Well that was painful. After two winning weeks in the SuperContest I totally bombed and went 1-4. I was completely wrong about the Vikings-Browns game as the Vikings are a lot worse than I expected and Josh Gordon's return to the Browns was a big difference for that team, even without T-Rich. Also, I thought I had the Packers game wrapped up until a fumble return for a touchdown. One thing I'm learning as I pick every game and take notes is how great home field advantage is in the NFL. We all know that playing at home helps but last week the home team went 10-5-1 ATS. And for the season, home underdogs are 8-4. That's a big number considering that home-dogs usually occur when top ten teams are visitors. This week we have 7 home-dogs (excluding the Steelers-Vikings being played in London) so we will get an even better feel for the home field advantage lesser teams receive against better opponents. Hopefully Week 4 goes a little smoother with that in mind.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -4 over Giants
Kansas City has looked like a completely different team with Andy Reid at the helm. Alex Smith has been a great addition as well managing games, but is still hesitant to take shots down field (why did I draft Dwayne Bowe?). On the other side, the Giants are 0-3 after an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Carolina last week. What's happened to Eli and this defense? And don't even get me started on David Wilson. He had so much hype in the fantasy world coming into this year and has been one of the biggest busts. The Chiefs defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL and Eli has been turnover prone so go with KC.
Seahawks -3 over TEXANS
Many are thinking this is a game Seattle will lose but I don't. It will be a close game and a good test but the Texans are too banged up. All-Pro wideout Andre Johnson is questionable and even if he plays he has to deal with the best secondary in the NFL. It's very possible Houston could be 0-3 after needing comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee. Arian Foster has also been off his game rushing for only 3.9 YPC. The Seahawks are the best in the league along with Denver and I don't see them dropping a game anytime soon.
TITANS -3.5 over Jets
Jake Locker has been calm and steady so far for the Titans, committing zero turnovers in three games with a 2-1 record. If they can get more out of Chris Johnson (3.7 YPC) this team could be even more dangerous. The Jets are also 2-1 after Geno Smith got the better of fellow rookie EJ Manuel last week 27-20. These teams are very similar in their style. Both feature running first offenses with QB's they want to manage games by not turning the ball over. In situations like this I like to ride the home team. Young QB's seem to have a hard time on the road and Smith showed it at New England throwing four INTs. Locker will have better ball security and pull out the win.
CHARGERS +2 over Cowboys
Welcome to the Philip Rivers revival tour. Just when we all thought he was done after two mediocre years, Rivers is off to a blazing start. He's completing 70% of his passes while throwing eight TD's with only one INT. Tony Romo hasn't been too far behind for the Cowboys either with six TD's and one INT. This game will be back and forth all day but I feel like San Diego will have the ball last and get the game winning score.
Bears +3 over LIONS
It's never good when your second best receiver breaks his arm trying to save some pizzas from falling off his front seat in the car. That's what happened to Lions WR Nate Burleson and yes, that's embarrassing. The last thing the Lions need are less weapons on the field so the defense can focus on Calvin Johnson. Detroit expects to have Reggie Bush back however and that creates a potent 1-2 punch with Joique Bell. But, even with Brian Urlacher retiring the Bears defense has been just as good as ever. They lead the NFL with 11 takeaways and 3 defensive touchdowns (the same as the Bucs and Jags offenses). Jay Cutler has been a little erratic but has this team at 3-0. This will be a close game down to the wire but I have Chicago covering.
Other NFL in 10 or less
RAMS +3 over 49ers Too many injuries for SF on offense and defense.
BILLS +3.5 over Ravens Buffalo keeps it close with ground game.
BROWNS +4.5 over Bengals Battle for Ohio and Hoyer has offense moving.
Colts -8 over JAGUARS Can't get myself to take the Jags again.
Cardinals +2.5 over BUCS Bucs in shambles and starting rookie QB Mike Glennon.
Vikings +2 over Steelers Congrats London, you get to watch two 0-3 teams.
