NBA Western Conference First Round Predictions

The West is filled with story lines and great matchups.  Can James Harden get revenge on his old team?  Can the elder Spurs handle the Kobe-less Lakers?  Can the short handed Nuggets out run the young Warriors?  Will the Clippers and Grizzlies give us another 7-game thriller?  If you like watching teams put points on the board these are the games for you as seven of the top eight scoring teams are in the West.

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 8 Houston Rockets

The Thunder and Rockets pulled off the biggest trade of the year before the season even started when OKC shipped James Harden and others to Houston in exchange for Kevin Martin and draft picks.  When the trade went down back in November we discussed it here and thought that it worked out great for both sides and it turns out, it did.  And wouldn't you know, they get matched up in the first round of the playoffs.  With the move to Houston, Harden put up career bests across the board including 25.9 points, good for 5th in the league.  In their first meeting Harden had a tough time in his return to OKC going 3-16 with 17 points.  But in the Rockets lone win against the Thunder, Harden went off for 46 on 14-19 shooting with seven 3s.  Also in that game Kevin Durant recorded his 2nd triple-double of the year in the 122-119 loss.  With the departure of Harden, Serge Ibaka hit a career high with 13.2 points and 7.7 rebounds.  As for Martin, he saw his points drop to 14 a game but 3-point percentage was his best at 42%.  Both of these teams can score as they were second and third in the league in points.  But OKC plays better defense, giving up six fewer points a game.  The Thunder were the best in point differential at +9.2 and have the players to slow down the Rockets.  Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins, and Ibaka can all play lockdown defense and Westbrook and Durant have improved from a year ago.  The Rockets are just in a bad matchup with a team that is similar but better.  Houston can score but they don't have the weapons to match the Thunder.  They might get one game in Houston but that's it.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

2 San Antonio Spurs vs 7 Los Angeles Lakers

After Kobe Bryant went down with only three games left in the year with a torn Achilles the playoff picture didn't look bright.  However, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol seem to be rejuvenated.  In their last two games, against San Antonio and Houston, Howard looked like back in his Magic days dominating at both ends of the court and Gasol posted a monster triple-double against the Rockets with 17 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists.  Also, with Steve Nash still out, Steve Blake scored 23 and 24 points in both of those games.  Bryant won't be back this year and it didn't take long for the new look Lakers to mesh and come up with big wins when they needed them most.  If LAL lost either of those games we would have seen the Utah Jazz in the playoffs instead.  But the Lakers reward for barely squeaking in is a chance to play the Spurs.  Speaking of rejuvenation, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are having their best seasons in the past three or four years.  Duncan (17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.7 bpg) looks like Timmy that played with David Robinson, and Parker (20.3 ppg, 7.6 apg) is carving up defenses more than ever, averaging 20 for the second time in his career.  But Manu Ginobili on the other hand is have his worst season (11.8 ppg) since his rookie year.  We've seen Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green step up in his stead as both of them are putting up double-digits for the first time.  The Spurs have more experience than any other team in the playoffs with Kobe now out.  It's interesting to see how Gasol has now become the playmaker which has opened the lane up for Howard to do what he does best, dunk.  It will be a battle down low with them and the Spurs Duncan and Tiago Splitter.  So to me it's going to come down to guard play and even though Blake has played well lately, including getting the better of the Frenchman in their recent matchup, Parker is too good and too experienced to let that happen over a 7-game series.  I do think this will be a great series even without Kobe, but the Spurs are too deep for the Lakers.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

3 Denver Nuggets vs 6 Golden State Warriors

I hope you can keep up if you're going to watch this series as these might be the two fastest teams in the NBA.  The Denver Nuggets come into the playoffs short-handed with their second leading scorer Danilo Gallinari out for the season with a torn ACL and Kenneth Faried, their leading rebounder, questionable with a sore ankle.  The Nuggets have done well all year without a superstar player but unless Faried can get back in the lineup soon they might have some problems.  One thing Denver has going for it is their great home court advantage.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA at 38-3.  With Gallinari out, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer have seen more minutes and both have played well.  Denver has so many weapons, nine players average between eight and 16 points, which is a main reason they led the league in scoring.  But for the Golden State Warriors, they rely heavily on their three main guns of Stephen Curry, David Lee, and Klay Thompson.  Curry averaged a career high 22.9 points while setting a NBA record 3-pointers made with 272, breaking Ray Allen's old mark by three.  Curry is the best shooter in the league and his backcourt mate, Thompson, also likes to let it fly from deep.  In only his second year, Thompson averaged 16.6 a game and hit 40% from downtown.  But their most consistent player was Lee who put up 18.5 points and 11.2 boards a game and gives the Warriors an inside presence to go with their great guard play.  Both these teams will run and gun as this might be the most entertaining series in the first round.  But while GS likes to shoot from beyond the arc, Denver scored more points in the paint than anybody.  It's because of that, I think the Nuggets will take this series easily.  The fact that they get easy buckets and the Warriors need to be hitting jumpers bodes well for the rich and creamy's.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

