense. With no real lockdown defender on the perimeter or in the post, their best bet it to outscore the other team. They have the talent to beat any team in the country, especially if they are hitting their 3's. A Big Ten tournament title could lead to another trip to the Final Four, also a place the Wolverines haven't been since the Fab Five. Oh wait, that never happened, right?
Pac-12
Arizona
The Wildcats were ranked as high as #4 in the country with wins over Florida, Miami, and San Diego State to start the year. Now, they enter the Pac-12 tournament as the #4 seed behind UCLA, Cal, and Oregon. Even with that, they are still recognized as the favorite according to Las Vegas books. But, their national attention has slowly faded throughout the season. This team has solid players in Xavier transfer Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, and Nick Johnson so they aren't short on talent. Last year the Pac-12 only had one team enter the NCAA tournament (Colorado because of an automatic bid) so the nation is still not too keen on these west coast teams. However, Arizona has shown us they can compete with high quality competition and win. So, this is not a team that should be taken lightly. The Wildcats lost to all of the top three teams during conference play For Arizona to be looked at as a Final Four contender they need to run through the Pac-12 tournament win a vengeance.
Mountain West
New Mexico
Originally, I was going to talk about the SEC but since the Mountain West will have more teams in the NCAA tournament and is a better league top to bottom, they get the mention. The MWC will likely get four, possibly five, teams in the big dance. The cream of the crop are the Lobos and Steve Alford's squad is currently ranked #2 in RPI. They won't beat you with any sort of flash, but will wear you down on defense and make you play at their pace. The biggest sore spot on their record was a 55-34 loss at San Diego State. To only score 34 points in a game is embarrassing, which is their problem. They only shoot 42% from the field, ranking 222nd nationally. However, Kendall Williams is a player that if he gets hot he's very difficult to stop. In a game at Colorado State, Williams scored 46 points on 10-13 from three in a 91-82 victory. As you can see New Mexico has the capability of putting up big numbers but they can also lay an egg. Taking home a regular season and tournament championship in very good Mountain West conference will tell us that the Lobos are no joke.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2013
College Basketball Power Rankings: March 12
The regular season is over and we are only a week away from the NCAA tournament. Some teams showed us what they were made of to close out their season (Duke and Indiana) while others seemed to be looking ahead (Kansas and Florida). Duke and Gonzaga are tops with Indiana and Louisville hot on their heels. There's a lot more to be told as the major conference tournaments start this week. Let's get it.
Biggest Drop - Miami FL down 5
New Editions - #10 Ohio State
Old News - Saint Louis
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- Duke (27-4, LW 3) - Duke's rout of North Carolina on the road 69-53 and the return of Ryan Kelly puts the Blue Devils back on top. Kelly not only provides a scoring lift but he makes the rest of the team better just by being on the court. Case in point, Mason Plumlee had his best in the past month game at UNC (23 pts, 13 rebs) because of the spacing of Kelly.
- Gonzaga (30-2, LW 1) - Gonzaga could have been listed as 1B because I still feel they are a legit team, Duke is just a little better. They closed out their undefeated conference season with a 65-51 win over St. Mary's last night. The WCC was no match for them but people just want to see if they are worthy of the #1 seed they will receive.
- Indiana (26-5, LW 2) - Earlier is the week Indiana lost at home to Ohio State 67-58 which opened the door for the Big Ten championship. It all came down to their road game at Michigan and Cody Zeller made a layup with 14 seconds left for their first out right Big Ten title since 1993.
- Louisville (26-5, LW 7) - The Cardinals avenged their 5 OT loss to Notre Dame 73-57 behind Gorgui Dieng's 20 and 11. This team is poised to make a strong run in the Big East and NCAA tournaments after winning 10 of their last 11.
- Georgetown (24-5, LW 4) - Georgetown is another Big East team that's playing really well. The lost to Villanova to begin the week 67-57 but came back with holding Jim Boeheim's team to its lowest points of his career 61-39. The Big East tournament will be one of the best of Championship week.
- Kansas (26-5, LW 5) - Kansas lost to Baylor 81-58, their worst loss in seven years. They could have won't the Big 12 title outright but instead had to share it with their rival Kansas State. The Jayhawks might have been looking ahead to the tournaments because they seemed uninterested.