Redskins -3 over RAIDERS If Pryor doesn't play, offense can't put up enough points.
BRONCOS -10.5 over Eagles More possessions, means more points for the Broncos.
FALCONS -2 over Patriots Atlanta at home on Sunday night, can't pass it up.
SAINTS -6.5 over Dolphins Miami short on D and can't keep up with Saints.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 8-7
Overall
Last Week: 7-8-1
Season Total: 24-21-2
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Thursday, September 19, 2013
NFL Week 3 Pick'em
The big news in the NFL was Trent Richardson being dealt to the
Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick. When I saw this I
didn't believe it. T-Rich was the #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft and
he's already been traded. If the Browns are interested in rebuilding wouldn't you want to do that around a great running back like Richardson? I'm kind of confused but I do know that the Browns will have a hard time winning games now and I guess they are in a fight for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft with Jacksonville.
It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend. However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2. It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone. The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again. They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread). Let's get back on track in Week 3.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns
I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now. The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help. Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer. Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson. But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball. This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home. AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown.
Bills +2.5 over JETS
Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team. Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York. Last week was a perfect example of this. Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10. However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23. I'll take the better QB and the points.
DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons
I totally doubted Miami coming into this year. I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace. But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around. Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions. Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1. Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug. They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel. Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor. Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.
Packers -3 over BENGALS
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day. Green Bay also found new life at the running back position. After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild. Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD. The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers. Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends. This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.
Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS
I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago. They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs. Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's. For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory. The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough. Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Chiefs +3 over EAGLES Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.
TITANS -3 over Chargers Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.
Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.
RAVENS +2.5 over Texans Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.
Rams +4 over COWBOYS Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.
Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.
PANTHERS -1 over Giants Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.
Colts +10 over 49ERS Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.
STEELERS +2.5 over Bears Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.
BRONCOS -15 over Raiders Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 7-3
Overall
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 17-13-1
It was a struggle last week as we needed the Sunday and Monday night games just to get back to .500 for the weekend. However, the SuperContest stats were improved going 3-2. It could have been better but the New Orleans Saints won and didn't cover as they couldn't finish in the redzone. The Tennessee Titans and San Diego Chargers both covered big numbers again. They look like projected bad teams to keep our eye this year. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are also 2-0 ATS (against the spread). Let's get back on track in Week 3.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 over Browns
I liked this game before Richardson was traded and like it even more now. The Browns offense has been inept in its first two games and losing their best offensive player won't help. Neither will starting the third string quarterback Brian Hoyer. Cleveland's defense is definitely better than average and have the ability to stop Adrian Peterson. But they will be on the field a lot since their offense will have a hard time controlling the ball. This also will be Minnesota's first home game as they are only one of three teams yet to play at home. AP will eventually find holes in the defense and Christian Ponder will play well enough in the dome to cover by a touchdown.
Bills +2.5 over JETS
Even though the Jets covered and could have won last week at New England I still have no faith in this team. Both are led by rookie QB's but EJ Manuel has looked better for Buffalo than Geno Smith has for New York. Last week was a perfect example of this. Smith had the opportunity to make a comeback against the Patriots but threw three 4th quarter interceptions to lose 13-10. However, Manuel went 80 yards in 1:36 to throw the game winner to Steve Johnson with two seconds left as the Bills beat the Panthers 24-23. I'll take the better QB and the points.
DOLPHINS -2.5 over Falcons
I totally doubted Miami coming into this year. I had no faith in Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, or Mike Wallace. But after two road wins to open the season I'm starting to come around. Tannehill has managed games well and not made too many bad decisions. Miller is still struggling but Wallace had 115 yards and a TD last week after complaining about not getting enough targets in week 1. Atlanta comes into this game after being hit with the injury bug. They will be without starting running back Steven Jackson, defensive end Kory Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and possibly cornerback Asante Samuel. Wideout Roddy White has been battling an ankle injury to start the season and has been a none factor. Too many problems for the Falcons so go with Miami.
