It all comes down to this. Two teams, one title. For Louisville's Rick Pitino it would be his second, but Michigan's John Beilein is still looking for his first. These teams have had opposing styles all year as Louisville has the #1 defense and Michigan has the #1 offense in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. But both teams have picked it up on the other side of the ball in the tournament. The Cardinals have upped their points per game to 79 while the Wolverines have kept four of their five opponents under 60. To get to the title game both needed their benches to provide huge lifts when the starters were faltering. For Louisville it was Luke Hancock, who seemed to do everything right when Russ Smith and Peyton Siva couldn't find driving lanes. Nik Stauskas had his worst shooting performance of the year but Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht hit timely 3-pointers to help the Wolverines. Both squads will again need a total team if they want to go home with a championship.
Player To Watch
Louisville - Peyton Siva doesn't put up the best numbers but he is just as important to this team as Russ Smith. Siva is the engine that makes this machine go. Not only does he run the offense but spearheads their pressure defense. Siva will not be able to match Burke in the scoring column but he can definitely make it harder for the POY to get his own buckets. Siva needs to bring the pressure early and often on Burke to get the ball out of his hands. Michigan struggles when Burke is not able to at least set up the offense and Siva will be the catalyst to stop that. Also, Siva went 1-9 against Wichita State with only three assists and if Louisville wants a title they need their point guard to be closer to his 10 points, six assists average.
Michigan - Trey Burke is raking in all the post season awards and will have to be on top of his game to take the one he covets most, the National Championship. Against Syracuse's long 2-3 zone, Burke had his worst game of the year going 1-8 with seven points and four assists. To get a title Michigan can't have another performance like that or the Wolverines will be in trouble. But more than scoring, Burke needs to take care of the ball because turnovers lead to points when going up against Louisville. He's done a great job all year as he's posted the best assist/turnover ratio in the country but he will now be going up against the best defense in the nation. When Michigan faced a similar pressure team in VCU in the round of 32 the Wolverines had 12 turnovers, seven from Burke alone.
Key Matchup
Louisville pressure vs Michigan ball handling. These are the two strengths of each team. Louisville is second in the nation in steals and Michigan first in turnovers per game. The Cardinals defense has forced an average of 15.4 TOs and created 11.2 steals in five games in the tournament. Not only do they take the ball from you but most likely they will score off those turnovers. Michigan on the other hand only averages 9.4 giveaways a game and Burke is as good they get when it comes to protecting the ball. Can Siva and Smith force Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. into bad decisions or will the latter minimize mistakes and keep the game in their control?
Prediction
In a battle of strength vs strength it usually come down to pace of play because most defensive teams like to slow it down (Syracuse) whereas offensive teams like to get it and go. But both teams like to run. So pay attention to which teams "weakness" stands out. Can Louisville score on the much improved Michigan defense or will the Wolverines shut down the Cardinals? Let's not forget in the Big Ten tournament Michigan gave up 51 points in the second half to a Wisconsin team that failed to score more than 46 in its last two losses of the year. In the tournament, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of nine points in the second half. The Cardinals offense comes and goes with Russ Smith as he's scored over 20 in every game of the tourney but if he doesn't get help from the likes of Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Hancock, this team will have a hard time keeping up with Michigan. The one thing Michigan has that they didn't during the regular season is the amazing play of Mitch McGary. Averaging 16 ppg and 11.6 rpg in the tournament, he has become the inside presence Michigan has been looking for all year to compliment its guard play. Gorgui Dieng will have his hands full down low with the bigger and stronger McGary. Also, I feel like Michigan won't wilt under the pressure the Cardinals bring. Look at how well Wichita State State looked when they didn't turn the ball over. For 33 minutes they had four TOs and 12 point lead, then proceeded to give the ball away seven times in the last seven minutes and lose the game. It's been a long time coming for Michigan. The Fab Five in 1993 was the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. Since then they've had to deal with NCAA sanctions, bad coaches and high profile players not wanting to come to a school with a lot of baggage. One of the youngest teams in the country will do what the Fab Five couldn't and cut down the nets. Michigan will earn it's second National Championship in a hard fought game 68-64.
Showing posts with label Russ Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russ Smith. Show all posts
Monday, April 8, 2013
Thursday, April 4, 2013
What To Watch: Louisville Cardinals vs Wichita State Shockers
The first game in the Final Four is a matchup between a team most picked to win a championship against a team some picked to lose in the first round. Louisville, the #1 overall seed, is here by no surprise as they are the only team left to win their conference tournament and have rode that momentum in the Big Dance. The also have a little extra motivation after the terrible injury suffered by backup point guard Kevin Ware against Duke. The Cardinals will sport "Win It For Kevin" t-shirts during warmups. The Wichita State Shockers on the other hand are this years Cinderella, becoming the 5th team seeded 9th or lower to reach the Final Four. However, none of those previous teams made it to the championship game. If the Shockers hope to do that they will have to slow down a team nobody has been able to in the Cardinals last 14 games.
