After four long weeks we finally had a winning week in the SuperContest with a 4-1 record in Week 5. We saw some great games last week with the Browns rallying from 25 down on the road to beat the Titans, two overtime games where New Orleans and Dallas came out on top, and my Detroit Lions finding a new way to lose. The Lions K Alex Henery missed 3 FGs including a 50-yarder with 21 seconds left which in turn lead to the Bills K Dan Carpenter hitting a GW 58-yard FG of his own. Henery has since been cut and Detroit signed former Broncos K Matt Prater, which makes it 3 kickers in 6 weeks. This week is very interesting betting wise with 8 home/dogs out of 15 games. The means small lines and tougher games pick. But we gotta do, what we gotta do.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -1.5 over Steelers
After their huge comeback against the Titans last week, Cleveland is looking to get on the plus side of .500 in a big rivalry game. RB Ben Tate saw his first action since a Week 1 injury and played great rushing for 124 yards on 24 carries. This is a good sign for a team usually known for its defense but who is struggling on that side of the ball this year. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in total defense after being in the top 10 in 2013. However, they've made up for it with the play of QB Brian Hoyer. In Week 1 Hoyer almost lead the Browns back from a 24-point half time deficit against these Steelers only to see Pittsburgh win on a last second FG. This time the Browns won't get down so big, so early and take the win.
FALCONS -3 over Bears
Atlanta can't wait to get back home. After going winless on their two game road trip the Falcons will look to get back on track against the Bears. Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be the biggest beneficiary of returning to the Georgia Dome as he has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INTs at home and 5 TDs with 6 INTs on the road. As for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, who was recently compared to retired QB Jeff George by Brian Billick on "Mike and Mike", threw 2 bad interceptions last week against the Panthers and lost the game down the stretch 31-24. Atlanta WR Devin Hester will also be looking to show out against his old team the same way Steve Smith did in Week 3 against Carolina. Atlanta takes this one.
Patriots -3 over BILLS
Note to self...don't bet against Brady's Pats as home/dogs. Last week I doubted New England, and Brady, and it cost me a 5-0 SC record. I've learned my lesson and the rest of the league took notice that the Pats aren't finished yet. New England waxed the then undefeated Bengals 43-17 and will now take on a 3-2 Bills team that barely escaped a loss in Detroit. This is a big game for both teams as they are tied atop the AFC East and that's why I see the Pats taking it. They knew last week it was a turning point in the season if they won and now that they have they take control on their division.
Cowboys +8 over SEAHAWKS
The Dallas Cowboys are the surprise team of the NFL with a 4-1 record and DeMarco Murray is the surprise player leading the league in rushing. Don't get me wrong, Seattle is the better team but Dallas' running game is what will keep it close. The Seahawks lead league in rushing defense but are yet to face a formidable attack. Their first four game have been against teams ranked in the bottom 20 in rushing. Seattle's defense has been good but not great this season as they've only forced 3 turnovers thus far, although Dallas is one of the more turnover prone teams (but so was Washington who had 0 TOs last week). Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also been a better game manager as of late with an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Seattle wins but Dallas covers.
RAMS +3.5 over 49ers Austin Davis putting up numbers
St. Louis has had a rough season even before it actually started with QB Sam Bradford going down for the year and their defense not living up to their expectations. But ever since QB Austin Davis has been inserted in to the starting lineup in Week 2 they have been competitive and are 2-1 ATS. In his last two games Davis has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners are 3-2 overall but only 1-4 ATS. Their defense ranks 2nd in the league and all the signs are pointing to San Francisco taking this game but they have been keeping their opponents within striking distance.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TEXANS Texans don't have D to stop Luck
JETS +10 over Broncos Only because of double digit home/dog
TITANS -5 over Jaguars Even if Whitehurst starts since Jags are embarrassing
DOLPHINS +3.5 over Packers Miami decent at home and defense is in top 10
Lions -1.5 over VIKINGS Lions finally have a kicker, can now win close games
Panthers +6.5 over BENGALS No AJ Green limits Cincy's scoring ability
Ravens -3 over BUCS Despite last week, Ravens offense playing well
RAIDERS +7 over Chargers New coach, 2 weeks rest, rivarly, SD first ATS loss
Redskins +3.5 over CARDINALS Logan Thomas will struggle too much for Arizona
EAGLES -3 over Giants Gonna be a shootout and no Jennings for NYG
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 11-14
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 34-42
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
2014 NFL Week 5 Pick'em
Once you get in a hole it's hard to dig yourself out. We are still 6 games below .500 in the SuperContest and 7 overall. Last week we saw that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are a shell of their former selves and it doesn't get any better this week with the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals coming to town after a bye week. Also, the New Orleans Saints are having their troubles on the road as they are now 1-3 after getting trounced in Dallas 38-17. Speaking of Dallas, RB DeMarco Murray is setting the league on fire right now with 4 straight games of 100+ yards and 1 TD to open the season. This week the two games I'm looking forward to watching are the Patriots-Bengals and Cardinals-Broncos. Can the Brady Bunch bounce back against a good Cincy team? How will Arizona and Denver matchup after both coming off byes? Let's dig it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
Thursday, September 25, 2014
2014 NFL Week 4 Pick'em
The Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and Denver will be one of the best games this year. Broncos' QB Peyton Manning's late 4th quarter comeback down 8 with less than a minute left and no timeouts to tie the game at 20 was nothing less than spectacular. However, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson got the ball to start overtime and never let Peyton get his hands on it. Wilson led Seattle 80 yards in 5:46 to score the game winning touchdown capped off by a Marshawn Lynch 6 yard TD run. In OT, Wilson kept the drive alive with legs scrambling on 3rd down twice to get the first. He now has a 7-0 combined record against Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. The big surprise was my Detroit Lions defense shutting down Rodgers and the Packers. The defense line for Detroit was outstanding keeping pressure on Rodgers allowing only 162 yards passing yards. Week 3 finally brought us our first winning week overall but still a loss for the SuperContest. This week the two big games to keep your eye on are the Packers at Bears and Saints at Cowboys. Let's do it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
REDSKINS -3 over Giants
I know they didn't win the game, but how about the performance Kirk Cousins had last week. He threw for 427 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 INT in a 37-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins now faces a Giants defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense. We all know Eli Manning has been struggling but one thing New York has going for them is newly acquired RB Rashad Jennings who has the 3rd most rushing yards in the NFL with 286. Unfortunately for Jennings he's going up against the 3rd best rushing defense in Washington that is only giving up 64.7 yards per game. Not to mention, the home teams in Thursday night games are 3-0 with a 118-36 point differential.
