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Saturday, March 30, 2013

What To Watch For In The Elite 8

Marquette vs Syracuse

Player To Watch - Vander Blue has done whatever this team has needed during their run in the tournament and he will have to continue that against Syracuse.  Marquette is not a good 3-point shooting team (30%) but Blue has gone 5-10 in his first three games.  That coupled with his penetration ability is what the Golden Eagles are going to need to breakdown the Syracuse 2-3 zone, which caused Indiana fits.

Key Matchup - These two Big East teams only played once in the regular season, a game Marquette won 74-71.  This is more of a team thing than individual as it's Marquette's offense against the Syracuse 2-3 zone.  In their game against Indiana, the Orange befuddled the Hoosiers because they rarely had to play against a 2-3 but Marquette sees it every year.  In their first game Davante Gardner had 26 points and eight boards but everybody else struggled, especially from the 3-point line.  There are multiple ways to beat the zone but hitting outside shots helps a lot and if Marquette is cold again from beyond the arc they might not be as fortunate to escape with a win.

Deciding Factor - Rebounding.  Can Syracuse rebound out of their zone and can Marquette keep the bigger Orange off the offensive glass.  Playing a zone makes it difficult to find a man and box out especially against hustle guys like Gardner and Jamil Wilson.  But the Orange have the size to attack the offensive boards as well with Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, James Southerland and C.J. Fair.  Marquette and Syracuse had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds respectively in their first game and the team that can limit the other has a great chance of winning.


Ohio State vs Wichita State

Player To Watch - Aaron Craft has been playing great offensively and defensively in Ohio State's first three games, including hitting a game winner against Iowa State.  All year he's been the x-factor for this team.  We know what to expect out of Deshaun Thomas but when Craft plays like he has been this team can beat anybody in the country.  He's averaging six assists and just over 11 points in the tournament.  He's going up against a senior in Malcolm Armstead that's been playing well himself so it will be interesting to see if Craft's pressure will get to him.

Key Matchup - Deshaun Thomas vs Carl Hall.  Thomas led the Big Ten in scoring at almost 20 a game and hasn't slowed down in the tournament.  Hall played great against LaSalle, 16 and 8, but containing Thomas is a difficult task.  It's tough to say that Hall can neutralize Thomas but if he keeps their matchup somewhat close Wichita State has a better chance of pulling the upset.

Deciding Factor - These teams are basically mirror images of each other if you look at stats across the board.  Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and turnovers are all pretty even.  To me it's going to come down to if Deshaun Thomas continues to get help on the offensive end.  Whether is Craft, LaQuinton Ross, or Lezelle Smith Jr, somebody else has to score.  Ross has put up 17 in the each of the last two games but if that stops OSU will struggle.  Wichita State is a deeper team so if they have multiple guys contributing, as they have so far, look for them to stay with the Buckeyes until the end.


Michigan vs Florida

Player To Watch - Obviously Trey Burke.  But I'm going with Mitch McGary.  John Beilein finally decided to start the big freshman and it's paying off.  McGary is averaging just under 20 points and a little over 12 rebounds in the tournament.  All of a sudden this guy is playing like one of the best big men in the country.

Key Matchup - Trey Burke against the Gators pressure.  Burke had 23 points and a huge game-tying 3-pointer from super long range against Kansas but has turned the ball over uncharacteristically in the tournament.  During the regular season Burke had the best assist to turnover ratio in the country but has 13 in three games in the tournament, including seven against VCU.  The Gators forced 20 turnovers against Florida Gulf Coast and have three guards that bring pressure.  Burke will be the likely Player of the Year but if he continues to struggle with turnovers it can put Michigan in a bad spot.

Deciding Factor - Offense vs Defense.  The Gators have won by double digits in every victory this year but when they've lost they've had a hard time scoring.  Even in their win against FGCU they only shot 38%.  Michigan on the other hand has hovered around 50% all tournament but their defense has been shaky all year.  If Michigan can limit Florida on offense they will likely win.  But Florida is ranked in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy's offense and defense and has the ability to run with the Wolverines.  If it's a shooting match, the Gators defense is better and will help them prevail.


Louisville vs Duke 

Player To Watch - Gorgui Dieng.  In their first matchup he didn't play and Mason Plumlee had 16 and seven rebounds to help Duke get a 76-71 win.  With Dieng back in the lineup he's one player that can stop Plumlee on offense and the glass.  Dieng is averaging a double-double on the year with 2.5 blocks and is the inside presence Louisville needs to make a title run.

Key Matchup - Russ Smith vs Seth Curry.  These are the two hottest shooters in the country as Smith is averaging 27 and Curry with 24.  Both of these guys have the ability to go for 30 and very well might.  If you like scoring then this is the best matchup for it from here on out.

Deciding Factor -  Can Duke stop Louisville?  The Cardinals entire offense has been on point as they've shot at least 54% in every game in the tourney so far.  If Duke wants to win this game they have to figure out a way to slow them down because so far nobody has been able to.  I expect this to be a classic game between these two teams and coaches, Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski.



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Sweet 16 Day 2 Recap

Michigan rallies late to force OT and advance to Elite 8

It looked all but over when Kansas led 68-54 with less than seven minutes left in the game but that's when Michigan turned up its defense and Trey Burke played like the POY he is.  In the first half Kansas couldn't miss as they shot 68% but only had a six point lead, 40-34, despite Burke going scoreless.  The Jayhawks were scoring at will inside as Jeff Withey, Kevin Young and Perry Ellis appeared to be unstoppable in the paint.  In the second half it was more of the same for KU for the first 12 minutes but Burke was finally starting to make a scoring impact.  With Kansas up 14 late, Michigan ramped up their defense exposing the lack of point guard for KU forcing bad passes and a crucial 10-second call.  The Wolverines kept fighting back but still found themselves down ten with 2:22 and then five with 21 seconds left.   After Burke hit a layup, Elijah Johnson was at the free throw line shooting one-and-one.  He missed, which left the door open for Burke to solidify his Player of the Year status as he hit a 30-footer to send the game to overtime.  Riding that momentum, Michigan came out strong in OT creating an 87-82 lead.  Kansas still had a chance to tie only down two with nine seconds left when Johnson looked to have an open lane, but he kicked it out to Naadir Tharpe who missed the game-winning 3-pointer.  Somehow Michigan pulled out the win in this game.  Burke scored all 23 of his points in the second half and OT but it was Mitch McGary who kept this team in it the entire game.  McGary finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds as he and Burke (also 10 assists) became the fourth pair of teammates to have 20 points, 10 assists and 25 points, 10 rebounds in a NCAA tournament game.  Another pair was Glen Rice and Rumeal Robinson when Michigan won the title in '89.  For Kansas, their best player Ben McLemore finally showed up in the tournament putting in 20 points on 4-8 beyond the arc.  Also, Withey was dominate inside with 12 points, eight boards, and five blocks.  As for Johnson, he day started and ended badly.  Not even two minutes into the game he was called for a flagrant foul after hitting McGary below the belt, then to end regulation he missed a free throw to ice the game, and at the end of OT he passed on what looked like to be an open game-tying layup.  Throughout the year Michigan was on the wrong side of games like this (see Wisconsin and Indiana) but last night they showed their resiliency and pulled off the improbable comeback.  It doesn't get any easier from here on out either, but Michigan reaches the Elite 8 for the first time since 1994.

Florida ends Florida Gulf Coast Cinderella run

For the first 15 minutes Florida Gulf Coast seemed to be on their way to another upset and continuing their Cinderella run.  The Eagles were up 24-14 before the Gators ended the first half on a 16-2 run to take a 30-26 lead at the break.  After that Florida never looked back.  "Dunk City" was a great story while it lasted but they were severely over matched by the bigger and stronger Gators.  The story was offensive rebounding for Florida and turnovers for FGCU.  Florida shot only 38% but collected 13 offensive rebounds and forced 20 turnovers which led to 16 points.  In the first two games Eagles PG Brett Comer averaged 12 assists and only 2.5 TOs but the Gators guards applied the pressure throughout the game making Comer turn the ball over nine times.  Mike Rosario scored 15 for Florida and Casey Prather chipped in 11 off the bench.  FGCU's standout guard Sherwood Brown led them with 14 and 6 rebounds.  The entire country backed the small Florida school against its big brother but the talent disparity finally reared its ugly head as the Eagles tied a season low 50 points.  With the 62-50 win the Gators have still claimed every victory by double-digits.  A date with Michigan is scheduled for a trip to the Final Four.