How They Got Here
Louisville - North Carolina A&T 79-48, Colorado State 82-56, Oregon 77-69, Duke 85-63.
The Cardinals have ran through every opponent they've faced and have lived up to their #1 overall seed. The nine point win over Oregon was the slimmest margin but it was not that close.
Wichita State - Pittsburgh 73-55, Gonzaga 76-70, LaSalle 72-58, Ohio State 70-66.
The Shockers upset the #1 and #2 seeds in their region to reach the Final Four but even won those games in impressive fashion. They led the entire first half against 1-seed Gonzaga before needing to comeback from seven down with less than six minutes to play. Against Ohio State they led for all but 42 seconds when OSU was up 9-7 early.
Player To Watch
Russ Smith is the hottest player in the tournament averaging 26 a game on 54% shooting and scoring in ever way. In transition, jumpers, 3s, and from the line. Smith is a catalyst on defense as well with over two steals a game and a season high eight against UNC A&T in the round of 64. Basically, Smith is the barometer for how Louisville will play as he's their leader on both ends of the court.
Key Matchup
Malcolm Armstead held his own going up against Aaron Craft, the best on-ball defender in the country, only turning the ball over three times. Armstead now gets to face even more pressure from the Louisville press, spear headed by Smith and Peyton Siva, that has forced over 60 turnovers in four games. Being able to get the Shockers into their offense is going to be key to them staying in the game. Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall will only be able to do damage if Armstead can get them the ball. He's made a name for himself in the tournament as a solid PG but if he has trouble getting passed half court it's going to be a long night for the senior.
Prediction
Louisville was already going to be a tough out for any team in the tournament but now are on a mission playing for Kevin Ware. They are playing the best basketball of anybody left and want to bring a championship to their fallen teammate. Wichita State has made a great run but I don't think they can handle what Smith and Siva will bring in terms of pressure and Gorgui Dieng will negate anything Early tries to do inside. The Cardinals defense has been suffocating teams and Wichita State has seen nothing like them. They will treat Cinderella poorly and send her home from the tournament.
Game: Louisville
Bet: Louisville -9.5
How They Got Here
Louisville - North Carolina A&T 79-48, Colorado State 82-56, Oregon 77-69, Duke 85-63.
The Cardinals have ran through every opponent they've faced and have lived up to their #1 overall seed. The nine point win over Oregon was the slimmest margin but it was not that close.
Wichita State - Pittsburgh 73-55, Gonzaga 76-70, LaSalle 72-58, Ohio State 70-66.
The Shockers upset the #1 and #2 seeds in their region to reach the Final Four but even won those games in impressive fashion. They led the entire first half against 1-seed Gonzaga before needing to comeback from seven down with less than six minutes to play. Against Ohio State they led for all but 42 seconds when OSU was up 9-7 early.
Player To Watch
Russ Smith is the hottest player in the tournament averaging 26 a game on 54% shooting and scoring in ever way. In transition, jumpers, 3s, and from the line. Smith is a catalyst on defense as well with over two steals a game and a season high eight against UNC A&T in the round of 64. Basically, Smith is the barometer for how Louisville will play as he's their leader on both ends of the court.
Key Matchup
Malcolm Armstead held his own going up against Aaron Craft, the best on-ball defender in the country, only turning the ball over three times. Armstead now gets to face even more pressure from the Louisville press, spear headed by Smith and Peyton Siva, that has forced over 60 turnovers in four games. Being able to get the Shockers into their offense is going to be key to them staying in the game. Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall will only be able to do damage if Armstead can get them the ball. He's made a name for himself in the tournament as a solid PG but if he has trouble getting passed half court it's going to be a long night for the senior.
Prediction
Louisville was already going to be a tough out for any team in the tournament but now are on a mission playing for Kevin Ware. They are playing the best basketball of anybody left and want to bring a championship to their fallen teammate. Wichita State has made a great run but I don't think they can handle what Smith and Siva will bring in terms of pressure and Gorgui Dieng will negate anything Early tries to do inside. The Cardinals defense has been suffocating teams and Wichita State has seen nothing like them. They will treat Cinderella poorly and send her home from the tournament.
Game: Louisville
Bet: Louisville -9.5
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