The national championship game had the potential to be a classic matchup between the best offensive and defensive teams in the country, and it didn't disappoint. The Louisville Cardinals were able to survive a first half push by Michigan, and an unlikely hero, to win the schools third title and coach Rick Pitino's second in an 82-76 victory. Also, Pitino became the first coach ever to win a national championship at two different schools, his other was with Kentucky in 1996.
The big question heading into the game was how will Michigan handle the relentless pressure from Louisville. Right from the jump Trey Burke was out to show why he was the consensus Player of the Year. Burke shook off any remaining rust from his 1-8 night against Syracuse to hit his first three shots and score Michigan's first seven points, matching his total in the Final Four game. The opening five minutes were fast and furious as both teams were trying to run and when the TV timeout came it was almost as everybody watching needed to catch their breath.
Unfortunately for Burke, he was called for hist second foul early in the first half on a questionable call, one of many for both teams. But luckily for Michigan their freshman backup point guard, Spike Albrecht, who averaged 1.8 points a game went off for a career high 17 points on four 3-pointers. He started his 3 barrage while Burke was still in the game and continued once he had left. At one point all five freshmen were on the court together and brought Michigan fans to memories of the Fab Five, the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. With Burke on the bench, Michigan was able to build a 12 point lead, 35-23, with about three minutes left in the half.
For 17 minutes of the first half Louisville struggled to get anything going on offense as Michigan wasn't turning the ball over and the best scorer in the tournament, Russ Smith, couldn't make a shot. Just like in the Wichita State game, it was Luke Hancock that brought the Cardinals back in the blink of an eye. He matched Albrecht with hitting four straight 3s of his own in a two minute stretch before the half scoring 14 straight for Louisville. The Cardinals finally took the lead with a Montrezl Harrell lob from Peyton Siva. Next, Glenn Robinson III hit two free throws and Michigan had a 38-37 edge after the most entertaining half in the entire tournament. Amazing plays by bench players and huge swings by both teams only left us wanting more.
The second half starts and for Louisville, Russ Smith (who finished with 9 points on 3-16 shooting) is on the bench. This is a guy that had at least 21 in every game of the tournament, but Pitino stayed with the hot hand of Hancock. Burke was back in the lineup though and picked up right where he left off hitting a deep 3 early. But it was Siva and Chane Behanan that started to control the paint and in turn the game.
Michigan had no answer for Siva's penetration and playmaking ability in the second half. The senior guard was getting to the rim at will scoring 14 or his 18 points in the latter half of the game also adding six boards, five assists, and four steals. As for Behanan, he became a man amongst boys in the post scoring 11 of his 15 points and grabbing 11 of his 12 boards (including all seven of his offensive rebounds) in the second half. Gorgui Dieng also decided to show up after a MIA performance in the Final Four game where he missed his only field goal attempt. Dieng was not only a defensive and rebounding presence (three blocks and eight rebounds, five offensive) but a facilitator as well leading the Cardinals with six assists.
Even after all of this, Michigan was still hanging around within striking distance. But a turning point in the game was with just over five minutes to go and Louisville up 67-64. Albrecht misses a layup which turns into a break for Siva and Burke measures him up for one of the biggest blocks/plays of the tournament but is called for a foul. It could have been a huge momentum shift in Michigan's favor but instead it led to Louisville going on a run for their biggest lead of the game, 76-66. If no foul is called there and Michigan goes on to win a title, that play would be just as big as the 3-pointer he hit to tie the game against Kansas.
A lot of talk during the game was about how bad the refs were and for good reason because they missed a lot of calls for both teams. Less than two minutes into the game they missed an obvious goal tend that was called a block by Dieng on Tim Hardaway Jr. Two fouls on Burke were very questionable, including his second that sat him the rest of the first half on a Hancock ball fake and the aforementioned block on Siva. Late in the game Mitch McGary clearly kicked the ball and no whistle blew. Behanan was getting absolutely mugged in the paint while still getting offensive put-backs. And every time Burke or Siva drove the lane they ended up on their back but rarely was a call made. Both teams have serious complaints and it's a shame that in a game of such high importance the refs had as much influence as they did.
In the end the better team won as Michigan just wasn't able to get rebounds or stop penetration in the second half. Burke tried to do everything he could to keep his team in it but wasn't getting enough help as Louisville proved to have too many weapons on offense. The Final Four Most Outstanding Player went to Luke Hancock who put in 22 points with 5-5 from downtown. Hancock became the first non-starter to win the award. It was announced at halftime that Burke won the Naismith Award, sweeping all of the Player of the Year awards. He finished with 24 points, but who knows how this game would have played out if he didn't get into early foul trouble. Tournament standout, Mitch McGary, had a very pedestrian showing after putting up 16 ppg and 11 rpg coming into the title game. He also was suffering from foul trouble and only managed six points and six rebounds. Louisville was looked at as the best team in the country coming into the tournament and showed it, running through opponents early and coming back in the later round. After the horrific injury to Kevin Ware you might have thought this was going to be a team of destiny. The Cardinals and coach Pitino, along with Ware, cut down the nets to cap off an amazing game, tournament and year of college basketball.
