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Showing posts with label NCAA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAA. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Louisville, Luke Hancock, Stave Off Michigan

The national championship game had the potential to be a classic matchup between the best offensive and defensive teams in the country, and it didn't disappoint.  The Louisville Cardinals were able to survive a first half push by Michigan, and an unlikely hero, to win the schools third title and coach Rick Pitino's second in an 82-76 victory.  Also, Pitino became the first coach ever to win a national championship at two different schools, his other was with Kentucky in 1996.

The big question heading into the game was how will Michigan handle the relentless pressure from Louisville.  Right from the jump Trey Burke was out to show why he was the consensus Player of the Year.  Burke shook off any remaining rust from his 1-8 night against Syracuse to hit his first three shots and score Michigan's first seven points, matching his total in the Final Four game.  The opening five minutes were fast and furious as both teams were trying to run and when the TV timeout came it was almost as everybody watching needed to catch their breath.

Unfortunately for Burke, he was called for hist second foul early in the first half on a questionable call, one of many for both teams.  But luckily for Michigan their freshman backup point guard, Spike Albrecht, who averaged 1.8 points a game went off for a career high 17 points on four 3-pointers.  He started his 3 barrage while Burke was still in the game and continued once he had left.  At one point all five freshmen were on the court together and brought Michigan fans to memories of the Fab Five, the last time the Wolverines were in the title game.  With Burke on the bench, Michigan was able to build a 12 point lead, 35-23, with about three minutes left in the half.

For 17 minutes of the first half Louisville struggled to get anything going on offense as Michigan wasn't turning the ball over and the best scorer in the tournament, Russ Smith, couldn't make a shot.  Just like in the Wichita State game, it was Luke Hancock that brought the Cardinals back in the blink of an eye.  He matched Albrecht with hitting four straight 3s of his own in a two minute stretch before the half scoring 14 straight for Louisville.  The Cardinals finally took the lead with a Montrezl Harrell lob from Peyton Siva.  Next, Glenn Robinson III hit two free throws and Michigan had a 38-37 edge after the most entertaining half in the entire tournament.  Amazing plays by bench players and huge swings by both teams only left us wanting more.

The second half starts and for Louisville, Russ Smith (who finished with 9 points on 3-16 shooting) is on the bench.  This is a guy that had at least 21 in every game of the tournament, but Pitino stayed with the hot hand of Hancock.  Burke was back in the lineup though and picked up right where he left off hitting a deep 3 early.  But it was Siva and Chane Behanan that started to control the paint and in turn the game.

Michigan had no answer for Siva's penetration and playmaking ability in the second half.  The senior guard was getting to the rim at will scoring 14 or his 18 points in the latter half of the game also adding six boards, five assists, and four steals.  As for Behanan, he became a man amongst boys in the post scoring 11 of his 15 points and grabbing 11 of his 12 boards (including all seven of his offensive rebounds) in the second half.  Gorgui Dieng also decided to show up after a MIA performance in the Final Four game where he missed his only field goal attempt.  Dieng was not only a defensive and rebounding presence (three blocks and eight rebounds, five offensive) but a facilitator as well leading the Cardinals with six assists.

Even after all of this, Michigan was still hanging around within striking distance.  But a turning point in the game was with just over five minutes to go and Louisville up 67-64.  Albrecht misses a layup which turns into a break for Siva and Burke measures him up for one of the biggest blocks/plays of the tournament but is called for a foul.  It could have been a huge momentum shift in Michigan's favor but instead it led to Louisville going on a run for their biggest lead of the game, 76-66.  If no foul is called there and Michigan goes on to win a title, that play would be just as big as the 3-pointer he hit to tie the game against Kansas.

A lot of talk during the game was about how bad the refs were and for good reason because they missed a lot of calls for both teams.  Less than two minutes into the game they missed an obvious goal tend that was called a block by Dieng on Tim Hardaway Jr.  Two fouls on Burke were very questionable, including his second that sat him the rest of the first half on a Hancock ball fake and the aforementioned block on Siva.  Late in the game Mitch McGary clearly kicked the ball and no whistle blew.  Behanan was getting absolutely mugged in the paint while still getting offensive put-backs.  And every time Burke or Siva drove the lane they ended up on their back but rarely was a call made.  Both teams have serious complaints and it's a shame that in a game of such high importance the refs had as much influence as they did.

In the end the better team won as Michigan just wasn't able to get rebounds or stop penetration in the second half.  Burke tried to do everything he could to keep his team in it but wasn't getting enough help as Louisville proved to have too many weapons on offense.  The Final Four Most Outstanding Player went to Luke Hancock who put in 22 points with 5-5 from downtown.  Hancock became the first non-starter to win the award.  It was announced at halftime that Burke won the Naismith Award, sweeping all of the Player of the Year awards.  He finished with 24 points, but who knows how this game would have played out if he didn't get into early foul trouble.  Tournament standout, Mitch McGary, had a very pedestrian showing after putting up 16 ppg and 11 rpg coming into the title game.  He also was suffering from foul trouble and only managed six points and six rebounds.  Louisville was looked at as the best team in the country coming into the tournament and showed it, running through opponents early and coming back in the later round.  After the horrific injury to Kevin Ware you might have thought this was going to be a team of destiny.  The Cardinals and coach Pitino, along with Ware, cut down the nets to cap off an amazing game, tournament and year of college basketball.

Monday, April 8, 2013

What To Watch: Michigan Wolverines vs Louisville Cardinals

It all comes down to this.  Two teams, one title.  For Louisville's Rick Pitino it would be his second, but Michigan's John Beilein is still looking for his first.  These teams have had opposing styles all year as Louisville has the #1 defense and Michigan has the #1 offense in Ken Pomeroy's rankings.  But both teams have picked it up on the other side of the ball in the tournament.  The Cardinals have upped their points per game to 79 while the Wolverines have kept four of their five opponents under 60.  To get to the title game both needed their benches to provide huge lifts when the starters were faltering.  For Louisville it was Luke Hancock, who seemed to do everything right when Russ Smith and Peyton Siva couldn't find driving lanes.  Nik Stauskas had his worst shooting performance of the year but Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht hit timely 3-pointers to help the Wolverines.  Both squads will again need a total team if they want to go home with a championship.

Player To Watch

Louisville - Peyton Siva doesn't put up the best numbers but he is just as important to this team as Russ Smith.  Siva is the engine that makes this machine go.  Not only does he run the offense but spearheads their pressure defense.  Siva will not be able to match Burke in the scoring column but he can definitely make it harder for the POY to get his own buckets.  Siva needs to bring the pressure early and often on Burke to get the ball out of his hands.  Michigan struggles when Burke is not able to at least set up the offense and Siva will be the catalyst to stop that.  Also, Siva went 1-9 against Wichita State with only three assists and if Louisville wants a title they need their point guard to be closer to his 10 points, six assists average. 

Michigan - Trey Burke is raking in all the post season awards and will have to be on top of his game to take the one he covets most, the National Championship.  Against Syracuse's long 2-3 zone, Burke had his worst game of the year going 1-8 with seven points and four assists.  To get a title Michigan can't have another performance like that or the Wolverines will be in trouble.  But more than scoring, Burke needs to take care of the ball because turnovers lead to points when going up against Louisville.  He's done a great job all year as he's posted the best assist/turnover ratio in the country but he will now be going up against the best defense in the nation.  When Michigan faced a similar pressure team in VCU in the round of 32 the Wolverines had 12 turnovers, seven from Burke alone.

Key Matchup

Louisville pressure vs Michigan ball handling.  These are the two strengths of each team.  Louisville is second in the nation in steals and Michigan first in turnovers per game.  The Cardinals defense has forced an average of 15.4 TOs and created 11.2 steals in five games in the tournament.  Not only do they take the ball from you but most likely they will score off those turnovers.  Michigan on the other hand only averages 9.4 giveaways a game and Burke is as good they get when it comes to protecting the ball.  Can Siva and Smith force Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. into bad decisions or will the latter minimize mistakes and keep the game in their control?

