Does Winning Your Conference Tournament Help Your NCAA Chances?

Every conference has one (except the Ivy League) and whoever wins gets a free ticket to the national tournament (except the Great West).  I'm talking about conference tournaments.  In an earlier posting I shared my excitement for championship week.  But come bracket time, I never shared that excitement with picking teams that won their conference tournament to win the national tournament.  My reasoning was that I felt it's very difficult for a team, even the best in the country, to show up roughly ten straight games in win or go home situations and come out the victor.  Especially when going up against the top competition in the nation.  Boy was I wrong, no wonder why I can never win a bracket challenge.

Since some of the power conferences didn't have tournaments prior to 1998 (Big 12 1997, Big Ten 1998, Pac-12 2002) so I went back 15 years.  But the numbers are staggering.  Of teams that won their conference tournament 26 of 60 (43%) were Final Four teams, 16 of 30 (53%) made the Finals, and 10 of 15 (67%) were National Champions.

To some it seems obvious, partly because only two (2011 UConn and 2006 Florida) were not a 1-seed.  But there are only six teams that win a title in power conferences (no team outside power six has won national title), which means there are far more quality teams that don't.  You hear it every year from big time coaches like Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski, they are almost happy for losing early in the conference tourney because it gives their team a chance to rest.  But we know now that's actually a bad thing.  How much rest do their teams need anyway?  We have to remember these are 19-21 year olds, not 30 year old season vets with bad knees.  So the rest thing really shouldn't be much of a factor.

This is just some food for thought while you are filling out the all important bracket.  Before you get too high on certain teams here's a list of top 4-seed teams that did not bring home a conference tournament championship

Indiana, Duke, Georgetown, Florida, Michigan State, Marquette, Michigan, Kansas State, Syracuse

Here's a list of teams that won a title to keep an eye on

Louisville (Big East), Kansas (Big 12), Gonzaga (West Coast), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami FL (ACC), New Mexico (Mountain West), Saint Louis (A-10), Ole Miss (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12)

And, here's the list of Final Four teams from the last 15 yeaers.

Teams in parenthesis won their conference tournament. Underlined teams won championship. Bold teams were in the finals.

2012 – Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, (Louisville)

2011 – (UConn), (Butler), (Kentucky), VCU

2010 – (Duke), (Butler), (West Virginia), Michigan State

2009 – UNC, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova

2008 – (Kansas), Memphis, (UNC), (UCLA)

2007 – (Florida), (Ohio State), (Georgetown), UCLA

2006 – (Florida), (UCLA), LSU, George Mason

2005 – UNC, (Illinois), Louisville, Michigan State

2004 – (UConn), Georgia Tech, Duke, (Oklahoma State)

2003 – Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Marquette

2002 – Maryland, Indiana, Kansas, (Oklahoma)

2001 – (Duke), Arizona, Michigan State, Maryland

2000 – (Michigan State), Florida, UNC, Wisconsin

1999 – (UConn), (Duke), (Michigan State), Ohio State

1998 – (Kentucky), Utah, (UNC), Stanford

National Champions – 10 of 15

Finals appearances – 16 of 30

Final Four appearances – 26 of 60

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6 Teams That Have Something To Prove In Conference Tournaments

For teams on the bubble, conference tournaments are their last chance to state their case on why they should be invited to the NCAA tournament.  However, for Final Four contenders it's their time to show they aren't getting the respect they deserve.  A lot can be said about a team that wins their conference tourney and the momentum that it provides into the national tournament.  The 2011 Connecticut team is a prime example.  They lost four of their last six to end the season then proceeded to win four games in four days for the Big East title.  That led to a run for the national championship, thanks in large part to Kemba Walker.  These teams need to show us what they got during Championship Week.


ACC

Miami FL

The Hurricanes won the ACC regular season title for the first time since joining the league in 2004.  A month ago this team was ranked #2 in the nation and started 13-0 in the ACC with blowouts over Duke and North Carolina.  However, they lost three (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech) of their last five games and some doubters are starting to creep up on The U.  The biggest reason is all the love that Duke is getting since Ryan Kelly came back.  All of a sudden people are forgetting the fact that Miami routed the Blue Devils 90-63 at home.  Or that if Ryan Kelly didn't have the game of his life (36 pts, 7-9 3FG) Duke might not have got their 79-76 win at Cameron Indoor.  Miami has quality players in Shane Larkin, Kenny Kadji, and Durand Scott but has some head scratching losses.  However, when big games arrive Miami has came to play.  Along with huge wins over Duke, UNC, and NC State, they've also taken down Michigan State 67-59.  If they are able to win the ACC tournament and beat Duke again in the championship game, this team will be riding high into the big dance.