Showing posts with label Trey Burke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trey Burke. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Monday, April 8, 2013
What To Watch: Michigan Wolverines vs Louisville Cardinals
It all comes down to this. Two teams, one title. For Louisville's Rick Pitino it would be his second, but Michigan's John Beilein is still looking for his first. These teams have had opposing styles all year as Louisville has the #1 defense and Michigan has the #1 offense in Ken Pomeroy's rankings. But both teams have picked it up on the other side of the ball in the tournament. The Cardinals have upped their points per game to 79 while the Wolverines have kept four of their five opponents under 60. To get to the title game both needed their benches to provide huge lifts when the starters were faltering. For Louisville it was Luke Hancock, who seemed to do everything right when Russ Smith and Peyton Siva couldn't find driving lanes. Nik Stauskas had his worst shooting performance of the year but Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht hit timely 3-pointers to help the Wolverines. Both squads will again need a total team if they want to go home with a championship.
Player To Watch
Louisville - Peyton Siva doesn't put up the best numbers but he is just as important to this team as Russ Smith. Siva is the engine that makes this machine go. Not only does he run the offense but spearheads their pressure defense. Siva will not be able to match Burke in the scoring column but he can definitely make it harder for the POY to get his own buckets. Siva needs to bring the pressure early and often on Burke to get the ball out of his hands. Michigan struggles when Burke is not able to at least set up the offense and Siva will be the catalyst to stop that. Also, Siva went 1-9 against Wichita State with only three assists and if Louisville wants a title they need their point guard to be closer to his 10 points, six assists average.
Michigan - Trey Burke is raking in all the post season awards and will have to be on top of his game to take the one he covets most, the National Championship. Against Syracuse's long 2-3 zone, Burke had his worst game of the year going 1-8 with seven points and four assists. To get a title Michigan can't have another performance like that or the Wolverines will be in trouble. But more than scoring, Burke needs to take care of the ball because turnovers lead to points when going up against Louisville. He's done a great job all year as he's posted the best assist/turnover ratio in the country but he will now be going up against the best defense in the nation. When Michigan faced a similar pressure team in VCU in the round of 32 the Wolverines had 12 turnovers, seven from Burke alone.
Key Matchup
Louisville pressure vs Michigan ball handling. These are the two strengths of each team. Louisville is second in the nation in steals and Michigan first in turnovers per game. The Cardinals defense has forced an average of 15.4 TOs and created 11.2 steals in five games in the tournament. Not only do they take the ball from you but most likely they will score off those turnovers. Michigan on the other hand only averages 9.4 giveaways a game and Burke is as good they get when it comes to protecting the ball. Can Siva and Smith force Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. into bad decisions or will the latter minimize mistakes and keep the game in their control?
Prediction
In a battle of strength vs strength it usually come down to pace of play because most defensive teams like to slow it down (Syracuse) whereas offensive teams like to get it and go. But both teams like to run. So pay attention to which teams "weakness" stands out. Can Louisville score on the much improved Michigan defense or will the Wolverines shut down the Cardinals? Let's not forget in the Big Ten tournament Michigan gave up 51 points in the second half to a Wisconsin team that failed to score more than 46 in its last two losses of the year. In the tournament, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of nine points in the second half. The Cardinals offense comes and goes with Russ Smith as he's scored over 20 in every game of the tourney but if he doesn't get help from the likes of Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Hancock, this team will have a hard time keeping up with Michigan. The one thing Michigan has that they didn't during the regular season is the amazing play of Mitch McGary. Averaging 16 ppg and 11.6 rpg in the tournament, he has become the inside presence Michigan has been looking for all year to compliment its guard play. Gorgui Dieng will have his hands full down low with the bigger and stronger McGary. Also, I feel like Michigan won't wilt under the pressure the Cardinals bring. Look at how well Wichita State State looked when they didn't turn the ball over. For 33 minutes they had four TOs and 12 point lead, then proceeded to give the ball away seven times in the last seven minutes and lose the game. It's been a long time coming for Michigan. The Fab Five in 1993 was the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. Since then they've had to deal with NCAA sanctions, bad coaches and high profile players not wanting to come to a school with a lot of baggage. One of the youngest teams in the country will do what the Fab Five couldn't and cut down the nets. Michigan will earn it's second National Championship in a hard fought game 68-64.
Player To Watch
Louisville - Peyton Siva doesn't put up the best numbers but he is just as important to this team as Russ Smith. Siva is the engine that makes this machine go. Not only does he run the offense but spearheads their pressure defense. Siva will not be able to match Burke in the scoring column but he can definitely make it harder for the POY to get his own buckets. Siva needs to bring the pressure early and often on Burke to get the ball out of his hands. Michigan struggles when Burke is not able to at least set up the offense and Siva will be the catalyst to stop that. Also, Siva went 1-9 against Wichita State with only three assists and if Louisville wants a title they need their point guard to be closer to his 10 points, six assists average.
Michigan - Trey Burke is raking in all the post season awards and will have to be on top of his game to take the one he covets most, the National Championship. Against Syracuse's long 2-3 zone, Burke had his worst game of the year going 1-8 with seven points and four assists. To get a title Michigan can't have another performance like that or the Wolverines will be in trouble. But more than scoring, Burke needs to take care of the ball because turnovers lead to points when going up against Louisville. He's done a great job all year as he's posted the best assist/turnover ratio in the country but he will now be going up against the best defense in the nation. When Michigan faced a similar pressure team in VCU in the round of 32 the Wolverines had 12 turnovers, seven from Burke alone.
