NFL Week 16 Pick'em

Our second strong week in a row has a in position to finish the year with a little bit of extra money in our pockets.  The trip to Las Vegas was a little bit of a success but it was horrible watching my Detroit Lions lose on a 61-yard FG to the Ravens 18-16.  The Cowboys had their end of the year meltdown as well with the Packers rallying from 23-points down to win 37-36.  Arizona almost gave me a heart attack giving up 17 points in the final 3:12 to the Titans but pulled it out in OT 37-34.  And I can't forget to mention the day Jamaal Charles had combining for 215 yards and five touchdowns propelling many fantasy teams in the finals and bouncing two of my teams out of the playoffs.  We still haven't had a losing SuperContest week since Week 7 but we haven't gained much ground as we've been going back and forth between 3-2 and 2-2-1.  This week there are many teams that are trying to stay in the playoff hunt.  No teams in the NFC have clinched their division yet and three teams are still competing in the NFC North.  Time to get in the holiday spirit and get some extra cash for more presents!

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

PANTHERS -3 over Saints     Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.

RAMS -3.5 over Bucs     Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.

Browns +2 over JETS     Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.

Steelers +1 over PACKERS     Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.

Giants +9 over LIONS     Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.


Other NFL

Dolphins -3 over BILLS     Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.

REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys     Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.

EAGLES -3 over Bears     Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.

CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts     KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.

BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings     Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.

Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS     Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.

JAGUARS +4 over Titans     Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.

Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS     Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.

Raiders +10 over CHARGERS     Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.

Patriots PK over RAVENS     Ravens not as good as record shows.

49ERS -13.5 over Falcons     Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  39-32-4

Overall
Last Week:  11-5
Season Total:  114-102-7

NFL Week 15 Pick'em

After a solid 12-4 last week we crept back above .500 with three weeks left.  We watched the first week of snow games and I was surprised how many points were scored.  Calvin Johnson turned into the abominable snowman but the Lions couldn't stop LeSean McCoy as he rushed for an Eagles franchise record 217 yards and Philly won 34-20 thanks to 28 fourth quarter points.  In the big game of the week, San Francisco squeaked by Seattle 19-17.  In the wildest finishes, New England scored 13 points in the final 1:01 with the help of an onside kick and a Billy Cundiff missed last second 58-yard field goal to edge the Browns.  Also, after sleep walking through most of the game the Vikings and Ravens came alive in the final 2:05 scoring five combined touchdowns, but Baltimore had the last laugh with a Marlon Brown TD reception for the 29-26 win.  I'm really excited for this week as I'll be in Las Vegas for the games.  Hopefully I'll be able to turn these picks into some real money!

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS     Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.

COLTS -5.5 over Texans     Houston doesn't care anymore.

JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills     Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.

Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS      Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.

Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS     KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.


Other NFL

Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS     Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.

Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS     Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.

49ers -5.5 over BUCS     SF rides momentum of Seattle win.

RAMS +5.5 over Saints     Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.

GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks     Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.

Bears PK over BROWNS     Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.

Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS     No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.

PANTHERS -11 over Jets     Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.

Packers +7 over COWBOYS     It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.

STEELERS +3 over Bengals     I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.

Ravens +6 over LIONS     6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  36-30-4

Overall
Last Week:  12-4
Season Total:  103-97-7

NFL Week 14 Pick'em

After a 4-11-1 record last week, for the first time all year we are under .500 overall.  Not a good feeling.  The SuperContest is still decent as we split again at 2-2-1.  We saw some teams flex their muscle as Denver overcame an early deficit to take down the Chiefs for the second time in three weeks and Seattle proved they are the team to beat in the NFC, blowing out the Saints 34-7.  We also saw Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin, not only affect the game but also the betting outcome.  Tomlin was clearly where he shouldn't be on the field, you can tell he knew what he was doing by his wry smile after the play.  He ended up getting in the way of Jacoby Jones, who would have been gone for a touchdown on a punt return.  Baltimore had to settle for a field goal and missed covering by one point.  This week we have two games that feature division rivals when New Orleans hosts Carolina and Seattle travels to San Francisco.  These are going to be the hardest to call but let's get into it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

JAGUARS +3 over Texans     Jags playing better and are at home in primetime.

Chiefs -3 over REDSKINS     KC defense too good for RG3.

STEELERS -3 over Dolphins     Big Ben is putting up points, while D coming around.

Titans +12 over BRONCOS     Too cold for Peyton, CJ2K keeps it close.

CHARGERS -3 over Giants     I have no faith in Eli on the road.


Other NFL

Vikings +7 over RAVENS     Baltimore hasn't blown too many teams out this year.

PATRIOTS -10 over Browns     Browns can't keep up with Brady.

Raiders +3 over JETS     NYJ have hit a nasty wall since beating Saints.

BENGALS -6.5 over Colts     Red Rocket goes off against bad D.

SAINTS -3 over Panthers     Saints find offense at home to stop Panthers win streak.

EAGLES -3 over Lions     Foles has offense on point, Stafford throwing too many INT's.

BUCS -2.5 over Bills     Buffalo struggles on the road, 1-4 ATS.

CARDINALS -6.5 over Rams     Arizona at home and Palmer finally looks good.

