Midwest Region Breakdown

The Midwest region of the NCAA tournament is recognized as the toughest in the bracket and for good reason.  Despite being the #1 overall seed, Louisville has to contend with Duke, Michigan State, and a sneaky good Saint Louis team.  Not only does this region have good teams but great players as well.  Creighton's Doug McDermott is second in the nation in scoring with 23 points per game and is up for player of the year.  While Oklahoma State has a freshman of the year candidate in Marcus Smart.  This side of the bracket will have a lot to watch for.

Top Seeds
1. Louisville
2. Duke
3. Michigan State
4. Saint Louis

Sleepers
I really like Saint Louis.  This team plays great defense and Dwayne Evans is a physical presence inside.  But they are a 4-seed so a sleeper to watch for has to be the Oregon Ducks.  This team was sitting atop the Pac-12 before their point guard Dominic Artis went down in late January and the Ducks lost three of their next four games.  Artis is healthy again and Oregon is back in a groove after winning the Pac-12 tournament.

First Round Upset Alerts
5 Oklahoma State vs 12 Oregon - The 12-5 upset that we see every year.  Obviously, I like Oregon for reasons I stated above but also I'm not sure how they are ranked this low.  With all its players healthy the Ducks have six players that average at least 8.5 points and Arsalan Kazemi cleans up the boards with 9.5 per game.  Oklahoma State likes to play uptempo but if the Ducks control the pace they have a good shot at winning multiple games.

7 Creighton vs 10 Cincinnati - Offense vs Defense.  I mentioned McDermott being a POY candidate and the Bluejays lead the nation in field goal percentage.  As for the Bearcats, they pride themselves on defense.  Cincy ranks 8th in country in rebounding and if they can keep the game in the 60's instead of the 70's they have a great chance of advancing.

Possible Match Ups
Louisville vs Saint Louis - If you like good defense this is the game for you as both teams only give up around 58 points per game.  Louisville ranks #1 in adjusted defense in Ken Pomeroy's rankings while Saint Louis might be the most physical team in the country.  The Billikens were 5-1 against ranked teams and won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament championships, a conference that sent five teams to the NCAA tournament.

Louisville vs Duke - A rematch of a game earlier this season that Duke won 76-71.  However, this time the Cardinals have Gorgui Dieng who will look to neutralize Mason Plumlee down low.  Duke received a boost when they got Ryan Kelly back from a foot injury and he poses match-up problems for other teams bigs.

My Pick
This is a tough bracket to pick because of the threat from so many teams but I'm going with Louisville.  The best defense and the hottest team in the nation after plowing through the Big East tournament.  I turned their championship game against Syracuse on with just under 16 minutes in the second half with the Orange up 16.  Louisville proceeded to close the game on a 49-16, enough said.  Coach Rick Pitino better bust out his white suit when the reach the Final Four.



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