Elite 8 Day 1 Recap

Wichita State shocks another top seed to earn a trip to Atlanta

Cinderella is still dancing as Wichita State took down the 2-seed Ohio State 70-66.  The Buckeyes couldn't hit anything in the first half as the Shockers built a 35-22 halftime lead as Cleanthony Early led the way.  In the second it was more of the same for the first nine minutes as WSU pushed the lead to 56-36 with 11:01 left.  But Ohio State wasn't about to give up yet.  After seeing Michigan erase a 14-point deficit with less than seven minutes to go against Kansas the night before, OSU started to chip away.  The Buckeyes went on a 23-6 run to make it 62-59 with 2:49 remaining.  In a spot where most thought the 9-seed Shockers would continue to wilt, they came up big.  First it was Tekele Cotton who hit a 3-pointer on their next possession.  Then after Deshaun Thomas scored, Fred Vanvleet made a shot in the lane that bounced at least six times on the rim before finally dropping.  From then on it was a foul fest and OSU wasn't able to complete their comeback.  Wichita State had great balance on offense as six players scored at least eight, led by Malcolm Armstead with 14 and Early with 12.  The Shockers also played great defense holding the Buckeyes to only 31% from the field and 5-25 on 3-pointers (OSU was 50% in the tournament prior).  On the outside, Armstead held Aaron Craft to only 2-12 shooting while Carl Hall controlled the paint with six blocks.  OSU star Deshaun Thomas finished with 23 and LaQuinton Ross played well for the third consecutive game adding 19 but it wasn't enough.  Wichita State only won by four but pretty much dominated for 3/4's of the game and earned their ticket to the Final Four.  Their region was decimated with upsets but they managed to get past the #1 and #2 seeded teams in the West.  The Shockers might be a mid-major 9-seed but they have proven themselves worthy and should not be taken lightly by either Louisville or Duke.

Syracuse continues its strong defense, knocking off Big East foe

It wasn't the prettiest game but that's how Syracuse is making their opponents look on offense, ugly.  The Orange held Marquette to only 18 points in the first half and 39 for the game as they smothered their Big East counterpart for the 55-39 victory.  Marquette's 39 points was the fewest ever scored in an Elite Eight game in the shot clock era.  The Syracuse 2-3 zone has been dominating opponents all tournament with their length and athleticism.  To have a guy like Michael Carter-Williams (6'6) at the top of the zone is what causes trouble for other teams.  His length makes it difficult to find passing lanes and he's able to challenge 3-point attempts.  MCW had 12 points, eight rebound, six assists, and five steals with only one turnover against Marquette.  Speaking of turnovers, Marquette is now the third team to have more turnovers than field goals made against the Orange in this years tournament, joining Montana and Indiana.  The Golden Eagles had 14 TOs but only 12 shots made on 22% shooting.  Cuse's defense is unbelievable right now, they are holding teams to 14 less points than in the regular season (45.8 per game), 29% from the field and 15% from long range.  James Southerland was a big spark in the scoring department, putting in 16 and can be a killer from deep.  The remaining teams should be fearful of Syracuse and their zone, nobody seems to be able to figure it out.  If defense wins championships, the Orange are in prime position to cut down the nets.



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What To Watch For In The Elite 8

Marquette vs Syracuse

Player To Watch - Vander Blue has done whatever this team has needed during their run in the tournament and he will have to continue that against Syracuse.  Marquette is not a good 3-point shooting team (30%) but Blue has gone 5-10 in his first three games.  That coupled with his penetration ability is what the Golden Eagles are going to need to breakdown the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which caused Indiana fits.

Key Matchup - These two Big East teams only played once in the regular season, a game Marquette won 74-71.  This is more of a team thing than individual as it's Marquette's offense against the Syracuse 2-3 zone.  In their game against Indiana, the Orange befuddled the Hoosiers because they rarely had to play against a 2-3 but Marquette sees it every year.  In their first game Davante Gardner had 26 points and eight boards but everybody else struggled, especially from the 3-point line.  There are multiple ways to beat the zone but hitting outside shots helps a lot and if Marquette is cold again from beyond the arc they might not be as fortunate to escape with a win.