Seahawks +3 over 49ERS     Seattle rides momentum from stomping of Saints.

Falcons +3 over PACKERS     Green Bay 0-5 ATS since Rodgers went out.

BEARS PK over Cowboys     McCown clicking with Jeffery, let's see if defense shows up.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  33-28-4

Overall
Last Week:  4-11-1
Season Total:  91-93-7

NFL Week 13 Pick'em

Well, it feels good to get rid of that losing streak.  We had a nice 9-5 overall week but the SuperContest picks could have been better than 3-2 (thanks a lot Panthers).  The New England Patriots had a huge comeback win over the Denver Broncos 34-31 in OT.  Tom Brady's offense was lost in the first half falling behind 24-0.  However, he rallied his team to score 31 straight points.  But, it was a muffed punt in overtime that set up the Patriots for the game winning field goal.  This wasn't the only game to go into OT either as Minnesota and Green Bay played to a tie.  This was the second tie in two years.  Each team scored a field goal on their first possession of the extra time but couldn't score again.  I think they need to get rid of ties in the NFL altogether but a debate for another time.  We'll stick with our shorter breakdowns again this week because we all know that gamblers are superstitious and like to stay with what works.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

EAGLES -3 over Cardinals     Foles has Eagles hot and coming off bye.

CHARGERS -1 over Bengals     Chargers solid at home, Bengals struggle on the road.

VIKINGS PK over Bears     Bears can't stop run, Peterson runs wild

BILLS -3 over Falcons     Atlanta having all kinds of trouble.

Jaguars +7 over BROWNS     Jags playing better and Weedon back as starter for Browns.


Other NFL

Packers +6.5 over LIONS     Remember what happened last time Matt Flynn started against Detroit?

Raiders +9.5 over COWBOYS     Raiders control pace with Jennings ground game.

RAVENS -3 over Steelers     Steelers playing well but Ravens tough at home.

Titans +4 over COLTS     Titans 5-0 ATS away, Colts reeling.

CHIEFS +4.5 over Broncos     KC has been waiting to get revenge.

Bucs +8 over PANTHERS     Bucs on 3 game win streak, stay within two scores.

JETS -1.5 over Dolphins     Can't figure out Jets, let's try'em again.

49ERS -8 over Rams     SF Defense too much for Rams possibly without Zac Stacy.

Patriots -7.5 over TEXANS     Texans 0-6 ATS at home, biggest disappointment in NFL.

REDSKINS +1 over Giants     Both teams suck, go with who's at home.

Saints +5.5 over SEAHAWKS     Brees and offense will keep it close.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  31-26-3

Overall
Last Week:  9-5
Season Total:  87-82-6

NFL Week 12 Pick'em

This is not good.  We can't seem to shake this funk and get any traction.  We continue to barely hold our heads above water in the SuperContest.  But, we are still within striking distance of a decent year and with a few good weeks to end the season we could end up with some profit.  In the big game last week the Broncos beat the undefeated Chiefs 27-17.  This week all eyes will be on Denver again when they head to New England.  I also think I need to change things up this week as we'll have all games with ten words or less breakdowns.  Maybe that will bring us home the goods.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Bucs +9 over LIONS     Glennon has been getting better each week.

CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers     KC picks themselves back up after first loss.

RAMS -1.5 over Bears     Rams off bye, Cutler still out.

Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS     Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts     Don't sleep on the Cards at home.


Other NFL in 10 or less

FALCONS +7.5 over Saints     I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.

Jaguars +10 over TEXANS     Guess I'll take the points if I have to.

Vikings +4 over PACKERS     Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.

BROWNS -2 over Steelers     Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.

RAVENS -3.5 over Jets     Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.

RAIDERS +1 over Titans     Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.

GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys     Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.

PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos     Remember Patriots-Saints?  Same thing here.

49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS     Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  28-24-3

Overall
Last Week:  5-8-2
Season Total:  78-77-6

NFL Week 11 Pick'em

We are officially in danger mode as we have entered to red in both the SuperContest and overall.  Because of sportsbooks taking what is known as "juice" a bettor must win around 54% to make a profit.  Right now we are exactly at 52% for the SuperContest and 50% overall.  Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season, on the road in Tennessee.  A game I'm sure knocked a lot of people out of their survival pools.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also got their first win on Monday night against a Miami Dolphins team that is still all sorts of messed up.  The big game on the slate this week is the Denver Broncos hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.  Nobody expected KC to be the lone undefeated team left but we'll see what they, as this defense, are made of on Sunday night.  Let's get it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BUCS -1 over Falcons

Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late.  In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception.  Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year.  But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three.  The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury.  Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs.  This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.

Jets -1 over BILLS

I am finally coming around on the Jets.  They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year.  NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS.  Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson.  The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year.  Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?

EAGLES -5 over Redskins

The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year.  Yes, I said HOME games.  This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg.  Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago.  He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense.  Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.

Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS

San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks.  They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games.  Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins.  Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six.  Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks.  San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins.  This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.

SAINTS -3 over 49ers

I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home.  If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner.  Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome.  The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record.  Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever.  He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would.  All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.

Other NFL in 10 or less

Colts -3 over TITANS    Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.

Lions -2.5 over STEELERS     Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.