Duke, Coach K outlasts Michigan State, Izzo

The battle between two of the best coaches in college basketball went the way we expected in the first half, a strategic back and forth game.  Duke took an eight point lead but MSU quickly cut the deficit to one before the half 32-31.  However, early in the second the Blue Devils went on a 9-0 run which Michigan State was never able to overcome as they fell to Duke 71-61.  The problem for Sparty was that Seth curry was on fire.  He came out in the second connecting on his first three attempts from long range and finished with 29 points on 6-9 from distance.  His performance was very reminiscent of his brother Stephen for Davidson in his run to the Elite 8 in 2008.  These teams matched up pretty well across the board especially with each team having two bigs, one that likes to bang (Mason Plumlee and Derrick Nix) and one that plays outside (Ryan Kelly and Adreian Payne).  They pretty much cancelled each other out (Plumlee and Kelly 23 pts 14 rebs, Nix and Payne 23 pts 19 rebs), but Michigan State had nobody to help Keith Appling on the outside.  The Spartans were only 3-12 from deep and their freshman stud Gary Harris missed both his 3-point attempts and was 2-11 from the field.  Coach K now owns a 7-1 advantage against Tom Izzo.

Louisville, Russ Smith, easily takes care of Oregon

Louisville jumped out to a 24-8 lead in the first 10 minutes and that's all the Cardinals needed as they cruised to a 77-69 win.  Russ Smith continued to be "Russdiculous" as he tied a career high 31 points on 9-16 from the field and 12-14 from the line.  He's now averaging 27 in the tourney and I don't think there's another player that has looked better.  Gorgui Dieng contributed 10 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks.  Louisville has been pressuring teams like crazy in the tournament, taking a NCAA record 20 steals in their first game, but only forced 12 Oregon turnovers.  Give a lot of credit to the Ducks as well because they were able to fight back in the second half and cut the deficit to six with 5:13 left but wouldn't get any closer.  Arsalan Kazemi posted another double-double with 11 and 12, and E.J. Single had 15 points.  Louisville is definitely the team to beat right now and are the only #1 seed to make it to the Elite 8.  Their rewarded with facing Duke for a Final Four bid.  The last time Rick Pitino and Mike Krzyzewski met in a regional final was in 1992 and Christian Laettner hit his game-winning shot.   These two teams met in November with Duke taking it 76-71, but that was without Dieng so Louisville is looking for revenge.



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Friday, March 29, 2013

Sweet 16 Day 1 Recap

Ohio State does it again, downing Arizona in the final seconds

For the second straight game Ohio State was tied with its opponent and had the ball for the last shot.  Against Iowa State it was Aaron Craft who hit the dagger 3-pointer, tonight against Arizona it was LaQuinton Ross.  This game was back and forth all night, with each team controlling a half.  In the first it was all Arizona who held an 11 point lead before the Buckeyes cut it to four, 38-34, at the break.  OSU opened the second stanza with a 10-0 run to take a six point lead, which later grew to ten.  But the Wildcats weren't done as Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons kept them in it during OSU's run.  At one point Hill scored nine straight and finished with 16 on 7-11 shooting.  In the last 1:20 Arizona was down 69-63 when Lyons scored the last nine for the Cats and he tied the game at 70 with 21 seconds left.  So again OSU can take the last shot and the ball is in Craft's hands.  This time he gives it up to Ross who nails the triple with only two seconds remaining and Ohio State finishes off Arizona 73-70.  Ross was on fire in the second half as he scored 14 of his 17 after the intermission.  For Arizona, Lyons had a great tournament scoring no less than 23 in each of his three games.  In the 2012 NCAA tournament, players were 0-12 in the last ten seconds on potential game-tying or go-ahead field goal attempts.  This year we've already had four made field goals by Vander Blue, Tyrone Garland, Aaron Craft, and now LaQuinton Ross.

Syracuse and the 2-3 zone slows down Indiana

That sound you hear are thousands of people ripping up their brackets.  If Gonzaga and Miami going down wasn't enough, we lost a very popular pick to win it all when Indiana fell to Syracuse 61-50.  The Orange controlled the pace of the game and slowed down Indiana with their 2-3 zone.  The Hoosiers scored a season low 50 points while shooting 33% from the field (3-15 on 3's) and committed 18 turnovers.  Syracuse was disruptive all night with their length blocking ten shots and creating 12 steals as Michael Carter-Williams led the way.  MCW had 24 points and 4 steals because nobody on Indiana could contain him, not even Victor Oladipo.  But, Oladipo was the lone bright spot for IU scoring 16 on 5-6 from the field.  Cody Zeller posted 10 and 10 but was 3-11, and Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls combined for 4-17 (Hulls 0-6).  Syracuse is a tough team to prepare for if you don't play against a lot of zone during the regular season and they are a very dangerous team that seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball.

Marquette breezes past Miami FL to get to Elite 8

The Marquette Golden Eagles were a bad in-bounds pass away from being bounced early by Davidson and are now heading to the Elite 8 after routing Miami.  Marquette won its first two games of the tournament by a total of three points but against the Hurricanes their largest lead was 22 before the game finished at 71-61.  It was definitely a total team effort as the six players that scored all had at least eight points and Jamil Wilson led with 16.  Marquette shot 54% from the field and held Miami to only 35% and 8-26 on 3-pointers.  The Hurricanes had a terrible start to the game, only scoring 16 in the first half and were never able to recover.  The Golden Eagles reach the Elite 8 for the first time since 2003 when Dwyane Wade was running the show.  This year it's been Vander Blue leading this team hitting the game-winner against Davidson, putting in 29 in a 74-72 win over Butler and last night scoring 14 on 7-12 shooting.  Marquette had an early exit in the Big East tournament but are now showing signs of the surprise team that shared a regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown.  They epitomize the word "team" and now have to face a familiar foe in Syracuse for a chance to go to Atlanta for the Final Four.

The Shockers continue their post season run

For the first time in this tournament Wichita State was the favorite in their matchup with LaSalle and they played like it.  The Shockers started the game on a 17-3 run and the game was basically over from then on as they cruised to a 72-58 win.  Carl Hall scored ten of his 16 points during that run and also added eight boards.  In the second half it was Malcolm Armstead that paced the Shockers scoring nine straight at one point en route to leading the team with 18.  Wichita State also played great defensively holding LaSalle to only 35% shooting and continued their trend of keeping their first three opponents to that same percentage.  For the Explorers, Ramon Galloway and Tyrone Garland were a combined 9-30 from the field.  Wichita State has a date with Ohio State on Sunday and earlier in the tournament Thad Matta told reporters teams that a good at rebounding scare him.  Well, the Shockers outrebounded LaSalle 44-23.



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Thursday, March 28, 2013

NCAA Tournament Day 4 Recap

Florida Gulf Coast continues its Cinderella run

After disposing of the 2-seed Georgetown, Florida Gulf Coast sent San Diego State packing as well 81-71 and became the first ever 15-seed to reach the Sweet 16.  Not only has this team pulled off two huge upsets, they've done it rather easily.  Despite trailing by one at the half, 35-34, FGCU came out strong again in the second and they are averaging 50.5 points per game in the latter half of games.  Jamaal Franklin did everything he could for SDSU, 20 points and 11 rebounds, but it wasn't enough for the Aztecs.  The Eagles were lighting it up all game hitting 56% of their shots, led by Bernard Thompson and Sherwood Brown who scored 23 and 17 respectively.  Brett Comer also had a great game as a facilitator dishing out 14 assists and plenty of alley-oops for "Dunk City".  FGCU is having more fun than any other team and it shows on the court, which definitely helps their play.  They are loose and free but might tighten up as they go deeper into the tournament and the pressure mounts.  Next they face the University of Florida and who would have thought the first matchup between sunshine state foes would be against Florida Gulf Coast in the Sweet 16, not Miami in the Final Four.

Aaron Craft lifts Ohio State over Iowa State

The South Region was busted wide open before Ohio State took the court Sunday with the number 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 seeds all being knocked out.  The Buckeyes almost joined that list but Aaron Craft made the last seven points for OSU including the game-winning 3-pointer with one second remaining to advance 78-75.  The game was tight the entire first half but with 6:07 to go in the game Ohio State took its biggest lead of the game 69-56.  Immediately, Iowa State went on a 13-0 run to tie the game.  Later, with the game tied at 75, Craft missed the potential go ahead jumper with 30 seconds left but the Cyclones couldn't come up with the rebound (the ball looked like it might have been knocked out by Deshaun Thomas but there is no review in college, we will revisit this in a moment).  So Ohio State, and Craft, were given another chance and he delivered.  Craft finished with 18 points and 6 assists while Thomas added 22 as the Buckeyes shot better than 50% from the field and beyond the arc.  ISU was led by Korie Lucious (19) and Will Clyburn (17) but lost their best defender and solid outside shooter, Chris Babb, late in the first half.  OSU will now play the only other team in their region to not be upset in the rounds of 64 or 32, 6-seed Arizona.

