It wasn't too long ago that I had a conversation with a friend about how this years Michigan team has a legit shot at winning a national title. That was when they started the season 16-0 then moved their record to 20-1 during conference play. Since then they are 3-4 and looking like the Final Four hopes were a mirage
Wednesday's loss at Penn State is in the running for upset of the season in college basketball along with TCU over Kansas. Until then they didn't have a loss to a team outside of the top 25 in RPI ranking and all of them were on the road at Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. It's tough to call the Wisconsin game a loss because the Badgers needed a half court shot by Ben Brust to send it to overtime. But the loss at Michigan State was so bad that it counts for one and a half so it all evens out. Every team is going to lose throughout the year and those were all acceptable, but the loss at Penn State is inexcusable.
The fact that they had a 15 point lead with a little over 10 minutes left in the game then proceeded to be outscored 33-12 by a team that was winless in the Big Ten is a cause for concern. Usually when major upsets like this happen it's because the better team just has an off night like in the case of Kansas who shot 29% from the field. Michigan doesn't have that excuse because they shot 52% and hit their scoring average. What they didn't do is play defense and that's beginning to be a problem. Penn State averages 62 ppg and shoots 39% ranking 292nd and 329th respectively but managed to score 84 points on 49% shooting against the Wolverines. It's games like this you don't see the top teams losing. They will have tough road games against lesser opponents that are close but will never lose the game. If they want to get into the same class as consistently good teams like Duke and Michigan State this can't happen
We all know Michigan can score with anybody, averaging 76 ppg and shooting 49.5% from the floor, good for 6th in the country. But defensively they rank 262nd nationally in both steals (5.8) and blocks (2.6) per game. According Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense, Michigan is the only top ten team ranked outside of the top 24. In the last 10 years no National champion has been ranked lower than 19 according to Ken Pom's defensive rankings and Michigan currently sits at 57.
Trey Burke is the best point guard in the country and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a great compliment but the lack of an inside presence on both sides of the ball is a glaring weakness. Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford are serviceable at best. This is Morgan's third year and his numbers have gone down in each one. He shows flashes every now and then as he's posted three double-doubles this year but he's too inconsistent and missing time due to injury has helped his cause. I think McGary is the best out of the bunch and reminds me of a bigger Zack Novak as far as determination. Coming in I wasn't sure about him as I saw him get torn up by Nerlens Noel in high school and watched his recruiting rank plummet. He has grown on me though, I love his hustle and passion for the game but his athleticism kills me. There's been too many times I've seen him not be able to finish around the rim with a dunk or get out rebounded by a smaller more athletic player. Horford is decent, he gets the occasional block but often looks lost on the court. Teams with good post players will always give them trouble and are hard to beat unless Michigan's guards are hitting their shots.
The starting freshmen, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III, are key to the success of this team in the tournament. Like I said, we know what to expect out of Burke and Hardaway, but they can't win big games by themselves and will need the scoring of the two young bucks. Both average 11 points but seemed to have hit a wall of late, Robinson more-so than Stauskas. In the murderers row of their schedule (at Indiana, vs Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State) Robinson scored only 18 points on 7-24 shooting. Stauskas started the year red hot from three point range ranking among the top five and hovering around 50%. Since conference play started his numbers have dropped and he's had more than two 3's in a game only three times, whereas he had eight games out of conference. It was a difficult pace to keep and defenses are tough in the Big Ten but his jumper doesn't seem as consistent as it once was. Maybe it's because they are playing more games in college than a year ago in high school. Either way UM needs to get these two back on track if they want to make a run in the tournament.
Their game against Michigan State is the biggest one so far and will tell us if they are ready to take down top notch opponents. Not only is this a rivalry game but they were utterly embarrassed in East Lansing losing by 23 and trailing by as many as 31. Every loss has came on the road and with this game being played at Crisler it's a must win for this team and needs to do it convincingly without the threat of losing it at the end. I don't want to sound like I'm calling this team overrated or I've lost faith in my team because they are very solid and better than most in the country. But if they want to be considered a serious contender for a National Championship they need to beat MSU and if not get a win against Indiana at least a game down to the last possession. The good thing for Big Blue is that there are no road games in the NCAA tournament. The bad thing is they are susceptible to an early upset.
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