The NBA is back so let's take a quick look around the Eastern Conference.
There's a lot of new faces in new places that will definitely mix things
up from a year ago. Derrick Rose is back after taking a year off to
recover from ACL surgery, the Brooklyn Nets brought in two future hall of famers in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, while the Detroit Pistons have added Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings.
However, the East is basically a four team race. The one thing we know is that everybody will again be chasing the
Miami Heat.
Eastern Conference Contenders
Miami
Heat - Obviously we have to start with the Heat. Coming off of two
straight NBA Championships and LeBron James' two consecutive NBA MVP's,
the road to the title goes through Miami. A big question is are they
still hungry enough to get their third straight ring? At the end of
last season Dwyane Wade was struggling with injuries and another year on
his rusty knees might slow him down even more. Chris Bosh has been the
third wheel of the "Big Three" but if he's able to take some of the
load off Wade this team could be just as strong as ever. The Heat lost
playoff hero Mike Miller but added former #2 overall pick Michael
Beasley and former #1 overall pick Greg Oden. Both are still young (24
and 25 respectively) but who knows how much they have left to offer.
Beasley averaged a career worst 10.1 points a season ago on a bad
Phoenix team and in my opinion has too many personal issues to deal with
before he can become a solid contributor again. Oden on the other hand
was hit with the curse of the Portland big man. Just like Sam Bowie
and Bill Walton, Oden suffered a serious leg injury that made him miss
the last three seasons. Oden's potential all depends on his health. If
he's healthy he will be a great asset to this team, especially if he can move
Bosh to his more natural position of power forward.
Indiana
Pacers - The Pacers were one game away from shocking the world and
reaching the NBA Finals a year ago. Indiana took the Heat to a game
seven as Paul George had a national coming out party as he went
head-to-head with LBJ and held his own for most of the series. That
performance helped George win the most improved award and put the
Indiana Pacers as team that could take down Miami. Along with George,
Roy Hibbert also showed the world what he can do in the playoffs.
Hibbert seemed to plateau for three years hovering around 12 points and
eight rebounds, but in the playoffs he ratcheted up his intensity and
aggressiveness. The 7'2 center averaged 17 and 10 in the postseason
including leading the Pacers in scoring and rebounding against the Heat
with 22 points and 10 boards. If Hibbert brings that same aggression
for an entire season he could challenge Dwight Howard for best center in
the league. One addition the Pacers made was a big one when they
brought in Luis Scola. This is a guy that shares the same tough
mentality the Pacers do and can give them quality minutes off the bench
to spell Hibbert and David West.
Chicago
Bulls - The last time Derrick Rose played a regular season he led the
Bulls to the best record in the NBA for the second year in a row. He
took off last year to fully recover from his ACL tear in the 2012
playoffs and Chicago finished fifth in the East. A lot of NBA fans,
especially ones in Chicago, questioned why Rose took so long to return
to action. Especially after seeing Adrian Peterson suffer the same
injury and become the NFL MVP. But, it might have been the best thing
Rose could have done. We have to remember he's still on 25 and if he
could have played last year he would have had a higher risk of
re-injuring himself. Now that he's had more than a year to fully
recover, the Bulls are primed to take back that top spot in the NBA.
Aside from Rose, the difference maker will be third-year man Jimmy
Butler. In the latter half of last year he became a legit scorer and
defender for the Bulls. We know what they'll get out of Joakim Noah,
Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng, but if Butler continues to improve that
will give Chicago one of the best starting lineups in the league. The
spark plug for the Bull is Noah, however, he is struggling with a groin
injury right now after being less than 100% for last year's playoffs
with plantar fasciitis. With this team back at full strength they could
be the ones to dethrone the defending champs.
Brooklyn Nets - In the
2012 offseason Brooklyn made a move to acquire Joe Johnson. This
offseason they made an even bigger one getting Paul Pierce, Kevin
Garnett, and Jason Terry from the Boston Celtics. I never thought I'd
ever see Pierce play for another team after giving 15 years to Boston
but they sent him away. Another key player added was Andrei Kirilenko.
He's never going to wow you on the court but he can fill a stat sheet
and play great defense. Add these four guys to a team with Deron
Williams, Brook Lopez and the previously mentioned Johnson and you have a
roster with 36 all-star and 16 all-NBA selections combined. That's a
pretty decent resume. The problem the Nets will run into is the same
problem that has plagued teams loaded with talent. There's only one
ball and one if not two of these stars will need to take one a smaller
role than they are used to. Some guys can't handle that and become a
detriment to their team. It might take a month or two for this team to
get a feel for how each other plays but if they start clicking Brooklyn
will be a team to watch out for come playoff time.