Miami FL escapes against Illnois

Possibly the most controversial game so far, Miami FL looked to be in control of this game early but needed Shane Larkin and a little help from the refs to comeback late to beat Illinois 63-59.  Let's just fast-forward to the end, with less than two minutes left Illinois held a 55-54 lead.  Shane Larkin hit a big 3-pointer for Miami to give them the 57-55 edge with 1:00 left.  On the ensuing possession, D.J. Richardson missed a 3 of his own and with both teams going for the rebound the ball gets knocked out of bounds.  The officials give it to the Hurricanes but the replay clearly shows Kenny Kadji being the last to touch it which would give Illinois another chance to tie or take the lead.  Instead they are forced to foul and the U hit their free throws.  This was the second game of the day where there was a questionable call with a ball going out of bounds late in a close game.  The Ohio State call would have been tough to overturn but was definitely worth a look, however there was no question Kadji touched it last.  Look for college to adapt the NBA rule of being to look at possession in the last two minutes of games on replay.  Now I'm not saying Illinois would have won if they got the ball but you never know what can happen, especially with a shooter like Brandon Paul.  Their chances would have been better if Paul (18 points) could have received a little help from their second leading scorer, Richardson, could have hit a few shots as he went 1-11 from the field.  Larkin had 17 for the Hurricanes but reserve Rion Brown came up big with 21 points on 5-10 from deep.

Indiana rallies late past Temple

The Indiana Hoosiers were less than two minutes away from being eliminated early as Temple's Khalif Wyatt almost single-handily made IU the second #1 seed to fall.  But Victor Oladipo wouldn't let that happen.  Wyatt was hot from the tip as the Owls held the halftime lead 29-26 and maintained that lead for most of the second half.  Indiana crawled back to take a 53-52 edge and with 15 seconds left Oladipo all but ended the game with a dagger 3-pointer.  The Hoosiers ended the game on a 10-0 run to earn a 58-52 victory.  Oladipo finished with 16 points and eight rebounds, while Cody Zeller added 15 and six.  For the Owls, Wyatt dropped 31on 12-24 from the field but was only 3-12 from distance.  His teammate and second leading scorer, Scootie Randall, went 0-12 as Temple shot only 34% as a team.  Randall's performance tied UConn's Khalid El-Amin for the worst shooting performance in the tournament since the field expanded in 1985.  Every year the team that wins it all needs to squeak by at least one opponent, Indiana is hoping this will be the only one.

LaSalle beats the clock to reach Sweet 16

The only game that featured two teams that pulled off upsets in the second round came down to the last possession as LaSalle's Tyrone Garland hit a running layup with three seconds left to send Ole Miss home, 76-74.  The was tight throughout and the lead switched hands multiple times down the stretch, luckily for the Explorers they held the ball last and were able to finish it off.  Garland scored 17 but it was Ramon Galloway that led the way with 24 on 6-10 on 3-pointers.  For the Rebels, Marshall Henderson put in 21 and Murphy Holloway added 14 and 13 boards.  The craziest stat from this game I saw was that in two tournament games, Henderson had 64 touches and only passed the ball 18 times.  I know he can score but that's ridiculous.  Especially when you have solid post players like Holloway and Reginald Buckner.  This team could be so much better if Henderson deferred more often.  Now, LaSalle moves on to the Sweet 16 to play Wichita State.  This is the first time ever two teams ranked 13 or lower reached the Sweet 16 as LaSalle and Florida Gulf Coast made it to the second weekend.



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NCAA Tournament Day 3 Recap

Wichita State shocks the Zags

Gonzaga was pushed by Southern in their first game and they were thought of by many to be the first 1-seed to out of the tournament.  Tonight they proved those people right as 9-seed Wichita State took out the top team, 76-70, in the crazy West Region.  The Shockers jumped out early going up 26-13 and leading 36-31 at the half.  Gonzaga came out in the second half blazing on an 18-5 run to take an eight point lead 49-41.  At this point you figured the Bulldogs have found their groove and will continue their run to closeout the Shockers.  But it was Rob Baker who scored eight points in 1:38 to give Wichita State the lead back at 67-63 with just under three minutes to play.  Baker finished with 16 points on 4-6 from deep and Cleanthony Early also chipped in 16 with seven boards.  The Shockers went 50% from the field including 14-28 on 3-pointers.  On the other hand the Zags couldn't find their offense down the stretch going only 4-12 in the last 6:05.  Kelly Olynyk finished with 26 points and nine rebounds.

Marquette seeks revenge on Butler

This was a rematch of a game from November in Maui that Butler won on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Rotnei Clarke for the 72-71 win.  Marquette wanted to come out and get revenge for that heartbreaking loss but it was the Bulldogs that had the 35-27 lead at the break.  Marquette managed to fight back in the second half and tie the game late with 1:29 left after Vander Blue hit a 3 to make it 69-69.  After three free throws by the Golden Eagles, Butler's Roosevelt Jones found himself on the line with 15 seconds left.  Jones made the first and The Bulldogs were down two.  He missed the second and these two teams found themselves in the same position they were in at Maui.  Butler got the rebound off the miss and Rotnei Clarke hoisted the potential game-winning 3 but he was off.  Marquette finished off the late rally to win 74-72 behind Blue's 29 points.  Clarke added 24 for Butler.  The closest margin of the day before this game was Oregon over Saint Louis by 17, so this was the type of nail-biter we all expect to see in the tournament.

Michigan and Michigan State cruise to the Sweet 16

The state of Michigan sent the first two teams in the Sweet 16.  Michigan led the way as the Wolverines reached the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since 1994.  Coming into their game against the VCU Rams, Michigan was said to be on upset alert for the second straight game.  The biggest reason is VCU's "havoc" defense and the fact that they just beat a short-handed Akron team 88-42, but Michigan had a few surprises for the Rams.  The first was that to handle their press the Wolverines decided to have Tim Hardaway Jr. bring the ball up to help Trey Burke.  VCU leads the nation in steals, led by Darius Theus (2.4 spg, who was on Burke), but the Wolverines took care of the ball well in the first half as Burke and Hardaway only had three turnovers combined and led 38-23 at the break.  The other surprise was the play of Mitch McGary who played his most minutes of the season and rewarded John Beilein with 21 points on 10-11 shooting and 14 rebounds, both career highs.  An inside presence has been UM's most glaring weakness all year, if McGary can keep this up it makes the Wolverines an even tougher out.  Michigan's largest lead was 31 and the highlight of the night went to Spike Albrecht's left handed bounce pass between defenders to Glenn Robinson III for the dunk.  Michigan held VCU to only 3-16 on 3-pointers and the Wolverines now gear up for Kansas.

March is the month of Tom Izzo and Michigan State.  Memphis was able to keep it close in the first half (32-29) but the Spartans pulled away in the second to earn the 70-48 victory and move on to the sweet 16.  Gary Harris was hitting early and often as he poured in 23 points on 4-7 from beyond the arc and Adreian Payne controlled the paint with 14 points, ten boards and a career high five blocks.  MSU turned the ball over 18 times but a stifling defense held Memphis to only 29.7% from the floor.  The Spartans also are going to have to check the status of Keith Appling as he left the game with a right shoulder injury.  The starting point guard said he could have gone back in if needed but it will be interesting to see how it will affect him next weekend.  MSU now awaits the winner of Creighton and Duke, if the Blue Devils prevail it will be a matchup between two of the best coaches in the country.

Oregon shows they are for real

Oregon felt disrespected by receiving a 12-seed and they are taking it out on their opponents.  After dismantling Oklahoma State 68-55 in their first game, Saint Louis was the next victim 74-57.  The Billikens were a sexy pick by a few analysts to possibly upset #1 Louisville but they never reached that matchup because the Ducks weren't having it.  The game was tight for the first seven minutes when Saint Louis held an 11-10 lead.  After that, Oregon finished the half on a 25-8 run and never looked back.  Saint Louis had one of the best defenses in the country but the Ducks ran their offense with great efficiency as they shot 53% from the field and were 8-11 from distance.  Freshman Damyean Dotson led the way for Oregon with 23 points and 5-6 on 3-pointers.  Also, Arsalan Kazemi controlled the paint with eight points and 16 rebounds, including seven offense.  Oregon faces Louisville next weekend and shouldn't be taken lightly by the top seed in the Midwest.