BEARS -3 over Ravens     Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.

Browns +5.5 over BENGALS     Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.

TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders     Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.

JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals     Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.

SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings     Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.

GIANTS -4 over Packers     GB has issues without Rodgers.

Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS     KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.

Patriots +3 over PANTHERS     Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  26-22-2

Overall
Last Week:  5-8-1
Season Total:  73-69-4

NFL Week 10 Pick'em

As we make the turn for the second half of the season we are barely keeping our heads above water.  Sitting at 24-20-1 for the SuperContest and 68-61-3 overall we are in the positive but not by much.  We had some bad luck last week with the Chargers not being able to punch it in from the one-yard line then subsequently losing to the Redskins in OT.  But I can't complain too much as we were on the right side of luck and Andrew Luck led the Colts on a huge comeback against the Texans with a perfect two-point conversion pass late to cover the 2.5 spread.  This week all eyes will be on our Detroit Lions as they head to Chicago for a battle of first place in the NFC North.  With Aaron Rodgers getting hurt Monday night against the Bears, the division is ripe for Detroit or Chicago to take control for a playoff push.  Gotta be quick with this one.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

PACKERS +1 over Eagles

This game screams for us to take Philly.  Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury.  But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy.  They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau.  Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.

Lions +2 over BEARS

Are the Lions for real this year?  This will be a huge test to find out if they really are.  Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards.  Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting.  Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.

49ERS -5.5 over Panthers

Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense.  The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average.  However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record.  The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own.  This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick.  San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.

CARDINALS -3 over Texans

Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter.  The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery.  They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts.  This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher.  The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS.  They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.

BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins

Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win.  The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24.  The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now.  This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field.  That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night.  Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.


Other NFL in 10 or less

VIKINGS +1 over Redskins     Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.

TITANS -12 over Jaguars     Jags on the road is not a good sign.

Bills +3 over STEELERS     Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.

Raiders +7 over GIANTS     Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.

COLTS -7.5 over Rams     Young Rams will be different team on the road.

FALCONS +4 over Seahawks     Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.

Bengals +1 over RAVENS     Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home

Broncos -7 over CHARGERS     Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.

Cowboys +6 over SAINTS     Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.



SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  24-20-1

Overall
Last Week:  6-7
Season Total:  68-61-3

2013 NFL Midseason Totals

With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out.  The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets.  They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line.  We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year.  But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid.  There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.

2013 NFL Season Totals	Line	Projected	Actual
Arizona Cardinals	5.5 (o -180)	6	4
Atlanta Falcons	9.5 (o -145)	10	2
Baltimore Ravens	8.5 (o +115)	9	3
Buffalo Bills	6 (u -120)	4	3
Carolina Panthers	7.5 (u +115)	6	5
Chicago Bears	8.5 (u +120)	7	5
Cincinnati Bengals	8.5 (o -200)	9	6
Cleveland Browns	6.5 (u +135)	5	4
Dallas Cowboys	8.5 (u +110)	8	5
Denver Broncos	12	12	7
Detroit Lions	8.5 (u -115)	7	5
Green Bay Packers	10.5 (o -105)	11	5
Houston Texans	10.5 (o -110)	12	2
Indianapolis Colts	8.5 (u -115)	7	6
Jacksonville Jaguars	5 (u -130)	4	0
Kansas City Chiefs	7.5 (o -175)	8	9
Miami Dolphins	7.5 (u +125)	6	4
Minnesota Vikings	7 (u -125)	6	2
New England Patriots	11 (o +110)	12	7
New Orleans Saints	9.5 (u +110)	9	6
New York Giants	8.5 (u even)	8	2
New York Jets	6 (u -170)	4	5
Oakland Raiders	5 (u -185)	3	3
Philadelphia Eagles	7.5 (u -130)	6	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.5 (o +140)	10	2
San Diego Chargers	7.5 (u -155)	5	4
San Francisco 49ers	11	11	6
Seattle Seahawks	10.5 (o -130)	13	8
St Louis Rams	7.5 (u -110)	5	3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.5 (u +105)	6	0
Tennessee Titans	6.5 (u -110)	6	4
Washington Redskins	8.5 (u -110)	8	3

2013-14 NBA Western Conference Preview

The Western Conference has a lot of teams to keep an eye on and any one of them has an opportunity to make it to the NBA Finals.  Just like the East, there are big name players that will impact new teams like the Houston Rockets who added Dwight Howard and the Golden State Warriors bringing in Andre Iguodala.  Russell Westbrook will miss some time for the Oklahoma City Thunder while recovering from knee surgery, so it will be interesting to see if he'll be 100% when he returns.  The Los Angeles Clippers didn't make any roster changes but did trade for a head coach as Doc Rivers will try to lead this talented bunch to the finals.  Speaking of Los Angeles, the Lakers will likely miss the playoffs as Kobe Bryant will be out an extended amount of time after tearing his Achilles.  As for the San Antonio Spurs, well, they are still the Spurs.