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
1. Miami Heat
2. Indiana Pacers
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Brooklyn Nets
5. New York Knicks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Washington Wizards
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
2013-14 NBA Awards Predictions
Here's a quick look at my predictions for the 2013-14 NBA Awards
Rookie Of The Year - Victor Oladipo
Oladipo was the second overall pick in this years draft and has the one trait that translates the easiest from college to pro ball...defense. Unless you were a prolific scorer in college it usually takes a year or two to be able to put up numbers in the NBA, but defense is all about effort. And every coach will always leave a guy on the court if he plays good D. Also, remember this is a guy that shot 60% from the field and 44% from three-point range his last year at Indiana so he has the ability to score. With him being on a bad Orlando Magic team he will find a spot in the starting lineup early and continue to produce throughout the season.
Second Place: Michael Carter-Williams
Most Improved - Kawhi Leonard
We knew Leonard was a key part of the San Antonio Spurs but it wasn't until the playoffs, particularly the NBA Finals, when we saw how important he actually is to this team. In the Finals, he put up 14 points and 11 boards all while trying to contain LeBron James. With the Spurs "Big Three" getting older, especially Manu Ginobili, Leonard will be asked to continue to produce more often. He is the obvious predecessor to take over the reins of a well-rounded Spurs team. Just like Paul George transformed into a superstar a year ago for the Pacers, we will see the same from Kawhi this year.
Second Place: Andre Drummond
Sixth Man - Jamal Crawford
Is there a better pure scorer that comes off the bench than Jamal Crawford? No. It's amazing to watch this guy handle the ball and tear apart second units. He's 33 years old and in his 14th season but can still put up points with the best of them. He doesn't give you much on the defensive end and that has probably kept him from winning more sixth man awards, but this year he will add to his 2010 honors.
Second Place: J.R. Smith
Coach Of The Year - Kevin McHale
If Kevin McHale is able to control the emotions of Dwight Howard this team has the ability to challenge for the Western Conference title. Houston has all the tools in their starting lineup to produce and it's all up to the coach to harness those efforts. McHale had the Rockets scoring 106 points per game a season ago, good for second in the NBA. With the presence of Howard they have the potential to be a good defensive team as well.
Second Place: Mark Jackson
Defensive Player Of The Year - Roy Hibbert
One of the few true center's in the NBA showed his growth in the 2012-13 playoffs and will turn into a dominant force for the 2013-14 campaign. His blocks have gone up every year as pro and he finished with 2.6 last season. I expect his numbers to rise in all aspects of his game and if he gets to 12 boards and three blocks per game he'll be a lock for this award.
Second Place: Dwight Howard
Most Valuable Player - LeBron James
It's hard to pick anybody else. LeBron James has won the last two MVP awards because his game is still improving. In three years with the Heat his shooting percentages, rebounds and assists have increased while his turnovers have decreased. Kevin Durant is right on his heels after posting the elusive 50-40-90 (FG%, 3P%, FT%) season but still has a little work to do to surpass James. LBJ tries to improve a different aspect of his game each offseason and it will be interesting to see what he has in store for us in the 2013-14 season.
Second Place: Kevin Durant
Rookie Of The Year - Victor Oladipo
Oladipo was the second overall pick in this years draft and has the one trait that translates the easiest from college to pro ball...defense. Unless you were a prolific scorer in college it usually takes a year or two to be able to put up numbers in the NBA, but defense is all about effort. And every coach will always leave a guy on the court if he plays good D. Also, remember this is a guy that shot 60% from the field and 44% from three-point range his last year at Indiana so he has the ability to score. With him being on a bad Orlando Magic team he will find a spot in the starting lineup early and continue to produce throughout the season.
Second Place: Michael Carter-Williams
Most Improved - Kawhi Leonard
We knew Leonard was a key part of the San Antonio Spurs but it wasn't until the playoffs, particularly the NBA Finals, when we saw how important he actually is to this team. In the Finals, he put up 14 points and 11 boards all while trying to contain LeBron James. With the Spurs "Big Three" getting older, especially Manu Ginobili, Leonard will be asked to continue to produce more often. He is the obvious predecessor to take over the reins of a well-rounded Spurs team. Just like Paul George transformed into a superstar a year ago for the Pacers, we will see the same from Kawhi this year.
Second Place: Andre Drummond
Sixth Man - Jamal Crawford
Is there a better pure scorer that comes off the bench than Jamal Crawford? No. It's amazing to watch this guy handle the ball and tear apart second units. He's 33 years old and in his 14th season but can still put up points with the best of them. He doesn't give you much on the defensive end and that has probably kept him from winning more sixth man awards, but this year he will add to his 2010 honors.