Prediction

In a battle of strength vs strength it usually come down to pace of play because most defensive teams like to slow it down (Syracuse) whereas offensive teams like to get it and go.  But both teams like to run.  So pay attention to which teams "weakness" stands out.  Can Louisville score on the much improved Michigan defense or will the Wolverines shut down the Cardinals?  Let's not forget in the Big Ten tournament Michigan gave up 51 points in the second half to a Wisconsin team that failed to score more than 46 in its last two losses of the year.  In the tournament, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of nine points in the second half.  The Cardinals offense comes and goes with Russ Smith as he's scored over 20 in every game of the tourney but if he doesn't get help from the likes of Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Hancock, this team will have a hard time keeping up with Michigan.  The one thing Michigan has that they didn't during the regular season is the amazing play of Mitch McGary.  Averaging 16 ppg and 11.6 rpg in the tournament, he has become the inside presence Michigan has been looking for all year to compliment its guard play.  Gorgui Dieng will have his hands full down low with the bigger and stronger McGary.  Also, I feel like Michigan won't wilt under the pressure the Cardinals bring.  Look at how well Wichita State State looked when they didn't turn the ball over.  For 33 minutes they had four TOs and 12 point lead, then proceeded to give the ball away seven times in the last seven minutes and lose the game.  It's been a long time coming for Michigan.  The Fab Five in 1993 was the last time the Wolverines were in the title game.  Since then they've had to deal with NCAA sanctions, bad coaches and high profile players not wanting to come to a school with a lot of baggage.  One of the youngest teams in the country will do what the Fab Five couldn't and cut down the nets.  Michigan will earn it's second National Championship in a hard fought game 68-64.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Final Four Recap

Michigan survives late Syracuse surge to reach championship game

If you told me Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Nik Stauskas would be a combined 5-29 from the field and Caris LeVert would outscore Burke, I would think Michigan lost by double digits.  But that wasn't the case because the Wolverines used defense and offensive rebounding to overcome Syracuse 61-56.  In the first half Michigan was down 17-15 before ending the half on a 21-8 run spurred by the bench.  In the second, Syracuse slowly fought back and made it close in the waning minutes.  Cuse started pressing late and the pressure seemed to be getting to the Wolverines.  With less than a minute left the Orange started fouling and Michigan only made 4-8 free throws down the stretch to keep the game undecided.  But the controversy came on a questionable call with 19 seconds left and Cuse down two, after Burke split a pair at the line.  Brandon Triche drove the lane and Jordan Morgan stepped in for a charge.  The block/charge is the hardest call to make in basketball and refs like to swallow their whistles late.  But with how much contact there was, something had to be called and the ref went with a charge.  After another split at the stripe, this time by Jon Horford, Syracuse was down three but turned the ball over and Morgan finished the game with a breakaway dunk.  The two main stories leading up to this game was how will Michigan handle the Orange 2-3 zone and who will win the point guard matchup between Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams.  Let's talk about the zone first and in the first half Michigan was tearing it apart.  Mitch McGary became a play maker from the high post with a career high six assists.  Reserves Spike Albrecht and LeVert came in to hit two huge 3s each to provide a much needed lift from the bench.  Stauskas was looked at to be a key part to beating the zone after he went 6-6 in the Elite 8 from beyond arc but last night he missed all four of his attempts.  When the 3-point shot wasn't on, McGary and Glenn Robinson III where able to keep possessions alive with five offensive rebounds apiece.  As for the great PG matchup, neither was impressive.  Burke was 1-8 from the field with seven points and four assists, while MCW went 1-6 with two points and two assists.  Not only did MCW account for six total points, but he also had five turnovers and fouled out.  It was a night he'd much rather forget.  The one player that kept Syracuse in the game the whole night was C.J. Fair.  He realized he had a height and athletic advantage over anybody that Michigan put on him as he put up 22 and got the Orange back in the game in the second half.  Triche played good down the stretch as well, finishing with 11 points and 8 assists.  But, again for Michigan it was McGary, who might be having the best tournament of anybody so far.  He had his third double-double with 10 and 12 boards.  They now head to National Championship game 20 years after the Fab Five last did it for U of M.  This was only the second game of the year Burke scored single-digits and if Michigan wants its second national title, they will need more out of the National Player of the Year.  On a side note, Michigan called its last timeout with 1:51 to go in a very tight game.  I started having flashbacks of 20 years ago and Chris Webber's fatal timeout when they didn't have any.  I just pictured in my head Mitch McGary (who wears #4 like Webber) finding himself trapped in a corner and calling one more TO.

Louisville uses their bench to rally past the Shockers

Wichita State was ready to continue shocking the world for about 30 of the 40 minutes in their Final Four game against top seed Louisville.  That was until the pressure ramped up and Luke Hancock took over.  In the first half Wichita State did exactly what they needed to, handle the Louisville pressure and limit turnovers.  While doing so the Shockers were able to hold a 26-25 lead and only had four turnovers.  Louisville has owned the second half of games in the tournament but WSU came out ready to play and opened up a 47-35 with about 13 minutes left.  The dominate Cardinals now look vulnerable but an unsuspecting player stepped up, Luke Hancock.  Just like coming to the aid of Kevin Ware after his injury, Hancock did not shy away from the big moment and carried his team.  The junior captain averages seven points a game but scored 14 of his 20 in the second half to bring Louisville back on a 21-8 run to take a 56-55 lead with 6:30 left.  It seemed like this was the run we were all waiting for Louisville to make and they were going to close it out easily.  But Cleanthony Early didn't stop fighting.  Down five with less than two minutes left, Early scored six straight for the Shockers as they were extending the game with fouls.  This game had its share of controversy as well when it was Hancock at the line with a two point lead and eight seconds to go.  He makes the first but misses the second and Wichita State's Ron Baker grabs the long rebound but Hancock ties him up for the jumpball.  The possession arrow favored Louisville and Russ Smith hit a free throw to give us our final score 72-68.  Now some think the whistle was blown too early and Baker had actually wrestled the ball away, but my problem is with the alternating possession rule of jumpballs.  You are telling me that refs are that bad in throwing the ball straight up in the air that we can't have an actual jumpball after tie-ups?  Nonetheless, Louisville gets the win and a chance to play for a championship even with their starters being out played by the bench.  The starters were 10-33 from the field for 38 points, the bench was 12-16 for 34 points.  Smith scored 21 but on 6-17 shooting and only 5-12 from the line, Peyton Siva was 1-9 for seven points and three assists, while Gorgui Dieng was almost non-existent missing the only shot he took but grabbing six rebounds.  Along with Hancock's 20, Montrezl Harrell had eight and Tim Henderson (who only had 16 points all year) hit two back-to-back 3s when Louisville was down 12.  For the Shockers, Early finished with 24 and 10 rebounds and Carl Hall added 13 points.  Malcolm Armstead was the MOP of the West region but only managed 1-10 shooting with seven assists.  Louisville looked shaky for 3/4s of the game but when they needed it, their defense created turnovers and their bench became the scoring threats.  They move on to play Michigan, a team that commits the fewest turnovers in the country, which should make for a great matchup.

Friday, April 5, 2013

What To Watch: Michigan Wolverines vs Syracuse Orange

In this game we have a battle of strengths, the classic offense vs defense matchup when Michigan takes on Syracuse.  This is the first time two 4-seeds meet in the Final Four and it could be a memorable one.  Michigan is averaging 79 points a game and Syracuse is holding opponents to just under 46 a game.   Can Michigan score on the Orange stingy D?  Will Syracuse be able to keep pace with the Wolverines?  John Beilein and Jim Boeheim have history from when Beilein was coaching West Virgina in the Big East.  Boeheim holds a 9-0 record.

How They Got Here 

Michigan - South Dakota State 71-56, VCU 78-53, Kansas 87-85 OT, Florida 79-59.

Against VCU and Florida they played two of their best games of the season as they got contributions from the entire team on both ends of the court.  The Kansas game was a whole other story.  Mitch McGary was solid throughout but Trey Burke carried the team late.  We all remember this, right?

Syracuse - Montana 81-34, California 66-60, Indiana 61-50, Marquette 55-39.

All four teams left in the bracket have pretty much dominated every opponent they've faced and that's no different for Syracuse.  Their defense has been tremendous, holding Montana, Indiana and Marquette to season low's in scoring.  Their zone defense has been ran to perfection so far.

Player To Watch

Mitch McGary has vastly improved his play in the tournament but Glenn Robinson III has been the x-factor for Michigan all year.  Robinson will be more important than any other game as he is one of the main keys to causing havoc for the Syracuse 2-3.  He will be looked upon to get in the middle of the zone and hit mid range jumpers.  Also, step outside to knock in a few corner triples to stretch the defense.  But Michigan will need him to hit the boards hard.  Robinson will have to use his speed and athleticism against the bigger Syracuse front line to keep possessions alive if his teammates aren't making outside shots.

Key Matchup

Trey Burke vs Michael Carter-Williams.  Burke is racking up all kinds of awards this year, while Carter-Williams has gone somewhat under the radar to have a stellar sophomore season of his own.  Here are the two by the numbers...