Arizona is looking like the team that started the season 14-0

Another Pac-12 team that didn't get much respect when the tournament began was Arizona.  The Wildcats were once ranked as high as #4 in the country after starting 14-0 with wins over Florida, Miami FL, and San Diego State.  In conference play (Oregon gave them their first loss) Arizona struggled against the top teams in the Pac-12 and ended up a 4-seed in the conference tournament, then ousted by UCLA.  However, they seem to be rejuvenated in the big dance as they've won their first two games by an average of 20 points.  Belmont was a popular upset pick by many but they were no match for Arizona and neither was Harvard after pulling off its major upset over New Mexico.  In both games the Wildcats have been over 55% from the floor and their leading scorer Mark Lyons has been on fire.  In two games Lyons has 50 points on 20-32 shooting.  Arizona is back to being a team that has Final Four hopes as they seem to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time.



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Monday, March 25, 2013

NCAA Tournament Day 2 Recap

Florida Gulf Coast drops Georgetown

We almost had a 16 beat a 1 yesterday but today we had the pleasure of watching 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast take down 2-seed Georgetown.  This game was played in Philadelphia and the Eagles seemed to have a little Rocky Balboa in them.  The amazing thing about all these upsets is that the lower seeded teams are winning the games outright.  We aren't seeing any miracle Bryce Drew shots, except in the commercials.  The only buzzer-beater we've seen is from Marquette to prevent an upset.  FGCU closed the first half on a 13-2 run to take a 24-22 lead at the break.  Then with the game tied at 31, the Eagles went on a 19-2 run in a four minute span.  This is not something the 15-seed is supposed to be doing!  Nor do they usually make highlights like Chase Fieler did.  But when you control the pace of the game like FGCU did, you can do that.  They knew the Hoyas like to play at a slower pace so they sped the game up and it worked.  Georgetown tried to make a run at the end but it was way too late as they fell 78-68.  Sherwood Brown scored 24 while Brett Comer added 12 points, six rebounds, and 10 assists.  Florida Gulf Coast became the 7th 15-seed to beat a 2-seed and the 3rd in the last two years.  Let's not forget that they had a win over another 2-seed, Miami FL, earlier this year.  As for Georgetown they end their season on another disappointing loss.  This is the 4th straight year they have been ousted by a double-digit seed in the tournament.  Big East player of the year, Otto Porter Jr., had a rough night.  Although he had 13 points and 11 boards, he was only 5-17 from the field.

LaSalle holds on late against Kansas State

The First Four play-in has only been around three years, but each year we've seen one of those teams win multiple games.  In 2011 it was VCU, 2012 South Florida, and this year LaSalle.  This was definitely a tale of two halves for the Explorers.  In the first they jumped out to an 18 point lead at the half 44-26 hitting 18 of 31 shots.  Then in the second half Kansas State finally decided to show up.  The Wildcats steadily cut into the deficit and took their first lead of the game with 7:05 left, 57-56.  From that point on, LaSalle did not make a shot (3-18 in the 2nd half) and K-State made one layup.  However, Jerrell Wright made 7-8 free throws including two with 30 seconds left to give the Explorers the lead back as they closed it out 63-61.  Wright was the leading scorer with 21 as he went 6-6 from the floor and 9-10 from the line.  LaSalle is reminiscent of the 2011 VCU team that made the Final Four as they play a four guard lineup and like to get up and down the court.

Ole Miss continues the 12-seed special

When filling out your bracket everybody knows to pick at least one 12-seed to beat a 5-seed.  For the first time ever three 12-seeds were able to pull off the upset as Ole Miss knocked out Wisconsin 57-46.  All the talk before the game was if Wisconsin can stop Marshall Henderson, and his mouth.  They stopped him for the most of the game as he started 1-13, 0-6 from distance.  But once he hit his first 3-pointer, with just under 12 minutes to play, it brought the Rebels within three, 36-33, and started a 17-5 run for Ole Miss that gave them a 47-41 lead and ended up winning 57-46.  Henderson finished 6-21 from the field with 19 points, but it was the work of their big men, Murphy Holloway and Reginald Bucker, that kept the Rebels in the game early when Marshall was off.  They combined for 19 points, 21 rebounds and six blocks.  If you ask me, this team could be a lot better if Henderson would defer more to his rocks inside.  Coming into the tournament the Badgers weakness is going in scoring droughts and they were held to their worst shooting performance of the year going 15-59 (25.4%) from the floor and 7-30 (23.3%) from deep.  Up next for the Rebels are the previously mentioned LaSalle Explorers in a 12 vs 13 matchup.  Who had that one in their bracket?

Kansas has a bracket busting scare

The Kansas Jayhawks must not have paid much attention to Gonzaga's first game as they too took their 16-seed opponent lightly and it almost bit them.  The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, with one of the best mascots in college, actually held the lead at halftime 31-30.  They were able to limit turnovers (9 for the game) and slow the pace down, but had no answer for Kansas center Jeff Withey.  The Hilltoppers two most efficient players tonight, George Fant (10 points) and Aleksejs Rostov (11 points), couldn't stay on the court because Withey (17 point, 7 blocks) had them in foul trouble all game.  WKU struggled shooting the ball as well, 32% from the field and 3-20 from downtown, which is not what you need when trying to pull off a monumental upset.  Kansas needs to shake this off and get back on track because they play a rejuvenated North Carolina team next.  Roy Williams, meet Kansas.  Do you guys know each other?

Iowa State dismantles Notre Dame

Lower seeded teams that can do damage in the tournament are ones that take and can make a lot of 3's, and that's what Iowa State does.  The Cyclones took and made more 3-pointers than any other team in the country.  Tonight though it was their post players, Georges Niang and Melvin Ejim, who led the way with 19 and 17 points respectively.  ISU was able to score consistently inside as Notre Dame showed almost no resistance.  They were also able to neutralize one of the best rebounders in the country, Jack Cooley, as he could only grab five boards.  The fact that this Cyclone team was able to win going away playing a style of basketball they are not known for (they still hit nine 3's) shows that this team should not be overlooked by Ohio State.  Especially in the unpredictable West Region, where we've seen five upsets in the second round.



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Friday, March 22, 2013

NCAA Tournament Day 1 Recap

Harvard gets first tournament win in school history

For those of you who didn't stay up until midnight you might have awoken up to your bracket being busted.  Harvard, a 14-seed, picked up their first ever NCAA tournament victory over 3-seed New Mexico 68-62.  Apparently, they not only have brilliant minds attending their school but ball players as well.  The Crimson was able to slow down the pace of the game and hit key 3-pointers, led by Laurent Rivard who went 5-9 from deep with 17 points.  New Mexico is known for its offensive struggles and it showed as Mountain West player of the year Kendall Williams went 1-6 from the floor for eight points.  The Lobos were discussed as a possible Final Four candidate but that's out the window now that Harvard knocked them out.

Marquette storms back over Davidson

3-seed Marquette looked to be the first casualty in this years tournament at the hands of 14-seed Davidson.  The Wildcats were up pretty much the entire game and held a 54-48 lead with 1:10 to play.  The Golden Eagles proceeded to hit three 3s to pull within one, 58-57, with 10 seconds left.  After the inbound, Davidson tried to play keep away while running the clock and ended up turning the ball over.  Marquette's Vander Blue then hits a driving layup with 1 second to spare as the 3-seed is able to survive.  Davidson had this game wrapped up if they would have just held onto the ball and got fouled.  They are the best free throw shooting in the country at 79.5% but only managed 14-22 for the game including a crucial miss in the last minute.  Marquette came up big though making their last three 3s after starting 1-12.  And ask St. John's if Blue's shot looked familiar.  They now move on to play Butler.