- Michigan State (24-7, LW 11) - Sparty finished their season with a solid win over Wisconsin 58-43. Keith Appling has gotten back on track scoring 35 points in his last two games. This team is also dangerous come tournament time and this year is no different.
- Michigan (25-6, LW 8) - Ugh. The entire Big Ten was watching, Michigan State and Ohio State fans were even cheering for them, but Michigan choked away their game against Indiana and a four way tie for the Big Ten title. The Wolverines lost a five point lead with 50 seconds left because of missed FREE THROWS by Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Next up Penn State in the B1G tourney, great.
- Florida (24-6, LW 9) - The Gators had a SEC title all wrapped up before they played Kentucky so losing 61-57 only hurts their seeding for the time being. Florida didn't score in the last seven and a half minutes of the game, we'll see if they were looking ahead or if there's problems in the swamp after losing three of six.
- Ohio State (23-7, LW NR) - OSU ended the year with five straight wins and took out Indiana on the road last week thanks to Aaron Craft's 15 points on 7-10 shooting. The Buckeyes will Craft's play to stay consistent to go with Deshaun Thomas if they want to continue their recent success.
- Miami FL (24-6, LW 6) - The Canes won 14 straight but lost three of five to end the year including shockers to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Miami needs a strong showing in the ACC tourney believers back on their side.
- Oklahoma State (23-7, LW 13) - OK-State lost at Iowa State 87-76 earlier but finished the week with a good 76-70 victory over Kansas State. This team surprised the Big 12 finishing third in the conference and are a team to watch for a Big 12 tournament title.
- Marquette (23-7, LW 14) - Buzz Williams' team needed a last second shot by Vander Blue to secure an OT win over St. John's 69-67. More importantly the win secured a share of the Big East regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown, Marquette's first since joining the league.
- Kansas State (25-6, LW 10) - Despite a loss to end their season, the Wildcats still managed to share the Big 12 title with Kansas. This team was only 2-5 against ranked opponents, it will be interesting to see how they fare in the tournaments to come.
- New Mexico (25-4, LW 12) - New Mexico is known for its defense but couldn't get a stop when it mattered against Air Force. The Falcons hit two 3's in the final 16 seconds to pull off the upset 89-88. The Lobos still hold a 3-seed in Joe Lundari's bracketology but need a strong showing in a difficult Mountain West tournament to keep it.
Biggest Drop - Miami FL down 5
New Editions - #10 Ohio State
Old News - Saint Louis
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Tuesday, March 5, 2013
College Basketball Power Rankings: March 5
Ahh, March is finally upon us and we are only one week from the conference tournaments and two weeks away from the big dance. I would say let the upsets begin but that's been happening all year. Last week we saw one of the biggest upsets of the year when Michigan squandered a 15-point second half lead at Penn State. Indiana, Duke, Florida, and Miami also lost as 5 of my top 6 teams tasted defeat. The lone team to come out unscathed was Gonzaga, but will they top our list? Let's find out.
Biggest Drop - Michigan down 5
New Editions - #14 Marquette, #15 Saint Louis
Old News - Syracuse, Arizona
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- Gonzaga (29-2, LW 2) - Since the 2008 Memphis team that made it to the NCAA championship game, no mid-major has been ranked #1 until now. Gonzaga is a legit team this year. Last week they finished their conference schedule undefeated at 16-0, the first time ever in the WCC. If not for a sloppy out of bounds play to end the Butler game this team would only have one loss. Like that Memphis team and Saint Joe's in 2004, the Zags have their doubters but it's hard to deny any team that will have 30 wins before the big dance starts.
- Indiana (25-4, LW 1) - The Hoosiers lost to Minnesota 77-73 behind Trevor Mbakwe's 21 and 12. Oddly enough Indiana's four losses have all been to unranked teams but they are 6-0 against ranked teams. They will look to improve to 8-0 this week hosting Ohio State and traveling to Michigan.