                PPG      RPG      APG      SPG      TO      FG%      3P%
Burke -    18.8       3.1         6.8         1.6        2.2      46.4       38.1
MCW -     12.1       4.9         7.4         2.8        3.4      39.7       29.7

As you can see Burke has the advantage in all the shooting categories and turnovers while MCW takes rebounds, assists and steals.  Since Syracuse plays zone MCW won't have to guard Burke one-on-one but his length on the top of that 2-3 has been big all year.  He almost takes three steals a game because of his 6'6 frame with an even longer wingspan.  Burke is going to have to find creases to penetrate and clear passing lanes against the size of MCW.  Also, it provides somewhat of a mismatch on the other end as Carter-Williams has a six inch height advantage over Burke.  Don't be surprise to Burke matched up with the smaller Brandon Triche while Tim Hardaway Jr checks MCW.

Prediction

This game is definitely tough to call, it's basically which teams strength will prove stronger.  I believe Michigan, with their outside shooting, is going to be the one to escape with the win.  In the Elite 8 Nik Stauskas finally found his stroke again, hitting on all six of his 3-point attempts.  Along with Burke and Hardaway, this team has multiple outside threats.  Let's not forget about Michigan's defense in the tournament either.  Aside from the Kansas game, the Wolverines have been stingy as well, keeping their other three opponents under 60 points a game.  I don't think this will be a shootout by any means but Michigan has the better offense.  And in a game when buckets will be tough to come by, I have to go with the team that can put up points.

Game: Michigan
Bet: Michigan -1.5

Thursday, April 4, 2013

What To Watch: Louisville Cardinals vs Wichita State Shockers

The first game in the Final Four is a matchup between a team most picked to win a championship against a team some picked to lose in the first round.  Louisville, the #1 overall seed, is here by no surprise as they are the only team left to win their conference tournament and have rode that momentum in the Big Dance.  The also have a little extra motivation after the terrible injury suffered by backup point guard Kevin Ware against Duke.  The Cardinals will sport "Win It For Kevin" t-shirts during warmups.  The Wichita State Shockers on the other hand are this years Cinderella, becoming the 5th team seeded 9th or lower to reach the Final Four.  However, none of those previous teams made it to the championship game.  If the Shockers hope to do that they will have to slow down a team nobody has been able to in the Cardinals last 14 games.


How They Got Here

Louisville - North Carolina A&T 79-48, Colorado State 82-56, Oregon 77-69, Duke 85-63.

The Cardinals have ran through every opponent they've faced and have lived up to their #1 overall seed.  The nine point win over Oregon was the slimmest margin but it was not that close.

Wichita State - Pittsburgh 73-55, Gonzaga 76-70, LaSalle 72-58,  Ohio State 70-66.

The Shockers upset the #1 and #2 seeds in their region to reach the Final Four but even won those games in impressive fashion.  They led the entire first half against 1-seed Gonzaga before needing to comeback from seven down with less than six minutes to play.  Against Ohio State they led for all but 42 seconds when OSU was up 9-7 early.

Player To Watch

Russ Smith is the hottest player in the tournament averaging 26 a game on 54% shooting and scoring in ever way.  In transition, jumpers, 3s, and from the line.  Smith is a catalyst on defense as well with over two steals a game and a season high eight against UNC A&T in the round of 64.  Basically, Smith is the barometer for how Louisville will play as he's their leader on both ends of the court.

Key Matchup

Malcolm Armstead held his own going up against Aaron Craft, the best on-ball defender in the country, only turning the ball over three times.  Armstead now gets to face even more pressure from the Louisville press, spear headed by Smith and Peyton Siva, that has forced over 60 turnovers in four games.  Being able to get the Shockers into their offense is going to be key to them staying in the game.  Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall will only be able to do damage if Armstead can get them the ball.  He's made a name for himself in the tournament as a solid PG but if he has trouble getting passed half court it's going to be a long night for the senior.

Prediction

Louisville was already going to be a tough out for any team in the tournament but now are on a mission playing for Kevin Ware.  They are playing the best basketball of anybody left and want to bring a championship to their fallen teammate.  Wichita State has made a great run but I don't think they can handle what Smith and Siva will bring in terms of pressure and Gorgui Dieng will negate anything Early tries to do inside.  The Cardinals defense has been suffocating teams and Wichita State has seen nothing like them.  They will treat Cinderella poorly and send her home from the tournament.

Game: Louisville
Bet: Louisville -9.5



Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Elite 8 Day 2 Recap

Louisville recovers after gruesome injury to get past Duke

It was a simple play that turned into a horrific injury for Louisville guard Kevin Ware.  With 6:33 left in the first half, Ware jumped to contest a 3-pointer but when he landed his leg buckled and his tibia was fractured.  It's a play that happens hundreds of times in each game but I don't think anybody has ever seen anything like that injury in a basketball game.  I'm not going to post a link because it's seriously that bad, but If you don't have a weak stomach you can search for it yourself.  At that point Louisville was up 21-20 and took a 35-32 lead into halftime.  While on the stretcher about to be taken off the court, Ware kept repeating, "just go win the game," and after composing themselves in the locker room Louisville came out strong in the second half.  About four minutes in, the score was tied at 42, but the Cardinals went on a 20-4 and never looked back as they cruised to an 85-63 win.  Russ Smith continued his hot streak with 24 points and Peyton Siva contributed 16.  Gorgui Dieng, who missed the first meeting with Duke, added 14 points, 11 boards and four blocks.  The Blue Devils struggled all game from the outside going only 4-16 from 3.  Mason Plumlee was the lone bright spot with 17 points and 12 rebounds.  A big mention has to go to Louisville reserve Luke Hancock.  When Ware went down with his injury, it was right in front of the Louisville bench.  Once his teammates saw his leg they either ran away or instantly fell to the floor.  But, Hancock came to the side of his fallen teammate to give support while the doctors worked to stabilize Ware's leg.  After the initial shock to the team went away, Louisville seemed to be on a mission to win for Ware.  They get the surprising Wichita State team in the Final Four, but so far nobody has been able to compete with the Cardinals.

Michigan, Nik Stauskas, shoot Florida out of the gym

After a thrilling comeback against Kansas, everybody was wondering how Michigan would fare in a quick turnaround game with Florida.  From the opening tip the Wolverines showed they were ready while the Gators couldn't get anything going.  Michigan jumped out to an early 13-0 lead with Mitch McGary scoring eight of those points.  Then Nik Stauskas caught fire.  The freshman sharp-shooter connected on 6-6 shots and 5-5 3-pointers in the first half.  It seemed like every time Florida tried to get back in the game Stauskas would come through.  The Gators started to close the gap to end the first half but fouled Stauskas on a 3-point attempt right before the halftime buzzer.  Then in the second, Florida cut the lead to 11 with just over 16 minutes to play and again Stauskas buries a triple, he finished with 22.  In the end Michigan wrapped up a Final Four birth 79-59, their first since the Fab Five in 1993.  The Gators were never able to keep up offensively and learned nothing from watching Kansas dominate the paint as they were satisfied with taking jumpers all day.  Florida was a popular pick by many to win the South region, mainly because Ken Pomeroy had them ranked #1 overall after the regular season.  But I felt their offensive and defensive numbers were highly inflated (and deflated) due to playing in a very bad SEC.  The only other team to make the tournament was Ole Miss, who did win their first game, but if they didn't beat Florida in the SEC Championship game they would have been a bubble team.  After his late game heroics on Friday night, Trey Burke cooled off, only hitting 5-16 shots for 15 points.  The B1G POY still controlled the game with a season high eight rebounds, seven assists, and only one turnover.  Statistically Michigan is the best offensive but worst defensive team remaining.  They next matchup with Syracuse and their vaunted 2-3 defense.



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Elite 8 Day 1 Recap

Wichita State shocks another top seed to earn a trip to Atlanta

Cinderella is still dancing as Wichita State took down the 2-seed Ohio State 70-66.  The Buckeyes couldn't hit anything in the first half as the Shockers built a 35-22 halftime lead as Cleanthony Early led the way.  In the second it was more of the same for the first nine minutes as WSU pushed the lead to 56-36 with 11:01 left.  But Ohio State wasn't about to give up yet.  After seeing Michigan erase a 14-point deficit with less than seven minutes to go against Kansas the night before, OSU started to chip away.  The Buckeyes went on a 23-6 run to make it 62-59 with 2:49 remaining.  In a spot where most thought the 9-seed Shockers would continue to wilt, they came up big.  First it was Tekele Cotton who hit a 3-pointer on their next possession.  Then after Deshaun Thomas scored, Fred Vanvleet made a shot in the lane that bounced at least six times on the rim before finally dropping.  From then on it was a foul fest and OSU wasn't able to complete their comeback.  Wichita State had great balance on offense as six players scored at least eight, led by Malcolm Armstead with 14 and Early with 12.  The Shockers also played great defense holding the Buckeyes to only 31% from the field and 5-25 on 3-pointers (OSU was 50% in the tournament prior).  On the outside, Armstead held Aaron Craft to only 2-12 shooting while Carl Hall controlled the paint with six blocks.  OSU star Deshaun Thomas finished with 23 and LaQuinton Ross played well for the third consecutive game adding 19 but it wasn't enough.  Wichita State only won by four but pretty much dominated for 3/4's of the game and earned their ticket to the Final Four.  Their region was decimated with upsets but they managed to get past the #1 and #2 seeded teams in the West.  The Shockers might be a mid-major 9-seed but they have proven themselves worthy and should not be taken lightly by either Louisville or Duke.