Big 12

Kansas State

Kansas State has always been the red-headed step child in the Big 12, mostly because of the dominance their rival Kansas has had over the league.  Even though they won its first ever conference title this year (albeit shared with Kansas), again this team is forgotten.  All the talk for the Big 12 making noise in the post season is for KU and Oklahoma State, nothing at all for the Wildcats.  It shows in the picks made by ESPN's college basketball writers for the conference tournament champion.  Baylor was even shown some love!  K-State is the Big 12's second highest ranked team in the top 25 but there's no faith in them.  It is understandable in the fact that they were only 2-5 against ranked teams.  One player to watch for is Rodney McGruder.  This is a guy that can carry a team in tournament play and will have to if the Wildcats want to succeed.  If there's a team on this list similar to the 2011 UConn team, this is the one.  A run in the Big 12 tournament with wins over Baylor/Oklahoma State and Kansas, anything is possible.


Big East

Marquette

Louisville and Georgetown shared a Big East title with another team can you guess who?  Syracuse?  No.  Pittsburgh?  No.  Connecticut?  No.  It was Marquette, yes, Marquette.  Their first title since a guy named Dwyane Wade won one in 2003 when they were still in Conference USA.  This team probably doesn't have one player that will make the NBA but it epitomizes the word TEAM.  How else can you beat the likes of Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh with inferior talent.  Another component is their coach, Buzz Williams.  I love coaches that are intense and this guy is crazy, but he knows how to get a team to play together.  They've won low scoring games (49-48), high scoring games (89-78) and three games in overtime.  With a share in the Big East and a 23-7 record, some how this team is still under the radar.  The Big East tournament is always grueling for any team.  If the Golden Eagles are able to make the championship game or better yet, win the title, the country will have no choice but to give them the respect they deserve.


Big Ten

Michigan

Oh Michigan.  How you frustrate me.  For the first time since the Fab Five in 1993, the Wolverines reached #1 in the country.  But they inexcusably lost at Penn State (winless in the Big Ten), Wisconsin's Ben Brust will forever be remembered with Evan Turner for hitting a half court shot, and the Indiana game reminds us of the importance of free throws.  The IU game not only lost Michigan a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but also dropped them to a fifth seed in the Big Ten tournament.  That's not a good thing because that means no bye and having to go through three of the top four teams instead of two.  The one thing Michigan has though is Trey Burke.  The B1G player of the year and currently still the front runner for national POY.  With a guy like him on your team you are never out of it.  The Wolverines are one of the best offensive teams in the country with four guys that can go off for 20+ on any given night.  Their problem is defense.  With no real lockdown defender on the perimeter or in the post, their best bet it to outscore the other team.  They have the talent to beat any team in the country, especially if they are hitting their 3's.  A Big Ten tournament title could lead to another trip to the Final Four, also a place the Wolverines haven't been since the Fab Five.  Oh wait, that never happened, right?


Pac-12

Arizona

The Wildcats were ranked as high as #4 in the country with wins over Florida, Miami, and San Diego State to start the year.  Now, they enter the Pac-12 tournament as the #4 seed behind UCLA, Cal, and Oregon.  Even with that, they are still recognized as the favorite according to Las Vegas books.  But, their national attention has slowly faded throughout the season.  This team has solid players in Xavier transfer Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, and Nick Johnson so they aren't short on talent.  Last year the Pac-12 only had one team enter the NCAA tournament (Colorado because of an automatic bid) so the nation is still not too keen on these west coast teams.  However, Arizona has shown us they can compete with high quality competition and win.  So, this is not a team that should be taken lightly.  The Wildcats lost to all of the top three teams during conference play  For Arizona to be looked at as a Final Four contender they need to run through the Pac-12 tournament win a vengeance.