BEARS +2 over Packers
After winning 2 straight road games the Chicago Bears head home to take on division rival Green Bay. These Bears have been giving up a lot of yards but are tied for the league lead in takeaways (8) and INTs (6). QB Jay Cutler has also been playing well throwing for 8 TDs and only 2 INTs while spreading the ball to WRs Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, TE Martellus Bennett, and RB Matt Forte. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers has struggled mightily on the road throwing for less than 200 yards at Seattle and at Detroit. And guess what...this is another road game. RB Eddie Lacy is also having a bad year for Green Bay rushing for only 113 yards in 3 games. The Packers are having a hard time scoring and a hard time stoping other teams from scoring giving up 26.3 point per game. The Chicago Bears are looking to get revenge after Green Bay kept them out of the playoffs last year with the defense losing Randall Cobb for the game-winning touchdown in the last minute.
RAVENS -3 over Panthers
For 13 years WR Steve Smith was the leader of the Carolina Panthers recording 7 season with 1,000+ receiving yards but had a down year in 2013 with only 745 yards. Now with the Baltimore Ravens, Smith has been rejuvenated. He already has 290 yards in 3 games and has quickly become QB Joe Flacco's favorite target. As for Smith's replacement in Carolina, rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin has been a pleasant surprise with 253 yards and 2 TDs. Where the Panthers have had trouble is the ground game, they are averaging 72.3 yards which is good for 29th in the NFL. Since Cam Newton was drafted by Carolina in 2011, the Panthers have never ranked lower than 11th. We expected the Ravens to struggle with their rushing attack without RB Ray Rice but the committee of Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, and Lorenzo Taliaferro has the Ravens currently ranked 8th in the NFL in rushing. Baltimore will get it done at home against a tough Carolina defense.
Falcons -2.5 over VIKINGS
Without RB Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings have failed to score double digits in 2 straight games. The Flacons don't have the best defense in the league but are currently leading the NFL in total offense (455) and points per game (34.3). WR Julio Jones seems to be fully recovered from last years season ending injury as he has 365 receiving yards which also leads the league. Minnesota will be starting rookie 1st rounder QB Teddy Bridgewater for the first time as QB Matt Cassel suffered a broken foot against the Saints in Week 2 and is out for the year. Many experts thought Bridgewater was the most NFL ready quarterback in the 2013 draft and the Vikings are hoping they are correct. However, he won't be able to put up enough points in this one to keep up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons high powered offense.
COWBOYS +3 over Saints
This game will be your classic shootout. Both teams can score and both teams have problems on defense. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray has been a beast running for over 100 yards and scoring 1 touchdown in each of his first 3 games. The Saints running game actually looked good the first 2 weeks with RB Mark Ingram averaging 6.0 yards per carry but he went down with a fractured hand and New Orleans went down to 3.4 yards per carry in Week 3. Saints QB Drew Brees has been good but not great so far and Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been his normal up and down self but has improved each week. In a game with good offense and no defense, it's always smart to go with the home team.
Other NFL in 10 or less
RAIDERS +3.5 over Dolphins in London London keeps getting screwed with bad games
TEXANS -3 over Bills If Foster plays Houston will control the game
COLTS -7.5 over Titans Indy found its stride against Jax and Luck is rolling
Lions -1.5 over JETS Lions defense confident after shutting down GB
STEELERS -7.5 over Bucs Can't take the Bucs until they show me something
Jaguars +13 over CHARGERS Blake Bortles keeps it close
Eagles +5.5 over 49ERS 49ers D struggling and Philly can score
CHIEFS +3.5 over Patriots Don't know what's up with Brady, take Home/Dog
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 5-10
Overall
Last Week: 9-7
Season Total: 20-28
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
REDSKINS -3 over Giants
I know they didn't win the game, but how about the performance Kirk Cousins had last week. He threw for 427 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 INT in a 37-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins now faces a Giants defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense. We all know Eli Manning has been struggling but one thing New York has going for them is newly acquired RB Rashad Jennings who has the 3rd most rushing yards in the NFL with 286. Unfortunately for Jennings he's going up against the 3rd best rushing defense in Washington that is only giving up 64.7 yards per game. Not to mention, the home teams in Thursday night games are 3-0 with a 118-36 point differential.
BEARS +2 over Packers
After winning 2 straight road games the Chicago Bears head home to take on division rival Green Bay. These Bears have been giving up a lot of yards but are tied for the league lead in takeaways (8) and INTs (6). QB Jay Cutler has also been playing well throwing for 8 TDs and only 2 INTs while spreading the ball to WRs Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, TE Martellus Bennett, and RB Matt Forte. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers has struggled mightily on the road throwing for less than 200 yards at Seattle and at Detroit. And guess what...this is another road game. RB Eddie Lacy is also having a bad year for Green Bay rushing for only 113 yards in 3 games. The Packers are having a hard time scoring and a hard time stoping other teams from scoring giving up 26.3 point per game. The Chicago Bears are looking to get revenge after Green Bay kept them out of the playoffs last year with the defense losing Randall Cobb for the game-winning touchdown in the last minute.