Syracuse continues its strong defense, knocking off Big East foe

It wasn't the prettiest game but that's how Syracuse is making their opponents look on offense, ugly.  The Orange held Marquette to only 18 points in the first half and 39 for the game as they smothered their Big East counterpart for the 55-39 victory.  Marquette's 39 points was the fewest ever scored in an Elite Eight game in the shot clock era.  The Syracuse 2-3 zone has been dominating opponents all tournament with their length and athleticism.  To have a guy like Michael Carter-Williams (6'6) at the top of the zone is what causes trouble for other teams.  His length makes it difficult to find passing lanes and he's able to challenge 3-point attempts.  MCW had 12 points, eight rebound, six assists, and five steals with only one turnover against Marquette.  Speaking of turnovers, Marquette is now the third team to have more turnovers than field goals made against the Orange in this years tournament, joining Montana and Indiana.  The Golden Eagles had 14 TOs but only 12 shots made on 22% shooting.  Cuse's defense is unbelievable right now, they are holding teams to 14 less points than in the regular season (45.8 per game), 29% from the field and 15% from long range.  James Southerland was a big spark in the scoring department, putting in 16 and can be a killer from deep.  The remaining teams should be fearful of Syracuse and their zone, nobody seems to be able to figure it out.  If defense wins championships, the Orange are in prime position to cut down the nets.



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Saturday, March 30, 2013

What To Watch For In The Elite 8

Marquette vs Syracuse

Player To Watch - Vander Blue has done whatever this team has needed during their run in the tournament and he will have to continue that against Syracuse.  Marquette is not a good 3-point shooting team (30%) but Blue has gone 5-10 in his first three games.  That coupled with his penetration ability is what the Golden Eagles are going to need to breakdown the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which caused Indiana fits.

Key Matchup - These two Big East teams only played once in the regular season, a game Marquette won 74-71.  This is more of a team thing than individual as it's Marquette's offense against the Syracuse 2-3 zone.  In their game against Indiana, the Orange befuddled the Hoosiers because they rarely had to play against a 2-3 but Marquette sees it every year.  In their first game Davante Gardner had 26 points and eight boards but everybody else struggled, especially from the 3-point line.  There are multiple ways to beat the zone but hitting outside shots helps a lot and if Marquette is cold again from beyond the arc they might not be as fortunate to escape with a win.

Deciding Factor - Rebounding.  Can Syracuse rebound out of their zone and can Marquette keep the bigger Orange off the offensive glass.  Playing a zone makes it difficult to find a man and box out especially against hustle guys like Gardner and Jamil Wilson.  But the Orange have the size to attack the offensive boards as well with Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, James Southerland and C.J. Fair.  Marquette and Syracuse had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively in their first game and the team that can limit the other has a great chance of winning.


Ohio State vs Wichita State

Player To Watch - Aaron Craft has been playing great offensively and defensively in Ohio State's first three games, including hitting a game winner against Iowa State.  All year he's been the x-factor for this team.  We know what to expect out of Deshaun Thomas but when Craft plays like he has been this team can beat anybody in the country.  He's averaging six assists and just over 11 points in the tournament.  He's going up against a senior in Malcolm Armstead that's been playing well himself so it will be interesting to see if Craft's pressure will get to him.

Key Matchup - Deshaun Thomas vs Carl Hall.  Thomas led the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and hasn't slowed down in the tournament.  Hall played great against LaSalle, 16 and 8, but containing Thomas is a difficult task.  It's tough to say that Hall can neutralize Thomas but if he keeps their matchup somewhat close Wichita State has a better chance of pulling the upset.

Deciding Factor - These teams are basically mirror images of each other if you look at stats across the board.  Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and turnovers are all pretty even.  To me it's going to come down to if Deshaun Thomas continues to get help on the offensive end.  Whether is Craft, LaQuinton Ross, or Lezelle Smith Jr, somebody else has to score.  Ross has put up 17 in the each of the last two games but if that stops OSU will struggle.  Wichita State is a deeper team so if they have multiple guys contributing, as they have so far, look for them to stay with the Buckeyes until the end.


Michigan vs Florida

Player To Watch - Obviously Trey Burke.  But I'm going with Mitch McGary.  John Beilein finally decided to start the big freshman and it's paying off.  McGary is averaging just under 20 points and a little over 12 rebounds in the tournament.  All of a sudden this guy is playing like one of the best big men in the country.

Key Matchup - Trey Burke against the Gators pressure.  Burke had 23 points and a huge game-tying 3-pointer from super long range against Kansas but has turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the tournament.  During the regular season Burke had the best assist to turnover ratio in the country but has 13 in three games in the tournament, including seven against VCU.  The Gators forced 20 turnovers against Florida Gulf Coast and have three guards that bring pressure.  Burke will be the likely Player of the Year but if he continues to struggle with turnovers it can put Michigan in a bad spot.

Deciding Factor - Offense vs Defense.  The Gators have won by double digits in every victory this year but when they've lost they've had a hard time scoring.  Even in their win against FGCU they only shot 38%.  Michigan on the other hand has hovered around 50% all tournament but their defense has been shaky all year.  If Michigan can limit Florida on offense they will likely win.  But Florida is ranked in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy's offense and defense and has the ability to run with the Wolverines.  If it's a shooting match, the Gators defense is better and will help them prevail.


Louisville vs Duke 

Player To Watch - Gorgui Dieng.  In their first matchup he didn't play and Mason Plumlee had 16 and seven rebounds to help Duke get a 76-71 win.  With Dieng back in the lineup he's one player that can stop Plumlee on offense and the glass.  Dieng is averaging a double-double on the year with 2.5 blocks and is the inside presence Louisville needs to make a title run.

Key Matchup - Russ Smith vs Seth Curry.  These are the two hottest shooters in the country as Smith is averaging 27 and Curry with 24.  Both of these guys have the ability to go for 30 and very well might.  If you like scoring then this is the best matchup for it from here on out.

Deciding Factor -  Can Duke stop Louisville?  The Cardinals entire offense has been on point as they've shot at least 54% in every game in the tourney so far.  If Duke wants to win this game they have to figure out a way to slow them down because so far nobody has been able to.  I expect this to be a classic game between these two teams and coaches, Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski.



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Sweet 16 Day 2 Recap

Michigan rallies late to force OT and advance to Elite 8

It looked all but over when Kansas led 68-54 with less than seven minutes left in the game but that's when Michigan turned up its defense and Trey Burke played like the POY he is.  In the first half Kansas couldn't miss as they shot 68% but only had a six point lead, 40-34, despite Burke going scoreless.  The Jayhawks were scoring at will inside as Jeff Withey, Kevin Young and Perry Ellis appeared to be unstoppable in the paint.  In the second half it was more of the same for KU for the first 12 minutes but Burke was finally starting to make a scoring impact.  With Kansas up 14 late, Michigan ramped up their defense exposing the lack of point guard for KU forcing bad passes and a crucial 10-second call.  The Wolverines kept fighting back but still found themselves down ten with 2:22 and then five with 21 seconds left.   After Burke hit a layup, Elijah Johnson was at the free throw line shooting one-and-one.  He missed, which left the door open for Burke to solidify his Player of the Year status as he hit a 30-footer to send the game to overtime.  Riding that momentum, Michigan came out strong in OT creating an 87-82 lead.  Kansas still had a chance to tie only down two with nine seconds left when Johnson looked to have an open lane, but he kicked it out to Naadir Tharpe who missed the game-winning 3-pointer.  Somehow Michigan pulled out the win in this game.  Burke scored all 23 of his points in the second half and OT but it was Mitch McGary who kept this team in it the entire game.  McGary finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds as he and Burke (also 10 assists) became the fourth pair of teammates to have 20 points, 10 assists and 25 points, 10 rebounds in a NCAA tournament game.  Another pair was Glen Rice and Rumeal Robinson when Michigan won the title in '89.  For Kansas, their best player Ben McLemore finally showed up in the tournament putting in 20 points on 4-8 beyond the arc.  Also, Withey was dominate inside with 12 points, eight boards, and five blocks.  As for Johnson, he day started and ended badly.  Not even two minutes into the game he was called for a flagrant foul after hitting McGary below the belt, then to end regulation he missed a free throw to ice the game, and at the end of OT he passed on what looked like to be an open game-tying layup.  Throughout the year Michigan was on the wrong side of games like this (see Wisconsin and Indiana) but last night they showed their resiliency and pulled off the improbable comeback.  It doesn't get any easier from here on out either, but Michigan reaches the Elite 8 for the first time since 1994.

