NBA Western Conference First Round Predictions

The West is filled with story lines and great matchups.  Can James Harden get revenge on his old team?  Can the elder Spurs handle the Kobe-less Lakers?  Can the short handed Nuggets out run the young Warriors?  Will the Clippers and Grizzlies give us another 7-game thriller?  If you like watching teams put points on the board these are the games for you as seven of the top eight scoring teams are in the West.

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 8 Houston Rockets

The Thunder and Rockets pulled off the biggest trade of the year before the season even started when OKC shipped James Harden and others to Houston in exchange for Kevin Martin and draft picks.  When the trade went down back in November we discussed it here and thought that it worked out great for both sides and it turns out, it did.  And wouldn't you know, they get matched up in the first round of the playoffs.  With the move to Houston, Harden put up career bests across the board including 25.9 points, good for 5th in the league.  In their first meeting Harden had a tough time in his return to OKC going 3-16 with 17 points.  But in the Rockets lone win against the Thunder, Harden went off for 46 on 14-19 shooting with seven 3s.  Also in that game Kevin Durant recorded his 2nd triple-double of the year in the 122-119 loss.  With the departure of Harden, Serge Ibaka hit a career high with 13.2 points and 7.7 rebounds.  As for Martin, he saw his points drop to 14 a game but 3-point percentage was his best at 42%.  Both of these teams can score as they were second and third in the league in points.  But OKC plays better defense, giving up six fewer points a game.  The Thunder were the best in point differential at +9.2 and have the players to slow down the Rockets.  Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins, and Ibaka can all play lockdown defense and Westbrook and Durant have improved from a year ago.  The Rockets are just in a bad matchup with a team that is similar but better.  Houston can score but they don't have the weapons to match the Thunder.  They might get one game in Houston but that's it.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

2 San Antonio Spurs vs 7 Los Angeles Lakers

After Kobe Bryant went down with only three games left in the year with a torn Achilles the playoff picture didn't look bright.  However, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol seem to be rejuvenated.  In their last two games, against San Antonio and Houston, Howard looked like back in his Magic days dominating at both ends of the court and Gasol posted a monster triple-double against the Rockets with 17 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists.  Also, with Steve Nash still out, Steve Blake scored 23 and 24 points in both of those games.  Bryant won't be back this year and it didn't take long for the new look Lakers to mesh and come up with big wins when they needed them most.  If LAL lost either of those games we would have seen the Utah Jazz in the playoffs instead.  But the Lakers reward for barely squeaking in is a chance to play the Spurs.  Speaking of rejuvenation, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are having their best seasons in the past three or four years.  Duncan (17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.7 bpg) looks like Timmy that played with David Robinson, and Parker (20.3 ppg, 7.6 apg) is carving up defenses more than ever, averaging 20 for the second time in his career.  But Manu Ginobili on the other hand is have his worst season (11.8 ppg) since his rookie year.  We've seen Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green step up in his stead as both of them are putting up double-digits for the first time.  The Spurs have more experience than any other team in the playoffs with Kobe now out.  It's interesting to see how Gasol has now become the playmaker which has opened the lane up for Howard to do what he does best, dunk.  It will be a battle down low with them and the Spurs Duncan and Tiago Splitter.  So to me it's going to come down to guard play and even though Blake has played well lately, including getting the better of the Frenchman in their recent matchup, Parker is too good and too experienced to let that happen over a 7-game series.  I do think this will be a great series even without Kobe, but the Spurs are too deep for the Lakers.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

3 Denver Nuggets vs 6 Golden State Warriors

I hope you can keep up if you're going to watch this series as these might be the two fastest teams in the NBA.  The Denver Nuggets come into the playoffs short-handed with their second leading scorer Danilo Gallinari out for the season with a torn ACL and Kenneth Faried, their leading rebounder, questionable with a sore ankle.  The Nuggets have done well all year without a superstar player but unless Faried can get back in the lineup soon they might have some problems.  One thing Denver has going for it is their great home court advantage.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA at 38-3.  With Gallinari out, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer have seen more minutes and both have played well.  Denver has so many weapons, nine players average between eight and 16 points, which is a main reason they led the league in scoring.  But for the Golden State Warriors, they rely heavily on their three main guns of Stephen Curry, David Lee, and Klay Thompson.  Curry averaged a career high 22.9 points while setting a NBA record 3-pointers made with 272, breaking Ray Allen's old mark by three.  Curry is the best shooter in the league and his backcourt mate, Thompson, also likes to let it fly from deep.  In only his second year, Thompson averaged 16.6 a game and hit 40% from downtown.  But their most consistent player was Lee who put up 18.5 points and 11.2 boards a game and gives the Warriors an inside presence to go with their great guard play.  Both these teams will run and gun as this might be the most entertaining series in the first round.  But while GS likes to shoot from beyond the arc, Denver scored more points in the paint than anybody.  It's because of that, I think the Nuggets will take this series easily.  The fact that they get easy buckets and the Warriors need to be hitting jumpers bodes well for the rich and creamy's.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