Mountain West

New Mexico

Originally, I was going to talk about the SEC but since the Mountain West will have more teams in the NCAA tournament and is a better league top to bottom, they get the mention.  The MWC will likely get four, possibly five, teams in the big dance.  The cream of the crop are the Lobos and Steve Alford's squad is currently ranked #2 in RPI.  They won't beat you with any sort of flash, but will wear you down on defense and make you play at their pace.  The biggest sore spot on their record was a 55-34 loss at San Diego State.  To only score 34 points in a game is embarrassing, which is their problem.  They only shoot 42% from the field, ranking 222nd nationally.  However, Kendall Williams is a player that if he gets hot he's very difficult to stop.  In a game at Colorado State, Williams scored 46 points on 10-13 from three in a 91-82 victory.  As you can see New Mexico has the capability of putting up big numbers but they can also lay an egg.  Taking home a regular season and tournament championship in very good Mountain West conference will tell us that the Lobos are no joke.


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College Basketball Championship Week Previews

Championship week.  The tournaments before THE tournament.  This week starts the conference tournaments for all the major conferences in college basketball.  The mid-majors started last week with Florida Gulf Coast (24-10), Liberty (15-20), Creighton (27-7), and Belmont (26-6) already punching their tickets for the big dance.  This is what starts the madness in March (although this whole season has been madness).  This is the last chance for bubble teams to get quality wins over ranked teams and Cinderellas have a chance to get hot and take a spot from a team on the bubble.

All favorites determined by Las Vegas odds

ACC

Bracket

When: March 14-17

Favorite: The ACC is not what it's been in years past with only two teams ranked in the top 25, but those two (Duke and Miami) are ranked in the top 10.  The return of Ryan Kelly for Duke definitely makes them the team to watch for.  It seems his foot is fully healed as he went off for 36 points with 7 three's in a huge home win over Miami in his first game back.  Mason Plumlee has been consistent all year averaging a double-double with 17 and 10.2.  Throw in Seth Curry's 17 ppg and you have guys at three positions that would make a great Gus Macker squad.

Contenders: Miami is the first team ever in the ACC to beat Duke and North Carolina by 25 or more in the same year.  The Canes have struggled to close the season losing three of their last five but are still very dangerous.  Speaking of UNC, they finished strong winning six of seven but lost 69-53 to Duke their last game.  Reggie Bullock had double-doubles in three of the last five games. 

Pick: Duke has dominated this tournament since 1999 winning 10 of the 14 titles and will add another trophy to their mantle.  Miami is on a big down slide and UNC can't match-up with Duke's talent, as they just showed us.  The Blue Devils have too many players that can hurt you as five average double figures.


BIG 12

Bracket

When: March 13-16

Favorite: Other than a nasty three game losing streak, Kansas was near the top of the rankings all year led by Ben McLemore (16.5 ppg) and Jeff Withey (13.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg).  They were the victim of the upset of the year when TCU beat them 62-55 but got back on track and won seven of their last eight to end the season.

Contenders: Kansas State had four losses in conference play and two were to Kansas.  K-State won't shoot you out of the gym (44% FG on the season) but they play tough tenacious defense.  Rodney McGruder is a games changer that can take over at any time.  Oklahoma State is the other team to keep an eye on.  They are led by Markel Brown (15.6 ppg) and the possible freshman of the year in Marcus Smart (14.9 ppg).  The Cowboys have one win over Kansas on the road and lost in double overtime at home to the Jayhawks.  They were one of the surprise teams in the country.

Pick: Kansas is another team that has had a hold on the regular season and tournament titles in the Big 12 in the past.  But, Oklahoma State has the size and athleticism to compete with them.  They have proven to be a tough match-up for KU in both games and Jayhawks are a team that has been shaky all year.  OK-State will take the tournament title.


BIG EAST

Bracket

When: March 12-16

Favorite: The Big East is very top heavy with five teams ranked in the top 25 but the Louisville Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the country (#1 in KenPom's adjusted defense) and good offense led but Russ Smith's 18.4 ppg.  Gorgui Dieng is solid in the middle averaging a double-double and Peyton Siva is one of the best point guards in the league at managing a game.  If not for a 5 OT loss at Notre Dame they could be on an 11 game win streak.

Contenders: Georgetown finished the season winning 12 of 13 with wins over ranked teams Louisville, Syracuse (twice), Marquette, and Notre Dame.  In that time Otto Porter Jr. made his case for POY with 16.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg.  Syracuse started the season 18-1 but lost four of its last five.  But don't let that fool you, this team is still dangerous.  C.J. Fair, Brandon Triche, and James Southerland all average over 14 ppg and Michael Carter-Williams is a do-it-all point guard.  Pittsburgh is a sleeper team to also watch out for as KenPom has them ranked 7th overall.