Florida ends Florida Gulf Coast Cinderella run

For the first 15 minutes Florida Gulf Coast seemed to be on their way to another upset and continuing their Cinderella run.  The Eagles were up 24-14 before the Gators ended the first half on a 16-2 run to take a 30-26 lead at the break.  After that Florida never looked back.  "Dunk City" was a great story while it lasted but they were severely over matched by the bigger and stronger Gators.  The story was offensive rebounding for Florida and turnovers for FGCU.  Florida shot only 38% but collected 13 offensive rebounds and forced 20 turnovers which led to 16 points.  In the first two games Eagles PG Brett Comer averaged 12 assists and only 2.5 TOs but the Gators guards applied the pressure throughout the game making Comer turn the ball over nine times.  Mike Rosario scored 15 for Florida and Casey Prather chipped in 11 off the bench.  FGCU's standout guard Sherwood Brown led them with 14 and 6 rebounds.  The entire country backed the small Florida school against its big brother but the talent disparity finally reared its ugly head as the Eagles tied a season low 50 points.  With the 62-50 win the Gators have still claimed every victory by double-digits.  A date with Michigan is scheduled for a trip to the Final Four.

Duke, Coach K outlasts Michigan State, Izzo

The battle between two of the best coaches in college basketball went the way we expected in the first half, a strategic back and forth game.  Duke took an eight point lead but MSU quickly cut the deficit to one before the half 32-31.  However, early in the second the Blue Devils went on a 9-0 run which Michigan State was never able to overcome as they fell to Duke 71-61.  The problem for Sparty was that Seth curry was on fire.  He came out in the second connecting on his first three attempts from long range and finished with 29 points on 6-9 from distance.  His performance was very reminiscent of his brother Stephen for Davidson in his run to the Elite 8 in 2008.  These teams matched up pretty well across the board especially with each team having two bigs, one that likes to bang (Mason Plumlee and Derrick Nix) and one that plays outside (Ryan Kelly and Adreian Payne).  They pretty much cancelled each other out (Plumlee and Kelly 23 pts 14 rebs, Nix and Payne 23 pts 19 rebs), but Michigan State had nobody to help Keith Appling on the outside.  The Spartans were only 3-12 from deep and their freshman stud Gary Harris missed both his 3-point attempts and was 2-11 from the field.  Coach K now owns a 7-1 advantage against Tom Izzo.

Louisville, Russ Smith, easily takes care of Oregon

Louisville jumped out to a 24-8 lead in the first 10 minutes and that's all the Cardinals needed as they cruised to a 77-69 win.  Russ Smith continued to be "Russdiculous" as he tied a career high 31 points on 9-16 from the field and 12-14 from the line.  He's now averaging 27 in the tourney and I don't think there's another player that has looked better.  Gorgui Dieng contributed 10 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks.  Louisville has been pressuring teams like crazy in the tournament, taking a NCAA record 20 steals in their first game, but only forced 12 Oregon turnovers.  Give a lot of credit to the Ducks as well because they were able to fight back in the second half and cut the deficit to six with 5:13 left but wouldn't get any closer.  Arsalan Kazemi posted another double-double with 11 and 12, and E.J. Single had 15 points.  Louisville is definitely the team to beat right now and are the only #1 seed to make it to the Elite 8.  Their rewarded with facing Duke for a Final Four bid.  The last time Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski met in a regional final was in 1992 and Christian Laettner hit his game-winning shot.   These two teams met in November with Duke taking it 76-71, but that was without Dieng so Louisville is looking for revenge.



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Friday, March 29, 2013

Sweet 16 Day 1 Recap

Ohio State does it again, downing Arizona in the final seconds

For the second straight game Ohio State was tied with its opponent and had the ball for the last shot.  Against Iowa State it was Aaron Craft who hit the dagger 3-pointer, tonight against Arizona it was LaQuinton Ross.  This game was back and forth all night, with each team controlling a half.  In the first it was all Arizona who held an 11 point lead before the Buckeyes cut it to four, 38-34, at the break.  OSU opened the second stanza with a 10-0 run to take a six point lead, which later grew to ten.  But the Wildcats weren't done as Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons kept them in it during OSU's run.  At one point Hill scored nine straight and finished with 16 on 7-11 shooting.  In the last 1:20 Arizona was down 69-63 when Lyons scored the last nine for the Cats and he tied the game at 70 with 21 seconds left.  So again OSU can take the last shot and the ball is in Craft's hands.  This time he gives it up to Ross who nails the triple with only two seconds remaining and Ohio State finishes off Arizona 73-70.  Ross was on fire in the second half as he scored 14 of his 17 after the intermission.  For Arizona, Lyons had a great tournament scoring no less than 23 in each of his three games.  In the 2012 NCAA tournament, players were 0-12 in the last ten seconds on potential game-tying or go-ahead field goal attempts.  This year we've already had four made field goals by Vander Blue, Tyrone Garland, Aaron Craft, and now LaQuinton Ross.

Syracuse and the 2-3 zone slows down Indiana

That sound you hear are thousands of people ripping up their brackets.  If Gonzaga and Miami going down wasn't enough, we lost a very popular pick to win it all when Indiana fell to Syracuse 61-50.  The Orange controlled the pace of the game and slowed down Indiana with their 2-3 zone.  The Hoosiers scored a season low 50 points while shooting 33% from the field (3-15 on 3's) and committed 18 turnovers.  Syracuse was disruptive all night with their length blocking ten shots and creating 12 steals as Michael Carter-Williams led the way.  MCW had 24 points and 4 steals because nobody on Indiana could contain him, not even Victor Oladipo.  But, Oladipo was the lone bright spot for IU scoring 16 on 5-6 from the field.  Cody Zeller posted 10 and 10 but was 3-11, and Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls combined for 4-17 (Hulls 0-6).  Syracuse is a tough team to prepare for if you don't play against a lot of zone during the regular season and they are a very dangerous team that seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball.

Marquette breezes past Miami FL to get to Elite 8

The Marquette Golden Eagles were a bad in-bounds pass away from being bounced early by Davidson and are now heading to the Elite 8 after routing Miami.  Marquette won its first two games of the tournament by a total of three points but against the Hurricanes their largest lead was 22 before the game finished at 71-61.  It was definitely a total team effort as the six players that scored all had at least eight points and Jamil Wilson led with 16.  Marquette shot 54% from the field and held Miami to only 35% and 8-26 on 3-pointers.  The Hurricanes had a terrible start to the game, only scoring 16 in the first half and were never able to recover.  The Golden Eagles reach the Elite 8 for the first time since 2003 when Dwyane Wade was running the show.  This year it's been Vander Blue leading this team hitting the game-winner against Davidson, putting in 29 in a 74-72 win over Butler and last night scoring 14 on 7-12 shooting.  Marquette had an early exit in the Big East tournament but are now showing signs of the surprise team that shared a regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown.  They epitomize the word "team" and now have to face a familiar foe in Syracuse for a chance to go to Atlanta for the Final Four.

The Shockers continue their post season run

For the first time in this tournament Wichita State was the favorite in their matchup with LaSalle and they played like it.  The Shockers started the game on a 17-3 run and the game was basically over from then on as they cruised to a 72-58 win.  Carl Hall scored ten of his 16 points during that run and also added eight boards.  In the second half it was Malcolm Armstead that paced the Shockers scoring nine straight at one point en route to leading the team with 18.  Wichita State also played great defensively holding LaSalle to only 35% shooting and continued their trend of keeping their first three opponents to that same percentage.  For the Explorers, Ramon Galloway and Tyrone Garland were a combined 9-30 from the field.  Wichita State has a date with Ohio State on Sunday and earlier in the tournament Thad Matta told reporters teams that a good at rebounding scare him.  Well, the Shockers outrebounded LaSalle 44-23.