RAVENS -3 over Panthers
For 13 years WR Steve Smith was the leader of the Carolina Panthers recording 7 season with 1,000+ receiving yards but had a down year in 2013 with only 745 yards. Now with the Baltimore Ravens, Smith has been rejuvenated. He already has 290 yards in 3 games and has quickly become QB Joe Flacco's favorite target. As for Smith's replacement in Carolina, rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin has been a pleasant surprise with 253 yards and 2 TDs. Where the Panthers have had trouble is the ground game, they are averaging 72.3 yards which is good for 29th in the NFL. Since Cam Newton was drafted by Carolina in 2011, the Panthers have never ranked lower than 11th. We expected the Ravens to struggle with their rushing attack without RB Ray Rice but the committee of Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, and Lorenzo Taliaferro has the Ravens currently ranked 8th in the NFL in rushing. Baltimore will get it done at home against a tough Carolina defense.
Falcons -2.5 over VIKINGS
Without RB Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings have failed to score double digits in 2 straight games. The Flacons don't have the best defense in the league but are currently leading the NFL in total offense (455) and points per game (34.3). WR Julio Jones seems to be fully recovered from last years season ending injury as he has 365 receiving yards which also leads the league. Minnesota will be starting rookie 1st rounder QB Teddy Bridgewater for the first time as QB Matt Cassel suffered a broken foot against the Saints in Week 2 and is out for the year. Many experts thought Bridgewater was the most NFL ready quarterback in the 2013 draft and the Vikings are hoping they are correct. However, he won't be able to put up enough points in this one to keep up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons high powered offense.
COWBOYS +3 over Saints
This game will be your classic shootout. Both teams can score and both teams have problems on defense. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray has been a beast running for over 100 yards and scoring 1 touchdown in each of his first 3 games. The Saints running game actually looked good the first 2 weeks with RB Mark Ingram averaging 6.0 yards per carry but he went down with a fractured hand and New Orleans went down to 3.4 yards per carry in Week 3. Saints QB Drew Brees has been good but not great so far and Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been his normal up and down self but has improved each week. In a game with good offense and no defense, it's always smart to go with the home team.
Other NFL in 10 or less
RAIDERS +3.5 over Dolphins in London London keeps getting screwed with bad games
TEXANS -3 over Bills If Foster plays Houston will control the game
COLTS -7.5 over Titans Indy found its stride against Jax and Luck is rolling
Lions -1.5 over JETS Lions defense confident after shutting down GB
STEELERS -7.5 over Bucs Can't take the Bucs until they show me something
Jaguars +13 over CHARGERS Blake Bortles keeps it close
Eagles +5.5 over 49ERS 49ers D struggling and Philly can score
CHIEFS +3.5 over Patriots Don't know what's up with Brady, take Home/Dog
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 5-10
Overall
Last Week: 9-7
Season Total: 20-28
Thursday, September 18, 2014
2014 NFL Week 3 Pick'em
Week 2 was one to be forgotten. An embarrassing 5-11 overall record with 1-4 in SC picks isn't going to cut it. But aside from that Week 2 was full of injuries. Jamaal Charles, AJ Green, RG3, Knowshon Moreno, DeSean Jackson and Mark Ingram all went down. Not to mention the news of Adrian Peterson being shut down because of child abuse allegations. By the way, has the NFL ever been in a worse place than now with Ray Rice, Peterson, Greg Hardy, Jonathan Dwyer and Ray MacDonald all being in the headlines for some sort of domestic abuse? Anyway, Week 3 brings a Super Bowl rematch between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. Denver has a revamped defense as 9 of 11 starters this year that did not play in the Super Bowl. This week I have to make it quick on the picks since I've spent this week moving to Bristol, Connecticut. Here we go.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BILLS -2.5 over Chargers Buffalo strong at home, SD still celebrating Seattle win
Cowboys -1 over RAMS Cowboys started better than expected, take down depleted Rams
Packers +2.5 over LIONS Detroit has no secondary, Rodgers and Co. go off
CARDINALS +3 over 49ers Arizona keeps it close even without Palmer
PANTHERS -3.5 over Steelers Cam came back strong and defense looks great
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS -6.5 over Bucs Too much firepower for Falcons at home
Redskins +6.5 over EAGLES Cousins looked great and Eagles slow coming off big win
GIANTS +2 over Texans Giants stink but Texans coming from Oakland
SAINTS -10 over Vikings Saints turn it up after 0-2 start
BENGALS -6.5 over Titans Bengals D too tough for Tennessee
BROWNS +1.5 over Ravens Cleveland riding high after win over Saints
Colts -7 over JAGUARS Jags have no offense and no defense
Raiders +14 over PATRIOTS Only because it's 14 points
Broncos +5 over SEAHAWKS Peyton has been waiting for a rematch
DOLPHINS -4 over Chiefs No Jamaal Charles means big problems for Chiefs
JETS -3 over Bears Geno Smith plays better at home, so does defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 3-7
Overall
Last Week: 5-11
Season Total: 11-21
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BILLS -2.5 over Chargers Buffalo strong at home, SD still celebrating Seattle win
Cowboys -1 over RAMS Cowboys started better than expected, take down depleted Rams
Packers +2.5 over LIONS Detroit has no secondary, Rodgers and Co. go off
CARDINALS +3 over 49ers Arizona keeps it close even without Palmer
PANTHERS -3.5 over Steelers Cam came back strong and defense looks great
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS -6.5 over Bucs Too much firepower for Falcons at home
Redskins +6.5 over EAGLES Cousins looked great and Eagles slow coming off big win
GIANTS +2 over Texans Giants stink but Texans coming from Oakland
SAINTS -10 over Vikings Saints turn it up after 0-2 start
BENGALS -6.5 over Titans Bengals D too tough for Tennessee
BROWNS +1.5 over Ravens Cleveland riding high after win over Saints
Colts -7 over JAGUARS Jags have no offense and no defense
Raiders +14 over PATRIOTS Only because it's 14 points
Broncos +5 over SEAHAWKS Peyton has been waiting for a rematch
DOLPHINS -4 over Chiefs No Jamaal Charles means big problems for Chiefs
JETS -3 over Bears Geno Smith plays better at home, so does defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 3-7
Overall
Last Week: 5-11
Season Total: 11-21
Thursday, September 11, 2014
2014 NFL Week 2 Pick'em