- Duke (25-4, LW 4) - Apparently Ryan Kelly is more important to Duke that anyone knew. After missing 13 games due to a foot injury, Kelly returned against Miami and scored a career high 36 points on 10-14 shooting, including 7-9 from deep. With Kelly's return to the lineup, this Duke team is back into discussion of the top team in the country along with Indiana and Gonzaga. They head to Chapel Hill this week where anything can happen.
- Georgetown (23-4, LW 7) - Georgetown survived a double OT scare at Connecticut 79-78. Otto Porter Jr. continued to shine with 22 points and the game winning lay-up. Syracuse comes in Saturday and it marks the last time these rivals will meet in the Big East conference.
- Kansas (25-4, LW 8) - For the second time this year the Jayhawks needed late game heroics to get past Iowa State in overtime, this time by Elijah Johnson. He finished with 39 points and had eight in the last 32 seconds to force OT. A game at Baylor is all that stands in their way of getting at least a share to the Big 12 title for the fifth straight year.
- Miami FL (23-5, LW 6) - The U might have lost to Duke but were in it down til the end. They've lost two of their last three games but close the regular season with home games against Georgia Tech and Clemson.
- Louisville (24-5, LW 10) - Louisville has now won six straight following their five OT game at Notre Dame, including a 58-53 road win at Syracuse last week despite Peyton Siva going scoreless. To close their season they will host ND, we'll see if this game provides the same fireworks.
- Michigan (24-5, LW 3) - Michigan started the week with its worst loss of the season at Penn State 84-78, but finished with its best win of the year over Michigan State 58-57. Thanks in large part to Trey Burke who had finished with 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 steals. His rip of Keith Appling lead to the game winning dunk. They finish the season at Purdue, a game they can't overlook, they host Indiana.
- Florida (23-5, LW 5) - The Gators had a bad loss to Tennessee 64-58, but rebounded against Alabama to clinch at least a share of the SEC title. Florida's match-up at Kentucky to end the season will likely determine the champion.
- Kansas State (24-5, LW 13) - A sloppy turnover by Baylor lead to Rodney McGruder hitting a buzzer beating three for a 64-61 win. That win kept them in a tie with Kansas in the conference and K-State is looking for its first ever regular season title. A game at OK-State will be the last hurdle.
- Michigan State (22-7, LW 9) - MSU has now dropped three straight, all to ranked opponents. They played one of their worst games at Michigan shooting only 35% and committing 18 turnovers. Wisconsin comes into EL Thursday, which won't be easy.
- New Mexico (25-4, LW 14) - With their 70-60 win over San Diego St and 53-42 over Wyoming, the Lobos have clinched the outright regular season championship in a tough Mountain West Conference. They close their season with road games at Nevada and Air Force.
- Oklahoma State (22-6, LW 15) - The Cowboys have two difficult games this week at Iowa State and home against K-State. They are still in the hunt for a share of the Big 12 title and Markel Brown had a nasty dunk against Texas.
- Marquette (21-7, LW NR) - Marquette had two huge home wins last week, 74-71 over Syracuse and 72-64 over Notre Dame. The Golden Flashes still have a shot at Big East title as they are the surprise team in the conference.
- Saint Louis (23-5, LW NR) - The Billikens are one of the hottest teams right now with 11 straight wins (two over Butler and one over VCU) and are first place in a good Atlantic 10 Conference. They do it with defense holding teams to only 57.9 ppg. They end with two tough games, at Xavier and against LaSalle.
Biggest Drop - Michigan down 5
New Editions - #14 Marquette, #15 Saint Louis
Old News - Syracuse, Arizona
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Friday, March 1, 2013
Michigan Basketball Needs To Shake Its Funk
It wasn't too long ago that I had a conversation with a friend about how this years Michigan team has a legit shot at winning a national title. That was when they started the season 16-0 then moved their record to 20-1 during conference play. Since then they are 3-4 and looking like the Final Four hopes were a mirage
Wednesday's loss at Penn State is in the running for upset of the season in college basketball along with TCU over Kansas. Until then they didn't have a loss to a team outside of the top 25 in RPI ranking and all of them were on the road at Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. It's tough to call the Wisconsin game a loss because the Badgers needed a half court shot by Ben Brust to send it to overtime. But the loss at Michigan State was so bad that it counts for one and a half so it all evens out. Every team is going to lose throughout the year and those were all acceptable, but the loss at Penn State is inexcusable.