Key Matchup
Louisville pressure vs Michigan ball handling. These are the two strengths of each team. Louisville is second in the nation in steals and Michigan first in turnovers per game. The Cardinals defense has forced an average of 15.4 TOs and created 11.2 steals in five games in the tournament. Not only do they take the ball from you but most likely they will score off those turnovers. Michigan on the other hand only averages 9.4 giveaways a game and Burke is as good they get when it comes to protecting the ball. Can Siva and Smith force Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. into bad decisions or will the latter minimize mistakes and keep the game in their control?
Prediction
In a battle of strength vs strength it usually come down to pace of play because most defensive teams like to slow it down (Syracuse) whereas offensive teams like to get it and go. But both teams like to run. So pay attention to which teams "weakness" stands out. Can Louisville score on the much improved Michigan defense or will the Wolverines shut down the Cardinals? Let's not forget in the Big Ten tournament Michigan gave up 51 points in the second half to a Wisconsin team that failed to score more than 46 in its last two losses of the year. In the tournament, Louisville has outscored opponents by an average of nine points in the second half. The Cardinals offense comes and goes with Russ Smith as he's scored over 20 in every game of the tourney but if he doesn't get help from the likes of Siva, Gorgui Dieng and Hancock, this team will have a hard time keeping up with Michigan. The one thing Michigan has that they didn't during the regular season is the amazing play of Mitch McGary. Averaging 16 ppg and 11.6 rpg in the tournament, he has become the inside presence Michigan has been looking for all year to compliment its guard play. Gorgui Dieng will have his hands full down low with the bigger and stronger McGary. Also, I feel like Michigan won't wilt under the pressure the Cardinals bring. Look at how well Wichita State State looked when they didn't turn the ball over. For 33 minutes they had four TOs and 12 point lead, then proceeded to give the ball away seven times in the last seven minutes and lose the game. It's been a long time coming for Michigan. The Fab Five in 1993 was the last time the Wolverines were in the title game. Since then they've had to deal with NCAA sanctions, bad coaches and high profile players not wanting to come to a school with a lot of baggage. One of the youngest teams in the country will do what the Fab Five couldn't and cut down the nets. Michigan will earn it's second National Championship in a hard fought game 68-64.
Friday, April 5, 2013
What To Watch: Michigan Wolverines vs Syracuse Orange
In this game we have a battle of strengths, the classic offense vs defense matchup when Michigan takes on Syracuse. This is the first time two 4-seeds meet in the Final Four and it could be a memorable one. Michigan is averaging 79 points a game and Syracuse is holding opponents to just under 46 a game. Can Michigan score on the Orange stingy D? Will Syracuse be able to keep pace with the Wolverines? John Beilein and Jim Boeheim have history from when Beilein was coaching West Virgina in the Big East. Boeheim holds a 9-0 record.
How They Got Here
Michigan - South Dakota State 71-56, VCU 78-53, Kansas 87-85 OT, Florida 79-59.
Against VCU and Florida they played two of their best games of the season as they got contributions from the entire team on both ends of the court. The Kansas game was a whole other story. Mitch McGary was solid throughout but Trey Burke carried the team late. We all remember this, right?
Syracuse - Montana 81-34, California 66-60, Indiana 61-50, Marquette 55-39.
All four teams left in the bracket have pretty much dominated every opponent they've faced and that's no different for Syracuse. Their defense has been tremendous, holding Montana, Indiana and Marquette to season low's in scoring. Their zone defense has been ran to perfection so far.
Player To Watch
Mitch McGary has vastly improved his play in the tournament but Glenn Robinson III has been the x-factor for Michigan all year. Robinson will be more important than any other game as he is one of the main keys to causing havoc for the Syracuse 2-3. He will be looked upon to get in the middle of the zone and hit mid range jumpers. Also, step outside to knock in a few corner triples to stretch the defense. But Michigan will need him to hit the boards hard. Robinson will have to use his speed and athleticism against the bigger Syracuse front line to keep possessions alive if his teammates aren't making outside shots.
Key Matchup
Trey Burke vs Michael Carter-Williams. Burke is racking up all kinds of awards this year, while Carter-Williams has gone somewhat under the radar to have a stellar sophomore season of his own. Here are the two by the numbers...
PPG RPG APG SPG TO FG% 3P%
Burke - 18.8 3.1 6.8 1.6 2.2 46.4 38.1
MCW - 12.1 4.9 7.4 2.8 3.4 39.7 29.7
As you can see Burke has the advantage in all the shooting categories and turnovers while MCW takes rebounds, assists and steals. Since Syracuse plays zone MCW won't have to guard Burke one-on-one but his length on the top of that 2-3 has been big all year. He almost takes three steals a game because of his 6'6 frame with an even longer wingspan. Burke is going to have to find creases to penetrate and clear passing lanes against the size of MCW. Also, it provides somewhat of a mismatch on the other end as Carter-Williams has a six inch height advantage over Burke. Don't be surprise to Burke matched up with the smaller Brandon Triche while Tim Hardaway Jr checks MCW.
Prediction
This game is definitely tough to call, it's basically which teams strength will prove stronger. I believe Michigan, with their outside shooting, is going to be the one to escape with the win. In the Elite 8 Nik Stauskas finally found his stroke again, hitting on all six of his 3-point attempts. Along with Burke and Hardaway, this team has multiple outside threats. Let's not forget about Michigan's defense in the tournament either. Aside from the Kansas game, the Wolverines have been stingy as well, keeping their other three opponents under 60 points a game. I don't think this will be a shootout by any means but Michigan has the better offense. And in a game when buckets will be tough to come by, I have to go with the team that can put up points.