I want to take this time to address the Ray Rice saga. During the initial stages of this situation, everybody wanted to see the video from inside the elevator because that is all the evidence one needed to make a rational decision on punishment. Now that we have seen the tape it makes the NFL, commissioner Roger Goodell and the Baltimore Ravens look almost as bad as Rice. There was an uproar when the NFL handed Rice a mere two game suspension initially but gave Browns WR Josh Gordon an entire year suspension for smoking weed. It boggles my mind that with all the money and resources the NFL has, this was the first time they saw this video. So basically what you're telling us is that TMZ (who leaked the video) has better investigators than one of the most powerful businesses in the country. The Ravens I will give the benefit of the doubt because maybe they were expecting the NFL to do their due diligence and acquire this video from the hotel or the police. But if the NFL and Roger Goodell thinks we believe them when they tell us they never saw the video, they are sadly mistaken. NFL fans, and the general public, are smarter than that. You are already hearing some serious backlash towards the league and its commissioner, not only from fans but from players as well. Now the fact that a report from law enforcement stating they sent the NFL the elevator video and have a voicemail confirmation from the NFL receiving this video, the NFL and Goodell now find themselves in a very sticky situation. This means either A) they lied about seeing this video or B) they saw the video and did not take proper action against Rice. Either way it will be very interesting to see how this plays out for Roger Goodell and the entire NFL brass. Like Goodell said during the New Orleans Saints "bountygate" scandal, ignorance is not an excuse.
Anyway, Week 1 of the NFL season was definitely a struggle. It was the week of the Road/Dogs as they had a 9-4 record with Road teams going 10-6 and Underdogs 11-5 individually. The worst for me was the St. Louis Rams pick. I thought they would put up a better game being at home but Minnesota was a big surprise. I guess that's what I get for trying to outsmart the wiseguys. The Seattle Seahawks looked great in the first game of their title defense against what will be a solid Green Bay team. The biggest surprise to me was the Buffalo Bills taking down the Bears in Chicago in overtime 23-20. Two other head turners were the Tennessee Titans big win over the Kansas City Chiefs 26-10 and Miami Dolphins shutting out the New England Patriots in the second half to win 33-20. This week is usually tough to pick due to over reaction on Week 1. Hopefully for us we will have a winning week.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Steelers +2.5 over RAVENS
Big rivalry, one team in major turmoil, and had no running back. Sounds pretty simple right? Baltimore looked bad on the field in Week 1 against Cincinnati when they only had a minor Ray Rice issue. Now that is an enormous issue and it will only make things worse within the locker room. Without Rice on the field the Ravens have a big question mark at running back. Bernard Pierce continued to disappoint and although Justin Forsett was a pleasant surprise with 70 yards on 11 carries, the Ravens decided to throw the ball 62 times with Joe Flacco. Baltimore isn't going to win many games if Flacco airing it out that much. Pittsburgh on the other hand was far more balanced and Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a very efficient 23 for 34 with 365 yards. Even though the Steelers needed a last second field goal to dispose of the Browns in Week 1 they were up 27-3 at the half and became complacent. Le'Veon Bell also had a big game with 109 rushing and 88 receiving yards. If Flacco is forced to throw again this week, Baltimore will find itself on the losing end two weeks in a row.
BILLS PK over Dolphins
Both of these teams had big wins in Week 1 as already stated but I think the Bills was more impressive. Chicago has been a team talked about quite a bit in the offseason as a team to make a run at the NFC North title with all the weapons at Jay Cutler's disposal. But Buffalo was able to escape Soldier Field with a W and now return for their home opener with a lot of confidence. Both of these teams had almost identical offense numbers in their first game and the both gave up 20 points, so it is a pretty even matchup. But the way to beat the Bills is through the air and I don't think Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill can do that. Miami RB Knowshon Moreno had one of the biggest games in the league Week 1 rushing for 134 yards and a touchdown. But two is always better than one and Buffalo's RB combo of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson had the Bills as the second best running team in 2013. Young QB's always play better at home and EJ Manuel will manage the game enough to get the Bills off to a 2-0 start.
TITANS -3.5 over Cowboys
Not many teams looked worse than the Dallas Cowboys last week and not many look as good on both sides of the ball as the Tennessee Titans. In 2013 Titans QB Jake Locker had a nice 4-2 record before going down in Week 10 with a season ending injury. Now back and healthy he has this Titans team ready to make a run at the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South. New Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt looks to have this team focused on defense as well holding Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles to only 19 yards on 7 carries. As for Dallas, Tony Romo still can't get out of his own way throwing 3 INTs against the 49ers in Week 1. But it wasn't just him as Dallas RB DeMarco Murray's early fumble led to the first TD of the game against the 49ers. Tennessee's defense will force more turnovers which will lead to more points and a Titan win.
Falcons +5.5 over BENGALS
I'm not sure how many of you watched HBO's Hard Knocks with the Atlanta Falcons this Summer but that series is always a great. But what I've realized is that depending if I'm connecting with the team during the series will affect how I see them performing during the regular season. Sometimes my view has been skewed. So as usual, I went into this year thinking the Atlanta Falcons were going to have a huge bounce back year after a 4-12 record in 2013. It was only one game but right now Matt Ryan has the Falcons offense on point. After an injury plagued year where the best WR tandem in the league, Julio Jones and Roddy White, saw limited action, they are back healthy and looked great in Week 1. In their stead a year ago we saw the emergence of WR Harry Douglas, who had his first 1,000 yard season and not to mention they added WR Devin Hester. I believe the Bengals have one of the top 5 best defenses in this league and are very deep at the CB position. But there is only so long you can hold this receiving corps down before one of them breaks loose. I do think the Bengals will win because of their defense, however Atlanta covers.