The fact that they had a 15 point lead with a little over 10 minutes left in the game then proceeded to be outscored 33-12 by a team that was winless in the Big Ten is a cause for concern. Usually when major upsets like this happen it's because the better team just has an off night like in the case of Kansas who shot 29% from the field. Michigan doesn't have that excuse because they shot 52% and hit their scoring average. What they didn't do is play defense and that's beginning to be a problem. Penn State averages 62 ppg and shoots 39% ranking 292nd and 329th respectively but managed to score 84 points on 49% shooting against the Wolverines. It's games like this you don't see the top teams losing. They will have tough road games against lesser opponents that are close but will never lose the game. If they want to get into the same class as consistently good teams like Duke and Michigan State this can't happen
We all know Michigan can score with anybody, averaging 76 ppg and shooting 49.5% from the floor, good for 6th in the country. But defensively they rank 262nd nationally in both steals (5.8) and blocks (2.6) per game. According Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense, Michigan is the only top ten team ranked outside of the top 24. In the last 10 years no National champion has been ranked lower than 19 according to Ken Pom's defensive rankings and Michigan currently sits at 57.
Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a great compliment but the lack of an inside presence on both sides of the ball is a glaring weakness. Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford are serviceable at best. This is Morgan's third year and his numbers have gone down in each one. He shows flashes every now and then as he's posted three double-doubles this year but he's too inconsistent and missing time due to injury has helped his cause. I think McGary is the best out of the bunch and reminds me of a bigger Zack Novak as far as determination. Coming in I wasn't sure about him as I saw him get torn up by Nerlens Noel in high school and watched his recruiting rank plummet. He has grown on me though, I love his hustle and passion for the game but his athleticism kills me. There's been too many times I've seen him not be able to finish around the rim with a dunk or get out rebounded by a smaller more athletic player. Horford is decent, he gets the occasional block but often looks lost on the court. Teams with good post players will always give them trouble and are hard to beat unless Michigan's guards are hitting their shots.
The starting freshmen, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III, are key to the success of this team in the tournament. Like I said, we know what to expect out of Burke and Hardaway, but they can't win big games by themselves and will need the scoring of the two young bucks. Both average 11 points but seemed to have hit a wall of late, Robinson more-so than Stauskas. In the murderers row of their schedule (at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State) Robinson scored only 18 points on 7-24 shooting. Stauskas started the year red hot from three point range ranking among the top five and hovering around 50%. Since conference play started his numbers have dropped and he's had more than two 3's in a game only three times, whereas he had eight games out of conference. It was a difficult pace to keep and defenses are tough in the Big Ten but his jumper doesn't seem as consistent as it once was. Maybe it's because they are playing more games in college than a year ago in high school. Either way UM needs to get these two back on track if they want to make a run in the tournament.
Their game against Michigan State is the biggest one so far and will tell us if they are ready to take down top notch opponents. Not only is this a rivalry game but they were utterly embarrassed in East Lansing losing by 23 and trailing by as many as 31. Every loss has came on the road and with this game being played at Crisler it's a must win for this team and needs to do it convincingly without the threat of losing it at the end. I don't want to sound like I'm calling this team overrated or I've lost faith in my team because they are very solid and better than most in the country. But if they want to be considered a serious contender for a National Championship they need to beat MSU and if not get a win against Indiana at least a game down to the last possession. The good thing for Big Blue is that there are no road games in the NCAA tournament. The bad thing is they are susceptible to an early upset.
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Wednesday's loss at Penn State is in the running for upset of the season in college basketball along with TCU over Kansas. Until then they didn't have a loss to a team outside of the top 25 in RPI ranking and all of them were on the road at Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. It's tough to call the Wisconsin game a loss because the Badgers needed a half court shot by Ben Brust to send it to overtime. But the loss at Michigan State was so bad that it counts for one and a half so it all evens out. Every team is going to lose throughout the year and those were all acceptable, but the loss at Penn State is inexcusable.