Packers -3 over BENGALS
The Green Bay Packers absolutely dismantled the Redskins defense as Aaron Rodgers was on point all day. Green Bay also found new life at the running back position. After rookie Eddie Lacy went down on his first run of the game with a concussion, James Starks entered and went wild. Starks finished with 132 yards and one TD. The Bengals looked good last week as well taking down the Steelers. Their defense has been solid and Andy Dalton seems to be clicking with AJ Green and his tight ends. This could turn into a shootout between these two QB's and if it does Rodgers has a lot more weapons to choose from.
Cardinals +7.5 over SAINTS
I felt with Sean Payton back this year the New Orleans Saints would be back to playoff form from two years ago. They are 2-0, so definitely on pace to make the postseason after missing it in 2012, but have not looked convincing especially after squeaking by the Bucs. Drew Brees isn't off to his best start either, throwing three touchdowns and three INT's. For Arizona, Carson Palmer led a late touchdown drive against the Lions to take a 25-21 victory. The Cardinals might not win enough games to make the playoffs but they will play a lot of teams tough. Getting a touchdown for an Arizona offense that can put up points is a good reason for me to take the underdog.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Chiefs +3 over EAGLES Andy Reid comes back to Philly and gets a win.
TITANS -3 over Chargers Tennessee finally gets a home game and have looked good.
Bucs +7 over PATRIOTS If Gronk doesn't play Pats still have offensive struggles.
RAVENS +2.5 over Texans Rice's health a concern but Texans have been sloppy.
Rams +4 over COWBOYS Rams passing attack keeps it close in big D.
Lions +2.5 over REDSKINS Skins have worst defense in NFL, Stafford has field day.
PANTHERS -1 over Giants Panthers should have won last week, bounce back at home.
Colts +10 over 49ERS Colts pumped by getting T-Rich, Niners on a short week.
Jaguars +19 over SEAHAWKS Getting 3 touchdowns is hard to pass up.
STEELERS +2.5 over Bears Tough to see the Steelers start 0-3 even with injuries.
BRONCOS -15 over Raiders Rolling with Peyton until their offense slows down.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 7-3
Overall
Last Week: 8-8
Season Total: 17-13-1
Thursday, September 12, 2013
NFL Week 2 Pick'em
Week 1 looked fantastic going into the Monday night games, but finishing 0-2 turned it into just a good weekend. Overall 9-5 isn't too bad to start with and neither is 4-1 for the SuperContest. We saw a lot of players go off (Peyton Manning) and a few teams really disappoint (Pittsburgh Steelers). The New England Patriots and Houston Texans had a hard time winning on the road and didn't cover. Chip Kelly's offense in Philadelphia looked really scary in Washington with Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy, but Robert Griffin III seemed rusty coming off knee surgery. Here's what Week 2 looks like.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Jets +12 over PATRIOTS
New England struggled mightily last week playing at Buffalo. The receiving core looked out of place all game and they were even running into each other on routes. That was until the last drive when Tom Brady went 6-6 with Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen that lead to the game winning field goal. This week Amendola (groin) and Vereen (wrist) are both out. The Jets barely squeaked by Tampa Bay at home 18-17 on a last second FG of their own. They aren't a team I'm very fond of this year, but the Pats are vulnerable. New England has a lot of injury problems as well as chemistry issues and I think 12 is too much to cover in this rivalry.
BEARS -6 over Vikings
The Vikings and Adrian Peterson started off great with a 78-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage against the Detroit Lions. After that Peterson only managed 15 yards on the ground. Chicago has a very solid defense as well and are coming off a big home win over Cincinnati. The Bears will be able to slow down AP just enough and put enough points on the board that Christian Ponder will have to throw. If that happens, the Bears secondary will be feasting on INTs all day. Minnesota made the playoffs a year ago but will finish last in the NFC North this year.