4 Los Angeles Clippers vs 5 Memphis Grizzlies 

In the first round of last years playoffs these two teams met and gave us an exciting 7-game series.  The Clippers were also the 4-seed a season ago and benefited from having the deciding game at home.  Both teams have new editions, but the Clippers have gotten more production out of theirs.  LAC added Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, and Lamar Odom in the off-season and all have contributed in their own right.  But, none more than Crawford.  His last four years he's provided instant offense from the bench and has given the Clips 16.5 a game in his first season with the team.  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have seen their points go down from last year but they are getting help from all over as they are scoring more as a team.  DeAndre Jordan has provided an offensive lift to lob city and has the poster of the year, sorry Brandon Knight.  For the Memphis Grizzlies, they traded away their leading scorer, Rudy Gay, midway through the year.  Along with Gay, the other main guy sent away was Marreese Speights and in return they received Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis to fill those voids.  Prince stepped into the starting lineup and added more defense to an already great defensive team.  The Grizzlies score the least out of any West playoff team with 93.4, but give up the fewest points in the NBA at 89.3.  With getting rid of their leading scorer, the offense falls on the shoulders of Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol.  Randolph and Gasol are a load inside for anybody.  In a league that is starting to play smaller, the Grizzlies are one of the few teams that still like to play big.  Conley has improved and raised his production, putting up 14.6 points, which is a career high.  This series going to come down to who controls the tempo of the game.  Paul likes to get the Clippers in transition and Conley wants to slow things down to take advantage to Memphis' bigs.  But LAC is a team that can handle the Grizz down low.  Jordan and Griffin have the size to matchup with Randolph and Gasol.  But can Conley and Tony Allen slow down Paul and Crawford?  That's the biggest question and also to me the Clippers are just too deep.  They have too many scoring threats and even though Memphis is one of the best defensive teams, the Clippers will still find ways to put points on the board.

Prediction: Clippers in 7

James Harden Makes Return To OKC

With tonight being the first meeting between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets since the James Harden-Kevin Martin deal I figured I'd bring it full circle.  It's still early in the season but each team and key players in the deal seemed to have established themselves.  Record wise not much has changed, the Thunder are still one of the top teams in the league at 11-4 while the Rockets are .500 (they finished 34-32 last year).

When the deal happened the Thunder had a bigger hole to fill, not just in the stat sheet but also with the chemistry of the team.  So far Martin has filled in nice statistically as Harden’s replacement.  Martin is averaging 15.7 points shooting 45 percent from the field, 49 percent from three and 94 percent from the line.  Last year for the Thunder, Harden averaged 16.8 points shooting 49 percent from the field, 39 percent from three and 84 from the line.  The Thunder as a team are averaging more points per game and giving up less than last season.  As for the chemistry, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were going to be the biggest factor as to welcoming Martin and they seemed to have used his style of play very well.  Both players have seen their scoring and shot attempts go down but assists go up.  The only spot Martin might lack where Harden thrived is taking over the scoring load when Westbrook and Durant were out of the game.  But, Thunder coach Scott Brooks has adjusted his game plan and has been able to keep his team a title contender.

In a previous post I posed the question “can James Harden be a #1?” and I would say he has shown flashes that he can be the leader of the Rockets, he just needs a little more help.  Right now Harden is fifth in the league in scoring, averaging 25.1 (only .8 behind his old teammate Durant).  We’ve seen his assists jump to 5.4 but also his turnovers to 4.1 while all his shooting percentages have gone down.  With Harden already coming in as a star the Rockets were going to be built around his style of play unlike Martin trying to fit in with the Thunder.  Houston brought in Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik with big contracts as well so they had three new starters to their lineup, which basically creates a whole new team.  But even with these new players the Rockets are in the same place they were last year, fighting for a playoff spot in the highly contested Western Conference.  If the Rockets want to become a playoff staple they will need to find better compliments to Harden than Lin and Chandler Parsons (Houston’s second leading scorer).