The fact that they had a 15 point lead with a little over 10 minutes left in the game then proceeded to be outscored 33-12 by a team that was winless in the Big Ten is a cause for concern. Usually when major upsets like this happen it's because the better team just has an off night like in the case of Kansas who shot 29% from the field. Michigan doesn't have that excuse because they shot 52% and hit their scoring average. What they didn't do is play defense and that's beginning to be a problem. Penn State averages 62 ppg and shoots 39% ranking 292nd and 329th respectively but managed to score 84 points on 49% shooting against the Wolverines. It's games like this you don't see the top teams losing. They will have tough road games against lesser opponents that are close but will never lose the game. If they want to get into the same class as consistently good teams like Duke and Michigan State this can't happen
We all know Michigan can score with anybody, averaging 76 ppg and shooting 49.5% from the floor, good for 6th in the country. But defensively they rank 262nd nationally in both steals (5.8) and blocks (2.6) per game. According Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense, Michigan is the only top ten team ranked outside of the top 24. In the last 10 years no National champion has been ranked lower than 19 according to Ken Pom's defensive rankings and Michigan currently sits at 57.
Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a great compliment but the lack of an inside presence on both sides of the ball is a glaring weakness. Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford are serviceable at best. This is Morgan's third year and his numbers have gone down in each one. He shows flashes every now and then as he's posted three double-doubles this year but he's too inconsistent and missing time due to injury has helped his cause. I think McGary is the best out of the bunch and reminds me of a bigger Zack Novak as far as determination. Coming in I wasn't sure about him as I saw him get torn up by Nerlens Noel in high school and watched his recruiting rank plummet. He has grown on me though, I love his hustle and passion for the game but his athleticism kills me. There's been too many times I've seen him not be able to finish around the rim with a dunk or get out rebounded by a smaller more athletic player. Horford is decent, he gets the occasional block but often looks lost on the court. Teams with good post players will always give them trouble and are hard to beat unless Michigan's guards are hitting their shots.
The starting freshmen, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III, are key to the success of this team in the tournament. Like I said, we know what to expect out of Burke and Hardaway, but they can't win big games by themselves and will need the scoring of the two young bucks. Both average 11 points but seemed to have hit a wall of late, Robinson more-so than Stauskas. In the murderers row of their schedule (at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State) Robinson scored only 18 points on 7-24 shooting. Stauskas started the year red hot from three point range ranking among the top five and hovering around 50%. Since conference play started his numbers have dropped and he's had more than two 3's in a game only three times, whereas he had eight games out of conference. It was a difficult pace to keep and defenses are tough in the Big Ten but his jumper doesn't seem as consistent as it once was. Maybe it's because they are playing more games in college than a year ago in high school. Either way UM needs to get these two back on track if they want to make a run in the tournament.
Their game against Michigan State is the biggest one so far and will tell us if they are ready to take down top notch opponents. Not only is this a rivalry game but they were utterly embarrassed in East Lansing losing by 23 and trailing by as many as 31. Every loss has came on the road and with this game being played at Crisler it's a must win for this team and needs to do it convincingly without the threat of losing it at the end. I don't want to sound like I'm calling this team overrated or I've lost faith in my team because they are very solid and better than most in the country. But if they want to be considered a serious contender for a National Championship they need to beat MSU and if not get a win against Indiana at least a game down to the last possession. The good thing for Big Blue is that there are no road games in the NCAA tournament. The bad thing is they are susceptible to an early upset.
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Monday, February 25, 2013
College Basketball Power Rankings: February 25
More games, more upsets. This week we saw three of the top four teams go down and Michigan State lost twice. They had the most anticipated game with #1 Indiana which the Hoosiers pulled it out late 72-68 thanks to Victor Oladipo who is starting to be recognized as a candidate for POY. Miami probably had the worst loss at Wake Forest 80-65. And we're off.
Biggest Drop - Michigan State down 6
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- Indiana (24-3, LW 1) - The Hoosiers win at Michigan State was huge and no player was bigger than Victor Oladipo. He had 19 points, 9 boards, 5 steals, and the last six points for IU when they were down one. This win solidified Indiana as the top team in the country.
- Gonzaga (27-2, LW 5) - Gonzaga won their two games last week by a combined 74 points over Santa Clara and San Diego. This week they will try to finish with a perfect record in conference play at BYU and hosting Portland.
