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Thursday, September 25, 2014

2014 NFL Week 4 Pick'em

The Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and Denver will be one of the best games this year. Broncos' QB Peyton Manning's late 4th quarter comeback down 8 with less than a minute left and no timeouts to tie the game at 20 was nothing less than spectacular. However, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson got the ball to start overtime and never let Peyton get his hands on it. Wilson led Seattle 80 yards in 5:46 to score the game winning touchdown capped off by a Marshawn Lynch 6 yard TD run. In OT, Wilson kept the drive alive with legs scrambling on 3rd down twice to get the first. He now has a 7-0 combined record against Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. The big surprise was my Detroit Lions defense shutting down Rodgers and the Packers. The defense line for Detroit was outstanding keeping pressure on Rodgers allowing only 162 yards passing yards. Week 3 finally brought us our first winning week overall but still a loss for the SuperContest. This week the two big games to keep your eye on are the Packers at Bears and Saints at Cowboys. Let's do it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

REDSKINS -3 over Giants

I know they didn't win the game, but how about the performance Kirk Cousins had last week. He threw for 427 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 INT in a 37-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins now faces a Giants defense that ranks 22nd in pass defense. We all know Eli Manning has been struggling but one thing New York has going for them is newly acquired RB Rashad Jennings who has the 3rd most rushing yards in the NFL with 286. Unfortunately for Jennings he's going up against the 3rd best rushing defense in Washington that is only giving up 64.7 yards per game. Not to mention, the home teams in Thursday night games are 3-0 with a 118-36 point differential.

BEARS +2 over Packers

After winning 2 straight road games the Chicago Bears head home to take on division rival Green Bay. These Bears have been giving up a lot of yards but are tied for the league lead in takeaways (8) and INTs (6). QB Jay Cutler has also been playing well throwing for 8 TDs and only 2 INTs while spreading the ball to WRs Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, TE Martellus Bennett, and RB Matt Forte. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers has struggled mightily on the road throwing for less than 200 yards at Seattle and at Detroit. And guess what...this is another road game. RB Eddie Lacy is also having a bad year for Green Bay rushing for only 113 yards in 3 games. The Packers are having a hard time scoring and a hard time stoping other teams from scoring giving up 26.3 point per game. The Chicago Bears are looking to get revenge after Green Bay kept them out of the playoffs last year with the defense losing Randall Cobb for the game-winning touchdown in the last minute.

RAVENS -3 over Panthers

For 13 years WR Steve Smith was the leader of the Carolina Panthers recording 7 season with 1,000+ receiving yards but had a down year in 2013 with only 745 yards. Now with the Baltimore Ravens, Smith has been rejuvenated. He already has 290 yards in 3 games and has quickly become QB Joe Flacco's favorite target. As for Smith's replacement in Carolina, rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin has been a pleasant surprise with 253 yards and 2 TDs. Where the Panthers have had trouble is the ground game, they are averaging 72.3 yards which is good for 29th in the NFL. Since Cam Newton was drafted by Carolina in 2011, the Panthers have never ranked lower than 11th. We expected the Ravens to struggle with their rushing attack without RB Ray Rice but the committee of Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, and Lorenzo Taliaferro has the Ravens currently ranked 8th in the NFL in rushing. Baltimore will get it done at home against a tough Carolina defense.

Falcons -2.5 over VIKINGS

Without RB Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings have failed to score double digits in 2 straight games. The Flacons don't have the best defense in the league but are currently leading the NFL in total offense (455) and points per game (34.3). WR Julio Jones seems to be fully recovered from last years season ending injury as he has 365 receiving yards which also leads the league. Minnesota will be starting rookie 1st rounder QB Teddy Bridgewater for the first time as QB Matt Cassel suffered a broken foot against the Saints in Week 2 and is out for the year. Many experts thought Bridgewater was the most NFL ready quarterback in the 2013 draft and the Vikings are hoping they are correct. However, he won't be able to put up enough points in this one to keep up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons high powered offense.

COWBOYS +3 over Saints

This game will be your classic shootout. Both teams can score and both teams have problems on defense. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray has been a beast running for over 100 yards and scoring 1 touchdown in each of his first 3 games. The Saints running game actually looked good the first 2 weeks with RB Mark Ingram averaging 6.0 yards per carry but he went down with a fractured hand and New Orleans went down to 3.4 yards per carry in Week 3. Saints QB Drew Brees has been good but not great so far and Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been his normal up and down self but has improved each week. In a game with good offense and no defense, it's always smart to go with the home team.

Other NFL in 10 or less

RAIDERS +3.5 over Dolphins in London     London keeps getting screwed with bad games

TEXANS -3 over Bills     If Foster plays Houston will control the game

COLTS -7.5 over Titans     Indy found its stride against Jax and Luck is rolling

Lions -1.5 over JETS     Lions defense confident after shutting down GB

STEELERS -7.5 over Bucs     Can't take the Bucs until they show me something

Jaguars +13 over CHARGERS     Blake Bortles keeps it close

Eagles +5.5 over 49ERS     49ers D struggling and Philly can score

CHIEFS +3.5 over Patriots     Don't know what's up with Brady, take Home/Dog

SuperContest
Last Week:  2-3
Season Total:  5-10

Overall
Last Week:  9-7
Season Total:  20-28

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