COLTS -3 over Eagles
Both teams started off slow in Week 1 scoring a combined 7 points and giving up a combined 41 points in the first half. Fortunately for Philadelphia they were playing against Jacksonville and were able to have a come from behind victory. Indianapolis on the other hand was playing in Denver and although they didn't win, were able to manage a backdoor cover. This should be an exciting game to watch as there will be plenty of scoring. The thing here is that Colts QB Andrew Luck won't have as bad of a game he had against Denver. Luck threw 2 INTs and was stuffed on a 4th and goal from the 1 to start the second half. The bad news for Indy is they received word this week their leading defender, LB Robert Mathis, is out for the year with a torn Achilles. He was serving a 4 game suspension for PED use but this is a big blow. That will bring the Colts season win total down a bit but I still like their chances in this game.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Lions +3 over PANTHERS Lions' offense looks great and Cam still hurting
Jaguars +6 over REDSKINS Jaguars put together a whole game this time
GIANTS +2.5 over Cardinals Late MNF game and cross country flight hurt Arizona
Patriots -3 over VIKINGS Brady can't start 0-2, can he?
BROWNS +6.5 over Saints Cleveland keeps is close but Saints win
BUCS -5.5 over Rams Can't trust the Rams, now on their 3rd QB
CHARGERS +6 over Seahawks Could be trap game for Seattle looking toward Denver
RAIDERS +3 over Texans There's just something about that Black Hole
Jets +8.5 over PACKERS Big line for a good Jets defense
BRONCOS -12 over Chiefs KC looked terrible on offense, can't score enough
49ERS -7 over Bears Bears looked unimpressive against Bills last week
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 2-3
Overall
Last Week: 6-10
Season Total: 6-10
Anyway, Week 1 of the NFL season was definitely a struggle. It was the week of the Road/Dogs as they had a 9-4 record with Road teams going 10-6 and Underdogs 11-5 individually. The worst for me was the St. Louis Rams pick. I thought they would put up a better game being at home but Minnesota was a big surprise. I guess that's what I get for trying to outsmart the wiseguys. The Seattle Seahawks looked great in the first game of their title defense against what will be a solid Green Bay team. The biggest surprise to me was the Buffalo Bills taking down the Bears in Chicago in overtime 23-20. Two other head turners were the Tennessee Titans big win over the Kansas City Chiefs 26-10 and Miami Dolphins shutting out the New England Patriots in the second half to win 33-20. This week is usually tough to pick due to over reaction on Week 1. Hopefully for us we will have a winning week.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Steelers +2.5 over RAVENS
Big rivalry, one team in major turmoil, and had no running back. Sounds pretty simple right? Baltimore looked bad on the field in Week 1 against Cincinnati when they only had a minor Ray Rice issue. Now that is an enormous issue and it will only make things worse within the locker room. Without Rice on the field the Ravens have a big question mark at running back. Bernard Pierce continued to disappoint and although Justin Forsett was a pleasant surprise with 70 yards on 11 carries, the Ravens decided to throw the ball 62 times with Joe Flacco. Baltimore isn't going to win many games if Flacco airing it out that much. Pittsburgh on the other hand was far more balanced and Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a very efficient 23 for 34 with 365 yards. Even though the Steelers needed a last second field goal to dispose of the Browns in Week 1 they were up 27-3 at the half and became complacent. Le'Veon Bell also had a big game with 109 rushing and 88 receiving yards. If Flacco is forced to throw again this week, Baltimore will find itself on the losing end two weeks in a row.
BILLS PK over Dolphins
Both of these teams had big wins in Week 1 as already stated but I think the Bills was more impressive. Chicago has been a team talked about quite a bit in the offseason as a team to make a run at the NFC North title with all the weapons at Jay Cutler's disposal. But Buffalo was able to escape Soldier Field with a W and now return for their home opener with a lot of confidence. Both of these teams had almost identical offense numbers in their first game and the both gave up 20 points, so it is a pretty even matchup. But the way to beat the Bills is through the air and I don't think Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill can do that. Miami RB Knowshon Moreno had one of the biggest games in the league Week 1 rushing for 134 yards and a touchdown. But two is always better than one and Buffalo's RB combo of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson had the Bills as the second best running team in 2013. Young QB's always play better at home and EJ Manuel will manage the game enough to get the Bills off to a 2-0 start.
TITANS -3.5 over Cowboys
Not many teams looked worse than the Dallas Cowboys last week and not many look as good on both sides of the ball as the Tennessee Titans. In 2013 Titans QB Jake Locker had a nice 4-2 record before going down in Week 10 with a season ending injury. Now back and healthy he has this Titans team ready to make a run at the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South. New Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt looks to have this team focused on defense as well holding Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles to only 19 yards on 7 carries. As for Dallas, Tony Romo still can't get out of his own way throwing 3 INTs against the 49ers in Week 1. But it wasn't just him as Dallas RB DeMarco Murray's early fumble led to the first TD of the game against the 49ers. Tennessee's defense will force more turnovers which will lead to more points and a Titan win.