- Michigan (23-4, LW 6) - UM handled an Illinois team that was on a five game win streak 71-58. Trey Burke had 28 points on 8-11 shooting and 8 assists. They travel to Penn State Wednesday before MSU comes to Ann Arbor on Sunday. The Wolverines will be looking to avenge an embarrassing 23-point loss by the hands of the Spartans.
- Duke (24-3, LW 7) - Duke rebounded nicely after their loss to Maryland with easy wins on ACC bottom feeders Virginia Tech and Boston College. Mason Plumlee got back on track recording a double-double in both games. The Blue Devils now have their eyes set on a rematch with Miami this Saturday.
- Florida (22-4, LW 4) - Florida seemed to be cruising to another win before Missouri was able to erase a 13-point deficit. The Gators are still in good position for the SEC title and remain the only SEC team ranked in the top 25.
- Miami FL (22-4, LW 2) - The U had flirted with losses to Clemson and Virginia before tripping up at Wake Forest. Miami was never in the game as they trailed by 13 at the half and shot only 39% from the field. They travel to Duke this week so we'll see if this team can find its groove again.
- Georgetown (21-4, LW 11) - Georgetown was a hard team to get a read on when conference play started, now they find themselves on top of the Big East after a 57-46 win at Syracuse. Otto Porter Jr. was the only Hoya in double figures but he scored 33 with 5 three's, 8 rebounds and 5 steals. They are on a nine game win streak and head to UConn for a tough road test Wednesday.
- Kansas (23-4, LW 8) - Kansas narrowly escaped with a double-overtime win at Oklahoma State 68-67. The Jayhawks only made one field goal in either OT and that was a Naadir Tharpe jumper to go up one with 20 seconds left in the game. A tough road game at Iowa State in next, in a rematch of a game that Kansas needed a strong push late to come out with the win.
- Michigan State (22-6, LW 3) - I give the Spartans love last week and they let me down losing to Indiana at home and Ohio State on the road. Don't get me wrong, both were tough games to win but I didn't expect two losses. They let the IU game slip away late and their leading scorer Keith Appling has lost all his mojo shooting 2-14 with 9 points combined in the losses. Michigan is licking their chops at a wounded MSU squad.
- Louisville (22-5, LW 10) - Louisville stood pat after a 79-61 win over Seton Hall as Gorgui Dieng scored 28 on 10-11 from the floor. The Cardinals are still the hunt for a Big East title and a matchup at Syracuse will determine the fate of one of those teams.
- Syracuse (22-5, LW 9) - The Orange could not find any offense against G-Town as they only shot 34% and were held to a season low 46 points. It doesn't get any easier for them either as they travel to Marquette tonight before hosting Louisville Saturday.
- Arizona (23-4, LW 12) - Arizona looked good disposing of both Washington Pac-12 teams by 35 combined points. They are getting contributions from multiple players and back on top of the Pac-12 standings after Oregon lost to Cal.
- Kansas State (22-5, LW 13) - K-State still has hopes of a Big 12 championship but a road game this week at Baylor could kill that dream. They are looking for their first conference title since 1976-77.
- New Mexico (23-4, LW 15) - New Mexico was able to get a big win at Colorado State 91-82. Kendall Williams scored 46 on a ridiculous 10-13 from beyond the arc. This weeks brings Steve Fisher and San Diego State into town. In the first meeting the Lobos scored 12 less that Williams' output against CSU, 34.
- Oklahoma State (20-6, LW 14) - The Cowboys took Kansas to 2 OT's despite their stand-out Freshman Marcus Smart going 2-14 from the field. Ok-State has a mild schedule this week with TCU and Texas on the docket.
Biggest Drop - Michigan State down 6
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Tuesday, February 19, 2013
College Basketball Power Rankings: February 19
For the first time in six weeks the #1 team in the country didn't lose. Indiana remains at the top spot after two easy wins at home while Kansas stopped its three game losing streak. Michigan State and Gonzaga cracked the top five for the first time but Duke and Michigan were top five teams that both suffered losses. Let's do it.