Saints -3 over BUCS
One of the most disappointing losses went to Tampa Bay last week. A late hit on Jets QB Geno Smith put New York in position for the game winning field goal. I didn't expect much this year from TB outside of Doug Martin but he had a rough go as well with only 65 yards at 2.7 per carry. New Orleans on the other hand played well taking down Atlanta in the return of Sean Payton. The Saints had one of the worst defenses in the league last year but held the Falcons to only 17 points. If that defense shows up again this week it will be a long day for Tampa Bay.
SEAHAWKS -3 over 49ers
The top two teams in many power rankings will go head to head in the Sunday night game. San Francisco is coming off a huge win over the Packers 34-28 and Colin Kaepernick showed he's legit. Seattle had a tough time on the east coast against Carolina but came out with a win 12-7. The Seahawks were probably looking to the 49ers and their play suffered against the Panthers but that won't happen this week. Seattle wants to prove they are not only the best team in the NFC West but also the best team in the league. They have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and their fans will be ready for the home opener.
RAIDERS -5.5 over Jaguars
From two of the best teams, to two of the worst teams in the league. Terrelle Pryor almost led Oakland to one of the biggest upsets last week but fell short to the Colts 21-17. As for Jacksonville, they only managed to score 2 points off a blocked punt that went out of the end zone against the Chiefs. The Jaguars have no offense whatsoever as teams will load up the box to stop Maurice Jones-Drew because they have two of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Blaine Gabbert is out with a cut on his throwing hand, which means Chad Henne will get the start. The Raiders have a nice running game with Darren McFadden (when healthy) and now Pryor. Their defense isn't great but the Jags offense will look just as bad this week and have a difficult time to score enough to cover.
Other NFL in 10 or less
EAGLES -7.5 over Chargers West coast teams struggle in 1:00pm east coast games.
Browns +6.5 over RAVENS Browns always keep close with Baltimore, 7 would be better.
TEXANS -9 over Titans Houston will find its offensive legs at home.
Dolphins +3 over COLTS Miami proved me wrong last week. Take them this week.
BILLS +3 over Panthers Hard to pass up home teams with points.
ATLANTA -6.5 over Rams Too much firepower in the Georgia Dome.
Redskins +7.5 over PACKERS RG3 came to life late last week. Should be shootout.
CHIEFS -3 over Cowboys I'm high on the Chiefs this year.
CARDINALS +1.5 over Lions Arizona won 38-10 last year and both teams have improved.
GIANTS +4.5 over Broncos Eli always plays big in big games.
BENGALS -7 over Steelers Steelers looked terrible and lost standouts Pouncey and Foote.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 4-1
Overall
Last Week: 9-5-1
Season Total: 9-5-1
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Jets +12 over PATRIOTS
New England struggled mightily last week playing at Buffalo. The receiving core looked out of place all game and they were even running into each other on routes. That was until the last drive when Tom Brady went 6-6 with Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen that lead to the game winning field goal. This week Amendola (groin) and Vereen (wrist) are both out. The Jets barely squeaked by Tampa Bay at home 18-17 on a last second FG of their own. They aren't a team I'm very fond of this year, but the Pats are vulnerable. New England has a lot of injury problems as well as chemistry issues and I think 12 is too much to cover in this rivalry.
BEARS -6 over Vikings
The Vikings and Adrian Peterson started off great with a 78-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage against the Detroit Lions. After that Peterson only managed 15 yards on the ground. Chicago has a very solid defense as well and are coming off a big home win over Cincinnati. The Bears will be able to slow down AP just enough and put enough points on the board that Christian Ponder will have to throw. If that happens, the Bears secondary will be feasting on INTs all day. Minnesota made the playoffs a year ago but will finish last in the NFC North this year.
Saints -3 over BUCS
One of the most disappointing losses went to Tampa Bay last week. A late hit on Jets QB Geno Smith put New York in position for the game winning field goal. I didn't expect much this year from TB outside of Doug Martin but he had a rough go as well with only 65 yards at 2.7 per carry. New Orleans on the other hand played well taking down Atlanta in the return of Sean Payton. The Saints had one of the worst defenses in the league last year but held the Falcons to only 17 points. If that defense shows up again this week it will be a long day for Tampa Bay.