Southern pushes Gonzaga to the brink

Sooner (hopefully) or later we will see a 16-seed pull off the ultimate upset over a 1-seed.  Southern University, the champions of the SWAC, was in it all the way down to the wire against top seeded Gonzaga.  The Jaguars were only down three at the half and even tied the game at 56 on a Derrick Beltran jumper with 3:47 left.  The very next play, the Bulldogs Gary Bell Jr. hit a big 3 to take back the lead.  After two Beltran free throws, this time it was Kevin Pangos with an even bigger 3 to push the Zags lead to four with just under two minutes to play.  Southern would fail to score the rest of the game and lose 64-58.  The 6-point win in the closest in a 1 vs 16 game since 1990 when Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in OT.  Most people weren't sold on Gonzaga being a top seed and this effort did nothing to silence their critics.

Oregon pulls off the first upset and looked good doing it

Oregon was not given much credit for winning the Pac-12 tournament as they received a 12-seed and faced 5-seed Oklahoma State.  The Ducks must have took offense to this because they jumped out to a 37-26 lead at halftime.  They balanced scoring as usual, with four guys in double figures led by Damyean Dotson with 17.  But it was Arsalan Kazemi who had 11 points and 17 rebounds that stood out for Oregon.  They also played great defense holding Marcus Smart and the Cowboys to only 40% from the field.  They play Saint Louis on Saturday which will be a tough test but the Ducks seem to have a chip on their shoulder so look for this to be a close one.

Cal gives payback to UNLV

Oregon isn't the only Pac-12 team that can pull off the famous 5-12 upset.  The Cal Bears took out UNLV, marking the first time two teams from the same conference won as 12-seeds.  This was a rematch from December, a game UNLV won 76-75, and again it came down to the last minute.  The Bears were led by Pac-12 POY Allen Crabbe who had 19 points and nine boards but it was reserve big man Robert Thurman who scored eight straight for Cal on four dunks.  The Bears will now try to use their "home court advantage" (they are player in San Jose) against Syracuse.

Louisville showed they are ready to make a run

The #1 team overall is Louisville and they did not want to leave any doubt in their game as they cruised to a 79-48 victory over 16-seed North Carolina A&T.  The pressure D that made the Cardinals the best defensive team in the country was in full force as they set a NCAA tournament record with 20 team steals.  Yes, 20, including eight by Russ Smith who also scored 23 points.  Louisville is said to have the hardest bracket, but also has the popular vote to win the title.  It's so easy to overlook teams (see Gonzaga) but with handling business they way they did, look for the Cards to be focused no matter who is their opponent.

VCU and Syracuse run opponents out of the gym

The VCU Rams are not sneaking up on anybody like they did back in 2011, but apparently the Akron Zips didn't get the memo.  VCU had an impressive showing with an 88-42 win.  Now I understand that Akron didn't have their starting point guard Alex Abreu (6 apg) but they were still MAC regular season and tournament champs.  Not having a PG is huge against a high pressure team like VCU, but the Rams were on point offensively as well.  They shot 54% from the field and 8-16 from downtown, 6-11 from Troy Daniels who scored 23.  That is exactly what VCU had going for them when they made their Final Four run in 2011, they pressed the heck out of you and were on fire from 3.  Michigan is up next, who has Trey Burke (the best assist/turnover ratio in the country), so it will be interesting to see how he handles the press.

Syracuse was another team that impressed as they crushed Montana 81-34.  Cuse was paced by Brandon Triche on offense as he put in 20.  But it was Jim Boeheim's patent 2-3 defense that shut down Montana from the outside as they only hit 4-31 (13%) from distance.  The Orange held the Grizzlies to 20% shooting overall and nobody on the team had more than five points.  Their next game against Cal will basically be a road game but if Syracuse can continue to lock up on D and be efficient on the offensive end this team is dangerous.



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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

South Region Breakdown

Down in the South region the Big 12 champ Kansas sits at the 1-seed.  The Jayhawks won a lot of this year but had a three game slide which included the biggest upset of the year, a loss at TCU.  They seem to be on track after winning their conference tournament by an average of 19.6 points a game.  Georgetown was one of the hottest teams in the country down the stretch and Otto Porter Jr. started making his case for national POY.  The Florida Gators might be the team to keep your eye on though as they rank #1 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings.  As for Michigan, there's a lot of people that think this team is overrated, like Yahoo! Sports who consider the Wolverines to be the biggest of their bracket lames.

Top Seeds
1. Kansas
2. Georgetown
3. Florida
4. Michigan

Sleepers
Is VCU still considered a sleeper? No? OK, then Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are a tough team to figure out.  They started the year 15-1 but finished 5-11.  They've beaten the likes of Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Memphis.  The biggest problem they have is inconsistent scoring.  If Andre and Austin Hollins can shoot better than their 40% averages this team has a chance to win a few games.  They play good defense and Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams like to pound the glass.

First Round Upset Alerts
4 Michigan vs 13 South Dakota State - This seems to be eerily similar to last years NCAA tournament for Michigan.  Ranked a 4-seed and going up against a team with a star guard.  Last time it was Ohio and D.J. Cooper (the only player ever with 2,000 points, 900 assists, 500 rebounds and 300 steals) who upset the Wolverines, this year Nate Wolters and South Dakota State will get their shot.  And shoot is what Wolters will do as he pours in 22.7 a game.  Michigan has struggled on defense all year, but the good thing for them is they are basically playing a home game at the Palace of Auburn Hills.  Oh yeah, and they have Trey Burke.

6 UCLA vs 11 Minnesota - The clear pick for an upset, not only by my standards but Las Vegas as well.  The sportsbooks opened this game with Minnesota as a 2.5 point favorite.  The 11 favored over the 6?  When you see things like that, it usually means the professional handicappers know something.  The biggest reason is UCLA's second leading scorer, Jordan Adams, suffered a broken foot in the Pac-12 tournament.  Look for the Gophers to take this game.

Possible Matchups
Kansas vs North Carolina - A second round matchup that looks a like a championship game.  Roy Williams going up against his old team Kansas for the third time.  So far the Jayhawks and Bill Self has gotten the best of Roy's Heels in the first two showdowns.  Even though they are an 8-seed UNC still has some quality players in James Michael McAdoo and Reggie Bullock.  But they will have a hard time containing Ben McLemore on the perimeter (16.4 ppg) and Jeff Withey inside (8.4 rpg, 3.8 bpg).

Georgetown vs Florida - This game was scheduled for the season opener on a ship but was called at halftime.  Florida is a team that scores and plays defense, but played in the SEC, the worst of the power 6 conferences.  All 26 of their wins were by double-digits, which is a good and bad thing.  Good for obvious reasons, bad because that means when this team plays close games they can't seem to finish (see the Arizona game).  Georgetown fell short to Indiana in OT in November and lost only one more game against a ranked team the rest of the year, in the Big East semis to Syracuse in OT.  The winner of this game will most likely represent the South in Atlanta and it should be a doosy.

My Pick
This is tough but...Georgetown.  Kansas will have a difficult time finding points against the Hoyas and Withey will get lost trying to defend their Princeton style offense.  As for Florida, it's for the sole reason of the Gators not being able to win close games.  At some point in the tournament every team is faced with adversity and need to either come back or hold on late in games.  Florida is great when they blow teams out but in crunch time they wilt.  Otto Porter on the other hand seems to thrive in those situations and will be the difference maker as Florida has nobody that can matchup with the Big East player of the year.



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East Region Breakdown

The Indiana Hoosiers are the top seed in the South region, the only 1-seed to not win their conference tournament.  IU was the preseason #1 and spent the most time atop the rankings.  The ACC champ Miami Hurricanes are a team that's proven itself throughout the season and should be expected to make some noise.  But other than that there isn't too much Indiana should fear.  Syracuse and Marquette are decent but not on the level of the top two seeds.  Of course we always have to keep an eye on everybody's favorite Cinderella, Butler, as Brad Stevens knows how to coach in March. 

Top Seeds
1. Indiana
2. Miami FL
3. Marquette
4. Syracuse

Sleepers
This region isn't very deep and picking a 5-seed doesn't really count as a sleeper but UNLV might surprise people.  When you have a player like freshman Anthony Bennett, who averages 16.2 points and 8 boards, your team can make a run.  Add senior point guard Anthony Marshall (10 ppg, 4 rpg, 6 apg) to the mix and that's a recipe for success in March.

First Round Upset Alerts
5 UNLV vs 12 California - So I mention a sleeper, then talk about them being upset in the first round.  This is a rematch of a game UNLV won 76-75 in Berkeley.  But aren't teams with higher seeds supposed to be playing closer to home?  Then how is this game being played in San Jose?  I understand that's not too far from Las Vegas either but that smells like some home cooking for Cal.  Both teams have NBA talent in the aforementioned Bennett for the Rebels and Alan Crabbe for the Bears.  Bennett will be a high lottery pick if he comes out this year.  Crabbe was the Pac-12 player of the year and puts up 18.7 points and 6 rebounds.

