Well that was painful. After two winning weeks in the SuperContest I totally bombed and went 1-4. I was completely wrong about the Vikings-Browns game as the Vikings are a lot worse than I expected and Josh Gordon's return to the Browns was a big difference for that team, even without T-Rich. Also, I thought I had the Packers game wrapped up until a fumble return for a touchdown. One thing I'm learning as I pick every game and take notes is how great home field advantage is in the NFL. We all know that playing at home helps but last week the home team went 10-5-1 ATS. And for the season, home underdogs are 8-4. That's a big number considering that home-dogs usually occur when top ten teams are visitors. This week we have 7 home-dogs (excluding the Steelers-Vikings being played in London) so we will get an even better feel for the home field advantage lesser teams receive against better opponents. Hopefully Week 4 goes a little smoother with that in mind.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -4 over Giants
Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm. Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?). On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week. What's happened to Eli and this defense? And don't even get me started on David Wilson. He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts. The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.
Seahawks -3 over TEXANS
Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't. It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up. All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL. It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee. Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC. The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.
TITANS -3.5 over Jets
Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record. If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous. The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20. These teams are very similar in their style. Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over. In situations like this I like to ride the home team. Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs. Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.
CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys
Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour. Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start. He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT. Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT. This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.
Bears +3 over LIONS
It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car. That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing. The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson. Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell. But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever. They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses). Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0. This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.
Other NFL in 10 or less
RAMS +3 over 49ers Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.
BILLS +3.5 over Ravens Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.
BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.
Colts -8 over JAGUARS Can't get myself to take the Jags again.
Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.
Vikings +2 over Steelers Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.
Redskins -3 over RAIDERS If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.
BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.
FALCONS -2 over Patriots Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.
SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 8-7
Overall
Last Week: 7-8-1
Season Total: 24-21-2
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