Biggest Drop - Butler down 6
New Editions - #14 Oklahoma State, #15 New Mexico
Old News - Butler, Pittsburgh
- Indiana (23-3, LW 1) - Indiana has been rolling since their buzzer-beater loss at Illinois but will face a tough test Tuesday on the road at Michigan State. Victor Oladipo will be playing through an ankle injury and if he's not 100% it will be that much harder for the Hoosiers to get the win.
- Miami FL (21-3, LW 2) - The Hurricanes struggled badly at Clemson but was able to escape with a win 45-43. They only shot 34% but the mark of a good team is winning games when it's not your night and Miami is showing they are legit.
- Michigan State (22-4, LW 8) - I expected MSU to beat Michigan at home but not the way they did. The Spartans largest lead was 31 as they dominated from the from the jump. Indiana now comes to town which starts a four game stretch of IU, OSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin who are all ranked.
- Florida (21-3, LW 5) - Since their first SEC loss Florida has won three straight by an average of 24 points. They visit Missouri on Tuesday for their hardest game left on the schedule.
- Gonzaga (25-2, LW 6) - Gonzaga is garnishing a few #1 votes in both of the major polls and their 17-point win at rival Saint Mary's proved they might be deserving. Kelly Olynyk is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds for the Bulldogs.
- Michigan (22-4, LW 3) - Michigan went 1-3 in their toughest stretch of the season and it ended in a blowout at MSU. Then they struggled against Big Ten bottom feeder Penn State at home. The freshmen look to have hit a wall and their lack of big men is a glaring weakness against top competition. We'll see what they do after a week off when Illinois visits Ann Arbor.
- Duke (22-3, LW 4) - Duke needed a second half comeback to beat North Carolina 73-68 but couldn't muster one at Maryland as they fell 83-81. Mason Plumlee played his worst game of the season with only 4 points and 3 boards as the bigger Alex Len dominated the POY candidate.
- Kansas (21-4, LW 11) - KU looks to be back on track after handling K-State and Texas each by more than 20 points. We'll see if they are fully back when they head to Oklahoma State this week.
- Syracuse (21-4, LW 7) - The road hasn't been kind to the Orange lately as they've lost three of their last four away from home. They have a difficult close to their season as four of their final five games are against ranked teams.
- Louisville (21-5, LW 12) - Louisville needed a break after a 5 OT game with Notre Dame and they get with four straight against the bottom of the Big East. After easily disposing of St. John's and South Florida last week, they now face Seton Hall and DePaul.
- Georgetown (19-4, LW 15) - The Hoyas had two big wins last week over Marquette 63-55 and at Cincinnati 62-55. They did blow a 17-point lead at Cincy but managed to hang on. They head to Syracuse this week for big matchup this Saturday.
- Arizona (21-4, LW 9) - The Wildcats seem to be struggling as of late. Colorado took revenge with a 71-58 win and then they had a tough time beating Utah 68-64. However, they still have a chance to win the Pac-12.
- Kansas State (20-5, LW 13) - K-State was ran out of the gym in Kansas but have bounced back nicely against Baylor and West Virginia getting wins by double digits. They are fighting for a Big 12 title and travel to Texas this week.
- Oklahoma State (19-5, LW NR) - The Cowboys have won seven straight and have one of the best freshmen in country in Marcus Smart. They host Kansas Wednesday night as they look to sweep the Jayhawks on the year.
- New Mexico (22-4, LW NR) - The Lobo's have a hard time scoring but opponents also have a hard time scoring on them. They have a big road test this week at Colorado State.
Biggest Drop - Butler down 6
New Editions - #14 Oklahoma State, #15 New Mexico
Old News - Butler, Pittsburgh
Monday, February 11, 2013
College Basketball Power Rankings: February 11
It's only February but it feels like March with how many upsets we saw last week. 4 of the top 5 and 9 of the top 15 teams suffered a loss and three teams (Kansas, Ohio State, Creighton) went down twice. Things couldn't get more difficult to determine who is the best team in the country because nobody has shown any dominance. But that's why we love college basketball right? Let's get into it.