6 Butler vs 11 Bucknell - Yes, the upset specialists need to worry about getting upset.  The main reason is the Bison's Mike Muscala.  A 6'11 NBA ready center that posts 19 points and 11 rebounds a game.  Butler has huge wins over Indiana and Gonzaga this year but when going up against a player like Muscala if you don't come to play you'll be going home early.

7 Illinois vs 10 Colorado - Illinois started the season fast at 12-0 with wins over Butler and Gonzaga but had a hard time in the Big Ten only going 8-10 in conference play.  Brandon Paul can light it up but they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 41%.  Colorado isn't the best shooting team either (43%) but the combination of Spencer Dinwiddie (15.6 ppg) and Andre Roberson (11 ppg, 11 rpg) will be tough for the Illini to handle.  This could be one of the ugliest games of the first round if nobody is hitting their shots.

Possible Matchups 
Indiana vs Butler - Who wouldn't want to see this game again after the two played an overtime thriller back on December 15th that Butler won 88-86.  That was Indiana's first loss of the year and this would be great for the state of Indiana to start a new rivalry between these teams.

Miami FL vs Syracuse - Miami just took control of ACC basketball and Syracuse will be joining the conference next year.  What better way to welcome the Orange to the league than by meeting for a Final Four bid.

My Pick
It's either Indiana or Miami and it would be a great game.  Both teams matchup well in size while the Hoosiers are strong on offense and the Canes are strong on defense.  The difference is that Indiana has two national player of the year candidates in Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller.  I see Oladipo, the best all-around player in the country, leading this team to Atlanta and a Final Four birth.



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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Does Winning Your Conference Tournament Help Your NCAA Chances?

Every conference has one (except the Ivy League) and whoever wins gets a free ticket to the national tournament (except the Great West).  I'm talking about conference tournaments.  In an earlier posting I shared my excitement for championship week.  But come bracket time, I never shared that excitement with picking teams that won their conference tournament to win the national tournament.  My reasoning was that I felt it's very difficult for a team, even the best in the country, to show up roughly ten straight games in win or go home situations and come out the victor.  Especially when going up against the top competition in the nation.  Boy was I wrong, no wonder why I can never win a bracket challenge.

Since some of the power conferences didn't have tournaments prior to 1998 (Big 12 1997, Big Ten 1998, Pac-12 2002) so I went back 15 years.  But the numbers are staggering.  Of teams that won their conference tournament 26 of 60 (43%) were Final Four teams, 16 of 30 (53%) made the Finals, and 10 of 15 (67%) were National Champions.

To some it seems obvious, partly because only two (2011 UConn and 2006 Florida) were not a 1-seed.  But there are only six teams that win a title in power conferences (no team outside power six has won national title), which means there are far more quality teams that don't.  You hear it every year from big time coaches like Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski, they are almost happy for losing early in the conference tourney because it gives their team a chance to rest.  But we know now that's actually a bad thing.  How much rest do their teams need anyway?  We have to remember these are 19-21 year olds, not 30 year old season vets with bad knees.  So the rest thing really shouldn't be much of a factor.

This is just some food for thought while you are filling out the all important bracket.  Before you get too high on certain teams here's a list of top 4-seed teams that did not bring home a conference tournament championship

Indiana, Duke, Georgetown, Florida, Michigan State, Marquette, Michigan, Kansas State, Syracuse

Here's a list of teams that won a title to keep an eye on

Louisville (Big East), Kansas (Big 12), Gonzaga (West Coast), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami FL (ACC), New Mexico (Mountain West), Saint Louis (A-10), Ole Miss (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12)

And, here's the list of Final Four teams from the last 15 yeaers.

Teams in parenthesis won their conference tournament. Underlined teams won championship. Bold teams were in the finals.


2012 – Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, (Louisville)
2011 – (UConn), (Butler), (Kentucky), VCU
2010 – (Duke), (Butler), (West Virginia), Michigan State
2009 – UNC, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova
2008 – (Kansas), Memphis, (UNC), (UCLA)
2007 – (Florida), (Ohio State), (Georgetown), UCLA
2006 – (Florida), (UCLA), LSU, George Mason
2005 – UNC, (Illinois), Louisville, Michigan State
2004 – (UConn), Georgia Tech, Duke, (Oklahoma State)
2003 – Syracuse, Kansas, Texas, Marquette
2002 – Maryland, Indiana, Kansas, (Oklahoma)
2001 – (Duke), Arizona, Michigan State, Maryland
2000 – (Michigan State), Florida, UNC, Wisconsin
1999 – (UConn), (Duke), (Michigan State), Ohio State
1998 – (Kentucky), Utah, (UNC), Stanford

National Champions – 10 of 15
Finals appearances – 16 of 30
Final Four appearances – 26 of 60



 

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West Region Breakdown

In the West region we have the controversial 1-seed Gonzaga.  The biggest knock on the Bulldogs is they didn't beat anybody to deserve a top seed as their 96th ranked strength of schedule proves that.  In my opinion this is the weakest bracket as far as top seeds, which then makes this the most difficult to choose.  Ohio State will likely get the bulk of the picks to come out because they seem to be hitting their stride and Aaron Craft is giving Deshaun Thomas the scoring help he needs.  But, don't be surprised to see a lot of teams crossed out on this side of your bracket once we reach the Final Four.

Top Seeds
1. Gonzaga
2. Ohio State
3. New Mexico
4. Kansas State

Sleepers
Like I said, anything can happen in this bracket so of course there's going to be sleepers.  Analysts have mentioned Belmont and Iowa State but the biggest is Pittsburgh.  Ranked seventh in Ken Pomeroy's overall rankings, the Panthers have size and athleticism to compete with anybody in their region.  Offensively they rank 18th in FG% and defensively they hold opponents to only 55.4 points per game.  Tray Woodall is the type of senior leader that can guide this team to a deep run in the tournament.

First Round Upset Alerts
4 Kansas State vs 13 LaSalle/Boise State - K-State better not take its play-in opponent lightly.  Depending if LaSalle or Boise State win, they both have potential to upset the Wildcats.  The Explorers have wins over Butler, VCU and Villanova and Ramon Galloway can go off on any night.  As for the Broncos, they pushed MSU at the Breslin only losing by four and beat Creighton on the road by 13.  Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks both average over 16 points.

5 Wisconsin vs 12 Ole Miss - Wisconsin was the surprise of the Big Ten but that's typical for Bo Ryan to produce with players we've never heard of.  Another thing that's typical are his teams going out early in the tournament.  It almost seems when the Badgers are expected to do well, they disappoint.  Marshall Henderson of Ole Miss can really fill it up as he's scoring 20 a game but his mouth gets him just as much publicity.  He did say he's taking after Jalen Rose and the Fab Five so I can't hate the guy too much.  But, the player to watch is Murphy Holloway.  A 6'7" bruiser that averages 14.6 points and 9.6 rebounds.  Bo's team plays good D and they will need it in this game.

6 Arizona vs 11 Belmont - The Belmont Bruins are a great shooting team led by Ian Clark who averages 18.1 ppg while shooting 54% from the field and 46% from deep.  He's hit nine 3's in a game this year so watch out if he gets hot.  The Wildcats started 17-1 but struggled against the top teams in the Pac-12.  This team has been susceptible to upsets the second half of the season so they need to be on watch.

7 Notre Dame vs 10 Iowa State - Jack Cooley is a double-double machine for the Irish but Iowa State has the ability to shoot anybody out of the tournament.  The Cyclones are the prototypical team that can pull off upsets because they lead the nation in made 3's at 9.8 per game.  Tyrus McGee, Korie Lucious and Chris Babb all have made more than 60 3-pointers this year but it's Will Clyburn that does a little bit of everything for this team.  If ISU is on from long range they can do damage.

Possible Matchups
Gonzaga vs Pittsburgh - I'm someone that actually isn't hating on the Zags.  I believe they should be a 1-seed but Pitt poses a big problem for the Bulldogs.  Gonzaga's strength is their big men Kelly Olynyk (7'0) and Elias Harris (6'8) but the Panthers can match that size with Steven Adams (7'0) and Talib Zanna (6'9).  If Pitt is able to slow down the attack of Gonzaga it will make this an interesting one.  But the Zags score 77 points and shoot 50% per game so that is easier said than done.