Game: Michigan
Bet: Michigan -1.5
How They Got Here
Michigan - South Dakota State 71-56, VCU 78-53, Kansas 87-85 OT, Florida 79-59.
Against VCU and Florida they played two of their best games of the season as they got contributions from the entire team on both ends of the court. The Kansas game was a whole other story. Mitch McGary was solid throughout but Trey Burke carried the team late. We all remember this, right?
Syracuse - Montana 81-34, California 66-60, Indiana 61-50, Marquette 55-39.
All four teams left in the bracket have pretty much dominated every opponent they've faced and that's no different for Syracuse. Their defense has been tremendous, holding Montana, Indiana and Marquette to season low's in scoring. Their zone defense has been ran to perfection so far.
Player To Watch
Mitch McGary has vastly improved his play in the tournament but Glenn Robinson III has been the x-factor for Michigan all year. Robinson will be more important than any other game as he is one of the main keys to causing havoc for the Syracuse 2-3. He will be looked upon to get in the middle of the zone and hit mid range jumpers. Also, step outside to knock in a few corner triples to stretch the defense. But Michigan will need him to hit the boards hard. Robinson will have to use his speed and athleticism against the bigger Syracuse front line to keep possessions alive if his teammates aren't making outside shots.
Key Matchup
Trey Burke vs Michael Carter-Williams. Burke is racking up all kinds of awards this year, while Carter-Williams has gone somewhat under the radar to have a stellar sophomore season of his own. Here are the two by the numbers...
PPG RPG APG SPG TO FG% 3P%
Burke - 18.8 3.1 6.8 1.6 2.2 46.4 38.1
MCW - 12.1 4.9 7.4 2.8 3.4 39.7 29.7
As you can see Burke has the advantage in all the shooting categories and turnovers while MCW takes rebounds, assists and steals. Since Syracuse plays zone MCW won't have to guard Burke one-on-one but his length on the top of that 2-3 has been big all year. He almost takes three steals a game because of his 6'6 frame with an even longer wingspan. Burke is going to have to find creases to penetrate and clear passing lanes against the size of MCW. Also, it provides somewhat of a mismatch on the other end as Carter-Williams has a six inch height advantage over Burke. Don't be surprise to Burke matched up with the smaller Brandon Triche while Tim Hardaway Jr checks MCW.
Prediction
This game is definitely tough to call, it's basically which teams strength will prove stronger. I believe Michigan, with their outside shooting, is going to be the one to escape with the win. In the Elite 8 Nik Stauskas finally found his stroke again, hitting on all six of his 3-point attempts. Along with Burke and Hardaway, this team has multiple outside threats. Let's not forget about Michigan's defense in the tournament either. Aside from the Kansas game, the Wolverines have been stingy as well, keeping their other three opponents under 60 points a game. I don't think this will be a shootout by any means but Michigan has the better offense. And in a game when buckets will be tough to come by, I have to go with the team that can put up points.
Game: Michigan
Bet: Michigan -1.5
Friday, March 1, 2013
Michigan Basketball Needs To Shake Its Funk
It wasn't too long ago that I had a conversation with a friend about how this years Michigan team has a legit shot at winning a national title. That was when they started the season 16-0 then moved their record to 20-1 during conference play. Since then they are 3-4 and looking like the Final Four hopes were a mirage
Wednesday's loss at Penn State is in the running for upset of the season in college basketball along with TCU over Kansas. Until then they didn't have a loss to a team outside of the top 25 in RPI ranking and all of them were on the road at Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. It's tough to call the Wisconsin game a loss because the Badgers needed a half court shot by Ben Brust to send it to overtime. But the loss at Michigan State was so bad that it counts for one and a half so it all evens out. Every team is going to lose throughout the year and those were all acceptable, but the loss at Penn State is inexcusable.
The fact that they had a 15 point lead with a little over 10 minutes left in the game then proceeded to be outscored 33-12 by a team that was winless in the Big Ten is a cause for concern. Usually when major upsets like this happen it's because the better team just has an off night like in the case of Kansas who shot 29% from the field. Michigan doesn't have that excuse because they shot 52% and hit their scoring average. What they didn't do is play defense and that's beginning to be a problem. Penn State averages 62 ppg and shoots 39% ranking 292nd and 329th respectively but managed to score 84 points on 49% shooting against the Wolverines. It's games like this you don't see the top teams losing. They will have tough road games against lesser opponents that are close but will never lose the game. If they want to get into the same class as consistently good teams like Duke and Michigan State this can't happen
We all know Michigan can score with anybody, averaging 76 ppg and shooting 49.5% from the floor, good for 6th in the country. But defensively they rank 262nd nationally in both steals (5.8) and blocks (2.6) per game. According Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense, Michigan is the only top ten team ranked outside of the top 24. In the last 10 years no National champion has been ranked lower than 19 according to Ken Pom's defensive rankings and Michigan currently sits at 57.
Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a great compliment but the lack of an inside presence on both sides of the ball is a glaring weakness. Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford are serviceable at best. This is Morgan's third year and his numbers have gone down in each one. He shows flashes every now and then as he's posted three double-doubles this year but he's too inconsistent and missing time due to injury has helped his cause. I think McGary is the best out of the bunch and reminds me of a bigger Zack Novak as far as determination. Coming in I wasn't sure about him as I saw him get torn up by Nerlens Noel in high school and watched his recruiting rank plummet. He has grown on me though, I love his hustle and passion for the game but his athleticism kills me. There's been too many times I've seen him not be able to finish around the rim with a dunk or get out rebounded by a smaller more athletic player. Horford is decent, he gets the occasional block but often looks lost on the court. Teams with good post players will always give them trouble and are hard to beat unless Michigan's guards are hitting their shots.
