Player To Watch - Vander Blue has done whatever this team has needed during their run in the tournament and he will have to continue that against Syracuse. Marquette is not a good 3-point shooting team (30%) but Blue has gone 5-10 in his first three games. That coupled with his penetration ability is what the Golden Eagles are going to need to breakdown the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which caused Indiana fits.
Key Matchup - These two Big East teams only played once in the regular season, a game Marquette won 74-71. This is more of a team thing than individual as it's Marquette's offense against the Syracuse 2-3 zone. In their game against Indiana, the Orange befuddled the Hoosiers because they rarely had to play against a 2-3 but Marquette sees it every year. In their first game Davante Gardner had 26 points and eight boards but everybody else struggled, especially from the 3-point line. There are multiple ways to beat the zone but hitting outside shots helps a lot and if Marquette is cold again from beyond the arc they might not be as fortunate to escape with a win.
Deciding Factor - Rebounding. Can Syracuse rebound out of their zone and can Marquette keep the bigger Orange off the offensive glass. Playing a zone makes it difficult to find a man and box out especially against hustle guys like Gardner and Jamil Wilson. But the Orange have the size to attack the offensive boards as well with Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, James Southerland and C.J. Fair. Marquette and Syracuse had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively in their first game and the team that can limit the other has a great chance of winning.
Ohio State vs Wichita State
Player To Watch - Aaron Craft has been playing great offensively and defensively in Ohio State's first three games, including hitting a game winner against Iowa State. All year he's been the x-factor for this team. We know what to expect out of Deshaun Thomas but when Craft plays like he has been this team can beat anybody in the country. He's averaging six assists and just over 11 points in the tournament. He's going up against a senior in Malcolm Armstead that's been playing well himself so it will be interesting to see if Craft's pressure will get to him.
Key Matchup - Deshaun Thomas vs Carl Hall. Thomas led the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and hasn't slowed down in the tournament. Hall played great against LaSalle, 16 and 8, but containing Thomas is a difficult task. It's tough to say that Hall can neutralize Thomas but if he keeps their matchup somewhat close Wichita State has a better chance of pulling the upset.
Deciding Factor - These teams are basically mirror images of each other if you look at stats across the board. Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and turnovers are all pretty even. To me it's going to come down to if Deshaun Thomas continues to get help on the offensive end. Whether is Craft, LaQuinton Ross, or Lezelle Smith Jr, somebody else has to score. Ross has put up 17 in the each of the last two games but if that stops OSU will struggle. Wichita State is a deeper team so if they have multiple guys contributing, as they have so far, look for them to stay with the Buckeyes until the end.
Michigan vs Florida
Player To Watch - Obviously Trey Burke. But I'm going with Mitch McGary. John Beilein finally decided to start the big freshman and it's paying off. McGary is averaging just under 20 points and a little over 12 rebounds in the tournament. All of a sudden this guy is playing like one of the best big men in the country.
Key Matchup - Trey Burke against the Gators pressure. Burke had 23 points and a huge game-tying 3-pointer from super long range against Kansas but has turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the tournament. During the regular season Burke had the best assist to turnover ratio in the country but has 13 in three games in the tournament, including seven against VCU. The Gators forced 20 turnovers against Florida Gulf Coast and have three guards that bring pressure. Burke will be the likely Player of the Year but if he continues to struggle with turnovers it can put Michigan in a bad spot.
Deciding Factor - Offense vs Defense. The Gators have won by double digits in every victory this year but when they've lost they've had a hard time scoring. Even in their win against FGCU they only shot 38%. Michigan on the other hand has hovered around 50% all tournament but their defense has been shaky all year. If Michigan can limit Florida on offense they will likely win. But Florida is ranked in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy's offense and defense and has the ability to run with the Wolverines. If it's a shooting match, the Gators defense is better and will help them prevail.
Louisville vs Duke
Player To Watch - Gorgui Dieng. In their first matchup he didn't play and Mason Plumlee had 16 and seven rebounds to help Duke get a 76-71 win. With Dieng back in the lineup he's one player that can stop Plumlee on offense and the glass. Dieng is averaging a double-double on the year with 2.5 blocks and is the inside presence Louisville needs to make a title run.
Key Matchup - Russ Smith vs Seth Curry. These are the two hottest shooters in the country as Smith is averaging 27 and Curry with 24. Both of these guys have the ability to go for 30 and very well might. If you like scoring then this is the best matchup for it from here on out.
Deciding Factor - Can Duke stop Louisville? The Cardinals entire offense has been on point as they've shot at least 54% in every game in the tourney so far. If Duke wants to win this game they have to figure out a way to slow them down because so far nobody has been able to. I expect this to be a classic game between these two teams and coaches, Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski.
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