SEAHAWKS -3 over 49ers
The top two teams in many power rankings will go head to head in the Sunday night game. San Francisco is coming off a huge win over the Packers 34-28 and Colin Kaepernick showed he's legit. Seattle had a tough time on the east coast against Carolina but came out with a win 12-7. The Seahawks were probably looking to the 49ers and their play suffered against the Panthers but that won't happen this week. Seattle wants to prove they are not only the best team in the NFC West but also the best team in the league. They have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and their fans will be ready for the home opener.
RAIDERS -5.5 over Jaguars
From two of the best teams, to two of the worst teams in the league. Terrelle Pryor almost led Oakland to one of the biggest upsets last week but fell short to the Colts 21-17. As for Jacksonville, they only managed to score 2 points off a blocked punt that went out of the end zone against the Chiefs. The Jaguars have no offense whatsoever as teams will load up the box to stop Maurice Jones-Drew because they have two of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Blaine Gabbert is out with a cut on his throwing hand, which means Chad Henne will get the start. The Raiders have a nice running game with Darren McFadden (when healthy) and now Pryor. Their defense isn't great but the Jags offense will look just as bad this week and have a difficult time to score enough to cover.
Other NFL in 10 or less
EAGLES -7.5 over Chargers West coast teams struggle in 1:00pm east coast games.
Browns +6.5 over RAVENS Browns always keep close with Baltimore, 7 would be better.
TEXANS -9 over Titans Houston will find its offensive legs at home.
Dolphins +3 over COLTS Miami proved me wrong last week. Take them this week.
BILLS +3 over Panthers Hard to pass up home teams with points.
ATLANTA -6.5 over Rams Too much firepower in the Georgia Dome.
Redskins +7.5 over PACKERS RG3 came to life late last week. Should be shootout.
CHIEFS -3 over Cowboys I'm high on the Chiefs this year.
CARDINALS +1.5 over Lions Arizona won 38-10 last year and both teams have improved.
GIANTS +4.5 over Broncos Eli always plays big in big games.
BENGALS -7 over Steelers Steelers looked terrible and lost standouts Pouncey and Foote.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 4-1
Overall
Last Week: 9-5-1
Season Total: 9-5-1
Monday, September 9, 2013
NFL Week 1 Pick'em
The NFL season kicked off yesterday with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos disposing of the defending champion Baltimore Ravens 49-27. I was in Las Vegas for the game and there is nothing like being in a casino sports book during the NFL. Every week squares and sharps lineup to test their football knowledge against the spreads trying to show they know more than the bookmakers. The biggest draw for average joes and professionals to compete against the odds is the SuperContest at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.
The SuperContest is to sports gamblers as the World Series of Poker is to poker players. There is a $1,500 entry fee and each week you pick 5 NFL games against the spread. Last year was its biggest with 745 entries and over $1.1 million in the prize pool with the winner receiving $447,000. I've always been fascinated with the world of sports betting, but since I'm broke I can't enter the SuperContest. So I'm going to pick my 5 NFL games on here as well as the rest of the games each week. I'll track my stats and see if I can reach the 60% mark by the end of the season, which is what players usually need to hit to get in the money. I will use the lines I find on SportsMemo's live odds page, because they show up to the minute odds for the Las Vegas Hilton. Also, keep in mind that when it comes to sports betting I'm like Remo Gaggi, a degenerate that only gets it right if Sam 'Ace' Rothstein is making my plays. So without further ado...
