After getting a good response at the end of the last NFL season, I decided to bring you my picks again for 2014. For those of you that are new to the blog, the Las Vegas Hotel holds the LVH SuperContest every NFL season where sharps and squares pick five games against the spread each week. The entry fee is $1,500 and last year's winner took home $542,850. Now since I don't have that kind of money to do it for real, we do it here for fun as we keep track of our record all season. Last year we finished just slightly "out of the money" as we had a 47-34-4 record (49 points as each push is .5 points). Along with the SuperContest picks, I'll also give you every game ATS just in case you feel like getting frisky with your local bookie.
This year there are a few teams looking to bounce back and some that are trending downward. The Atlanta Falcons are a team to keep an eye on as they had a myriad of injuries to their offense a year ago with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson all missing multiple games. On the other hand I feel the Carolina Panthers, a team that won 12 games last season, could possibly see their win totals cut in half due to the fact that Cam Newton has nobody to throw the ball to. Then you have the St. Louis Rams, a team poised to make a move riding a strong defense and Sam Bradford back from an ACL tear that cost him half the 2013 season. Unfortunately for Bradford, and the Rams, he suffered another ACL injury during the preseason and will miss the entire 2014 campaign. However, they still have to play the games and lines will still get posted, and we still have to make picks.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
RAMS -3.5 over Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are a wiseguy pick to have a big turnaround this year and was also discussed a couple weeks ago on my favorite podcast, Behind the Bets, as a team to take the over for season win totals. But I just don't see it. This is a defense that gave up the most points in the league and second most yards in 2013 and on top of that lost their leading sack man (DE Jared Allen) and second leading tackler (LB Erin Henderson). Now we all know how great RB Adrian Peterson is but I don't have much faith in QBs Matt Cassell or Teddy Bridgewater, at least not this early in the season. Yes, I just mentioned the St. Louis Rams lost their QB Sam Bradford for the season, which is a huge blow to this team. However, they signed veteran Shaun Hill in the offseason who jumps into the starting role and should be able to manage the game enough to pull out a few victories. But the Rams are built on their defense, anchored by Robert Quinn who had 19 sacks a year ago. The Vikings will have a hard time scoring and a hard time defending, even against a backup QB.
Bengals +2 over RAVENS
Cincinnati is a team that doesn't seem to get much love. But why not? The Bengals won 11 games last year and finished in the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense. Let's not forget about WR A.J. Green, who is considered the next best receiver in the game behind Calvin Johnson. Also, QB Andy Dalton has steadily improved over his three years and is one of the more consistent QBs in the league. As for the Ravens, they will be without RB Ray Rice their first two games due to a domestic violence suspension and RB Bernard Pierce didn't show us anything last year in ample opportunities rushing for 2.9 YPC. QB Joe Flacco also did not live up to his big contract extension in 2013 throwing for 19 TDs and 22 INTs, showing us that he is a mediocre quarterback.
TEXANS -3 over Redskins
How long will it be before QB Robert Griffin III is replaced by Kirk Cousins? Not because of injury but because of poor play. I know the preseason doesn't mean much but RG3 has not looked good at all. The Texans now have a healthy RB Arian Foster on offense and LB Brian Cushing on defense, both coming back from season ending injuries. Houston also has #1 overall draft pick DE Jadeveon Clowney now paired with the highest paid defensive lineman ever in DE J.J. Watt. This team will be much improved from two wins in 2013. Still not sure on new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick but he can't be much worse than former QB Matt Schaub.
COWBOYS +5 over 49ers
With the suspension of DE Aldon Smith and injury to LB NaVarro Bowman the San Francisco are without two of their best defensive players. Not to mention the departures of S Donte Whitner and CB Carlos Rogers this team had a lot of holes to fill before Week 1. I won't even get into the Cowboys defense because not only were they the worst in the NFL in 2013 but they lost LB Sean Lee to injury and DEs DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher in free agency. Dallas will be the worst defense in the league again in 2014. But, they still have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant who can go off any given Sunday and Terrance Williams should factor in to the passing game a lot more this year. Dallas will most likely lose this game but will keep it close enough to cover.
CARDINALS -3 over Chargers
Somehow the Arizona Cardinals went 10-6 in 2013 and missed the playoffs. Usually double-digit wins guarantees a playoff birth but that's not always the case when your in the same division as the Seahawks and 49ers. But I believe the Cardinals will make the playoffs this year and will finish ahead of San Francisco in the division. With adding LB Larry Foote and CB Antonio Cromartie to a stout defense and RB Andre Ellington ready to breakout, this team will be tough. San Diego is a team I like to make the playoffs also as Keenan Allen was a huge surprise in 2013. But I think Arizona outplays the Chargers on both sides of the ball to take this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Packers +6 over SEAHAWKS Packers remember what happened the last time in Seattle
Saints -3 over FALCONS Great underrated rivalry but Saints poised for big year
Browns +6.5 over STEELERS Hoyer shows why he was picked and keeps it close
Jaguars +10.5 over EAGLES Big number for opening week
JETS -5.5 over Raiders Jets D too much for rookie David Carr
BEARS -7 over Bills Bears offense will put up huge numbers all year
CHIEFS -3.5 over Titans Jamaal Charles won't be stopped
DOLPHINS +5 over Patriots Pats known to struggle in Miami
BUCS -2 over Panthers Two teams trending in opposite directions, McCown steps up
Colts +7.5 over BRONCOS Luck has Colts on Super Bowl radar
LIONS -5.5 over Giants Lions have too much firepower, Eli has down year again
Just for kicks here are my division winners and Super Bowl prediction...
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North - Green Bay Packers
NFC South - New Orleans Saints
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks
NFC Wildcards - Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC West - Denver Broncos
AFC Wildcards - Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers
Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints over New England Patriots
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