Western Conference Contenders

San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs are the NBA version of the New England Patriots.  They are the one team that you can never count out even if their superstars are another year older.  The core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and head coach Gregg Popovich will always be a title contender for as long as they are together.  However, last year we saw the emergence of two key younger players in Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green.  Both played huge roles in the Spurs making the NBA Finals and pushing the Miami Heat to a game 7.  I talked about Leonard in my 2013-14 NBA Awards Predictions as a possible winner of the Most Improved award.  A lot of this rests on the shoulders of Manu Ginobili because if Coach Pop cuts his minutes down because of a poor 2012-13 season, Leonard will be the beneficiary.  Danny Green made a splash in the playoffs, especially in the finals, with his three-point shooting.  If he can continue that pace into this season we can expect to see the Spurs playing for another title.

Houston Rockets - The most intriguing team in the Western Conference has to be the Houston Rockets.  Last year they added James Harden in a blockbuster trade with Oklahoma City and this year they grabbed Dwight Howard in free agency.  Harden has quickly turned himself into the best shooting guard in the league after one year of starting.  The question now is, which Dwight Howard will they get?  The early Orland Magic Howard that dominanted the game and had fun doing it? Or, the late Magic and Los Angeles Lakers Howard that complained about his coach and situation on the court?  I think it will be the former.  Howard seems to be excited to join a player like Harden and will get back to being a dominant force in the paint.  One thing to watch is how much head coach Kevin McHale will use the twin towers of Howard and 7-footer Omer Asik.  Asik was a pleasant surprise averaging 10.1 points and 11.7 boards a year ago but was a little hesitant to invite Howard to Houston as he thought his minutes might get reduced.  I think McHale is a great coach to have in this situation because he formed his own version of twin towers when he played in Boston with fellow hall of famer Robert Parish.  One secret to this team's success is swingman Chandler Parsons.  Parsons is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He averaged 15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and adds another shooter to floor hitting two triples a game last year.  If Howard and Harden can co-exist as superstars in H-town they have the right role players to get this team to the Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder - When Russell Westbrook went down in the playoffs a year ago I was amazed how much this team struggled, especially Kevin Durant.  The Thunder were 3-6 without Westbrook, and we saw Durant's points and field goal attempts go up while all of his shooting percentages went way down.  The cause of this was he started to force things and take a lot of bad shots.  Once Westbrook gets back into the action we'll have to see if his explosiveness will still be there.  He is one of the best athletes in the league and relies on that athleticism to outplay his opponents.  For this team to be great they need Westbrook, unless they get more out of Serge Ibaka or if Jeremy Lamb steps into a scoring role.  Durant showed us in the playoffs he can't do it himself and this team lacks scoring depth.  If Westbrook is slowed down by his knee injury, OKC might have a difficult time in a competitive Western Conference.

Los Angeles Clippers - Rarely do you see a team trade for a coach but that's exactly what the Clippers did to get Doc Rivers.  They felt they had the right talent, but Vinny Del Negro was not the right man.  It's tough to argue that when you have the best point guard in the NBA with Chris Paul and a great young, athletic front court in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan but fail to make a deep run in the playoffs.  We know what to expect from Paul.  He's always among the league leaders in assists and steals, as well as a clutch performer.  Griffin has seen his points and rebounds drop consistently over his first three years with the Clips but that isn't a bad thing because they've been winning.  He should be a 20 point, 10 rebound guy year in and year out as he continues to improve his offensive game.  Jordan is a great finisher around the rim, just ask Brandon Knight, but should be a better rebounder.  The "other guys" are led by Jamal Crawford, who is one of the best sixth men in the league and a great scorer.  J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley come in and add excellent outside shooting to the starting lineup.  The Clippers are a popular pick by many experts to make the NBA Finals but they need to find a way to win in the playoffs as they haven't made it past the conference semis yet.

Golden State Warriors - Stephen Curry is no question the best three-point shooter in the NBA.  For hard evidence check out these graphs on a Deadspin Regressing article.  Basically it says nobody else comes close to Steph from beyond the arc.  Last year he set the record for made three-pointers in a single season with 272 and don't be surprised if he doesn't try to better that this year.  His back court mate Klay Thompson isn't too bad either from downtown.  Thompson likes to launch it as well and if improves on a his 40% from deep a year ago this could be the most deadly back court tandem ever.  Swingman Andre Iguodala, who came over after one year with the Denver Nuggets, will provide a great perimeter defender and a guy that can do it all.  Iguodala is a player that thrives as a third or fourth option on a team.  He's a decent scorer that can distribute and rebound.  Down low, David Lee is capable of 20-10 but doesn't play much defense and Andrew Bogut has a hard time staying healthy.  Their problem is depth.  After losing bench leader Jarret Jack to the Cavs in free agency, they are left with Harrison Barnes to provide scoring for the second unit.  There were able to make the playoffs and beat the Nuggets in the first round a year ago.  In order to make it further they need to play better defense and get some production from their bench.

Memphis Grizzlies - Memphis made the Western Conference Finals last year after disposing of the Clippers in six and the Thunder in five.  They are known as one of the best defensive teams in the league and have the reigning defensive player of the year in Marc Gasol.  Their biggest difference was getting rid of head coach Lionel Hollins and replacing him with first year man David Joerger.  Joerger was an assistant with the team so you hope he still installs the same type of defense that Hollins had as that's what won them most of their games.  Along with Gasol, Zach Randolph has been producing less the past three seasons.  Look for point guard Mike Conley to finally take over as leading scorer, building off a solid postseason performance.  Tony Allen remains one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and, along with Gasol, will make sure the Grizzlies bring the intensity on that end of the court night in and night out.  I would say Memphis has the longest shot to go all the way, but they almost did it a year ago and have the entire team back.