Ohio State vs New Mexico - I believe that whoever wins this game comes out of this region.  New Mexico can struggle at times on offense but their defense is always present.  The Lobos won a Mountain West regular season and conference title behind Kendall Williams who dropped 46 earlier this year against Colorado St.  Ohio State is on a roll right now winning eight straight and a B1G tournament title along the way.  Deshaun Thomas leads this team in scoring at 19.5 a game but Aaron Craft will be the deciding factor.  If he can continue to contribute offensively they will surely make their way to Atlanta.

My Pick
Again, this region comes down to Ohio State-New Mexico and I'm taking the Buckeyes.  OSU is hot right now and somehow have gotten stronger at the end of a rugged Big Ten season.  Defensively this team can stop anybody and Craft is one of the best on-ball defenders in the country.  To start the year they had difficulty beating ranked teams but won four late in the season over Indiana, Michigan State (twice) and Wisconsin.



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Midwest Region Breakdown

The Midwest region of the NCAA tournament is recognized as the toughest in the bracket and for good reason.  Despite being the #1 overall seed, Louisville has to contend with Duke, Michigan State, and a sneaky good Saint Louis team.  Not only does this region have good teams but great players as well.  Creighton's Doug McDermott is second in the nation in scoring with 23 points per game and is up for player of the year.  While Oklahoma State has a freshman of the year candidate in Marcus Smart.  This side of the bracket will have a lot to watch for.

Top Seeds
1. Louisville
2. Duke
3. Michigan State
4. Saint Louis

Sleepers
I really like Saint Louis.  This team plays great defense and Dwayne Evans is a physical presence inside.  But they are a 4-seed so a sleeper to watch for has to be the Oregon Ducks.  This team was sitting atop the Pac-12 before their point guard Dominic Artis went down in late January and the Ducks lost three of their next four games.  Artis is healthy again and Oregon is back in a groove after winning the Pac-12 tournament.

First Round Upset Alerts
5 Oklahoma State vs 12 Oregon - The 12-5 upset that we see every year.  Obviously, I like Oregon for reasons I stated above but also I'm not sure how they are ranked this low.  With all its players healthy the Ducks have six players that average at least 8.5 points and Arsalan Kazemi cleans up the boards with 9.5 per game.  Oklahoma State likes to play uptempo but if the Ducks control the pace they have a good shot at winning multiple games.

7 Creighton vs 10 Cincinnati - Offense vs Defense.  I mentioned McDermott being a POY candidate and the Bluejays lead the nation in field goal percentage.  As for the Bearcats, they pride themselves on defense.  Cincy ranks 8th in country in rebounding and if they can keep the game in the 60's instead of the 70's they have a great chance of advancing.

Possible Match Ups
Louisville vs Saint Louis - If you like good defense this is the game for you as both teams only give up around 58 points per game.  Louisville ranks #1 in adjusted defense in Ken Pomeroy's rankings while Saint Louis might be the most physical team in the country.  The Billikens were 5-1 against ranked teams and won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament championships, a conference that sent five teams to the NCAA tournament.

Louisville vs Duke - A rematch of a game earlier this season that Duke won 76-71.  However, this time the Cardinals have Gorgui Dieng who will look to neutralize Mason Plumlee down low.  Duke received a boost when they got Ryan Kelly back from a foot injury and he poses match-up problems for other teams bigs.

My Pick
This is a tough bracket to pick because of the threat from so many teams but I'm going with Louisville.  The best defense and the hottest team in the nation after plowing through the Big East tournament.  I turned their championship game against Syracuse on with just under 16 minutes in the second half with the Orange up 16.  Louisville proceeded to close the game on a 49-16, enough said.  Coach Rick Pitino better bust out his white suit when the reach the Final Four.



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Thursday, March 14, 2013

6 Teams That Have Something To Prove In Conference Tournaments

For teams on the bubble, conference tournaments are their last chance to state their case on why they should be invited to the NCAA tournament.  However, for Final Four contenders it's their time to show they aren't getting the respect they deserve.  A lot can be said about a team that wins their conference tourney and the momentum that it provides into the national tournament.  The 2011 Connecticut team is a prime example.  They lost four of their last six to end the season then proceeded to win four games in four days for the Big East title.  That led to a run for the national championship, thanks in large part to Kemba Walker.  These teams need to show us what they got during Championship Week.


ACC

Miami FL

The Hurricanes won the ACC regular season title for the first time since joining the league in 2004.  A month ago this team was ranked #2 in the nation and started 13-0 in the ACC with blowouts over Duke and North Carolina.  However, they lost three (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech) of their last five games and some doubters are starting to creep up on The U.  The biggest reason is all the love that Duke is getting since Ryan Kelly came back.  All of a sudden people are forgetting the fact that Miami routed the Blue Devils 90-63 at home.  Or that if Ryan Kelly didn't have the game of his life (36 pts, 7-9 3FG) Duke might not have got their 79-76 win at Cameron Indoor.  Miami has quality players in Shane Larkin, Kenny Kadji, and Durand Scott but has some head scratching losses.  However, when big games arrive Miami has came to play.  Along with huge wins over Duke, UNC, and NC State, they've also taken down Michigan State 67-59.  If they are able to win the ACC tournament and beat Duke again in the championship game, this team will be riding high into the big dance.


Big 12

Kansas State

Kansas State has always been the red-headed step child in the Big 12, mostly because of the dominance their rival Kansas has had over the league.  Even though they won its first ever conference title this year (albeit shared with Kansas), again this team is forgotten.  All the talk for the Big 12 making noise in the post season is for KU and Oklahoma State, nothing at all for the Wildcats.  It shows in the picks made by ESPN's college basketball writers for the conference tournament champion.  Baylor was even shown some love!  K-State is the Big 12's second highest ranked team in the top 25 but there's no faith in them.  It is understandable in the fact that they were only 2-5 against ranked teams.  One player to watch for is Rodney McGruder.  This is a guy that can carry a team in tournament play and will have to if the Wildcats want to succeed.  If there's a team on this list similar to the 2011 UConn team, this is the one.  A run in the Big 12 tournament with wins over Baylor/Oklahoma State and Kansas, anything is possible.


Big East

Marquette

Louisville and Georgetown shared a Big East title with another team can you guess who?  Syracuse?  No.  Pittsburgh?  No.  Connecticut?  No.  It was Marquette, yes, Marquette.  Their first title since a guy named Dwyane Wade won one in 2003 when they were still in Conference USA.  This team probably doesn't have one player that will make the NBA but it epitomizes the word TEAM.  How else can you beat the likes of Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh with inferior talent.  Another component is their coach, Buzz Williams.  I love coaches that are intense and this guy is crazy, but he knows how to get a team to play together.  They've won low scoring games (49-48), high scoring games (89-78) and three games in overtime.  With a share in the Big East and a 23-7 record, some how this team is still under the radar.  The Big East tournament is always grueling for any team.  If the Golden Eagles are able to make the championship game or better yet, win the title, the country will have no choice but to give them the respect they deserve.


Big Ten

Michigan

Oh Michigan.  How you frustrate me.  For the first time since the Fab Five in 1993, the Wolverines reached #1 in the country.  But they inexcusably lost at Penn State (winless in the Big Ten), Wisconsin's Ben Brust will forever be remembered with Evan Turner for hitting a half court shot, and the Indiana game reminds us of the importance of free throws.  The IU game not only lost Michigan a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but also dropped them to a fifth seed in the Big Ten tournament.  That's not a good thing because that means no bye and having to go through three of the top four teams instead of two.  The one thing Michigan has though is Trey Burke.  The B1G player of the year and currently still the front runner for national POY.  With a guy like him on your team you are never out of it.  The Wolverines are one of the best offensive teams in the country with four guys that can go off for 20+ on any given night.  Their problem is defense.  With no real lockdown defender on the perimeter or in the post, their best bet it to outscore the other team.  They have the talent to beat any team in the country, especially if they are hitting their 3's.  A Big Ten tournament title could lead to another trip to the Final Four, also a place the Wolverines haven't been since the Fab Five.  Oh wait, that never happened, right?