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
With Carson Palmer joining the Cardinals this offseason, this offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at the helm and the team boasting three 1,000 yard receivers. Now, I don't think this team will make the Super Bowl like in 2008 or even the playoffs. But Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd will put up big numbers in Bruce Arians pass happy offense. Their defense is solid as well and St. Louis will have a tough time keeping up on the points.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I'm not buying into all the hype around the Miami Dolphins this year. Ryan Tannehill showed me nothing last season (12 TDs and 13 INTs) for me to believe in his drastic improvement. Also, I don't see Lamar Miller as a solid starting RB in the NFL and Mike Wallace will be a flop. I'm not sold on the Browns by any means either, but one guy I am high on is Trent Richardson. The Dolphins will struggle to stop T-Rich and also cover TE Jordan Cameron (huge fantasy sleeper).
Chiefs -3.5 over JAGUARS
The Kansas City Chiefs will be one the most improved teams in 2013 and it's all because of Alex Smith (I never thought I'd say that). But the thing about Smith is that he won't wow you with stats but he usually won't lose a game for you either. And that's exactly what the Chiefs need. With a great back like Jamaal Charles and a defense that had three Pro-Bowlers a year ago (one at each level), this team will challenge for the playoffs. On the other hand, Jacksonville will challenge for worst team in the league.
LIONS -5 over Vikings
Oh, our favorite Detroit Lions. This is really hard to put confidence in this game because every time we start to have confidence with the Lions they quickly disappoint us, usually painfully. But I think the addition of Reggie Bush is really big, and not even for the running game, but the passing attack. Last year Matthew Stafford threw the ball a NFL record 727 times. Bush will work wonders on screens and in the flats (top-5 RB in PPR leagues). As for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league but that happens to be the Lions strong suit on defense. Peterson will go off, but not enough to cover for the Vikes.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Giants
In a classic rivalry like Cowboys-Giants it's tough to predict a winner because anything can happen. However, the Giants have won every game (4) at Jerry Jones' new massive stadium, which tells me the Cowboys are due to put an end to that streak. Tony Romo I feel is fit to have a solid year and with how well Dez Bryant played down the stretch in 2012, this offense will put up points. It will come down to their defense stopping Eli Manning. The Giants have their share of solid receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and an emerging Rueben Randle but Dallas will get just enough out of their D to prevail.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Patriots -10 over BILLS Buffalo is another team in contention for worst in NFL.
Titans +7 over STEELERS Pittsburgh will struggle to score enough to cover 7.
SAINTS -3 over Falcons In a shootout you always go with the home favorite.
Bucs -3.5 over JETS Jets don't have a quarterback, Bucs have a muscle hamster.
BEARS -3 over Bengals Bears defense will be too much.
Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS Seattle shows why they are the early Super Bowl favorite.
Raiders +10 over COLTS Look for the Colts to have a down year.
49ERS -4.5 over Packers San Fran's defense will be the difference.
REDSKINS -4 over Eagles College coaches struggle in the NFL until proven otherwise.
Texans -5 over CHARGERS Chargers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Houston.
The SuperContest is to sports gamblers as the World Series of Poker is to poker players. There is a $1,500 entry fee and each week you pick 5 NFL games against the spread. Last year was its biggest with 745 entries and over $1.1 million in the prize pool with the winner receiving $447,000. I've always been fascinated with the world of sports betting, but since I'm broke I can't enter the SuperContest. So I'm going to pick my 5 NFL games on here as well as the rest of the games each week. I'll track my stats and see if I can reach the 60% mark by the end of the season, which is what players usually need to hit to get in the money. I will use the lines I find on SportsMemo's live odds page, because they show up to the minute odds for the Las Vegas Hilton. Also, keep in mind that when it comes to sports betting I'm like Remo Gaggi, a degenerate that only gets it right if Sam 'Ace' Rothstein is making my plays. So without further ado...
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Cardinals +4.5 over RAMS
With Carson Palmer joining the Cardinals this offseason, this offense could be reminiscent of the 2008 season with Kurt Warner at the helm and the team boasting three 1,000 yard receivers. Now, I don't think this team will make the Super Bowl like in 2008 or even the playoffs. But Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts, and Michael Floyd will put up big numbers in Bruce Arians pass happy offense. Their defense is solid as well and St. Louis will have a tough time keeping up on the points.
