The NFL season kicked off yesterday with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos disposing of the defending champion Baltimore Ravens 49-27. I was in Las Vegas for the game and there is nothing like being in a casino sports book during the NFL. Every week squares and sharps lineup to test their football knowledge against the spreads trying to show they know more than the bookmakers. The biggest draw for average joes and professionals to compete against the odds is the SuperContest at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.
The SuperContest is to sports gamblers as the World Series of Poker is to poker players. There is a $1,500 entry fee and each week you pick 5 NFL games against the spread. Last year was its biggest with 745 entries and over $1.1 million in the prize pool with the winner receiving $447,000. I've always been fascinated with the world of sports betting, but since I'm broke I can't enter the SuperContest. So I'm going to pick my 5 NFL games on here as well as the rest of the games each week. I'll track my stats and see if I can reach the 60% mark by the end of the season, which is what players usually need to hit to get in the money. I will use the lines I find on SportsMemo's live odds page, because they show up to the minute odds for the Las Vegas Hilton. Also, keep in mind that when it comes to sports betting I'm like Remo Gaggi, a degenerate that only gets it right if Sam 'Ace' Rothstein is making my plays. So without further ado...
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
With Carson Palmer joining the Cardinals this offseason, this offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at the helm and the team boasting three 1,000 yard receivers. Now, I don't think this team will make the Super Bowl like in 2008 or even the playoffs. But Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd will put up big numbers in Bruce Arians pass happy offense. Their defense is solid as well and St. Louis will have a tough time keeping up on the points.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I'm not buying into all the hype around the Miami Dolphins this year. Ryan Tannehill showed me nothing last season (12 TDs and 13 INTs) for me to believe in his drastic improvement. Also, I don't see Lamar Miller as a solid starting RB in the NFL and Mike Wallace will be a flop. I'm not sold on the Browns by any means either, but one guy I am high on is Trent Richardson. The Dolphins will struggle to stop T-Rich and also cover TE Jordan Cameron (huge fantasy sleeper).
Chiefs -3.5 over JAGUARS
The Kansas City Chiefs will be one the most improved teams in 2013 and it's all because of Alex Smith (I never thought I'd say that). But the thing about Smith is that he won't wow you with stats but he usually won't lose a game for you either. And that's exactly what the Chiefs need. With a great back like Jamaal Charles and a defense that had three Pro-Bowlers a year ago (one at each level), this team will challenge for the playoffs. On the other hand, Jacksonville will challenge for worst team in the league.
LIONS -5 over Vikings
Oh, our favorite Detroit Lions. This is really hard to put confidence in this game because every time we start to have confidence with the Lions they quickly disappoint us, usually painfully. But I think the addition of Reggie Bush is really big, and not even for the running game, but the passing attack. Last year Matthew Stafford threw the ball a NFL record 727 times. Bush will work wonders on screens and in the flats (top-5 RB in PPR leagues). As for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league but that happens to be the Lions strong suit on defense. Peterson will go off, but not enough to cover for the Vikes.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Giants
In a classic rivalry like Cowboys-Giants it's tough to predict a winner because anything can happen. However, the Giants have won every game (4) at Jerry Jones' new massive stadium, which tells me the Cowboys are due to put an end to that streak. Tony Romo I feel is fit to have a solid year and with how well Dez Bryant played down the stretch in 2012, this offense will put up points. It will come down to their defense stopping Eli Manning. The Giants have their share of solid receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and an emerging Rueben Randle but Dallas will get just enough out of their D to prevail.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Patriots -10 over BILLS Buffalo is another team in contention for worst in NFL.
Titans +7 over STEELERS Pittsburgh will struggle to score enough to cover 7.
SAINTS -3 over Falcons In a shootout you always go with the home favorite.
Bucs -3.5 over JETS Jets don't have a quarterback, Bucs have a muscle hamster.
BEARS -3 over Bengals Bears defense will be too much.
Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS Seattle shows why they are the early Super Bowl favorite.
Raiders +10 over COLTS Look for the Colts to have a down year.
49ERS -4.5 over Packers San Fran's defense will be the difference.
REDSKINS -4 over Eagles College coaches struggle in the NFL until proven otherwise.
Texans -5 over CHARGERS Chargers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Houston.
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