Second Place: J.R. Smith
Coach Of The Year - Kevin McHale
If Kevin McHale is able to control the emotions of Dwight Howard this team has the ability to challenge for the Western Conference title. Houston has all the tools in their starting lineup to produce and it's all up to the coach to harness those efforts. McHale had the Rockets scoring 106 points per game a season ago, good for second in the NBA. With the presence of Howard they have the potential to be a good defensive team as well.
Second Place: Mark Jackson
Defensive Player Of The Year - Roy Hibbert
One of the few true center's in the NBA showed his growth in the 2012-13 playoffs and will turn into a dominant force for the 2013-14 campaign. His blocks have gone up every year as pro and he finished with 2.6 last season. I expect his numbers to rise in all aspects of his game and if he gets to 12 boards and three blocks per game he'll be a lock for this award.
Second Place: Dwight Howard
Most Valuable Player - LeBron James
It's hard to pick anybody else. LeBron James has won the last two MVP awards because his game is still improving. In three years with the Heat his shooting percentages, rebounds and assists have increased while his turnovers have decreased. Kevin Durant is right on his heels after posting the elusive 50-40-90 (FG%, 3P%, FT%) season but still has a little work to do to surpass James. LBJ tries to improve a different aspect of his game each offseason and it will be interesting to see what he has in store for us in the 2013-14 season.
Second Place: Kevin Durant
Thursday, October 24, 2013
NFL Week 8 Pick'em
Well, it looks like we're going the wrong way. Even the SuperContest numbers took a big hit going 1-4. All I can say is I'm glad I'm not using real money. The Bears, Lions and Chiefs all were games that didn't go our way at the end and could have made our final numbers look a little different if they did. Not only did our picks go down last week, but so did many key players (Doug Martin and Reggie Wayne to name a few). Nonetheless, on to Week 8! A lot of big numbers this week as 10 of the 13 games are hovering around a touchdown or more. We have another game being played in London, this time it's San Francisco and Jacksonville. The NFL really gave them some gems to watch this year. And other than the Cowboys-Lions, there isn't one game I will make a point to watch this weekend. But, we still have to watch our fantasy players and make some picks. So, here we go.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS
No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay. I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though. But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance. He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way. Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson. Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine. Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help. In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.
RAIDERS +3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games. The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's. These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired. I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.
Panthers -6 over BUCS
Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game. The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game. Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm. The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles. Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely. Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield. Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's. But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown. Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.
Seahawks -11 over RAMS
Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team. Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL. They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro. The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers. Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.
PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins
I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in. But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook. I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough. But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards. Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers. Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year. Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of. Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.
Other NFL in 10 or less
49ers -16.5 over Jaguars Not taking the Jags again until they cover.
LIONS -3 over Cowboys No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.
Giants +6 over EAGLES First win inspires Giants to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.
Bills +12 over SAINTS Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.
BRONCOS -13 over Redskins Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.
Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 18-16-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-9
Season Total: 54-49-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Falcons +2.5 over CARDINALS
No Julio Jones and no Roddy White apparently was no problem for Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week against Tampa Bay. I think the Bucs horrible defense had something to do with it though. But, without two of the best receivers in the league, Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas had a breakout performance. He finished with 149 yards, one TD and caught all seven of the passes thrown his way. Now he gets to face off against emerging shut down corner Patrick Peterson. Arizona has a decent defense but Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine. Coming into the season I thought he would have this offense back to the Kurt Warner days but he's looked terrible and Larry Fitzgerald fighting injuries doesn't help. In the end, the Falcons put up points and Arizona doesn't score enough.
RAIDERS +3 over Steelers
Pittsburgh has gotten two straight wins after losing its first four games of the year, the last coming against rival Baltimore. Ben Roethlisberger has been average throwing seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but their defense is starting to come around giving up only 22 points in their last two games. The Oakland Raiders will be coming off their bye week and Terrell Pryor has been very comfortable at home as the Raiders have won the two games he's started in the Black Hole. Wide receiver Denarius Moore has also been a pleasant surprise with 399 yards and four TD's. These teams played last season in Oakland, a game they won 34-31 on the leg of Sebastian Janikowski as time expired. I see this game being low scoring this time around but Oakland keeping it close and possibly even winning again.