Falcons +5.5 over BENGALS
I'm not sure how many of you watched HBO's Hard Knocks with the Atlanta Falcons this Summer but that series is always a great. But what I've realized is that depending if I'm connecting with the team during the series will affect how I see them performing during the regular season. Sometimes my view has been skewed. So as usual, I went into this year thinking the Atlanta Falcons were going to have a huge bounce back year after a 4-12 record in 2013. It was only one game but right now Matt Ryan has the Falcons offense on point. After an injury plagued year where the best WR tandem in the league, Julio Jones and Roddy White, saw limited action, they are back healthy and looked great in Week 1. In their stead a year ago we saw the emergence of WR Harry Douglas, who had his first 1,000 yard season and not to mention they added WR Devin Hester. I believe the Bengals have one of the top 5 best defenses in this league and are very deep at the CB position. But there is only so long you can hold this receiving corps down before one of them breaks loose. I do think the Bengals will win because of their defense, however Atlanta covers.
COLTS -3 over Eagles
Both teams started off slow in Week 1 scoring a combined 7 points and giving up a combined 41 points in the first half. Fortunately for Philadelphia they were playing against Jacksonville and were able to have a come from behind victory. Indianapolis on the other hand was playing in Denver and although they didn't win, were able to manage a backdoor cover. This should be an exciting game to watch as there will be plenty of scoring. The thing here is that Colts QB Andrew Luck won't have as bad of a game he had against Denver. Luck threw 2 INTs and was stuffed on a 4th and goal from the 1 to start the second half. The bad news for Indy is they received word this week their leading defender, LB Robert Mathis, is out for the year with a torn Achilles. He was serving a 4 game suspension for PED use but this is a big blow. That will bring the Colts season win total down a bit but I still like their chances in this game.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Lions +3 over PANTHERS Lions' offense looks great and Cam still hurting
Jaguars +6 over REDSKINS Jaguars put together a whole game this time
GIANTS +2.5 over Cardinals Late MNF game and cross country flight hurt Arizona
Patriots -3 over VIKINGS Brady can't start 0-2, can he?
BROWNS +6.5 over Saints Cleveland keeps is close but Saints win
BUCS -5.5 over Rams Can't trust the Rams, now on their 3rd QB
CHARGERS +6 over Seahawks Could be trap game for Seattle looking toward Denver
RAIDERS +3 over Texans There's just something about that Black Hole
Jets +8.5 over PACKERS Big line for a good Jets defense
BRONCOS -12 over Chiefs KC looked terrible on offense, can't score enough
49ERS -7 over Bears Bears looked unimpressive against Bills last week
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 2-3
Overall
Last Week: 6-10
Season Total: 6-10
Thursday, September 4, 2014
2014 NFL Week 1 Pick'em
After getting a good response at the end of the last NFL season, I decided to bring you my picks again for 2014. For those of you that are new to the blog, the Las Vegas Hotel holds the LVH SuperContest every NFL season where sharps and squares pick five games against the spread each week. The entry fee is $1,500 and last year's winner took home $542,850. Now since I don't have that kind of money to do it for real, we do it here for fun as we keep track of our record all season. Last year we finished just slightly "out of the money" as we had a 47-34-4 record (49 points as each push is .5 points). Along with the SuperContest picks, I'll also give you every game ATS just in case you feel like getting frisky with your local bookie.
This year there are a few teams looking to bounce back and some that are trending downward. The Atlanta Falcons are a team to keep an eye on as they had a myriad of injuries to their offense a year ago with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson all missing multiple games. On the other hand I feel the Carolina Panthers, a team that won 12 games last season, could possibly see their win totals cut in half due to the fact that Cam Newton has nobody to throw the ball to. Then you have the St. Louis Rams, a team poised to make a move riding a strong defense and Sam Bradford back from an ACL tear that cost him half the 2013 season. Unfortunately for Bradford, and the Rams, he suffered another ACL injury during the preseason and will miss the entire 2014 campaign. However, they still have to play the games and lines will still get posted, and we still have to make picks.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
RAMS -3.5 over Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are a wiseguy pick to have a big turnaround this year and was also discussed a couple weeks ago on my favorite podcast, Behind the Bets, as a team to take the over for season win totals. But I just don't see it. This is a defense that gave up the most points in the league and second most yards in 2013 and on top of that lost their leading sack man (DE Jared Allen) and second leading tackler (LB Erin Henderson). Now we all know how great RB Adrian Peterson is but I don't have much faith in QBs Matt Cassell or Teddy Bridgewater, at least not this early in the season. Yes, I just mentioned the St. Louis Rams lost their QB Sam Bradford for the season, which is a huge blow to this team. However, they signed veteran Shaun Hill in the offseason who jumps into the starting role and should be able to manage the game enough to pull out a few victories. But the Rams are built on their defense, anchored by Robert Quinn who had 19 sacks a year ago. The Vikings will have a hard time scoring and a hard time defending, even against a backup QB.
Bengals +2 over RAVENS
Cincinnati is a team that doesn't seem to get much love. But why not? The Bengals won 11 games last year and finished in the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense. Let's not forget about WR A.J. Green, who is considered the next best receiver in the game behind Calvin Johnson. Also, QB Andy Dalton has steadily improved over his three years and is one of the more consistent QBs in the league. As for the Ravens, they will be without RB Ray Rice their first two games due to a domestic violence suspension and RB Bernard Pierce didn't show us anything last year in ample opportunities rushing for 2.9 YPC. QB Joe Flacco also did not live up to his big contract extension in 2013 throwing for 19 TDs and 22 INTs, showing us that he is a mediocre quarterback.
TEXANS -3 over Redskins
How long will it be before QB Robert Griffin III is replaced by Kirk Cousins? Not because of injury but because of poor play. I know the preseason doesn't mean much but RG3 has not looked good at all. The Texans now have a healthy RB Arian Foster on offense and LB Brian Cushing on defense, both coming back from season ending injuries. Houston also has #1 overall draft pick DE Jadeveon Clowney now paired with the highest paid defensive lineman ever in DE J.J. Watt. This team will be much improved from two wins in 2013. Still not sure on new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick but he can't be much worse than former QB Matt Schaub.