Deciding Factor - Rebounding.  Can Syracuse rebound out of their zone and can Marquette keep the bigger Orange off the offensive glass.  Playing a zone makes it difficult to find a man and box out especially against hustle guys like Gardner and Jamil Wilson.  But the Orange have the size to attack the offensive boards as well with Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, James Southerland and C.J. Fair.  Marquette and Syracuse had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively in their first game and the team that can limit the other has a great chance of winning.


Ohio State vs Wichita State

Player To Watch - Aaron Craft has been playing great offensively and defensively in Ohio State's first three games, including hitting a game winner against Iowa State.  All year he's been the x-factor for this team.  We know what to expect out of Deshaun Thomas but when Craft plays like he has been this team can beat anybody in the country.  He's averaging six assists and just over 11 points in the tournament.  He's going up against a senior in Malcolm Armstead that's been playing well himself so it will be interesting to see if Craft's pressure will get to him.

Key Matchup - Deshaun Thomas vs Carl Hall.  Thomas led the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and hasn't slowed down in the tournament.  Hall played great against LaSalle, 16 and 8, but containing Thomas is a difficult task.  It's tough to say that Hall can neutralize Thomas but if he keeps their matchup somewhat close Wichita State has a better chance of pulling the upset.

Deciding Factor - These teams are basically mirror images of each other if you look at stats across the board.  Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and turnovers are all pretty even.  To me it's going to come down to if Deshaun Thomas continues to get help on the offensive end.  Whether is Craft, LaQuinton Ross, or Lezelle Smith Jr, somebody else has to score.  Ross has put up 17 in the each of the last two games but if that stops OSU will struggle.  Wichita State is a deeper team so if they have multiple guys contributing, as they have so far, look for them to stay with the Buckeyes until the end.


Michigan vs Florida

Player To Watch - Obviously Trey Burke.  But I'm going with Mitch McGary.  John Beilein finally decided to start the big freshman and it's paying off.  McGary is averaging just under 20 points and a little over 12 rebounds in the tournament.  All of a sudden this guy is playing like one of the best big men in the country.

Key Matchup - Trey Burke against the Gators pressure.  Burke had 23 points and a huge game-tying 3-pointer from super long range against Kansas but has turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the tournament.  During the regular season Burke had the best assist to turnover ratio in the country but has 13 in three games in the tournament, including seven against VCU.  The Gators forced 20 turnovers against Florida Gulf Coast and have three guards that bring pressure.  Burke will be the likely Player of the Year but if he continues to struggle with turnovers it can put Michigan in a bad spot.

Deciding Factor - Offense vs Defense.  The Gators have won by double digits in every victory this year but when they've lost they've had a hard time scoring.  Even in their win against FGCU they only shot 38%.  Michigan on the other hand has hovered around 50% all tournament but their defense has been shaky all year.  If Michigan can limit Florida on offense they will likely win.  But Florida is ranked in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy's offense and defense and has the ability to run with the Wolverines.  If it's a shooting match, the Gators defense is better and will help them prevail.


Louisville vs Duke 

Player To Watch - Gorgui Dieng.  In their first matchup he didn't play and Mason Plumlee had 16 and seven rebounds to help Duke get a 76-71 win.  With Dieng back in the lineup he's one player that can stop Plumlee on offense and the glass.  Dieng is averaging a double-double on the year with 2.5 blocks and is the inside presence Louisville needs to make a title run.

Key Matchup - Russ Smith vs Seth Curry.  These are the two hottest shooters in the country as Smith is averaging 27 and Curry with 24.  Both of these guys have the ability to go for 30 and very well might.  If you like scoring then this is the best matchup for it from here on out.

Deciding Factor -  Can Duke stop Louisville?  The Cardinals entire offense has been on point as they've shot at least 54% in every game in the tourney so far.  If Duke wants to win this game they have to figure out a way to slow them down because so far nobody has been able to.  I expect this to be a classic game between these two teams and coaches, Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski.