Biggest Drop - Kansas down 7
New Editions - #13 Kansas State, #14 Pittsburgh, #15 Georgetown
Old News - Ohio State, Creighton, New Mexico
- Indiana (21-3, LW 1) - Even though IU lost on a last second lay-up to Illinois, they came back and handled Ohio State on the road with ease. Because of that OSU win they remain at #1 and are rewarded with a "week off" of sorts with Nebraska and Purdue coming to Bloomington.
- Miami FL (19-3, LW 10) - Undoubtedly the hottest team in the country, I'm starting to drink the kool-aid after the Hurricanes blew out UNC at home 87-61 to run their winning streak to 11. Durand Scott, Kenny Kadji, and Shane Larkin can all create their of shot and Reggie Johnson is a load in the post averaging 10 points and 9 boards.
- Michigan (21-3, LW 3) - This was a stressful week for Big Blue as both of their games went to OT. First, they were able to pull off the win against OSU as Tim Hardaway Jr. hit 6 of 9 three's for 23 points. Then they went to Wisconsin, where they haven't won in eleven meetings, and Ben Brust hit a half-court buzzer-beater to send it to overtime and also hit the game-winning three in OT. Michigan finishes its grueling four game stretch with a visit to Michigan State on Tuesday.
- Duke (21-2, LW 6) - Duke was one of the few top teams to escape last week without a loss, barely. They avenged their loss to NC State with a 98-85 win, but needed Mason Plumlee to hit 3 of 4 free throws late to beat Boston College 62-61. Now they prepare for bitter rival North Carolina.
- Florida (19-3, LW 2) - The Gators came out flat at Arkansas getting behind 43-26 at halftime and couldn't recover. However, they did just that against Mississippi State winning 83-58. This week they play host to Kentucky.
- Gonzaga (23-2, LW 5) - Gonzaga is coasting through their conference but travel to Saint Mary's on Thursday, which poses it's most difficult test until the conference tournament.
- Syracuse (20-3, LW 9) - Cuse was one of the few teams that didn't lose last week and also were able to welcome back James Southerland. He returned against St John's to score 13 points in a 77-58 win.
- Michigan State (20-4, LW 11) - As usual, Michigan State has been sitting back winning games while nobody pays attention to them. Now they are tied for the Big Ten lead with Indiana. They host Michigan on Tuesday which could turn out to a be another classic in the Big Ten this year.
- Arizona (20-3, LW 7) -The Wildcats dropped a surprising home game to California 77-69 this weekend as they were outscored in the second half 44-31 behind Allen Crabbe's 31 points. They will look to rebound on the road against a tough Colorado team that should have beat them earlier if not for a blown call.
- Butler (20-4, LW 14) - The Bulldogs needed to hold on late at George Washington after blowing a 17-point lead to win 59-56. We are now waiting for a showdown at VCU on March 2nd.
- Kansas (19-4, LW 4) - What has happened to Kansas?! After riding an 18 game winning streak the Jayhawks have dropped 3 straight to Oklahoma St, TCU, and Oklahoma. Monday they host Kansas State to kick off rivalry week on ESPN. This game is the perfect spot for KU to show the country it's still dangerous by taking out the Big 12 leader.
- Louisville (19-5, LW 8) - Hands down the game of the week went to the 5-OT thriller between Louisville and Notre Dame. ND came out of this winner 104-101 after Jerian Grant scored 12 points in the last 44 seconds to force the first OT. The Cardinals get an easy stretch now with their next four games against unranked opponents.
- Kansas State (19-4, LW NR) - Three of K-State's four losses are from ranked teams. They've been a team that's under-the-radar all season but have consistently won. The Wildcats lost their home meeting to Kansas earlier but will get a huge boost if they can give the Jayhawks a fourth straight loss.
- Pittsburgh (20-5, LW NR) - Pitt is rolling right now after starting the Big East season 1-4 they recently have wins over Syracuse and Cincinnati. Their only game this week is a visit to Marquette.
- Georgetown (17-4, LW NR) - The Hoyas seem to be hitting their stride as well as they've won 7 of 8 since a 28-point home loss to the aforementioned Pitt Panthers. Otto Porter Jr is playing great averaging 15 points and 8 rebounds.
Biggest Drop - Kansas down 7
New Editions - #13 Kansas State, #14 Pittsburgh, #15 Georgetown
Old News - Ohio State, Creighton, New Mexico
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