Pick: Louisville and Georgetown are like mirror images of each other.  Both have been playing really well but the Cardinals have more help to offer Russ Smith than Georgetown has for Otto Porter Jr. 


BIG TEN

Bracket

When: March 14-17

Favorite: No conference has beat itself up and has been more unpredictable than the Big Ten.  However, Indiana is the one team that has been the most consistent.  Cody Zeller started as the POY favorite but now it's his teammate, Victor Oladipo, that is in the hunt for the honor.  Zeller still averages 16.5 ppg and 8 rpg while Oladipo is putting up 13.7 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.3 steals and shooting an amazing 63% from the field.  Let's not forget about the two seniors, Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford, who are ranked in the top 10 in 3-point percentage.

Contenders: Where do I start?  There are so many teams that fit in this category.  Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and even Minnesota can all make a run.  Michigan is viewed as next in line behind Indiana even with being the fifth seed and blowing their game against Indiana.  Trey Burke, who is the leader in the POY race is averaging 19.1 ppg, 6.9 apg, and leads the nation in assist to turnover ratio at 3.65.  Michigan State had a tough three game losing streak late but this is when Izzo's teams get hot.  They have a solid starting five with size and speed to match-up with anybody and a defense that keeps them in every game.  Deshaun Thomas leads the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and if Ohio State can get a consistent second scorer from either Aaron Craft or Lenzelle Smith Jr. this team goes from a top 15 team to a top 5 team nationally.

Pick: Indiana is still the team to beat in the Big Ten especially after their big win at Michigan.  They have the best starting five in the Big Ten with the preseason POY in Cody Zeller and possibly the end of the season POY in Victor Oladipo (also the best all around player in the country).  I won't be surprised if any of the teams mentioned above come out with the title but I will roll with the favorite right now.  Also, if Indiana or Michigan come out on top it will be their first Big Ten tournament title.


PAC-12

Bracket

When: March 13-16

Favorite: The Pac-12 is probably the hardest conference to determine a favorite and even though Arizona didn't win a regular season title they are looked at as the top team.  They started the year 14-0 with wins over Florida and Miami but had some struggles in conference play.  Xavier transfer Mark Lyons leads the team in scoring at 15.1 ppg.

Contenders: Oregon gave Arizona it's first loss of the year and have recently got their point guard, Dominic Artis, back from injury.  They don't have anybody that averages more than 11.2 (E.J. Singler) and balanced on offense.  UCLA is led by freshmen Shabazz Muhammad, Jordan Adams, and Kyle Anderson.  They also have three North Carolina transfers in Larry Drew II, Travis Wear, and David Wear.  This team is very talented but lack consistency.  Don't sleep on California or Colorado.

Pick: A year ago the Pac-12 only had one team reach the NCAA tournament, Colorado, who received the automatic bid for their conference tournament title.  This year I'm going with UCLA.  They have the players and scoring ability to beat anybody in the conference.  It comes down to whether their young players can stay focused against experienced teams like Oregon and Arizona.


SEC

Bracket

When: March 13-17

Favorite: Without question the favorite in the SEC are the Florida Gators.  This had been a down year for the SEC as the Gators are the only ranked team in the conference.  This team is first in KenPom's rankings and is one of the most balanced in the country.  They have the ability to beat you on the perimeter with Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario (12.6 ppg each) or pound you inside with Patric Young and Erik Murphy.

Contenders: The defending National Champion Kentucky Wildcats are on the bubble but got much needed win over Florida in their final game.  The loss of Nerlens Noel for the rest of the year on Feb. 12 really set this team back.  Fellow freshman Archie Goodwin has stepped up his play in Noel's absence.  The Missouri Tigers are the other team to keep your eye on.  They like to push the ball as much as possible and have six players averaging double figures.  Phil Pressey is a great passer averaging 7.1 assists but is turnover prone (3.7 per game) and a terrible shooter (38%).

Pick: I have to go with Florida.  They dominated the conference all year, winning by almost 20 points a game in league play.  They have great inside-outside combinations and I have a hard time seeing this team lose at a neutral site.


Need more basketball action?  Check out Watch Like A Champion and get all of your hoop updates, trivia, and tournament talk!  Then enter to win a Samsung 60" LED TV, Galaxy Note Tablet, Panasonic Cordless Phone System, and One Year of Free Service through the Cox Ultimate Entertainment Sweepstakes! http://shout.lt/gD9t


Follow @JasonShusteric on Twitter