4 Los Angeles Clippers vs 5 Memphis Grizzlies 

In the first round of last years playoffs these two teams met and gave us an exciting 7-game series.  The Clippers were also the 4-seed a season ago and benefited from having the deciding game at home.  Both teams have new editions, but the Clippers have gotten more production out of theirs.  LAC added Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, and Lamar Odom in the off-season and all have contributed in their own right.  But, none more than Crawford.  His last four years he's provided instant offense from the bench and has given the Clips 16.5 a game in his first season with the team.  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have seen their points go down from last year but they are getting help from all over as they are scoring more as a team.  DeAndre Jordan has provided an offensive lift to lob city and has the poster of the year, sorry Brandon Knight.  For the Memphis Grizzlies, they traded away their leading scorer, Rudy Gay, midway through the year.  Along with Gay, the other main guy sent away was Marreese Speights and in return they received Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis to fill those voids.  Prince stepped into the starting lineup and added more defense to an already great defensive team.  The Grizzlies score the least out of any West playoff team with 93.4, but give up the fewest points in the NBA at 89.3.  With getting rid of their leading scorer, the offense falls on the shoulders of Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol.  Randolph and Gasol are a load inside for anybody.  In a league that is starting to play smaller, the Grizzlies are one of the few teams that still like to play big.  Conley has improved and raised his production, putting up 14.6 points, which is a career high.  This series going to come down to who controls the tempo of the game.  Paul likes to get the Clippers in transition and Conley wants to slow things down to take advantage to Memphis' bigs.  But LAC is a team that can handle the Grizz down low.  Jordan and Griffin have the size to matchup with Randolph and Gasol.  But can Conley and Tony Allen slow down Paul and Crawford?  That's the biggest question and also to me the Clippers are just too deep.  They have too many scoring threats and even though Memphis is one of the best defensive teams, the Clippers will still find ways to put points on the board.

Prediction: Clippers in 7

The NBA Center Is A Dying Breed

Today is the last day of the NBA regular season and we are about to see history.  For the first time ever in the NBA we will not have a player average 20 points and 10 rebounds in a single season.  Yes, you heard that correctly.  To me this is a clear indication that the NBA center is becoming extinct.  A position that once dominated games is now almost non existent.

It first came to my attention last week when the New York Knicks were trying to extend their 13 game winning streak against the Chicago Bulls.  It was a great game as the Bulls pulled it out in overtime 118-111.  But, it was obvious right from the opening tip when the Knicks 6'8 small forward Chris Copeland was jumping against the Bulls 6'7 small forward Jimmy Butler.  But when you start smaller players at the center and power forward spots you have no choice.  Then, later in the game we saw Carmelo Anthony and Butler playing the 5-spot on the floor.  I understand that the Knicks were playing with a lot of injuries on their front line (Tyson Chandler, Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin) but this is a trend we are starting to see across the NBA.  Most teams start one "big man" and four guards or swingmen that can handle the ball.  The Knicks have been doing it all year with Anthony and the Miami Heat as well with LeBron James starting at the power forward spot.  Long gone are the days of starting a point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center.  The NBA has evolved into starting lineups that consist of the best five players on the team regardless of position.  But it's not entirely the league's fault that center's are disappearing.

Back in the 90s the league was filled with dominate players at the center position.  Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, and Alonzo Mourning all roamed the paint and were among the best players in the league.  Before them it was all-time greats Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Moses Malone.  Every one of those players averaged 20 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks multiple times in their career and liked to play with their back to the basket.  All of these players were a threat on the offensive and defensive side of the ball and if your team didn't have a center to counter them, you had no chance.  Once Shaq's decline started in the mid-90s the position slowly started going with him.  You still saw guys like Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett that averaged 20, 10 and two, but they were the start of the hybrid post player, not a true center.  Most recently Dwight Howard was starting to become a 20 and 10 staple, doing it four out of five years, but his stint with the Lakers this year has seen a decline in both categories.

This year, nine players are putting up 20 points a game but the closest to 10 boards is LaMarcus Aldridge with 8.9 a game.  Only eight players are grabbing 10 rebounds a game and the highest scorer is David Lee with 18.4 ppg.  Last year Howard, Kevin Love and Blake Griffin were all in the 20 and 10 club but have had their numbers drop for various reasons.  Howard's problem is being on a team with Kobe Bryant.  Love has been battling a broken hand all year and hasn't played since January 3.  Griffin has had a solid year (18 and 8) but has given up minutes and stats to a very deep Clippers team.  The other statistic all these players are missing, except Howard, are the blocks.  We just don't see players have the skill-set to perform extremely well on both ends of the court.

If you take a look at who the best true center's in the league are, it's a list of good but not great players.  Howard, Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Brook Lopez, Tyson Chandler and Al Horford all suffice in the role but again, other than Howard it's a big stretch for any of those players to reach 20 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks.  We'll have to see what guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Roy Hibbert, Andrew Bynum (if he can ever stay healthy) and Andre Drummond can do as they grow through the years.

But what's the reason why the center position is becoming a lost art?  In my opinion there's three main culprits and some are more fixable than others.

1. Players aren't developing their skills enough in college.  For a guy 6'10 or taller, he really doesn't know the limitations of his athleticism and body because he's still growing into his frame in his college years.  But players always want to make the early jump to the NBA without taking the time to refine their skills in school.  This in turn leads to players never panning out they way they should.
2. The European influence on the NBA is taking players away from the post.  Every big man that comes over from Europe wants to play on the outside and shoot jump shots instead of banging down low and dunking on people.  We are also starting to see that more often with players from the states as well.  For as great of scorers Dirk Nowitzki and Aldridge are, neither has ever averaged 20 and 10 in their career.
3. Injuries have slowed down some of the premier centers in the league.  Greg Oden, Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Love, and Andrew Bogut have all suffered from the injury bug.  Bynum, Love and Bogut are still in the NBA but have had injury plagued season's the last two years.  Bynum missed the entire 2012-12 season while Love only played 18 games and Bogut managed 33.

Will we ever see the re-emergence of the NBA center?  It's tough to say.  This year we won't see anybody with 20 and 10, and we might not see a player do it with more than two blocks for a very long time.  The days of O'Neal, Robinson, Olajuwon, and Kareem dominating the paint seem like a distant memory.  The NBA is evolving to a guard oriented game and with that, the center is slowly dying off.