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Thursday, March 28, 2013

NCAA Tournament Day 4 Recap

Florida Gulf Coast continues its Cinderella run

After disposing of the 2-seed Georgetown, Florida Gulf Coast sent San Diego State packing as well 81-71 and became the first ever 15-seed to reach the Sweet 16.  Not only has this team pulled off two huge upsets, they've done it rather easily.  Despite trailing by one at the half, 35-34, FGCU came out strong again in the second and they are averaging 50.5 points per game in the latter half of games.  Jamaal Franklin did everything he could for SDSU, 20 points and 11 rebounds, but it wasn't enough for the Aztecs.  The Eagles were lighting it up all game hitting 56% of their shots, led by Bernard Thompson and Sherwood Brown who scored 23 and 17 respectively.  Brett Comer also had a great game as a facilitator dishing out 14 assists and plenty of alley-oops for "Dunk City".  FGCU is having more fun than any other team and it shows on the court, which definitely helps their play.  They are loose and free but might tighten up as they go deeper into the tournament and the pressure mounts.  Next they face the University of Florida and who would have thought the first matchup between sunshine state foes would be against Florida Gulf Coast in the Sweet 16, not Miami in the Final Four.

Aaron Craft lifts Ohio State over Iowa State

The South Region was busted wide open before Ohio State took the court Sunday with the number 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 seeds all being knocked out.  The Buckeyes almost joined that list but Aaron Craft made the last seven points for OSU including the game-winning 3-pointer with one second remaining to advance 78-75.  The game was tight the entire first half but with 6:07 to go in the game Ohio State took its biggest lead of the game 69-56.  Immediately, Iowa State went on a 13-0 run to tie the game.  Later, with the game tied at 75, Craft missed the potential go ahead jumper with 30 seconds left but the Cyclones couldn't come up with the rebound (the ball looked like it might have been knocked out by Deshaun Thomas but there is no review in college, we will revisit this in a moment).  So Ohio State, and Craft, were given another chance and he delivered.  Craft finished with 18 points and 6 assists while Thomas added 22 as the Buckeyes shot better than 50% from the field and beyond the arc.  ISU was led by Korie Lucious (19) and Will Clyburn (17) but lost their best defender and solid outside shooter, Chris Babb, late in the first half.  OSU will now play the only other team in their region to not be upset in the rounds of 64 or 32, 6-seed Arizona.

Miami FL escapes against Illnois

Possibly the most controversial game so far, Miami FL looked to be in control of this game early but needed Shane Larkin and a little help from the refs to comeback late to beat Illinois 63-59.  Let's just fast-forward to the end, with less than two minutes left Illinois held a 55-54 lead.  Shane Larkin hit a big 3-pointer for Miami to give them the 57-55 edge with 1:00 left.  On the ensuing possession, D.J. Richardson missed a 3 of his own and with both teams going for the rebound the ball gets knocked out of bounds.  The officials give it to the Hurricanes but the replay clearly shows Kenny Kadji being the last to touch it which would give Illinois another chance to tie or take the lead.  Instead they are forced to foul and the U hit their free throws.  This was the second game of the day where there was a questionable call with a ball going out of bounds late in a close game.  The Ohio State call would have been tough to overturn but was definitely worth a look, however there was no question Kadji touched it last.  Look for college to adapt the NBA rule of being to look at possession in the last two minutes of games on replay.  Now I'm not saying Illinois would have won if they got the ball but you never know what can happen, especially with a shooter like Brandon Paul.  Their chances would have been better if Paul (18 points) could have received a little help from their second leading scorer, Richardson, could have hit a few shots as he went 1-11 from the field.  Larkin had 17 for the Hurricanes but reserve Rion Brown came up big with 21 points on 5-10 from deep.

Indiana rallies late past Temple

The Indiana Hoosiers were less than two minutes away from being eliminated early as Temple's Khalif Wyatt almost single-handily made IU the second #1 seed to fall.  But Victor Oladipo wouldn't let that happen.  Wyatt was hot from the tip as the Owls held the halftime lead 29-26 and maintained that lead for most of the second half.  Indiana crawled back to take a 53-52 edge and with 15 seconds left Oladipo all but ended the game with a dagger 3-pointer.  The Hoosiers ended the game on a 10-0 run to earn a 58-52 victory.  Oladipo finished with 16 points and eight rebounds, while Cody Zeller added 15 and six.  For the Owls, Wyatt dropped 31on 12-24 from the field but was only 3-12 from distance.  His teammate and second leading scorer, Scootie Randall, went 0-12 as Temple shot only 34% as a team.  Randall's performance tied UConn's Khalid El-Amin for the worst shooting performance in the tournament since the field expanded in 1985.  Every year the team that wins it all needs to squeak by at least one opponent, Indiana is hoping this will be the only one.

LaSalle beats the clock to reach Sweet 16

The only game that featured two teams that pulled off upsets in the second round came down to the last possession as LaSalle's Tyrone Garland hit a running layup with three seconds left to send Ole Miss home, 76-74.  The was tight throughout and the lead switched hands multiple times down the stretch, luckily for the Explorers they held the ball last and were able to finish it off.  Garland scored 17 but it was Ramon Galloway that led the way with 24 on 6-10 on 3-pointers.  For the Rebels, Marshall Henderson put in 21 and Murphy Holloway added 14 and 13 boards.  The craziest stat from this game I saw was that in two tournament games, Henderson had 64 touches and only passed the ball 18 times.  I know he can score but that's ridiculous.  Especially when you have solid post players like Holloway and Reginald Buckner.  This team could be so much better if Henderson deferred more often.  Now, LaSalle moves on to the Sweet 16 to play Wichita State.  This is the first time ever two teams ranked 13 or lower reached the Sweet 16 as LaSalle and Florida Gulf Coast made it to the second weekend.



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Monday, March 25, 2013

NCAA Tournament Day 2 Recap

Florida Gulf Coast drops Georgetown

We almost had a 16 beat a 1 yesterday but today we had the pleasure of watching 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast take down 2-seed Georgetown.  This game was played in Philadelphia and the Eagles seemed to have a little Rocky Balboa in them.  The amazing thing about all these upsets is that the lower seeded teams are winning the games outright.  We aren't seeing any miracle Bryce Drew shots, except in the commercials.  The only buzzer-beater we've seen is from Marquette to prevent an upset.  FGCU closed the first half on a 13-2 run to take a 24-22 lead at the break.  Then with the game tied at 31, the Eagles went on a 19-2 run in a four minute span.  This is not something the 15-seed is supposed to be doing!  Nor do they usually make highlights like Chase Fieler did.  But when you control the pace of the game like FGCU did, you can do that.  They knew the Hoyas like to play at a slower pace so they sped the game up and it worked.  Georgetown tried to make a run at the end but it was way too late as they fell 78-68.  Sherwood Brown scored 24 while Brett Comer added 12 points, six rebounds, and 10 assists.  Florida Gulf Coast became the 7th 15-seed to beat a 2-seed and the 3rd in the last two years.  Let's not forget that they had a win over another 2-seed, Miami FL, earlier this year.  As for Georgetown they end their season on another disappointing loss.  This is the 4th straight year they have been ousted by a double-digit seed in the tournament.  Big East player of the year, Otto Porter Jr., had a rough night.  Although he had 13 points and 11 boards, he was only 5-17 from the field.

LaSalle holds on late against Kansas State

The First Four play-in has only been around three years, but each year we've seen one of those teams win multiple games.  In 2011 it was VCU, 2012 South Florida, and this year LaSalle.  This was definitely a tale of two halves for the Explorers.  In the first they jumped out to an 18 point lead at the half 44-26 hitting 18 of 31 shots.  Then in the second half Kansas State finally decided to show up.  The Wildcats steadily cut into the deficit and took their first lead of the game with 7:05 left, 57-56.  From that point on, LaSalle did not make a shot (3-18 in the 2nd half) and K-State made one layup.  However, Jerrell Wright made 7-8 free throws including two with 30 seconds left to give the Explorers the lead back as they closed it out 63-61.  Wright was the leading scorer with 21 as he went 6-6 from the floor and 9-10 from the line.  LaSalle is reminiscent of the 2011 VCU team that made the Final Four as they play a four guard lineup and like to get up and down the court.

Ole Miss continues the 12-seed special

When filling out your bracket everybody knows to pick at least one 12-seed to beat a 5-seed.  For the first time ever three 12-seeds were able to pull off the upset as Ole Miss knocked out Wisconsin 57-46.  All the talk before the game was if Wisconsin can stop Marshall Henderson, and his mouth.  They stopped him for the most of the game as he started 1-13, 0-6 from distance.  But once he hit his first 3-pointer, with just under 12 minutes to play, it brought the Rebels within three, 36-33, and started a 17-5 run for Ole Miss that gave them a 47-41 lead and ended up winning 57-46.  Henderson finished 6-21 from the field with 19 points, but it was the work of their big men, Murphy Holloway and Reginald Bucker, that kept the Rebels in the game early when Marshall was off.  They combined for 19 points, 21 rebounds and six blocks.  If you ask me, this team could be a lot better if Henderson would defer more to his rocks inside.  Coming into the tournament the Badgers weakness is going in scoring droughts and they were held to their worst shooting performance of the year going 15-59 (25.4%) from the floor and 7-30 (23.3%) from deep.  Up next for the Rebels are the previously mentioned LaSalle Explorers in a 12 vs 13 matchup.  Who had that one in their bracket?