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Sweet 16 Day 1 Recap

Ohio State does it again, downing Arizona in the final seconds

For the second straight game Ohio State was tied with its opponent and had the ball for the last shot.  Against Iowa State it was Aaron Craft who hit the dagger 3-pointer, tonight against Arizona it was LaQuinton Ross.  This game was back and forth all night, with each team controlling a half.  In the first it was all Arizona who held an 11 point lead before the Buckeyes cut it to four, 38-34, at the break.  OSU opened the second stanza with a 10-0 run to take a six point lead, which later grew to ten.  But the Wildcats weren't done as Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons kept them in it during OSU's run.  At one point Hill scored nine straight and finished with 16 on 7-11 shooting.  In the last 1:20 Arizona was down 69-63 when Lyons scored the last nine for the Cats and he tied the game at 70 with 21 seconds left.  So again OSU can take the last shot and the ball is in Craft's hands.  This time he gives it up to Ross who nails the triple with only two seconds remaining and Ohio State finishes off Arizona 73-70.  Ross was on fire in the second half as he scored 14 of his 17 after the intermission.  For Arizona, Lyons had a great tournament scoring no less than 23 in each of his three games.  In the 2012 NCAA tournament, players were 0-12 in the last ten seconds on potential game-tying or go-ahead field goal attempts.  This year we've already had four made field goals by Vander Blue, Tyrone Garland, Aaron Craft, and now LaQuinton Ross.

Syracuse and the 2-3 zone slows down Indiana

That sound you hear are thousands of people ripping up their brackets.  If Gonzaga and Miami going down wasn't enough, we lost a very popular pick to win it all when Indiana fell to Syracuse 61-50.  The Orange controlled the pace of the game and slowed down Indiana with their 2-3 zone.  The Hoosiers scored a season low 50 points while shooting 33% from the field (3-15 on 3's) and committed 18 turnovers.  Syracuse was disruptive all night with their length blocking ten shots and creating 12 steals as Michael Carter-Williams led the way.  MCW had 24 points and 4 steals because nobody on Indiana could contain him, not even Victor Oladipo.  But, Oladipo was the lone bright spot for IU scoring 16 on 5-6 from the field.  Cody Zeller posted 10 and 10 but was 3-11, and Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls combined for 4-17 (Hulls 0-6).  Syracuse is a tough team to prepare for if you don't play against a lot of zone during the regular season and they are a very dangerous team that seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball.

Marquette breezes past Miami FL to get to Elite 8

The Marquette Golden Eagles were a bad in-bounds pass away from being bounced early by Davidson and are now heading to the Elite 8 after routing Miami.  Marquette won its first two games of the tournament by a total of three points but against the Hurricanes their largest lead was 22 before the game finished at 71-61.  It was definitely a total team effort as the six players that scored all had at least eight points and Jamil Wilson led with 16.  Marquette shot 54% from the field and held Miami to only 35% and 8-26 on 3-pointers.  The Hurricanes had a terrible start to the game, only scoring 16 in the first half and were never able to recover.  The Golden Eagles reach the Elite 8 for the first time since 2003 when Dwyane Wade was running the show.  This year it's been Vander Blue leading this team hitting the game-winner against Davidson, putting in 29 in a 74-72 win over Butler and last night scoring 14 on 7-12 shooting.  Marquette had an early exit in the Big East tournament but are now showing signs of the surprise team that shared a regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown.  They epitomize the word "team" and now have to face a familiar foe in Syracuse for a chance to go to Atlanta for the Final Four.

The Shockers continue their post season run

For the first time in this tournament Wichita State was the favorite in their matchup with LaSalle and they played like it.  The Shockers started the game on a 17-3 run and the game was basically over from then on as they cruised to a 72-58 win.  Carl Hall scored ten of his 16 points during that run and also added eight boards.  In the second half it was Malcolm Armstead that paced the Shockers scoring nine straight at one point en route to leading the team with 18.  Wichita State also played great defensively holding LaSalle to only 35% shooting and continued their trend of keeping their first three opponents to that same percentage.  For the Explorers, Ramon Galloway and Tyrone Garland were a combined 9-30 from the field.  Wichita State has a date with Ohio State on Sunday and earlier in the tournament Thad Matta told reporters teams that a good at rebounding scare him.  Well, the Shockers outrebounded LaSalle 44-23.