Western Conference Playoff Teams

1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Houston Rockets
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Golden State Warriors
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Dallas Mavericks

NFL Week 9 Pick'em

Finally off the schneid!  After three straight losing weeks we managed to go 8-5.  We lost the pick, but I have to start by talking about the amazing performance by the Detroit Lions and Calvin Johnson.  In an instant classic with the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions went 80 yards in 50 seconds with no timeouts to edge the Cowboys 31-30.  Johnson was the big story finishing with 329 yards, seven yards shy of an NFL record, and one touchdown.  But let's not forget about the job Matthew Stafford did all game either.  He was especially great on the final drive hitting Kris Durham with pinpoint precision down the left sideline for 40 yards and faking out everyone as he sneaked the ball over the goal line instead spiking it to stop the clock.  But enough about last week, let's go for two in a row and start a new winning streak.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Titans -2.5 over RAMS

Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings.  Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year.  Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye.  Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers.  Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night.  Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts.  The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.

RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries.  Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out.  This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's.  But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole.  Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.

BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens

This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals.  They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way.  The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year.  Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC.  As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City.  I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.

Chargers PK over REDSKINS

RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago.  Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions.  San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games.  Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past.  The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them.  Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.

Colts -2.5 over TEXANS

The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.  Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston.  This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver.  Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year.  They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub.  The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury.  Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of.  This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.


Other NFL in 10 or less

DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals     Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.

PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons     Two teams going in opposite directions.

COWBOYS -10 over Vikings     Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.

Saints -6.5 over JETS     Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.

BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs     Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.

SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs     Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.

Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS     Steelers D should keep this one close.

Bears +11 over PACKERS     Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  21-18-1

Overall
Last Week:  8-5
Season Total:  62-54-3

2013-14 NBA Eastern Conference Preview

The NBA is back so let's take a quick look around the Eastern Conference.  There's a lot of new faces in new places that will definitely mix things up from a year ago.  Derrick Rose is back after taking a year off to recover from ACL surgery, the Brooklyn Nets brought in two future hall of famers in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, while the Detroit Pistons have added Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings.  However, the East is basically a four team race.  The one thing we know is that everybody will again be chasing the Miami Heat.

Eastern Conference Contenders

Miami Heat - Obviously we have to start with the Heat.  Coming off of two straight NBA Championships and LeBron James' two consecutive NBA MVP's, the road to the title goes through Miami.  A big question is are they still hungry enough to get their third straight ring?  At the end of last season Dwyane Wade was struggling with injuries and another year on his rusty knees might slow him down even more.  Chris Bosh has been the third wheel of the "Big Three" but if he's able to take some of the load off Wade this team could be just as strong as ever.  The Heat lost playoff hero Mike Miller but added former #2 overall pick Michael Beasley and former #1 overall pick Greg Oden.  Both are still young (24 and 25 respectively) but who knows how much they have left to offer.  Beasley averaged a career worst 10.1 points a season ago on a bad Phoenix team and in my opinion has too many personal issues to deal with before he can become a solid contributor again.  Oden on the other hand was hit with the curse of the Portland big man.  Just like Sam Bowie and Bill Walton, Oden suffered a serious leg injury that made him miss the last three seasons.  Oden's potential all depends on his health.  If he's healthy he will be a great asset to this team, especially if he can move Bosh to his more natural position of power forward.

Indiana Pacers - The Pacers were one game away from shocking the world and reaching the NBA Finals a year ago.  Indiana took the Heat to a game seven as Paul George had a national coming out party as he went head-to-head with LBJ and held his own for most of the series.  That performance helped George win the most improved award and put the Indiana Pacers as team that could take down Miami.  Along with George, Roy Hibbert also showed the world what he can do in the playoffs.  Hibbert seemed to plateau for three years hovering around 12 points and eight rebounds, but in the playoffs he ratcheted up his intensity and aggressiveness.  The 7'2 center averaged 17 and 10 in the postseason including leading the Pacers in scoring and rebounding against the Heat with 22 points and 10 boards.  If Hibbert brings that same aggression for an entire season he could challenge Dwight Howard for best center in the league.  One addition the Pacers made was a big one when they brought in Luis Scola.  This is a guy that shares the same tough mentality the Pacers do and can give them quality minutes off the bench to spell Hibbert and David West.