COWBOYS +5 over 49ers
With the suspension of DE Aldon Smith and injury to LB NaVarro Bowman the San Francisco are without two of their best defensive players. Not to mention the departures of S Donte Whitner and CB Carlos Rogers this team had a lot of holes to fill before Week 1. I won't even get into the Cowboys defense because not only were they the worst in the NFL in 2013 but they lost LB Sean Lee to injury and DEs DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher in free agency. Dallas will be the worst defense in the league again in 2014. But, they still have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant who can go off any given Sunday and Terrance Williams should factor in to the passing game a lot more this year. Dallas will most likely lose this game but will keep it close enough to cover.
CARDINALS -3 over Chargers
Somehow the Arizona Cardinals went 10-6 in 2013 and missed the playoffs. Usually double-digit wins guarantees a playoff birth but that's not always the case when your in the same division as the Seahawks and 49ers. But I believe the Cardinals will make the playoffs this year and will finish ahead of San Francisco in the division. With adding LB Larry Foote and CB Antonio Cromartie to a stout defense and RB Andre Ellington ready to breakout, this team will be tough. San Diego is a team I like to make the playoffs also as Keenan Allen was a huge surprise in 2013. But I think Arizona outplays the Chargers on both sides of the ball to take this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Packers +6 over SEAHAWKS Packers remember what happened the last time in Seattle
Saints -3 over FALCONS Great underrated rivalry but Saints poised for big year
Browns +6.5 over STEELERS Hoyer shows why he was picked and keeps it close
Jaguars +10.5 over EAGLES Big number for opening week
JETS -5.5 over Raiders Jets D too much for rookie David Carr
BEARS -7 over Bills Bears offense will put up huge numbers all year
CHIEFS -3.5 over Titans Jamaal Charles won't be stopped
DOLPHINS +5 over Patriots Pats known to struggle in Miami
BUCS -2 over Panthers Two teams trending in opposite directions, McCown steps up
Colts +7.5 over BRONCOS Luck has Colts on Super Bowl radar
LIONS -5.5 over Giants Lions have too much firepower, Eli has down year again
Just for kicks here are my division winners and Super Bowl prediction...
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North - Green Bay Packers
NFC South - New Orleans Saints
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks
NFC Wildcards - Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC West - Denver Broncos
AFC Wildcards - Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers
Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints over New England Patriots
This year there are a few teams looking to bounce back and some that are trending downward. The Atlanta Falcons are a team to keep an eye on as they had a myriad of injuries to their offense a year ago with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson all missing multiple games. On the other hand I feel the Carolina Panthers, a team that won 12 games last season, could possibly see their win totals cut in half due to the fact that Cam Newton has nobody to throw the ball to. Then you have the St. Louis Rams, a team poised to make a move riding a strong defense and Sam Bradford back from an ACL tear that cost him half the 2013 season. Unfortunately for Bradford, and the Rams, he suffered another ACL injury during the preseason and will miss the entire 2014 campaign. However, they still have to play the games and lines will still get posted, and we still have to make picks.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
RAMS -3.5 over Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are a wiseguy pick to have a big turnaround this year and was also discussed a couple weeks ago on my favorite podcast, Behind the Bets, as a team to take the over for season win totals. But I just don't see it. This is a defense that gave up the most points in the league and second most yards in 2013 and on top of that lost their leading sack man (DE Jared Allen) and second leading tackler (LB Erin Henderson). Now we all know how great RB Adrian Peterson is but I don't have much faith in QBs Matt Cassell or Teddy Bridgewater, at least not this early in the season. Yes, I just mentioned the St. Louis Rams lost their QB Sam Bradford for the season, which is a huge blow to this team. However, they signed veteran Shaun Hill in the offseason who jumps into the starting role and should be able to manage the game enough to pull out a few victories. But the Rams are built on their defense, anchored by Robert Quinn who had 19 sacks a year ago. The Vikings will have a hard time scoring and a hard time defending, even against a backup QB.
Bengals +2 over RAVENS
Cincinnati is a team that doesn't seem to get much love. But why not? The Bengals won 11 games last year and finished in the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense. Let's not forget about WR A.J. Green, who is considered the next best receiver in the game behind Calvin Johnson. Also, QB Andy Dalton has steadily improved over his three years and is one of the more consistent QBs in the league. As for the Ravens, they will be without RB Ray Rice their first two games due to a domestic violence suspension and RB Bernard Pierce didn't show us anything last year in ample opportunities rushing for 2.9 YPC. QB Joe Flacco also did not live up to his big contract extension in 2013 throwing for 19 TDs and 22 INTs, showing us that he is a mediocre quarterback.
TEXANS -3 over Redskins
How long will it be before QB Robert Griffin III is replaced by Kirk Cousins? Not because of injury but because of poor play. I know the preseason doesn't mean much but RG3 has not looked good at all. The Texans now have a healthy RB Arian Foster on offense and LB Brian Cushing on defense, both coming back from season ending injuries. Houston also has #1 overall draft pick DE Jadeveon Clowney now paired with the highest paid defensive lineman ever in DE J.J. Watt. This team will be much improved from two wins in 2013. Still not sure on new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick but he can't be much worse than former QB Matt Schaub.
COWBOYS +5 over 49ers
With the suspension of DE Aldon Smith and injury to LB NaVarro Bowman the San Francisco are without two of their best defensive players. Not to mention the departures of S Donte Whitner and CB Carlos Rogers this team had a lot of holes to fill before Week 1. I won't even get into the Cowboys defense because not only were they the worst in the NFL in 2013 but they lost LB Sean Lee to injury and DEs DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher in free agency. Dallas will be the worst defense in the league again in 2014. But, they still have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant who can go off any given Sunday and Terrance Williams should factor in to the passing game a lot more this year. Dallas will most likely lose this game but will keep it close enough to cover.