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NCAA Tournament Day 3 Recap

Wichita State shocks the Zags

Gonzaga was pushed by Southern in their first game and they were thought of by many to be the first 1-seed to out of the tournament.  Tonight they proved those people right as 9-seed Wichita State took out the top team, 76-70, in the crazy West Region.  The Shockers jumped out early going up 26-13 and leading 36-31 at the half.  Gonzaga came out in the second half blazing on an 18-5 run to take an eight point lead 49-41.  At this point you figured the Bulldogs have found their groove and will continue their run to closeout the Shockers.  But it was Rob Baker who scored eight points in 1:38 to give Wichita State the lead back at 67-63 with just under three minutes to play.  Baker finished with 16 points on 4-6 from deep and Cleanthony Early also chipped in 16 with seven boards.  The Shockers went 50% from the field including 14-28 on 3-pointers.  On the other hand the Zags couldn't find their offense down the stretch going only 4-12 in the last 6:05.  Kelly Olynyk finished with 26 points and nine rebounds.

Marquette seeks revenge on Butler

This was a rematch of a game from November in Maui that Butler won on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Rotnei Clarke for the 72-71 win.  Marquette wanted to come out and get revenge for that heartbreaking loss but it was the Bulldogs that had the 35-27 lead at the break.  Marquette managed to fight back in the second half and tie the game late with 1:29 left after Vander Blue hit a 3 to make it 69-69.  After three free throws by the Golden Eagles, Butler's Roosevelt Jones found himself on the line with 15 seconds left.  Jones made the first and The Bulldogs were down two.  He missed the second and these two teams found themselves in the same position they were in at Maui.  Butler got the rebound off the miss and Rotnei Clarke hoisted the potential game-winning 3 but he was off.  Marquette finished off the late rally to win 74-72 behind Blue's 29 points.  Clarke added 24 for Butler.  The closest margin of the day before this game was Oregon over Saint Louis by 17, so this was the type of nail-biter we all expect to see in the tournament.

Michigan and Michigan State cruise to the Sweet 16

The state of Michigan sent the first two teams in the Sweet 16.  Michigan led the way as the Wolverines reached the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since 1994.  Coming into their game against the VCU Rams, Michigan was said to be on upset alert for the second straight game.  The biggest reason is VCU's "havoc" defense and the fact that they just beat a short-handed Akron team 88-42, but Michigan had a few surprises for the Rams.  The first was that to handle their press the Wolverines decided to have Tim Hardaway Jr. bring the ball up to help Trey Burke.  VCU leads the nation in steals, led by Darius Theus (2.4 spg, who was on Burke), but the Wolverines took care of the ball well in the first half as Burke and Hardaway only had three turnovers combined and led 38-23 at the break.  The other surprise was the play of Mitch McGary who played his most minutes of the season and rewarded John Beilein with 21 points on 10-11 shooting and 14 rebounds, both career highs.  An inside presence has been UM's most glaring weakness all year, if McGary can keep this up it makes the Wolverines an even tougher out.  Michigan's largest lead was 31 and the highlight of the night went to Spike Albrecht's left handed bounce pass between defenders to Glenn Robinson III for the dunk.  Michigan held VCU to only 3-16 on 3-pointers and the Wolverines now gear up for Kansas.

March is the month of Tom Izzo and Michigan State.  Memphis was able to keep it close in the first half (32-29) but the Spartans pulled away in the second to earn the 70-48 victory and move on to the sweet 16.  Gary Harris was hitting early and often as he poured in 23 points on 4-7 from beyond the arc and Adreian Payne controlled the paint with 14 points, ten boards and a career high five blocks.  MSU turned the ball over 18 times but a stifling defense held Memphis to only 29.7% from the floor.  The Spartans also are going to have to check the status of Keith Appling as he left the game with a right shoulder injury.  The starting point guard said he could have gone back in if needed but it will be interesting to see how it will affect him next weekend.  MSU now awaits the winner of Creighton and Duke, if the Blue Devils prevail it will be a matchup between two of the best coaches in the country.