BROWNS -1 over Dolphins
I'm not buying into all the hype around the Miami Dolphins this year. Ryan Tannehill showed me nothing last season (12 TDs and 13 INTs) for me to believe in his drastic improvement. Also, I don't see Lamar Miller as a solid starting RB in the NFL and Mike Wallace will be a flop. I'm not sold on the Browns by any means either, but one guy I am high on is Trent Richardson. The Dolphins will struggle to stop T-Rich and also cover TE Jordan Cameron (huge fantasy sleeper).
Chiefs -3.5 over JAGUARS
The Kansas City Chiefs will be one the most improved teams in 2013 and it's all because of Alex Smith (I never thought I'd say that). But the thing about Smith is that he won't wow you with stats but he usually won't lose a game for you either. And that's exactly what the Chiefs need. With a great back like Jamaal Charles and a defense that had three Pro-Bowlers a year ago (one at each level), this team will challenge for the playoffs. On the other hand, Jacksonville will challenge for worst team in the league.
LIONS -5 over Vikings
Oh, our favorite Detroit Lions. This is really hard to put confidence in this game because every time we start to have confidence with the Lions they quickly disappoint us, usually painfully. But I think the addition of Reggie Bush is really big, and not even for the running game, but the passing attack. Last year Matthew Stafford threw the ball a NFL record 727 times. Bush will work wonders on screens and in the flats (top-5 RB in PPR leagues). As for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the best back in the league but that happens to be the Lions strong suit on defense. Peterson will go off, but not enough to cover for the Vikes.
COWBOYS -3.5 over Giants
In a classic rivalry like Cowboys-Giants it's tough to predict a winner because anything can happen. However, the Giants have won every game (4) at Jerry Jones' new massive stadium, which tells me the Cowboys are due to put an end to that streak. Tony Romo I feel is fit to have a solid year and with how well Dez Bryant played down the stretch in 2012, this offense will put up points. It will come down to their defense stopping Eli Manning. The Giants have their share of solid receivers in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and an emerging Rueben Randle but Dallas will get just enough out of their D to prevail.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Patriots -10 over BILLS Buffalo is another team in contention for worst in NFL.
Titans +7 over STEELERS Pittsburgh will struggle to score enough to cover 7.
SAINTS -3 over Falcons In a shootout you always go with the home favorite.
Bucs -3.5 over JETS Jets don't have a quarterback, Bucs have a muscle hamster.
BEARS -3 over Bengals Bears defense will be too much.
Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS Seattle shows why they are the early Super Bowl favorite.
Raiders +10 over COLTS Look for the Colts to have a down year.
49ERS -4.5 over Packers San Fran's defense will be the difference.
REDSKINS -4 over Eagles College coaches struggle in the NFL until proven otherwise.
Texans -5 over CHARGERS Chargers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Houston.
2013 NFL Season Totals
With the NFL season upon us I've decided to focus a lot of attention to sports betting. The NFL is the most bet on sport and is talked about quite often. In the first installment, I've gone through all 32 teams and gave you
my predictions for their total wins. The odds associated are straight off the
sheet from Caesars Palace. Some teams have a real good value (Browns under 6.5 +135) whereas others were jumped on early and the price was really affected (Chiefs over 7.5 -175). For those that don't know what I'm talking about, if you took the Chiefs to win more than 7.5 games, you would have to bet $175 to win $100. Whereas if you took the Browns to win less than 6.5 games, you would win $1.35 for every $1 you bet, which means if you bet $100 you would win $135. Here's what I came up with.
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | ||
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | ||
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | ||
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | ||
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | ||
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | ||
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | ||
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | ||
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | ||
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | ||
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 |
As you can see, most have fallen either above or below the number listed, except the Broncos and 49ers. We will revisit this throughout the year and especially after the season to see how things go. I'd be happy with a 50/50 split.
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