Chicago Bulls - The last time Derrick Rose played a regular season he led the Bulls to the best record in the NBA for the second year in a row.  He took off last year to fully recover from his ACL tear in the 2012 playoffs and Chicago finished fifth in the East.  A lot of NBA fans, especially ones in Chicago, questioned why Rose took so long to return to action.  Especially after seeing Adrian Peterson suffer the same injury and become the NFL MVP.  But, it might have been the best thing Rose could have done.  We have to remember he's still on 25 and if he could have played last year he would have had a higher risk of re-injuring himself.  Now that he's had more than a year to fully recover, the Bulls are primed to take back that top spot in the NBA.  Aside from Rose, the difference maker will be third-year man Jimmy Butler.  In the latter half of last year he became a legit scorer and defender for the Bulls.  We know what they'll get out of Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng, but if Butler continues to improve that will give Chicago one of the best starting lineups in the league.  The spark plug for the Bull is Noah, however, he is struggling with a groin injury right now after being less than 100% for last year's playoffs with plantar fasciitis.  With this team back at full strength they could be the ones to dethrone the defending champs.

Brooklyn Nets - In the 2012 offseason Brooklyn made a move to acquire Joe Johnson.  This offseason they made an even bigger one getting Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jason Terry from the Boston Celtics.  I never thought I'd ever see Pierce play for another team after giving 15 years to Boston but they sent him away.  Another key player added was Andrei Kirilenko.  He's never going to wow you on the court but he can fill a stat sheet and play great defense.  Add these four guys to a team with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and the previously mentioned Johnson and you have a roster with 36 all-star and 16 all-NBA selections combined.  That's a pretty decent resume.  The problem the Nets will run into is the same problem that has plagued teams loaded with talent.  There's only one ball and one if not two of these stars will need to take one a smaller role than they are used to.  Some guys can't handle that and become a detriment to their team.  It might take a month or two for this team to get a feel for how each other plays but if they start clicking Brooklyn will be a team to watch out for come playoff time.

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams

1. Miami Heat
2. Indiana Pacers
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Brooklyn Nets
5. New York Knicks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Washington Wizards

2013-14 NBA Awards Predictions

Here's a quick look at my predictions for the 2013-14 NBA Awards

Rookie Of The Year - Victor Oladipo

Oladipo was the second overall pick in this years draft and has the one trait that translates the easiest from college to pro ball...defense.  Unless you were a prolific scorer in college it usually takes a year or two to be able to put up numbers in the NBA, but defense is all about effort.  And every coach will always leave a guy on the court if he plays good D.  Also, remember this is a guy that shot 60% from the field and 44% from three-point range his last year at Indiana so he has the ability to score.  With him being on a bad Orlando Magic team he will find a spot in the starting lineup early and continue to produce throughout the season.

Second Place: Michael Carter-Williams
 

Most Improved - Kawhi Leonard

We knew Leonard was a key part of the San Antonio Spurs but it wasn't until the playoffs, particularly the NBA Finals, when we saw how important he actually is to this team.  In the Finals, he put up 14 points and 11 boards all while trying to contain LeBron James.  With the Spurs "Big Three" getting older, especially Manu Ginobili, Leonard will be asked to continue to produce more often.  He is the obvious predecessor to take over the reins of a well-rounded Spurs team.  Just like Paul George transformed into a superstar a year ago for the Pacers, we will see the same from Kawhi this year.

Second Place: Andre Drummond


Sixth Man - Jamal Crawford

Is there a better pure scorer that comes off the bench than Jamal Crawford?  No.  It's amazing to watch this guy handle the ball and tear apart second units.  He's 33 years old and in his 14th season but can still put up points with the best of them.  He doesn't give you much on the defensive end and that has probably kept him from winning more sixth man awards, but this year he will add to his 2010 honors. 

Second Place: J.R. Smith


Coach Of The Year - Kevin McHale

If Kevin McHale is able to control the emotions of Dwight Howard this team has the ability to challenge for the Western Conference title.  Houston has all the tools in their starting lineup to produce and it's all up to the coach to harness those efforts.  McHale had the Rockets scoring 106 points per game a season ago, good for second in the NBA.  With the presence of Howard they have the potential to be a good defensive team as well.

Second Place: Mark Jackson


Defensive Player Of The Year - Roy Hibbert

One of the few true center's in the NBA showed his growth in the 2012-13 playoffs and will turn into a dominant force for the 2013-14 campaign.  His blocks have gone up every year as pro and he finished with 2.6 last season.  I expect his numbers to rise in all aspects of his game and if he gets to 12 boards and three blocks per game he'll be a lock for this award.

Second Place: Dwight Howard


Most Valuable Player - LeBron James

It's hard to pick anybody else.  LeBron James has won the last two MVP awards because his game is still improving.  In three years with the Heat his shooting percentages, rebounds and assists have increased while his turnovers have decreased.  Kevin Durant is right on his heels after posting the elusive 50-40-90 (FG%, 3P%, FT%) season but still has a little work to do to surpass James.  LBJ tries to improve a different aspect of his game each offseason and it will be interesting to see what he has in store for us in the 2013-14 season.

Second Place: Kevin Durant

NFL Week 8 Pick'em

Well, it looks like we're going the wrong way.  Even the SuperContest numbers took a big hit going 1-4.  All I can say is I'm glad I'm not using real money.  The Bears, Lions and Chiefs all were games that didn't go our way at the end and could have made our final numbers look a little different if they did.  Not only did our picks go down last week, but so did many key players (Doug Martin and Reggie Wayne to name a few).  Nonetheless, on to Week 8!  A lot of big numbers this week as 10 of the 13 games are hovering around a touchdown or more.  We have another game being played in London, this time it's San Francisco and Jacksonville.  The NFL really gave them some gems to watch this year.  And other than the Cowboys-Lions, there isn't one game I will make a point to watch this weekend.  But, we still have to watch our fantasy players and make some picks.  So, here we go.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS

No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay.  I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though.  But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance.  He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way.  Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson.  Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine.  Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help.  In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.