The starting freshmen, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III, are key to the success of this team in the tournament. Like I said, we know what to expect out of Burke and Hardaway, but they can't win big games by themselves and will need the scoring of the two young bucks. Both average 11 points but seemed to have hit a wall of late, Robinson more-so than Stauskas. In the murderers row of their schedule (at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State) Robinson scored only 18 points on 7-24 shooting. Stauskas started the year red hot from three point range ranking among the top five and hovering around 50%. Since conference play started his numbers have dropped and he's had more than two 3's in a game only three times, whereas he had eight games out of conference. It was a difficult pace to keep and defenses are tough in the Big Ten but his jumper doesn't seem as consistent as it once was. Maybe it's because they are playing more games in college than a year ago in high school. Either way UM needs to get these two back on track if they want to make a run in the tournament.
Their game against Michigan State is the biggest one so far and will tell us if they are ready to take down top notch opponents. Not only is this a rivalry game but they were utterly embarrassed in East Lansing losing by 23 and trailing by as many as 31. Every loss has came on the road and with this game being played at Crisler it's a must win for this team and needs to do it convincingly without the threat of losing it at the end. I don't want to sound like I'm calling this team overrated or I've lost faith in my team because they are very solid and better than most in the country. But if they want to be considered a serious contender for a National Championship they need to beat MSU and if not get a win against Indiana at least a game down to the last possession. The good thing for Big Blue is that there are no road games in the NCAA tournament. The bad thing is they are susceptible to an early upset.
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Wednesday's loss at Penn State is in the running for upset of the season in college basketball along with TCU over Kansas. Until then they didn't have a loss to a team outside of the top 25 in RPI ranking and all of them were on the road at Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. It's tough to call the Wisconsin game a loss because the Badgers needed a half court shot by Ben Brust to send it to overtime. But the loss at Michigan State was so bad that it counts for one and a half so it all evens out. Every team is going to lose throughout the year and those were all acceptable, but the loss at Penn State is inexcusable.
The fact that they had a 15 point lead with a little over 10 minutes left in the game then proceeded to be outscored 33-12 by a team that was winless in the Big Ten is a cause for concern. Usually when major upsets like this happen it's because the better team just has an off night like in the case of Kansas who shot 29% from the field. Michigan doesn't have that excuse because they shot 52% and hit their scoring average. What they didn't do is play defense and that's beginning to be a problem. Penn State averages 62 ppg and shoots 39% ranking 292nd and 329th respectively but managed to score 84 points on 49% shooting against the Wolverines. It's games like this you don't see the top teams losing. They will have tough road games against lesser opponents that are close but will never lose the game. If they want to get into the same class as consistently good teams like Duke and Michigan State this can't happen
We all know Michigan can score with anybody, averaging 76 ppg and shooting 49.5% from the floor, good for 6th in the country. But defensively they rank 262nd nationally in both steals (5.8) and blocks (2.6) per game. According Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense, Michigan is the only top ten team ranked outside of the top 24. In the last 10 years no National champion has been ranked lower than 19 according to Ken Pom's defensive rankings and Michigan currently sits at 57.
Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a great compliment but the lack of an inside presence on both sides of the ball is a glaring weakness. Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford are serviceable at best. This is Morgan's third year and his numbers have gone down in each one. He shows flashes every now and then as he's posted three double-doubles this year but he's too inconsistent and missing time due to injury has helped his cause. I think McGary is the best out of the bunch and reminds me of a bigger Zack Novak as far as determination. Coming in I wasn't sure about him as I saw him get torn up by Nerlens Noel in high school and watched his recruiting rank plummet. He has grown on me though, I love his hustle and passion for the game but his athleticism kills me. There's been too many times I've seen him not be able to finish around the rim with a dunk or get out rebounded by a smaller more athletic player. Horford is decent, he gets the occasional block but often looks lost on the court. Teams with good post players will always give them trouble and are hard to beat unless Michigan's guards are hitting their shots.
The starting freshmen, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III, are key to the success of this team in the tournament. Like I said, we know what to expect out of Burke and Hardaway, but they can't win big games by themselves and will need the scoring of the two young bucks. Both average 11 points but seemed to have hit a wall of late, Robinson more-so than Stauskas. In the murderers row of their schedule (at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State) Robinson scored only 18 points on 7-24 shooting. Stauskas started the year red hot from three point range ranking among the top five and hovering around 50%. Since conference play started his numbers have dropped and he's had more than two 3's in a game only three times, whereas he had eight games out of conference. It was a difficult pace to keep and defenses are tough in the Big Ten but his jumper doesn't seem as consistent as it once was. Maybe it's because they are playing more games in college than a year ago in high school. Either way UM needs to get these two back on track if they want to make a run in the tournament.
Their game against Michigan State is the biggest one so far and will tell us if they are ready to take down top notch opponents. Not only is this a rivalry game but they were utterly embarrassed in East Lansing losing by 23 and trailing by as many as 31. Every loss has came on the road and with this game being played at Crisler it's a must win for this team and needs to do it convincingly without the threat of losing it at the end. I don't want to sound like I'm calling this team overrated or I've lost faith in my team because they are very solid and better than most in the country. But if they want to be considered a serious contender for a National Championship they need to beat MSU and if not get a win against Indiana at least a game down to the last possession. The good thing for Big Blue is that there are no road games in the NCAA tournament. The bad thing is they are susceptible to an early upset.