Oregon shows they are for real

Oregon felt disrespected by receiving a 12-seed and they are taking it out on their opponents.  After dismantling Oklahoma State 68-55 in their first game, Saint Louis was the next victim 74-57.  The Billikens were a sexy pick by a few analysts to possibly upset #1 Louisville but they never reached that matchup because the Ducks weren't having it.  The game was tight for the first seven minutes when Saint Louis held an 11-10 lead.  After that, Oregon finished the half on a 25-8 run and never looked back.  Saint Louis had one of the best defenses in the country but the Ducks ran their offense with great efficiency as they shot 53% from the field and were 8-11 from distance.  Freshman Damyean Dotson led the way for Oregon with 23 points and 5-6 on 3-pointers.  Also, Arsalan Kazemi controlled the paint with eight points and 16 rebounds, including seven offense.  Oregon faces Louisville next weekend and shouldn't be taken lightly by the top seed in the Midwest.

Arizona is looking like the team that started the season 14-0

Another Pac-12 team that didn't get much respect when the tournament began was Arizona.  The Wildcats were once ranked as high as #4 in the country after starting 14-0 with wins over Florida, Miami FL, and San Diego State.  In conference play (Oregon gave them their first loss) Arizona struggled against the top teams in the Pac-12 and ended up a 4-seed in the conference tournament, then ousted by UCLA.  However, they seem to be rejuvenated in the big dance as they've won their first two games by an average of 20 points.  Belmont was a popular upset pick by many but they were no match for Arizona and neither was Harvard after pulling off its major upset over New Mexico.  In both games the Wildcats have been over 55% from the floor and their leading scorer Mark Lyons has been on fire.  In two games Lyons has 50 points on 20-32 shooting.  Arizona is back to being a team that has Final Four hopes as they seem to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time.



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NCAA Tournament Day 1 Recap

Harvard gets first tournament win in school history

For those of you who didn't stay up until midnight you might have awoken up to your bracket being busted.  Harvard, a 14-seed, picked up their first ever NCAA tournament victory over 3-seed New Mexico 68-62.  Apparently, they not only have brilliant minds attending their school but ball players as well.  The Crimson was able to slow down the pace of the game and hit key 3-pointers, led by Laurent Rivard who went 5-9 from deep with 17 points.  New Mexico is known for its offensive struggles and it showed as Mountain West player of the year Kendall Williams went 1-6 from the floor for eight points.  The Lobos were discussed as a possible Final Four candidate but that's out the window now that Harvard knocked them out.

Marquette storms back over Davidson

3-seed Marquette looked to be the first casualty in this years tournament at the hands of 14-seed Davidson.  The Wildcats were up pretty much the entire game and held a 54-48 lead with 1:10 to play.  The Golden Eagles proceeded to hit three 3s to pull within one, 58-57, with 10 seconds left.  After the inbound, Davidson tried to play keep away while running the clock and ended up turning the ball over.  Marquette's Vander Blue then hits a driving layup with 1 second to spare as the 3-seed is able to survive.  Davidson had this game wrapped up if they would have just held onto the ball and got fouled.  They are the best free throw shooting in the country at 79.5% but only managed 14-22 for the game including a crucial miss in the last minute.  Marquette came up big though making their last three 3s after starting 1-12.  And ask St. John's if Blue's shot looked familiar.  They now move on to play Butler.

Southern pushes Gonzaga to the brink

Sooner (hopefully) or later we will see a 16-seed pull off the ultimate upset over a 1-seed.  Southern University, the champions of the SWAC, was in it all the way down to the wire against top seeded Gonzaga.  The Jaguars were only down three at the half and even tied the game at 56 on a Derrick Beltran jumper with 3:47 left.  The very next play, the Bulldogs Gary Bell Jr. hit a big 3 to take back the lead.  After two Beltran free throws, this time it was Kevin Pangos with an even bigger 3 to push the Zags lead to four with just under two minutes to play.  Southern would fail to score the rest of the game and lose 64-58.  The 6-point win in the closest in a 1 vs 16 game since 1990 when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT.  Most people weren't sold on Gonzaga being a top seed and this effort did nothing to silence their critics.

