After our best week, we follow that up with our worst. But, our SuperContest picks were great going 4-1. There were some big story lines as well as Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a shootout for the ages, the Jets had a two-minute comeback, while Julio Jones is lost for the year, and two unbeaten teams went down. This week everybody is talking about the largest spread in NFL history. The Denver Broncos opened as a 28-point favorite at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was shocked in Week 3 when the Seahawks were almost a 20-point favorite against the Jags, but this is crazy. College football has bigger numbers than this all the time (every Oregon game), but we just don't see spreads like this in the NFL. Other than that there aren't too many good games outside of New Orleans-New England and Washington-Dallas. So, let's improve on last week's poor performance.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
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