RAIDERS +3 over Steelers

Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore.  Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games.  The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole.  Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's.  These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired.  I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.

Panthers -6 over BUCS

Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game.  The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game.  Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm.  The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles.  Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely.  Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield.  Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's.  But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown.  Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.

Seahawks -11 over RAMS

Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team.  Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL.  They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011.  This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro.  The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game.  Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers.  Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.

PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins

I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in.  But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook.  I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough.  But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski.  Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards.  Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers.  Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year.  Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of.  Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.


Other NFL in 10 or less

49ers -16.5 over Jaguars     Not taking the Jags again until they cover.

LIONS -3 over Cowboys     No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.

Giants +6 over EAGLES     First win inspires Giants to keep it close.

CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns     Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.

Bills +12 over SAINTS     Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.

BENGALS -6.5 over Jets     Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.

BRONCOS -13 over Redskins     Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.

Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS     Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.


SuperContest
Last Week:  1-4
Season Total:  18-16-1

Overall
Last Week:  6-9
Season Total:  54-49-3

NFL Week 7 Pick'em

We tried to get back on track but we couldn't as we had our second losing week in a row.  Minnesota was torched at home as the whole team seemed to be affected by the tragic loss of Adrian Peterson's son and the Texans were also blown out at home with no excuse by the Rams 38-13.  On a good note, the Jaguars finally got their first cover against Denver in the biggest spread in history.  This week all eyes are on Peyton Manning making his return to Indianapolis to face the Colts.  Colts owner Jim Irsay has already stirred the pot saying Peyton didn't win enough rings for the franchise.  Manning had no comment for a rebuttal and I assume he will let his play do the talking.  Let's get on with it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS -6 over Texans

I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week.  Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second.  They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub.  The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game.  The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.

Bears PK over REDSKINS

Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious.  He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins.  For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks.  The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.

LIONS -2.5 over Bengals

Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards.  That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria.  The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1.  The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays.  They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012.  DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4).  Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.

GIANTS -3 over Vikings

The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week.  Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column.  I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong.  The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now.  As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son.  They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game.  The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.

JAGUARS +8 over Chargers

Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos.  This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town.  Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games.  Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD.  San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce.  The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game.  Take the home-dog in this one.


Other NFL in 10 or less

CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks     Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.

Patriots -4 over JETS     Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.

Bills +8 over DOLPHINS     Miami won't score enough to cover 8.

EAGLES -3 over Cowboys     Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.

PANTHERS -6 over Rams     Cam made me a believer last week.

FALCONS -7 over Bucs     Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.

49ers -4 over TITANS     SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.

PACKERS -10 over Browns     Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.

Ravens +2 over STEELERS     Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.

Broncos -6.5 over COLTS     Peyton purposely runs up the score.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-3
Season Total:  17-12-1

Overall
Last Week:  7-8
Season Total:  48-40-3

NFL Week 6 Pick'em

After our best week, we follow that up with our worst.  But, our SuperContest picks were great going 4-1.  There were some big story lines as well as Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a shootout for the ages, the Jets had a two-minute comeback, while Julio Jones is lost for the year, and two unbeaten teams went down.  This week everybody is talking about the largest spread in NFL history.  The Denver Broncos opened as a 28-point favorite at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  I was shocked in Week 3 when the Seahawks were almost a 20-point favorite against the Jags, but this is crazy.  College football has bigger numbers than this all the time (every Oregon game), but we just don't see spreads like this in the NFL.  Other than that there aren't too many good games outside of New Orleans-New England and Washington-Dallas.  So, let's improve on last week's poor performance.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Eagles -1.5 over BUCS

Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye.  All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles.  Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right.  Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over.  He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week.  Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense.  He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game.  Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.

VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers

A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings.  Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27.  Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs).  Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week.  Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year.  Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either.  Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down.  Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.

Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS

Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm.  He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing.  Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense.  But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles.  This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.

PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints

Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week.  Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB.  The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver.  On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year.  Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints.  It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios.  And that's why I think they will win.  The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.

SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans

Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB.  Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty.  Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home.  This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers.  The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.


Other NFL in 10 or less

Giants +7.5 over BEARS     Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?

RAVENS +2.5 over Packers     Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.

BROWNS +3 over Lions     Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.

TEXANS -7.5 over Rams     Schaub comes through with his job on the line.

JETS -1.5 over Steelers     Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.

BILLS +7 over Bengals     Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.

Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS     Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.

49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals     SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.

Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS     Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.

Colts -2 over CHARGERS     Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.


SuperContest
Last Week:  4-1
Season Total:  15-9-1

Overall
Last Week:  6-8
Season Total:  41-32-3

NFL Week 5 Pick'em

The first quarter of the season is over and we finished on our best week.  We were 11-3-1 on the day and 3-1-1 in the SuperContest.  The Seahawks and Cardinals had huge 4th quarter comebacks to avoid losses against Houston and Tampa Bay, but other than that most of our wins went surprisingly smooth.  As for the home-dogs I mentioned last week, they went 4-3 and continued their winning ways.  This week we have a lot of big name matchups which will make for some tough selections but hopefully we'll have another good week.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BROWNS -3.5 over Bills

My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season.  It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami.  It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota.  Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won.  This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover.  The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run.  Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.