Oregon pulls off the first upset and looked good doing it

Oregon was not given much credit for winning the Pac-12 tournament as they received a 12-seed and faced 5-seed Oklahoma State.  The Ducks must have took offense to this because they jumped out to a 37-26 lead at halftime.  They balanced scoring as usual, with four guys in double figures led by Damyean Dotson with 17.  But it was Arsalan Kazemi who had 11 points and 17 rebounds that stood out for Oregon.  They also played great defense holding Marcus Smart and the Cowboys to only 40% from the field.  They play Saint Louis on Saturday which will be a tough test but the Ducks seem to have a chip on their shoulder so look for this to be a close one.

Cal gives payback to UNLV

Oregon isn't the only Pac-12 team that can pull off the famous 5-12 upset.  The Cal Bears took out UNLV, marking the first time two teams from the same conference won as 12-seeds.  This was a rematch from December, a game UNLV won 76-75, and again it came down to the last minute.  The Bears were led by Pac-12 POY Allen Crabbe who had 19 points and nine boards but it was reserve big man Robert Thurman who scored eight straight for Cal on four dunks.  The Bears will now try to use their "home court advantage" (they are player in San Jose) against Syracuse.

Louisville showed they are ready to make a run

The #1 team overall is Louisville and they did not want to leave any doubt in their game as they cruised to a 79-48 victory over 16-seed North Carolina A&T.  The pressure D that made the Cardinals the best defensive team in the country was in full force as they set a NCAA tournament record with 20 team steals.  Yes, 20, including eight by Russ Smith who also scored 23 points.  Louisville is said to have the hardest bracket, but also has the popular vote to win the title.  It's so easy to overlook teams (see Gonzaga) but with handling business they way they did, look for the Cards to be focused no matter who is their opponent.

VCU and Syracuse run opponents out of the gym

The VCU Rams are not sneaking up on anybody like they did back in 2011, but apparently the Akron Zips didn't get the memo.  VCU had an impressive showing with an 88-42 win.  Now I understand that Akron didn't have their starting point guard Alex Abreu (6 apg) but they were still MAC regular season and tournament champs.  Not having a PG is huge against a high pressure team like VCU, but the Rams were on point offensively as well.  They shot 54% from the field and 8-16 from downtown, 6-11 from Troy Daniels who scored 23.  That is exactly what VCU had going for them when they made their Final Four run in 2011, they pressed the heck out of you and were on fire from 3.  Michigan is up next, who has Trey Burke (the best assist/turnover ratio in the country), so it will be interesting to see how he handles the press.

Syracuse was another team that impressed as they crushed Montana 81-34.  Cuse was paced by Brandon Triche on offense as he put in 20.  But it was Jim Boeheim's patent 2-3 defense that shut down Montana from the outside as they only hit 4-31 (13%) from distance.  The Orange held the Grizzlies to 20% shooting overall and nobody on the team had more than five points.  Their next game against Cal will basically be a road game but if Syracuse can continue to lock up on D and be efficient on the offensive end this team is dangerous.



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East Region Breakdown

The Indiana Hoosiers are the top seed in the South region, the only 1-seed to not win their conference tournament.  IU was the preseason #1 and spent the most time atop the rankings.  The ACC champ Miami Hurricanes are a team that's proven itself throughout the season and should be expected to make some noise.  But other than that there isn't too much Indiana should fear.  Syracuse and Marquette are decent but not on the level of the top two seeds.  Of course we always have to keep an eye on everybody's favorite Cinderella, Butler, as Brad Stevens knows how to coach in March. 

Top Seeds
1. Indiana
2. Miami FL
3. Marquette
4. Syracuse

Sleepers
This region isn't very deep and picking a 5-seed doesn't really count as a sleeper but UNLV might surprise people.  When you have a player like freshman Anthony Bennett, who averages 16.2 points and 8 boards, your team can make a run.  Add senior point guard Anthony Marshall (10 ppg, 4 rpg, 6 apg) to the mix and that's a recipe for success in March.