CARDINALS -3 over Chargers
Somehow the Arizona Cardinals went 10-6 in 2013 and missed the playoffs. Usually double-digit wins guarantees a playoff birth but that's not always the case when your in the same division as the Seahawks and 49ers. But I believe the Cardinals will make the playoffs this year and will finish ahead of San Francisco in the division. With adding LB Larry Foote and CB Antonio Cromartie to a stout defense and RB Andre Ellington ready to breakout, this team will be tough. San Diego is a team I like to make the playoffs also as Keenan Allen was a huge surprise in 2013. But I think Arizona outplays the Chargers on both sides of the ball to take this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Packers +6 over SEAHAWKS Packers remember what happened the last time in Seattle
Saints -3 over FALCONS Great underrated rivalry but Saints poised for big year
Browns +6.5 over STEELERS Hoyer shows why he was picked and keeps it close
Jaguars +10.5 over EAGLES Big number for opening week
JETS -5.5 over Raiders Jets D too much for rookie David Carr
BEARS -7 over Bills Bears offense will put up huge numbers all year
CHIEFS -3.5 over Titans Jamaal Charles won't be stopped
DOLPHINS +5 over Patriots Pats known to struggle in Miami
BUCS -2 over Panthers Two teams trending in opposite directions, McCown steps up
Colts +7.5 over BRONCOS Luck has Colts on Super Bowl radar
LIONS -5.5 over Giants Lions have too much firepower, Eli has down year again
Just for kicks here are my division winners and Super Bowl prediction...
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North - Green Bay Packers
NFC South - New Orleans Saints
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks
NFC Wildcards - Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC West - Denver Broncos
AFC Wildcards - Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers
Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints over New England Patriots
Thursday, August 21, 2014
2014 NFL Season Totals
Welcome back sports fans! The NFL season is right around the corner and I'm back off hiatus to give you the season totals for all 32 teams. This year is a little different as I was at Caesars Palace Las Vegas recently and their betting sheet not only had over/under but also exact for their totals. It adds a big wrinkle to the payouts because the third exact line now reduces the difference between the over/under bets.
What I did this year was create a spreadsheet to mark all the wins and losses as I went through each teams schedule. Once I was finished I added up numbers and I'm not going to lie, some of them I'm not proud of. I don't think Minnesota will be very good but I also don't think they will only have 2 wins. But that's what I came up so I have to stand by my picks.
By the numbers I have 13 overs, 6 exacts, and 13 unders. You can't get more balanced than that. Now comes the part I hate, waiting the entire season to find out the results.
What I did this year was create a spreadsheet to mark all the wins and losses as I went through each teams schedule. Once I was finished I added up numbers and I'm not going to lie, some of them I'm not proud of. I don't think Minnesota will be very good but I also don't think they will only have 2 wins. But that's what I came up so I have to stand by my picks.
| 2014 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 8 (o +120) | 9 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 8 (e +350) | 8 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 (e +350) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 7 (u +120) | 3 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 8 (u +180) | 7 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 9 (o +140) | 12 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 (o EVEN) | 10 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 7 (u EVEN) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 (u -150) | 5 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 11 (o -110) | 13 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8 (e +350) | 8 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| Houston Texans | 8 (u +120) | 5 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 (o +180) | 12 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u +160) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 (u +120) | 6 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 8 (u EVEN) | 7 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 (u +180) | 2 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o EVEN) | 13 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 10 (o +120) | 12 | ||
| New York Giants | 8 (u +160) | 5 | ||
| New York Jets | 7 (e +350) | 7 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (o -120) | 6 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 (o EVEN) | 10 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 (e +350) | 9 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 8 (u +180) | 7 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 (e +350) | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 (o EVEN) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 8 (o +120) | 9 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 (u +150) | 2 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 7 (o EVEN) | 8 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 7 (u +180) | 6 |
By the numbers I have 13 overs, 6 exacts, and 13 unders. You can't get more balanced than that. Now comes the part I hate, waiting the entire season to find out the results.
Friday, January 3, 2014
2013 NFL Season Totals and Pick'em Results
With the 2013 NFL regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start let's take a look at how we did with our predictions for the season totals.
Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line). The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals. However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.
To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line. Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost. I used $20 as my base bet. If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20. Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.
Win/Loss Correct Picks Wrong Picks PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals $234.00 48 33 4
2013 Pick'em Totals $258.00 135 111 10
Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away. I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks. Here are those numbers.
This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out. Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally. To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook. This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 10 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 4 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 12 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 7 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 11 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 8 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 8 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 11 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 6 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 12 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 11 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 7 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 8 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 10 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 8 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 14 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 7 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line). The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals. However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.
To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line. Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost. I used $20 as my base bet. If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20. Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.
Win/Loss Correct Picks Wrong Picks PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals $234.00 48 33 4
2013 Pick'em Totals $258.00 135 111 10
Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away. I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks. Here are those numbers.
| 2013 Season Totals | |
| Fav Cover | 122 |
| Dog Cover | 119 |
| Home Cover | 133 |
| Road Cover | 112 |
| Home/Fav Cover | 85 |
| Road/Dog Cover | 73 |
| Home/Dog Cover | 44 |
| Road/Fav Cover | 36 |
This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out. Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally. To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook. This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.
NFL Week 17 Pick'em
Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money. Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it. The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick. However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason. For the last time, let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Packers -3 over BEARS Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.
Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.
STEELERS -7 over Browns Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.
PATRIOTS -7 over Bills NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.
VIKINGS PK over Lions Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.
Other NFL
FALCONS +6 over Panthers Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.
TITANS -7 over Texans Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.
Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS Defending champs won't go down easy.
COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.
COWBOYS +7 over Eagles Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.
Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.
SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.
Broncos -10 over RAIDERS Peyton setting records, will run up the score.
CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.
Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS KC playing backups, will still cover.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 43-33-4
Overall
Last Week: 10-5-1
Season Total: 124-107-8
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