Chiefs -3 over TITANS

The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype.  Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS).  But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle.  KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18.  Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot.  It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.

CARDINALS +2 over Panthers

Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that.  Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm.  And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg).  Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be.  But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road.  That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team.  The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.

Saints PK over BEARS

In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears.  New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins.  This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards.  But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games.  Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game.  However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler.  With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired.  Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler.  Take the better QB in this PICK game.

GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles

This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question.  The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively.  New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7.  But yes, I'm still picking them.  The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5.  All they need is some home cooking to get their first win.  And what better way to do it than against a rival.  Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable.  Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game.  We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.


Other NFL in 10 or less

DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens     Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.

Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS     Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.

Patriots +2 over BENGALS     Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
                                                   back.

COLTS +3 over Seahawks     Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.

Lions +7 over PACKERS     Big number for high scoring rivals.

RAIDERS +4 over Chargers     Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.

Broncos -7 over COWBOYS     Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
                                                    Julius Thomas.

Texans +6.5 over 49ERS     Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.

FALCONS -10 over Jets     Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.

SuperContest
Last Week:  3-1-1
Season Total:  11-8-1

Overall
Last Week:  11-3-1
Season Total:  35-24-3

NFL Week 4 Pick'em

Well that was painful.  After two winning weeks in the SuperContest I totally bombed and went 1-4.  I was completely wrong about the Vikings-Browns game as the Vikings are a lot worse than I expected and Josh Gordon's return to the Browns was a big difference for that team, even without T-Rich.  Also, I thought I had the Packers game wrapped up until a fumble return for a touchdown.  One thing I'm learning as I pick every game and take notes is how great home field advantage is in the NFL.  We all know that playing at home helps but last week the home team went 10-5-1 ATS.  And for the season, home underdogs are 8-4.  That's a big number considering that home-dogs usually occur when top ten teams are visitors.  This week we have 7 home-dogs (excluding the Steelers-Vikings being played in London) so we will get an even better feel for the home field advantage lesser teams receive against better opponents.  Hopefully Week 4 goes a little smoother with that in mind.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS -4 over Giants

Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm.  Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?).  On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week.  What's happened to Eli and this defense?  And don't even get me started on David Wilson.  He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts.  The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.

Seahawks -3 over TEXANS

Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't.  It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up.  All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL.  It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee.  Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC.  The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.

TITANS -3.5 over Jets

Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record.  If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous.  The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20.  These teams are very similar in their style.  Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over.  In situations like this I like to ride the home team.  Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs.  Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.

CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys

Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour.  Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start.  He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT.  Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT.  This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.

Bears +3 over LIONS

It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car.  That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing.  The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson.  Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell.  But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever.  They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses).  Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0.  This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.


Other NFL in 10 or less

RAMS +3 over 49ers     Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.

BILLS +3.5 over Ravens     Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.

BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals     Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.

Colts -8 over JAGUARS     Can't get myself to take the Jags again.

Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS     Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.

Vikings +2 over Steelers     Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.

Redskins -3 over RAIDERS     If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.

BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles     More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.

FALCONS -2 over Patriots     Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.

SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins     Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.

SuperContest
Last Week:  1-4
Season Total:  8-7

Overall
Last Week:  7-8-1
Season Total:  24-21-2

NFL Week 3 Pick'em

The big news in the NFL was Trent Richardson being dealt to the Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick.  When I saw this I didn't believe it.  T-Rich was the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft and he's already been traded.  If the Browns are interested in rebuilding wouldn't you want to do that around a great running back like Richardson?  I'm kind of confused but I do know that the Browns will have a hard time winning games now and I guess they are in a fight for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft with Jacksonville.

It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend.  However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2.  It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone.  The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again.  They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year.  The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread).  Let's get back on track in Week 3.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns

I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now.  The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help.  Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer.  Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson.  But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball.  This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home.  AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown. 

Bills +2.5 over JETS

Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team.  Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York.  Last week was a perfect example of this.  Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10.  However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23.  I'll take the better QB and the points.

DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons

I totally doubted Miami coming into this year.  I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace.  But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around.  Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions.  Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1.  Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug.  They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel.  Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor.  Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.

Packers -3 over BENGALS

The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day.  Green Bay also found new life at the running back position.  After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild.  Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD.  The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers.  Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends.  This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.

Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS

I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago.  They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs.  Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's.  For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory.  The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough.  Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.


Other NFL in 10 or less

Chiefs +3 over EAGLES    Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.

TITANS -3 over Chargers    Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.

Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS    If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.

RAVENS +2.5 over Texans    Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.

Rams +4 over COWBOYS     Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.

Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS    Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.

PANTHERS -1 over Giants    Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.

Colts +10 over 49ERS    Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.

Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS    Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.

STEELERS +2.5 over Bears     Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.

BRONCOS -15 over Raiders    Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  7-3

Overall
Last Week:  8-8
Season Total:  17-13-1