First Round Upset Alerts
5 UNLV vs 12 California - So I mention a sleeper, then talk about them being upset in the first round.  This is a rematch of a game UNLV won 76-75 in Berkeley.  But aren't teams with higher seeds supposed to be playing closer to home?  Then how is this game being played in San Jose?  I understand that's not too far from Las Vegas either but that smells like some home cooking for Cal.  Both teams have NBA talent in the aforementioned Bennett for the Rebels and Alan Crabbe for the Bears.  Bennett will be a high lottery pick if he comes out this year.  Crabbe was the Pac-12 player of the year and puts up 18.7 points and 6 rebounds.

6 Butler vs 11 Bucknell - Yes, the upset specialists need to worry about getting upset.  The main reason is the Bison's Mike Muscala.  A 6'11 NBA ready center that posts 19 points and 11 rebounds a game.  Butler has huge wins over Indiana and Gonzaga this year but when going up against a player like Muscala if you don't come to play you'll be going home early.

7 Illinois vs 10 Colorado - Illinois started the season fast at 12-0 with wins over Butler and Gonzaga but had a hard time in the Big Ten only going 8-10 in conference play.  Brandon Paul can light it up but they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 41%.  Colorado isn't the best shooting team either (43%) but the combination of Spencer Dinwiddie (15.6 ppg) and Andre Roberson (11 ppg, 11 rpg) will be tough for the Illini to handle.  This could be one of the ugliest games of the first round if nobody is hitting their shots.

Possible Matchups 
Indiana vs Butler - Who wouldn't want to see this game again after the two played an overtime thriller back on December 15th that Butler won 88-86.  That was Indiana's first loss of the year and this would be great for the state of Indiana to start a new rivalry between these teams.

Miami FL vs Syracuse - Miami just took control of ACC basketball and Syracuse will be joining the conference next year.  What better way to welcome the Orange to the league than by meeting for a Final Four bid.

My Pick
It's either Indiana or Miami and it would be a great game.  Both teams matchup well in size while the Hoosiers are strong on offense and the Canes are strong on defense.  The difference is that Indiana has two national player of the year candidates in Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller.  I see Oladipo, the best all-around player in the country, leading this team to Atlanta and a Final Four birth.



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6 Teams That Have Something To Prove In Conference Tournaments

For teams on the bubble, conference tournaments are their last chance to state their case on why they should be invited to the NCAA tournament.  However, for Final Four contenders it's their time to show they aren't getting the respect they deserve.  A lot can be said about a team that wins their conference tourney and the momentum that it provides into the national tournament.  The 2011 Connecticut team is a prime example.  They lost four of their last six to end the season then proceeded to win four games in four days for the Big East title.  That led to a run for the national championship, thanks in large part to Kemba Walker.  These teams need to show us what they got during Championship Week.


ACC

Miami FL

The Hurricanes won the ACC regular season title for the first time since joining the league in 2004.  A month ago this team was ranked #2 in the nation and started 13-0 in the ACC with blowouts over Duke and North Carolina.  However, they lost three (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech) of their last five games and some doubters are starting to creep up on The U.  The biggest reason is all the love that Duke is getting since Ryan Kelly came back.  All of a sudden people are forgetting the fact that Miami routed the Blue Devils 90-63 at home.  Or that if Ryan Kelly didn't have the game of his life (36 pts, 7-9 3FG) Duke might not have got their 79-76 win at Cameron Indoor.  Miami has quality players in Shane Larkin, Kenny Kadji, and Durand Scott but has some head scratching losses.  However, when big games arrive Miami has came to play.  Along with huge wins over Duke, UNC, and NC State, they've also taken down Michigan State 67-59.  If they are able to win the ACC tournament and beat Duke again in the championship game, this team will be riding high into the big dance.


Big 12

Kansas State

Kansas State has always been the red-headed step child in the Big 12, mostly because of the dominance their rival Kansas has had over the league.  Even though they won its first ever conference title this year (albeit shared with Kansas), again this team is forgotten.  All the talk for the Big 12 making noise in the post season is for KU and Oklahoma State, nothing at all for the Wildcats.  It shows in the picks made by ESPN's college basketball writers for the conference tournament champion.  Baylor was even shown some love!  K-State is the Big 12's second highest ranked team in the top 25 but there's no faith in them.  It is understandable in the fact that they were only 2-5 against ranked teams.  One player to watch for is Rodney McGruder.  This is a guy that can carry a team in tournament play and will have to if the Wildcats want to succeed.  If there's a team on this list similar to the 2011 UConn team, this is the one.  A run in the Big 12 tournament with wins over Baylor/Oklahoma State and Kansas, anything is possible.