I still believe the Thunder came out on top in the trade.  I wouldn’t say Houston lost because they received a top three shooting guard in the NBA but so far Kevin Martin has fit in nicely with the Thunder.  Let’s not also forget that OKC gets two first round draft picks from Houston and a second rounder.  So the trade turned out good for the Rockets because they have a superstar to build a team around.  But the trade turned out great for the Thunder because they are still title contenders with the opportunity to get better through the draft, which OKC is known for doing.

Can James Harden Be A #1 Option?

     Late Saturday night while I was out watching the Tigers-Giants game 3 of the World Series and Michigan-Nebraska in college football came interesting news from the NBA.  James Harden, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, was traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Houston Rockets.  Like everybody else my first reaction was shock that the Thunder, who had a core of three superstars at age 24 or younger, would trade away one these players.  Instantly, I felt the Rockets had pulled off the robbery of arguably the leagues most coveted shooting guard.  Then I began to think about the entirety of this trade and began to change my opinion.  Here is the full breakdown of the trade.  Houston receives James Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, and Lazar Hayward.  OKC gets Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks and a second-round pick.

     I was discussing the trade with a friend who made a great point.  He said, "with taking age into consideration there is no other shooting guard in the NBA today that I would trade James Harden for straight up."  And it's true!  I tried to come up with 5 other shooting guards and if you are looking for a long term player nobody compares to Harden, who is 23 and averaged 16.8 points per game last year.  Here is my list...

1. Kobe Bryant - Great career and some still think he's the best in the league but has played 16 years, is 34 years old and is said to be retiring when his contract is up in two years.
2. Dwyane Wade - Another player with a nice trophy case but turned 30 this year and required offseason knee surgery.  His numbers have also gone down the last three seasons.
3. Stephen Curry - At 24 he still has room to improve his career stats of 17 ppg, 47% FG, 44% 3PT, and 90% FT.  However, he has the terrible label of a "tweener" being an undersized 2 guard and with those numbers coming on a bad team it's tough to know his worth.
4. Andre Iguodala - In his prime at 28, can rebound and pass well for his position.  He also can defend multiple positions but can struggle scoring with an inconsistent jumpshot.
5. Joe Johnson - Involved in a big trade that sent him from the Atlanta Hawks to the Brooklyn Nets and is a proven scorer that has shown he can lead his team to the playoffs.  Not known to play much defense and at 31 is on the downside of his career.

     With that being said I believe the Thunder has come out on top of this trade.  Even though Harden has so much hype around him right now we still have a lot of questions to be answered.  The biggest one is can he lead a team as their number one option.  In OKC he formed a great "Big 3" with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but remember Harden was the third option.  Now he will be the go to guy drawing the attention of the other teams best perimeter defender so we still have to see if he can handle that role.  The guy to replace Harden from this trade is Kevin Martin.  A player that has averaged 20+ points in five seasons and that is the only thing the Thunder are going to ask him to do, score.  Martin has a stigma about him that he is not very coachable but this guy has only been on bad teams in Sacramento and Houston, players in those situations usually have a "I'mma get mine" mentality.  Coming to a winning team with a great coach like Scott Brooks could be what Martin needs to change his attitude and become a scoring threat that knows his role to help his team win.  To add in Jeremy Lamb, a lottery pick this year, and two more first-round picks the Thunder will have options to reload an already stellar young team.  Who knows, both first-round picks could each be in the lottery again.  The addition of Harden and Jeremy Lin (very overrated) to the Rockets this offseason don't make this team a lock for the playoffs by any means.

     The one aspect of the trade that concerns me about the Thunder is breaking up the great bond that Durant, Westbrook and Harden had formed.  They had fun on the court together and they made each other better.  You can't replace a player like James Harden and losing him may hurt the Thunder's chances of winning a title this year, but looking to the future I think they made good decision.  And with how OKC has been able to draft lately, they will take full advantage of the picks they received.  A lot of credit goes Thunder GM Sam Presti because he was able to unload a player that might not have been back with the team after this season and picked up key pieces in return.