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Thursday, October 9, 2014

2014 NFL Week 6 Pick'em

After four long weeks we finally had a winning week in the SuperContest with a 4-1 record in Week 5. We saw some great games last week with the Browns rallying from 25 down on the road to beat the Titans, two overtime games where New Orleans and Dallas came out on top, and my Detroit Lions finding a new way to lose. The Lions K Alex Henery missed 3 FGs including a 50-yarder with 21 seconds left which in turn lead to the Bills K Dan Carpenter hitting a GW 58-yard FG of his own. Henery has since been cut and Detroit signed former Broncos K Matt Prater, which makes it 3 kickers in 6 weeks. This week is very interesting betting wise with 8 home/dogs out of 15 games. The means small lines and tougher games pick. But we gotta do, what we gotta do.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BROWNS -1.5 over Steelers

After their huge comeback against the Titans last week, Cleveland is looking to get on the plus side of .500 in a big rivalry game. RB Ben Tate saw his first action since a Week 1 injury and played great rushing for 124 yards on 24 carries. This is a good sign for a team usually known for its defense but who is struggling on that side of the ball this year. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in total defense after being in the top 10 in 2013. However, they've made up for it with the play of QB Brian Hoyer. In Week 1 Hoyer almost lead the Browns back from a 24-point half time deficit against these Steelers only to see Pittsburgh win on a last second FG. This time the Browns won't get down so big, so early and take the win.

FALCONS -3 over Bears

Atlanta can't wait to get back home. After going winless on their two game road trip the Falcons will look to get back on track against the Bears. Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be the biggest beneficiary of returning to the Georgia Dome as he has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INTs at home and 5 TDs with 6 INTs on the road. As for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, who was recently compared to retired QB Jeff George by Brian Billick on "Mike and Mike", threw 2 bad interceptions last week against the Panthers and lost the game down the stretch 31-24. Atlanta WR Devin Hester will also be looking to show out against his old team the same way Steve Smith did in Week 3 against Carolina. Atlanta takes this one.

Patriots -3 over BILLS

Note to self...don't bet against Brady's Pats as home/dogs. Last week I doubted New England, and Brady, and it cost me a 5-0 SC record. I've learned my lesson and the rest of the league took notice that the Pats aren't finished yet. New England waxed the then undefeated Bengals 43-17 and will now take on a 3-2 Bills team that barely escaped a loss in Detroit. This is a big game for both teams as they are tied atop the AFC East and that's why I see the Pats taking it. They knew last week it was a turning point in the season if they won and now that they have they take control on their division.

Cowboys +8 over SEAHAWKS

The Dallas Cowboys are the surprise team of the NFL with a 4-1 record and DeMarco Murray is the surprise player leading the league in rushing. Don't get me wrong, Seattle is the better team but Dallas' running game is what will keep it close. The Seahawks lead league in rushing defense but are yet to face a formidable attack. Their first four game have been against teams ranked in the bottom 20 in rushing. Seattle's defense has been good but not great this season as they've only forced 3 turnovers thus far, although Dallas is one of the more turnover prone teams (but so was Washington who had 0 TOs last week). Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also been a better game manager as of late with an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Seattle wins but Dallas covers.

RAMS +3.5 over 49ers     Austin Davis putting up numbers

St. Louis has had a rough season even before it actually started with QB Sam Bradford going down for the year and their defense not living up to their expectations. But ever since QB Austin Davis has been inserted in to the starting lineup in Week 2 they have been competitive and are 2-1 ATS. In his last two games Davis has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners are 3-2 overall but only 1-4 ATS. Their defense ranks 2nd in the league and all the signs are pointing to San Francisco taking this game but they have been keeping their opponents within striking distance.

Other NFL in 10 or less

Colts -3 over TEXANS     Texans don't have D to stop Luck

JETS +10 over Broncos     Only because of double digit home/dog

TITANS -5 over Jaguars     Even if Whitehurst starts since Jags are embarrassing

DOLPHINS +3.5 over Packers     Miami decent at home and defense is in top 10

Lions -1.5 over VIKINGS     Lions finally have a kicker, can now win close games

Panthers +6.5 over BENGALS     No AJ Green limits Cincy's scoring ability

Ravens -3 over BUCS     Despite last week, Ravens offense playing well

RAIDERS +7 over Chargers     New coach, 2 weeks rest, rivarly, SD first ATS loss

Redskins +3.5 over CARDINALS     Logan Thomas will struggle too much for Arizona

EAGLES -3 over Giants     Gonna be a shootout and no Jennings for NYG


SuperContest
Last Week:  4-1
Season Total:  11-14

Overall
Last Week:  7-8
Season Total:  34-42

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