Big East

Marquette

Louisville and Georgetown shared a Big East title with another team can you guess who?  Syracuse?  No.  Pittsburgh?  No.  Connecticut?  No.  It was Marquette, yes, Marquette.  Their first title since a guy named Dwyane Wade won one in 2003 when they were still in Conference USA.  This team probably doesn't have one player that will make the NBA but it epitomizes the word TEAM.  How else can you beat the likes of Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh with inferior talent.  Another component is their coach, Buzz Williams.  I love coaches that are intense and this guy is crazy, but he knows how to get a team to play together.  They've won low scoring games (49-48), high scoring games (89-78) and three games in overtime.  With a share in the Big East and a 23-7 record, some how this team is still under the radar.  The Big East tournament is always grueling for any team.  If the Golden Eagles are able to make the championship game or better yet, win the title, the country will have no choice but to give them the respect they deserve.


Big Ten

Michigan

Oh Michigan.  How you frustrate me.  For the first time since the Fab Five in 1993, the Wolverines reached #1 in the country.  But they inexcusably lost at Penn State (winless in the Big Ten), Wisconsin's Ben Brust will forever be remembered with Evan Turner for hitting a half court shot, and the Indiana game reminds us of the importance of free throws.  The IU game not only lost Michigan a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but also dropped them to a fifth seed in the Big Ten tournament.  That's not a good thing because that means no bye and having to go through three of the top four teams instead of two.  The one thing Michigan has though is Trey Burke.  The B1G player of the year and currently still the front runner for national POY.  With a guy like him on your team you are never out of it.  The Wolverines are one of the best offensive teams in the country with four guys that can go off for 20+ on any given night.  Their problem is defense.  With no real lockdown defender on the perimeter or in the post, their best bet it to outscore the other team.  They have the talent to beat any team in the country, especially if they are hitting their 3's.  A Big Ten tournament title could lead to another trip to the Final Four, also a place the Wolverines haven't been since the Fab Five.  Oh wait, that never happened, right?


Pac-12

Arizona

The Wildcats were ranked as high as #4 in the country with wins over Florida, Miami, and San Diego State to start the year.  Now, they enter the Pac-12 tournament as the #4 seed behind UCLA, Cal, and Oregon.  Even with that, they are still recognized as the favorite according to Las Vegas books.  But, their national attention has slowly faded throughout the season.  This team has solid players in Xavier transfer Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, and Nick Johnson so they aren't short on talent.  Last year the Pac-12 only had one team enter the NCAA tournament (Colorado because of an automatic bid) so the nation is still not too keen on these west coast teams.  However, Arizona has shown us they can compete with high quality competition and win.  So, this is not a team that should be taken lightly.  The Wildcats lost to all of the top three teams during conference play  For Arizona to be looked at as a Final Four contender they need to run through the Pac-12 tournament win a vengeance.


Mountain West

New Mexico

Originally, I was going to talk about the SEC but since the Mountain West will have more teams in the NCAA tournament and is a better league top to bottom, they get the mention.  The MWC will likely get four, possibly five, teams in the big dance.  The cream of the crop are the Lobos and Steve Alford's squad is currently ranked #2 in RPI.  They won't beat you with any sort of flash, but will wear you down on defense and make you play at their pace.  The biggest sore spot on their record was a 55-34 loss at San Diego State.  To only score 34 points in a game is embarrassing, which is their problem.  They only shoot 42% from the field, ranking 222nd nationally.  However, Kendall Williams is a player that if he gets hot he's very difficult to stop.  In a game at Colorado State, Williams scored 46 points on 10-13 from three in a 91-82 victory.  As you can see New Mexico has the capability of putting up big numbers but they can also lay an egg.  Taking home a regular season and tournament championship in very good Mountain West conference will tell us that the Lobos are no joke.


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