Pac-12

Arizona

The Wildcats were ranked as high as #4 in the country with wins over Florida, Miami, and San Diego State to start the year.  Now, they enter the Pac-12 tournament as the #4 seed behind UCLA, Cal, and Oregon.  Even with that, they are still recognized as the favorite according to Las Vegas books.  But, their national attention has slowly faded throughout the season.  This team has solid players in Xavier transfer Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, and Nick Johnson so they aren't short on talent.  Last year the Pac-12 only had one team enter the NCAA tournament (Colorado because of an automatic bid) so the nation is still not too keen on these west coast teams.  However, Arizona has shown us they can compete with high quality competition and win.  So, this is not a team that should be taken lightly.  The Wildcats lost to all of the top three teams during conference play  For Arizona to be looked at as a Final Four contender they need to run through the Pac-12 tournament win a vengeance.


Mountain West

New Mexico

Originally, I was going to talk about the SEC but since the Mountain West will have more teams in the NCAA tournament and is a better league top to bottom, they get the mention.  The MWC will likely get four, possibly five, teams in the big dance.  The cream of the crop are the Lobos and Steve Alford's squad is currently ranked #2 in RPI.  They won't beat you with any sort of flash, but will wear you down on defense and make you play at their pace.  The biggest sore spot on their record was a 55-34 loss at San Diego State.  To only score 34 points in a game is embarrassing, which is their problem.  They only shoot 42% from the field, ranking 222nd nationally.  However, Kendall Williams is a player that if he gets hot he's very difficult to stop.  In a game at Colorado State, Williams scored 46 points on 10-13 from three in a 91-82 victory.  As you can see New Mexico has the capability of putting up big numbers but they can also lay an egg.  Taking home a regular season and tournament championship in very good Mountain West conference will tell us that the Lobos are no joke.


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Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Championship Week Is More Exciting Than The NCAA Tournament

For college basketball junkies March means March Madness.  To many this is their favorite sporting event.  The time where you can't wait to fill out your bracket and show everybody your knowledge, or lack thereof.  The NCAA tournament brings people that will never talk about basketball to the water cooler at work asking "who's in your final four"?  But Championship Week is actually more exciting to watch than the Big Dance.

Think about it.  The NCAA tournament consists of 68 teams playing 67 games spread across three weekends.  Championship Week (March 11-17) sees 16 conference tournaments go from start and finish within one week.  170 teams playing 154 games in ONE week.  The sheer volume of games is impressive.  Of the NCAA tournament, personally, the first weekend is my favorite.  Multiple games on from noon until midnight excites me more than Final Four weekend.  But that's nothing compared to what we get with the conference tournaments.  Now I understand the quality of play is not always as good when watching leagues like the Big Sky and the SWAC but the most important games for these teams are in the conference tournaments.  Their only hope to get some sort of national recognition is to get an automatic bid.  Some teams will only be a 15 or 16 seed, or even worse end up in the play-in games.  But that doesn't matter to them, just as long as they make it.

Not to mention, in conference tournaments you have one more chance against your rival to knock them out in a win or go home situation.  It's rare that a team will play it's rival, or even another team from their conference in the NCAA tournament.  Don't get me wrong, that's part of the beauty of it.  But one more chance to watch Duke-North Carolina, Michigan-Michigan State, or Syracuse-Georgetown is always a good thing.  Especially if you have yet to beat your rival in the regular season but you get them in a tournament.  You can always say your team won when it mattered.

The biggest factor for me though is how much effort teams put into these games.  Even in the major conferences more than half will only get into the NCAA tournament by getting the automatic bid that also comes with a conference tournament title.  I feel this creates a sense of urgency with teams and can cause them to play better than we ever thought they could.  Who can forget the run Gerry McNamara had with Syracuse in the 2006 Big East tournament.  The Orange won four games in four days to capture the Big East title as McNamara hit game-winning three's and led the team to overtime wins and an NCAA birth the only way it could get one.

I look forward to March Madness every year.  I fill out my bracket with great thought and effort, hoping I can out-pick friends and co-workers.  I sit on the edge of my seat during every game with it by my side, hoping I don't have to tear it up before the first weekend is over.  But as a fan of watching games, I'll take Championship Week and watch as many of the 170 games as I can in seven days.



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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

College Basketball Power Rankings: March 12

The regular season is over and we are only a week away from the NCAA tournament.  Some teams showed us what they were made of to close out their season (Duke and Indiana) while others seemed to be looking ahead (Kansas and Florida).  Duke and Gonzaga are tops with Indiana and Louisville hot on their heels.  There's a lot more to be told as the major conference tournaments start this week.  Let's get it.
  1. Duke (27-4, LW 3) - Duke's rout of North Carolina on the road 69-53 and the return of Ryan Kelly puts the Blue Devils back on top.  Kelly not only provides a scoring lift but he makes the rest of the team better just by being on the court.  Case in point, Mason Plumlee had his best in the past month game at UNC (23 pts, 13 rebs) because of the spacing of Kelly.
  2. Gonzaga (30-2, LW 1) - Gonzaga could have been listed as 1B because I still feel they are a legit team, Duke is just a little better.  They closed out their undefeated conference season with a 65-51 win over St. Mary's last night.  The WCC was no match for them but people just want to see if they are worthy of the #1 seed they will receive.
  3. Indiana (26-5, LW 2) - Earlier is the week Indiana lost at home to Ohio State 67-58 which opened the door for the Big Ten championship.  It all came down to their road game at Michigan and Cody Zeller made a layup with 14 seconds left for their first out right Big Ten title since 1993.
  4. Louisville (26-5, LW 7) - The Cardinals avenged their 5 OT loss to Notre Dame 73-57 behind Gorgui Dieng's 20 and 11.  This team is poised to make a strong run in the Big East and NCAA tournaments after winning 10 of their last 11.
  5. Georgetown (24-5, LW 4) - Georgetown is another Big East team that's playing really well.  The lost to Villanova to begin the week 67-57 but came back with holding Jim Boeheim's team to its lowest points of his career 61-39.  The Big East tournament will be one of the best of Championship week.
  6. Kansas (26-5, LW 5) - Kansas lost to Baylor 81-58, their worst loss in seven years.  They could have won't the Big 12 title outright but instead had to share it with their rival Kansas State.  The Jayhawks might have been looking ahead to the tournaments because they seemed uninterested.
  7. Michigan State (24-7, LW 11) - Sparty finished their season with a solid win over Wisconsin 58-43.  Keith Appling has gotten back on track scoring 35 points in his last two games.  This team is also dangerous come tournament time and this year is no different.
  8. Michigan (25-6, LW 8) - Ugh.  The entire Big Ten was watching, Michigan State and Ohio State fans were even cheering for them, but Michigan choked away their game against Indiana and a four way tie for the Big Ten title.  The Wolverines lost a five point lead with 50 seconds left because of missed FREE THROWS by Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.  Next up Penn State in the B1G tourney, great.
  9. Florida (24-6, LW 9) - The Gators had a SEC title all wrapped up before they played Kentucky so losing 61-57 only hurts their seeding for the time being.  Florida didn't score in the last seven and a half minutes of the game, we'll see if they were looking ahead or if there's problems in the swamp after losing three of six.
  10. Ohio State (23-7, LW NR) - OSU ended the year with five straight wins and took out Indiana on the road last week thanks to Aaron Craft's 15 points on 7-10 shooting.  The Buckeyes will Craft's play to stay consistent to go with Deshaun Thomas if they want to continue their recent success.
  11. Miami FL (24-6, LW 6) - The Canes won 14 straight but lost three of five to end the year including shockers to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.  Miami needs a strong showing in the ACC tourney believers back on their side.
  12. Oklahoma State (23-7, LW 13) - OK-State lost at Iowa State 87-76 earlier but finished the week with a good 76-70 victory over Kansas State.  This team surprised the Big 12 finishing third in the conference and are a team to watch for a Big 12 tournament title.
  13. Marquette (23-7, LW 14) - Buzz Williams' team needed a last second shot by Vander Blue to secure an OT win over St. John's 69-67.  More importantly the win secured a share of the Big East regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown, Marquette's first since joining the league.
  14. Kansas State (25-6, LW 10) - Despite a loss to end their season, the Wildcats still managed to share the Big 12 title with Kansas.  This team was only 2-5 against ranked opponents, it will be interesting to see how they fare in the tournaments to come.
  15. New Mexico (25-4, LW 12) - New Mexico is known for its defense but couldn't get a stop when it mattered against Air Force.  The Falcons hit two 3's in the final 16 seconds to pull off the upset 89-88.  The Lobos still hold a 3-seed in Joe Lundari's bracketology but need a strong showing in a difficult Mountain West tournament to keep it.
Biggest Jump - Ohio State up 5
Biggest Drop - Miami FL down 5

New Editions - #10 Ohio State
Old News -  Saint Louis



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