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Friday, February 1, 2013
Michigan Basketball: 2013 vs 1993
Right now the Michigan Wolverines basketball team is ranked #1 in the country for the first time since the 1992-93 season, when the Fab Five were on the court. Before the season started I posted that this is Michigan's best since that Fab Five team and they are proving that. This weekend Michigan plays at #3 Indiana, but how would this year's team fare against its counterpart from 20 years ago?
2013 PG Trey Burke 6'0, 190 lbs, 17.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 7.1 apg
1993 PG Jalen Rose 6'8, 210 lbs, 15.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.9 apg
This is the best matchup of the five positions. Right now Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and a top three overall player. The thing I love about Burke is his low turnover rate. He is averaging 7.1 assists and only 1.9 turnover per game. Burke's ability to create his own shot while still getting his teammates involved is what sets him apart from other players. Jalen Rose was a small forward playing point guard. Rose was placed in the position because he was the best ball handler on the team but he was definitely a scorer. His 6'8 frame was something that posed a lot of problems for opponents because he was able to post up smaller players and was usually too fast for bigger defenders. Which is what Burke would have trouble with. But his speed and quickness would also cause problems for Rose. It's really close but I have to give it to Jalen. I know Rose was never a player of the year candidate but he has the athletic ability and length to challenge Burke and I don't think Burke can handle him in the post.
2013 SG Nik Stauskas 6'6, 190 lbs, 12.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 49% 3FG
1993 SG Jimmy King 6'5, 210 lbs, 10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.1 apg
The shooting guard spot puts a shooter against an athletic slasher. Nik Stauskas was the third piece of this years recruiting class behind Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary but he is proving his worth. Stauskas is among the nation's leaders in three point percentage and still has the ability to drive and finish at the rim. He does have decent size but it would be tough for him to contain Jimmy King's athleticism. King was the high flyer for the '93 team and ran the fast break great with Rose. He was their biggest three-point threat in the starting lineup and was a solid defender but it's really hard to overlook Stauskas' shooting ability. The fact that he's able to hit half the threes he takes is more important than any dunk King can throw down. Gotta take Nik, eh.
2013 SF Tim Hardaway Jr. 6'6, 205 lbs, 15.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 48% FG
1993 SF Ray Jackson 6'6, 220 lbs, 9.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 49% FG
Tim Hardaway Jr. has vastly improved his game between his sophomore and junior seasons because he's letting the offense come to him instead of forcing things. It's evident in his shooting percentage as it's jumped from 42% to 48% from the field and 28% to 41% from three. Hardaway is also the Jimmy King to Trey Burke as he runs the break exceptionally well. Ray Jackson is the forgotten member of the Fab Five but he was the defensive stopper for the team. He was also the last of the five to get into the starting rotation their freshman year. Even though his D was solid, I still have to give the edge to Hardaway's superior offensive skills.
2013 PF Glenn Robinson III 6'6, 210 lbs, 12.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 60% FG
1993 PF Chris Webber 6'9, 245 lbs, 19.2 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.5 bpg
Glenn Robinson III is a great athlete and isn't afraid to crash the boards as he is second on the team in rebounds. He's a great fit for John Belein's offense because he doesn't mind playing down low and can be a math-up nightmare for the opposing team's power forward. But, like Rose, he's playing out of position. His natural spot is at small forward and unlike Rose, he can't make up for the sheer size and strength that Chris Webber brings to the table. Webber was dominant in college averaging a double-double in both of his season at Michigan. From the moment he stepped on the court he was a force to be reckoned with on both ends of the floor as he also averaged 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. Robinson is a great prospect and will continue to improve, but he's fighting an uphill battle against a player that was drafted #1 overall.
2013 C Jordan Morgan 6'8, 250 lbs, 6.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.2 bpg
1993 C Juwan Howard 6'9, 240 lbs, 14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.6 bpg
This is the most lopsided matchup we have. Jordan Morgan is able to finish above the rim, a decent rebounder, but a below average defender. Morgan has a lot of trouble creating his own offense unless he's set up by Burke. Juwan Howard was a very skilled big man offensively and defensively. He put up good numbers in '93 but they improved even more when Webber left and he averaged 20 points and 9 boards. Howard also averaged well over 2 blocks per game in his time at Michigan. Howard would be too much for Morgan to handle and would control the paint on both side of the ball.
2013 Bench - Mitch McGary, Caris LeVert, Jon Horford
1993 Bench - Eric Riley, Rob Pelinka, James Voskuil
The bench for Michigan this year doesn't give them much outside of a rotation between Morgan, Mitch McGary and Jon Horford. One thing I love about McGary though is his intensity. The guy doesn't care if he's starting or coming off the bench, he's always going to play hard and be the first guy cheering his teammates on. He reminds me of Kevin Garnett, the way he puts his heart into every game. For the '93 team, Eric Riley was a great backup big man to have. Before Webber and Howard arrived he averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. As for Rob Pelinka and James Voskuil, they provided the occasional three but that's about it.
I have to be honest, I think the 1993 team would have its way with the 2013 team. Not to say the 2013 team couldn't win, but it would be tough. The fact that the Fab Five would dominate the boards would be hard to overcome. Not only did Webber and Howard do work on the glass, the rest of the starters all averaged over four rebounds a game. The best chance the 2013 team has is if they are hitting from beyond the arc. They have four players that can hit from distance and get hot on any given night. One thing you have to remember about the Fab Five is not only did they have great careers in college but Webber, Rose, and Howard all went on to be 20 point scorers and play 10-plus years in the NBA. In a seven game series I've got the '93 team in five.