Kansas has a bracket busting scare

The Kansas Jayhawks must not have paid much attention to Gonzaga's first game as they too took their 16-seed opponent lightly and it almost bit them.  The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, with one of the best mascots in college, actually held the lead at halftime 31-30.  They were able to limit turnovers (9 for the game) and slow the pace down, but had no answer for Kansas center Jeff Withey.  The Hilltoppers two most efficient players tonight, George Fant (10 points) and Aleksejs Rostov (11 points), couldn't stay on the court because Withey (17 point, 7 blocks) had them in foul trouble all game.  WKU struggled shooting the ball as well, 32% from the field and 3-20 from downtown, which is not what you need when trying to pull off a monumental upset.  Kansas needs to shake this off and get back on track because they play a rejuvenated North Carolina team next.  Roy Williams, meet Kansas.  Do you guys know each other?

Iowa State dismantles Notre Dame

Lower seeded teams that can do damage in the tournament are ones that take and can make a lot of 3's, and that's what Iowa State does.  The Cyclones took and made more 3-pointers than any other team in the country.  Tonight though it was their post players, Georges Niang and Melvin Ejim, who led the way with 19 and 17 points respectively.  ISU was able to score consistently inside as Notre Dame showed almost no resistance.  They were also able to neutralize one of the best rebounders in the country, Jack Cooley, as he could only grab five boards.  The fact that this Cyclone team was able to win going away playing a style of basketball they are not known for (they still hit nine 3's) shows that this team should not be overlooked by Ohio State.  Especially in the unpredictable West Region, where we've seen five upsets in the second round.



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Friday, March 22, 2013

NCAA Tournament Day 1 Recap

Harvard gets first tournament win in school history

For those of you who didn't stay up until midnight you might have awoken up to your bracket being busted.  Harvard, a 14-seed, picked up their first ever NCAA tournament victory over 3-seed New Mexico 68-62.  Apparently, they not only have brilliant minds attending their school but ball players as well.  The Crimson was able to slow down the pace of the game and hit key 3-pointers, led by Laurent Rivard who went 5-9 from deep with 17 points.  New Mexico is known for its offensive struggles and it showed as Mountain West player of the year Kendall Williams went 1-6 from the floor for eight points.  The Lobos were discussed as a possible Final Four candidate but that's out the window now that Harvard knocked them out.

Marquette storms back over Davidson

3-seed Marquette looked to be the first casualty in this years tournament at the hands of 14-seed Davidson.  The Wildcats were up pretty much the entire game and held a 54-48 lead with 1:10 to play.  The Golden Eagles proceeded to hit three 3s to pull within one, 58-57, with 10 seconds left.  After the inbound, Davidson tried to play keep away while running the clock and ended up turning the ball over.  Marquette's Vander Blue then hits a driving layup with 1 second to spare as the 3-seed is able to survive.  Davidson had this game wrapped up if they would have just held onto the ball and got fouled.  They are the best free throw shooting in the country at 79.5% but only managed 14-22 for the game including a crucial miss in the last minute.  Marquette came up big though making their last three 3s after starting 1-12.  And ask St. John's if Blue's shot looked familiar.  They now move on to play Butler.

Southern pushes Gonzaga to the brink

Sooner (hopefully) or later we will see a 16-seed pull off the ultimate upset over a 1-seed.  Southern University, the champions of the SWAC, was in it all the way down to the wire against top seeded Gonzaga.  The Jaguars were only down three at the half and even tied the game at 56 on a Derrick Beltran jumper with 3:47 left.  The very next play, the Bulldogs Gary Bell Jr. hit a big 3 to take back the lead.  After two Beltran free throws, this time it was Kevin Pangos with an even bigger 3 to push the Zags lead to four with just under two minutes to play.  Southern would fail to score the rest of the game and lose 64-58.  The 6-point win in the closest in a 1 vs 16 game since 1990 when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT.  Most people weren't sold on Gonzaga being a top seed and this effort did nothing to silence their critics.

Oregon pulls off the first upset and looked good doing it

Oregon was not given much credit for winning the Pac-12 tournament as they received a 12-seed and faced 5-seed Oklahoma State.  The Ducks must have took offense to this because they jumped out to a 37-26 lead at halftime.  They balanced scoring as usual, with four guys in double figures led by Damyean Dotson with 17.  But it was Arsalan Kazemi who had 11 points and 17 rebounds that stood out for Oregon.  They also played great defense holding Marcus Smart and the Cowboys to only 40% from the field.  They play Saint Louis on Saturday which will be a tough test but the Ducks seem to have a chip on their shoulder so look for this to be a close one.

Cal gives payback to UNLV

Oregon isn't the only Pac-12 team that can pull off the famous 5-12 upset.  The Cal Bears took out UNLV, marking the first time two teams from the same conference won as 12-seeds.  This was a rematch from December, a game UNLV won 76-75, and again it came down to the last minute.  The Bears were led by Pac-12 POY Allen Crabbe who had 19 points and nine boards but it was reserve big man Robert Thurman who scored eight straight for Cal on four dunks.  The Bears will now try to use their "home court advantage" (they are player in San Jose) against Syracuse.

Louisville showed they are ready to make a run

The #1 team overall is Louisville and they did not want to leave any doubt in their game as they cruised to a 79-48 victory over 16-seed North Carolina A&T.  The pressure D that made the Cardinals the best defensive team in the country was in full force as they set a NCAA tournament record with 20 team steals.  Yes, 20, including eight by Russ Smith who also scored 23 points.  Louisville is said to have the hardest bracket, but also has the popular vote to win the title.  It's so easy to overlook teams (see Gonzaga) but with handling business they way they did, look for the Cards to be focused no matter who is their opponent.

VCU and Syracuse run opponents out of the gym

The VCU Rams are not sneaking up on anybody like they did back in 2011, but apparently the Akron Zips didn't get the memo.  VCU had an impressive showing with an 88-42 win.  Now I understand that Akron didn't have their starting point guard Alex Abreu (6 apg) but they were still MAC regular season and tournament champs.  Not having a PG is huge against a high pressure team like VCU, but the Rams were on point offensively as well.  They shot 54% from the field and 8-16 from downtown, 6-11 from Troy Daniels who scored 23.  That is exactly what VCU had going for them when they made their Final Four run in 2011, they pressed the heck out of you and were on fire from 3.  Michigan is up next, who has Trey Burke (the best assist/turnover ratio in the country), so it will be interesting to see how he handles the press.

Syracuse was another team that impressed as they crushed Montana 81-34.  Cuse was paced by Brandon Triche on offense as he put in 20.  But it was Jim Boeheim's patent 2-3 defense that shut down Montana from the outside as they only hit 4-31 (13%) from distance.  The Orange held the Grizzlies to 20% shooting overall and nobody on the team had more than five points.  Their next game against Cal will basically be a road game but if Syracuse can continue to lock up on D and be efficient on the offensive end this team is dangerous.



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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

South Region Breakdown

Down in the South region the Big 12 champ Kansas sits at the 1-seed.  The Jayhawks won a lot of this year but had a three game slide which included the biggest upset of the year, a loss at TCU.  They seem to be on track after winning their conference tournament by an average of 19.6 points a game.  Georgetown was one of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch and Otto Porter Jr. started making his case for national POY.  The Florida Gators might be the team to keep your eye on though as they rank #1 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings.  As for Michigan, there's a lot of people that think this team is overrated, like Yahoo! Sports who consider the Wolverines to be the biggest of their bracket lames.

Top Seeds
1. Kansas
2. Georgetown
3. Florida
4. Michigan

Sleepers
Is VCU still considered a sleeper? No? OK, then Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are a tough team to figure out.  They started the year 15-1 but finished 5-11.  They've beaten the likes of Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Memphis.  The biggest problem they have is inconsistent scoring.  If Andre and Austin Hollins can shoot better than their 40% averages this team has a chance to win a few games.  They play good defense and Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams like to pound the glass.

First Round Upset Alerts
4 Michigan vs 13 South Dakota State - This seems to be eerily similar to last years NCAA tournament for Michigan.  Ranked a 4-seed and going up against a team with a star guard.  Last time it was Ohio and D.J. Cooper (the only player ever with 2,000 points, 900 assists, 500 rebounds and 300 steals) who upset the Wolverines, this year Nate Wolters and South Dakota State will get their shot.  And shoot is what Wolters will do as he pours in 22.7 a game.  Michigan has struggled on defense all year, but the good thing for them is they are basically playing a home game at the Palace of Auburn Hills.  Oh yeah, and they have Trey Burke.

6 UCLA vs 11 Minnesota - The clear pick for an upset, not only by my standards but Las Vegas as well.  The sportsbooks opened this game with Minnesota as a 2.5 point favorite.  The 11 favored over the 6?  When you see things like that, it usually means the professional handicappers know something.  The biggest reason is UCLA's second leading scorer, Jordan Adams, suffered a broken foot in the Pac-12 tournament.  Look for the Gophers to take this game.

Possible Matchups
Kansas vs North Carolina - A second round matchup that looks a like a championship game.  Roy Williams going up against his old team Kansas for the third time.  So far the Jayhawks and Bill Self has gotten the best of Roy's Heels in the first two showdowns.  Even though they are an 8-seed UNC still has some quality players in James Michael McAdoo and Reggie Bullock.  But they will have a hard time containing Ben McLemore on the perimeter (16.4 ppg) and Jeff Withey inside (8.4 rpg, 3.8 bpg).

Georgetown vs Florida - This game was scheduled for the season opener on a ship but was called at halftime.  Florida is a team that scores and plays defense, but played in the SEC, the worst of the power 6 conferences.  All 26 of their wins were by double-digits, which is a good and bad thing.  Good for obvious reasons, bad because that means when this team plays close games they can't seem to finish (see the Arizona game).  Georgetown fell short to Indiana in OT in November and lost only one more game against a ranked team the rest of the year, in the Big East semis to Syracuse in OT.  The winner of this game will most likely represent the South in Atlanta and it should be a doosy.

My Pick
This is tough but...Georgetown.  Kansas will have a difficult time finding points against the Hoyas and Withey will get lost trying to defend their Princeton style offense.  As for Florida, it's for the sole reason of the Gators not being able to win close games.  At some point in the tournament every team is faced with adversity and need to either come back or hold on late in games.  Florida is great when they blow teams out but in crunch time they wilt.  Otto Porter on the other hand seems to thrive in those situations and will be the difference maker as Florida has nobody that can matchup with the Big East player of the year.



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East Region Breakdown

The Indiana Hoosiers are the top seed in the South region, the only 1-seed to not win their conference tournament.  IU was the preseason #1 and spent the most time atop the rankings.  The ACC champ Miami Hurricanes are a team that's proven itself throughout the season and should be expected to make some noise.  But other than that there isn't too much Indiana should fear.  Syracuse and Marquette are decent but not on the level of the top two seeds.  Of course we always have to keep an eye on everybody's favorite Cinderella, Butler, as Brad Stevens knows how to coach in March. 

Top Seeds
1. Indiana
2. Miami FL
3. Marquette
4. Syracuse

Sleepers
This region isn't very deep and picking a 5-seed doesn't really count as a sleeper but UNLV might surprise people.  When you have a player like freshman Anthony Bennett, who averages 16.2 points and 8 boards, your team can make a run.  Add senior point guard Anthony Marshall (10 ppg, 4 rpg, 6 apg) to the mix and that's a recipe for success in March.

First Round Upset Alerts
5 UNLV vs 12 California - So I mention a sleeper, then talk about them being upset in the first round.  This is a rematch of a game UNLV won 76-75 in Berkeley.  But aren't teams with higher seeds supposed to be playing closer to home?  Then how is this game being played in San Jose?  I understand that's not too far from Las Vegas either but that smells like some home cooking for Cal.  Both teams have NBA talent in the aforementioned Bennett for the Rebels and Alan Crabbe for the Bears.  Bennett will be a high lottery pick if he comes out this year.  Crabbe was the Pac-12 player of the year and puts up 18.7 points and 6 rebounds.

6 Butler vs 11 Bucknell - Yes, the upset specialists need to worry about getting upset.  The main reason is the Bison's Mike Muscala.  A 6'11 NBA ready center that posts 19 points and 11 rebounds a game.  Butler has huge wins over Indiana and Gonzaga this year but when going up against a player like Muscala if you don't come to play you'll be going home early.

7 Illinois vs 10 Colorado - Illinois started the season fast at 12-0 with wins over Butler and Gonzaga but had a hard time in the Big Ten only going 8-10 in conference play.  Brandon Paul can light it up but they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 41%.  Colorado isn't the best shooting team either (43%) but the combination of Spencer Dinwiddie (15.6 ppg) and Andre Roberson (11 ppg, 11 rpg) will be tough for the Illini to handle.  This could be one of the ugliest games of the first round if nobody is hitting their shots.

Possible Matchups 
Indiana vs Butler - Who wouldn't want to see this game again after the two played an overtime thriller back on December 15th that Butler won 88-86.  That was Indiana's first loss of the year and this would be great for the state of Indiana to start a new rivalry between these teams.

Miami FL vs Syracuse - Miami just took control of ACC basketball and Syracuse will be joining the conference next year.  What better way to welcome the Orange to the league than by meeting for a Final Four bid.

My Pick
It's either Indiana or Miami and it would be a great game.  Both teams matchup well in size while the Hoosiers are strong on offense and the Canes are strong on defense.  The difference is that Indiana has two national player of the year candidates in Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller.  I see Oladipo, the best all-around player in the country, leading this team to Atlanta and a Final Four birth.



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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Does Winning Your Conference Tournament Help Your NCAA Chances?

Every conference has one (except the Ivy League) and whoever wins gets a free ticket to the national tournament (except the Great West).  I'm talking about conference tournaments.  In an earlier posting I shared my excitement for championship week.  But come bracket time, I never shared that excitement with picking teams that won their conference tournament to win the national tournament.  My reasoning was that I felt it's very difficult for a team, even the best in the country, to show up roughly ten straight games in win or go home situations and come out the victor.  Especially when going up against the top competition in the nation.  Boy was I wrong, no wonder why I can never win a bracket challenge.

Since some of the power conferences didn't have tournaments prior to 1998 (Big 12 1997, Big Ten 1998, Pac-12 2002) so I went back 15 years.  But the numbers are staggering.  Of teams that won their conference tournament 26 of 60 (43%) were Final Four teams, 16 of 30 (53%) made the Finals, and 10 of 15 (67%) were National Champions.

To some it seems obvious, partly because only two (2011 UConn and 2006 Florida) were not a 1-seed.  But there are only six teams that win a title in power conferences (no team outside power six has won national title), which means there are far more quality teams that don't.  You hear it every year from big time coaches like Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski, they are almost happy for losing early in the conference tourney because it gives their team a chance to rest.  But we know now that's actually a bad thing.  How much rest do their teams need anyway?  We have to remember these are 19-21 year olds, not 30 year old season vets with bad knees.  So the rest thing really shouldn't be much of a factor.

This is just some food for thought while you are filling out the all important bracket.  Before you get too high on certain teams here's a list of top 4-seed teams that did not bring home a conference tournament championship

Indiana, Duke, Georgetown, Florida, Michigan State, Marquette, Michigan, Kansas State, Syracuse

Here's a list of teams that won a title to keep an eye on

Louisville (Big East), Kansas (Big 12), Gonzaga (West Coast), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami FL (ACC), New Mexico (Mountain West), Saint Louis (A-10), Ole Miss (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12)

And, here's the list of Final Four teams from the last 15 yeaers.

Teams in parenthesis won their conference tournament. Underlined teams won championship. Bold teams were in the finals.


2012 – Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, (Louisville)
2011 – (UConn), (Butler), (Kentucky), VCU
2010 – (Duke), (Butler), (West Virginia), Michigan State
2009 – UNC, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova
2008 – (Kansas), Memphis, (UNC), (UCLA)
2007 – (Florida), (Ohio State), (Georgetown), UCLA
2006 – (Florida), (UCLA), LSU, George Mason
2005 – UNC, (Illinois), Louisville, Michigan State
2004 – (UConn), Georgia Tech, Duke, (Oklahoma State)
2003 – Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Marquette
2002 – Maryland, Indiana, Kansas, (Oklahoma)
2001 – (Duke), Arizona, Michigan State, Maryland
2000 – (Michigan State), Florida, UNC, Wisconsin
1999 – (UConn), (Duke), (Michigan State), Ohio State
1998 – (Kentucky), Utah, (UNC), Stanford

National Champions – 10 of 15
Finals appearances – 16 of 30
Final Four appearances – 26 of 60



 

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