2013 PG Trey Burke 6'0, 190 lbs, 17.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 7.1 apg
1993 PG Jalen Rose 6'8, 210 lbs, 15.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.9 apg
This is the best matchup of the five positions. Right now Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and a top three overall player. The thing I love about Burke is his low turnover rate. He is averaging 7.1 assists and only 1.9 turnover per game. Burke's ability to create his own shot while still getting his teammates involved is what sets him apart from other players. Jalen Rose was a small forward playing point guard. Rose was placed in the position because he was the best ball handler on the team but he was definitely a scorer. His 6'8 frame was something that posed a lot of problems for opponents because he was able to post up smaller players and was usually too fast for bigger defenders. Which is what Burke would have trouble with. But his speed and quickness would also cause problems for Rose. It's really close but I have to give it to Jalen. I know Rose was never a player of the year candidate but he has the athletic ability and length to challenge Burke and I don't think Burke can handle him in the post.
2013 SG Nik Stauskas 6'6, 190 lbs, 12.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 49% 3FG
1993 SG Jimmy King 6'5, 210 lbs, 10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.1 apg
The shooting guard spot puts a shooter against an athletic slasher. Nik Stauskas was the third piece of this years recruiting class behind Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary but he is proving his worth. Stauskas is among the nation's leaders in three point percentage and still has the ability to drive and finish at the rim. He does have decent size but it would be tough for him to contain Jimmy King's athleticism. King was the high flyer for the '93 team and ran the fast break great with Rose. He was their biggest three-point threat in the starting lineup and was a solid defender but it's really hard to overlook Stauskas' shooting ability. The fact that he's able to hit half the threes he takes is more important than any dunk King can throw down. Gotta take Nik, eh.
2013 SF Tim Hardaway Jr. 6'6, 205 lbs, 15.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 48% FG
1993 SF Ray Jackson 6'6, 220 lbs, 9.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 49% FG
Tim Hardaway Jr. has vastly improved his game between his sophomore and junior seasons because he's letting the offense come to him instead of forcing things. It's evident in his shooting percentage as it's jumped from 42% to 48% from the field and 28% to 41% from three. Hardaway is also the Jimmy King to Trey Burke as he runs the break exceptionally well. Ray Jackson is the forgotten member of the Fab Five but he was the defensive stopper for the team. He was also the last of the five to get into the starting rotation their freshman year. Even though his D was solid, I still have to give the edge to Hardaway's superior offensive skills.
2013 PF Glenn Robinson III 6'6, 210 lbs, 12.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 60% FG
1993 PF Chris Webber 6'9, 245 lbs, 19.2 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.5 bpg
Glenn Robinson III is a great athlete and isn't afraid to crash the boards as he is second on the team in rebounds. He's a great fit for John Belein's offense because he doesn't mind playing down low and can be a math-up nightmare for the opposing team's power forward. But, like Rose, he's playing out of position. His natural spot is at small forward and unlike Rose, he can't make up for the sheer size and strength that Chris Webber brings to the table. Webber was dominant in college averaging a double-double in both of his season at Michigan. From the moment he stepped on the court he was a force to be reckoned with on both ends of the floor as he also averaged 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. Robinson is a great prospect and will continue to improve, but he's fighting an uphill battle against a player that was drafted #1 overall.
2013 C Jordan Morgan 6'8, 250 lbs, 6.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.2 bpg
1993 C Juwan Howard 6'9, 240 lbs, 14.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.6 bpg
This is the most lopsided matchup we have. Jordan Morgan is able to finish above the rim, a decent rebounder, but a below average defender. Morgan has a lot of trouble creating his own offense unless he's set up by Burke. Juwan Howard was a very skilled big man offensively and defensively. He put up good numbers in '93 but they improved even more when Webber left and he averaged 20 points and 9 boards. Howard also averaged well over 2 blocks per game in his time at Michigan. Howard would be too much for Morgan to handle and would control the paint on both side of the ball.
2013 Bench - Mitch McGary, Caris LeVert, Jon Horford
1993 Bench - Eric Riley, Rob Pelinka, James Voskuil
The bench for Michigan this year doesn't give them much outside of a rotation between Morgan, Mitch McGary and Jon Horford. One thing I love about McGary though is his intensity. The guy doesn't care if he's starting or coming off the bench, he's always going to play hard and be the first guy cheering his teammates on. He reminds me of Kevin Garnett, the way he puts his heart into every game. For the '93 team, Eric Riley was a great backup big man to have. Before Webber and Howard arrived he averaged 10 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. As for Rob Pelinka and James Voskuil, they provided the occasional three but that's about it.
I have to be honest, I think the 1993 team would have its way with the 2013 team. Not to say the 2013 team couldn't win, but it would be tough. The fact that the Fab Five would dominate the boards would be hard to overcome. Not only did Webber and Howard do work on the glass, the rest of the starters all averaged over four rebounds a game. The best chance the 2013 team has is if they are hitting from beyond the arc. They have four players that can hit from distance and get hot on any given night. One thing you have to remember about the Fab Five is not only did they have great careers in college but Webber, Rose, and Howard all went on to be 20 point scorers and play 10-plus years in the NBA. In a seven game series I've got the '93 team in five.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Michigan Basketball's Best Team Since Fab Five
With the college basketball season only a week away this is the most excited I've been for Michigan basketball to start for as long as I can remember. With the team entering the season ranked 5th in the country there is reason for excitement. This is the best recruiting class the school has had since the Fab Five and are coming off their first Big Ten regular season championship since 1986 (even though they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament).
Michigan has three starters returning from last years squad, the most important has to be Trey Burke. He has been named a preseason All-American and is arguably the best point guard in the country. Burke thought about making the jump to the NBA but returned for his Sophomore year and with the loss of team leaders Zack Novak and Stu Douglass, Burke will be looked upon to be the leader in the locker room and on the court. Tim Hardaway Jr. will also be back for his third year with the team. He seemed to put too much pressure on himself last year to score as all of his shooting percentages went down from his Freshman season. Hopefully with this recruiting class coming in they will take some of that pressure off his shoulders. Lastly, Jordan Morgan will be back in the post for the Wolverines. What I'm looking to get out of him this year are rebounds and hustle plays. The thing that frustrates me that most about Morgan is that he plays below the rim more than I'd like. Is it too much to ask for a big man that looks to dunk instead of laying it in?
Now to the newcomers. This recruiting class is headlined by Glenn Robinson III, big blue's highest rated player since LaVell Blanchard (Michigan's Mr. Basketball in 1999). Robinson is a 6'6" athletic Small Forward that shot up the rankings during his Senior year of High School all the way to #18 overall. Robinson will add offense help to Burke and Hardaway Jr. as a player who can create his own shot and break guys down off the dribble. Originally, Mitch McGary was the coveted player of this class when he was ranked #2 in the nation at the time of his signing but unlike Robinson who moved up, McGary moved down 27th. Although he fell I'm pumped to actually have a true big man but I'm interested to see how Beilein involves him in the offense. I don't want him to be another Pittsnogle, that's not his game. I want to see him be a bruiser inside that posts up and gives Michigan a consistent inside scoring presence. What makes me nervous about McGary is that he has trouble going against players that are his size but more athletic. I saw the game between McGary and Nerlens Noel, the #1 recruit headed to Kentucky, last year and Noel dominated the entire game. The good thing for McGary is that he won't see too many players like that unless they make a deep run in the tournament. Nik Stauskas is the third player ranked in ESPN's top 100 coming in this season. Stauskas is a sniper from beyond the arc that will fill in for the loss of Douglass. He is the typical recruit for Beilein as his teams are consistently close to the leaders in three-point attempts. Rounding out the recruits are Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht.
Like I said, I can't remember the last time I've been this excited for Michigan basketball. With a lineup of Burke, Hardaway Jr., Robinson III, Morgan, and McGary they have size and scoring options at multiple positions. Do I think they are the 5th best in the country right now? Probably not. But I do know they have plenty of potential to prove they are deserving of the ranking and have their best opportunity for a Final Four run in the past 20 years.
Michigan has three starters returning from last years squad, the most important has to be Trey Burke. He has been named a preseason All-American and is arguably the best point guard in the country. Burke thought about making the jump to the NBA but returned for his Sophomore year and with the loss of team leaders Zack Novak and Stu Douglass, Burke will be looked upon to be the leader in the locker room and on the court. Tim Hardaway Jr. will also be back for his third year with the team. He seemed to put too much pressure on himself last year to score as all of his shooting percentages went down from his Freshman season. Hopefully with this recruiting class coming in they will take some of that pressure off his shoulders. Lastly, Jordan Morgan will be back in the post for the Wolverines. What I'm looking to get out of him this year are rebounds and hustle plays. The thing that frustrates me that most about Morgan is that he plays below the rim more than I'd like. Is it too much to ask for a big man that looks to dunk instead of laying it in?
Now to the newcomers. This recruiting class is headlined by Glenn Robinson III, big blue's highest rated player since LaVell Blanchard (Michigan's Mr. Basketball in 1999). Robinson is a 6'6" athletic Small Forward that shot up the rankings during his Senior year of High School all the way to #18 overall. Robinson will add offense help to Burke and Hardaway Jr. as a player who can create his own shot and break guys down off the dribble. Originally, Mitch McGary was the coveted player of this class when he was ranked #2 in the nation at the time of his signing but unlike Robinson who moved up, McGary moved down 27th. Although he fell I'm pumped to actually have a true big man but I'm interested to see how Beilein involves him in the offense. I don't want him to be another Pittsnogle, that's not his game. I want to see him be a bruiser inside that posts up and gives Michigan a consistent inside scoring presence. What makes me nervous about McGary is that he has trouble going against players that are his size but more athletic. I saw the game between McGary and Nerlens Noel, the #1 recruit headed to Kentucky, last year and Noel dominated the entire game. The good thing for McGary is that he won't see too many players like that unless they make a deep run in the tournament. Nik Stauskas is the third player ranked in ESPN's top 100 coming in this season. Stauskas is a sniper from beyond the arc that will fill in for the loss of Douglass. He is the typical recruit for Beilein as his teams are consistently close to the leaders in three-point attempts. Rounding out the recruits are Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht.
Like I said, I can't remember the last time I've been this excited for Michigan basketball. With a lineup of Burke, Hardaway Jr., Robinson III, Morgan, and McGary they have size and scoring options at multiple positions. Do I think they are the 5th best in the country right now? Probably not. But I do know they have plenty of potential to prove they are deserving of the ranking and have their best opportunity for a Final Four run in the past 20 years.
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