Panthers -6 over BUCS
Cam Newton has this offense on fire right now scoring 65 points in the last two games and has completed 35 of 43 passes in those game. The defense has played all year as well, giving up only 13.8 points per game. Carolina was one of those bang or bust teams coming into the year and after a slow start might have found their rhythm. The Bucs on the other had keep adding to their troubles. Last week their standout running back Doug Martin tore his labrum and will be out indefinitely. Now they must turn to rookie RB Mike James and will join fellow rookie QB Mike Glennon in the backfield. Glennon has developed good chemistry with veteran WR Vincent Jackson their last two games connecting for 252 yards and 4 TD's. But they've still lost those games by more than a touchdown. Carolina is playing great on both sides of the ball and should cover this road Thursday night game.
Seahawks -11 over RAMS
Seattle continues to show they are one of the best teams in the league with one of the top defenses that should feast on a depleted St. Louis Rams team. Franchise quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the season last week for the Rams with a torn ACL. They will now give the ball to Kellen Clemens who hasn't started a game since 2011. This is a horrible spot to put in Clemens and will turn out very badly for the eight year pro. The Seahawks have forced a NFC leading 11 interceptions and will be ball hawking all game especially with the Rams lack of running game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch will also most likely be in beastmode as St. Louis is one of the league's worst run stoppers. Two scores is a lot on the road but the Rams have nothing good to offer.
PATRIOTS -7 over Dolphins
I will honestly say it was tough for me to find another game I was overly confident in. But Tom Brady at home is hard to overlook. I don't take too much out of their 30-27 OT loss to the Jets last week because the Jets always play them tough. But one thing I do take into consideration is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished his first game back with eight receptions and 114 yards. Brady only has one touchdown in his last three games but the Dolphins pass defense nothing special and could be what he needs to put up big numbers. Miami has been on a downward spiral losing three straight after winning three straight to begin the year. Tannehill has five INT's in those losses and they still have no running game to speak of. Take New England at home as Brady will connect with Gronk for two touchdowns.
Other NFL in 10 or less
49ers -16.5 over Jaguars Not taking the Jags again until they cover.
LIONS -3 over Cowboys No Murray will hurt the Cowboys.
Giants +6 over EAGLES First win inspires Giants to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Browns Browns will be lucky to score 10 points.
Bills +12 over SAINTS Graham's status in question, Bill's slow game down.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets Jets come down after emotional win against Pats.
BRONCOS -13 over Redskins Skins travel west for a beating, Peyton's angry.
Packers -9.5 over VIKINGS Vikings in complete disarray, Rodgers rolling.
SuperContest
Last Week: 1-4
Season Total: 18-16-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-9
Season Total: 54-49-3
Thursday, October 17, 2013
NFL Week 7 Pick'em
We tried to get back on track but we couldn't as we had our second losing week in a row. Minnesota was torched at home as the whole team seemed to be affected by the tragic loss of Adrian Peterson's son and the Texans were also blown out at home with no excuse by the Rams 38-13. On a good note, the Jaguars finally got their first cover against Denver in the biggest spread in history. This week all eyes are on Peyton Manning making his return to Indianapolis to face the Colts. Colts owner Jim Irsay has already stirred the pot saying Peyton didn't win enough rings for the franchise. Manning had no comment for a rebuttal and I assume he will let his play do the talking. Let's get on with it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -6 over Texans
I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week. Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second. They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub. The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game. The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.
Bears PK over REDSKINS
Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious. He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins. For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks. The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.
LIONS -2.5 over Bengals
Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards. That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria. The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1. The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays. They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012. DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4). Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.
GIANTS -3 over Vikings
The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week. Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column. I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong. The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now. As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son. They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game. The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.
JAGUARS +8 over Chargers
Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos. This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town. Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games. Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD. San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce. The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game. Take the home-dog in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.
Patriots -4 over JETS Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.
Bills +8 over DOLPHINS Miami won't score enough to cover 8.
EAGLES -3 over Cowboys Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.
PANTHERS -6 over Rams Cam made me a believer last week.
FALCONS -7 over Bucs Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.
49ers -4 over TITANS SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.
PACKERS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.
Ravens +2 over STEELERS Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.
Broncos -6.5 over COLTS Peyton purposely runs up the score.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 17-12-1
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 48-40-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
CHIEFS -6 over Texans
I went against Kansas City last week and was burned so I'm back on the bandwagon this week. Oakland kept it close for a half but the Chiefs D shut them down in the second. They will have a good chance of adding to their NFL best 18 takeaways against a Houston team that will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum in place of the ineffective Matt Schaub. The Texans actually have the best defense in terms of yards, giving up only 252.8 a game. The problem is that the offense has given up five straight games with a pick six and I see the Chiefs continuing that streak with a rookie going into hostile territory in KC.
Bears PK over REDSKINS
Robert Griffin III has had a hard time getting his rhythm back after offseason surgery and it's obvious. He has seven turnovers in five games and I'm wondering how long before Redskins fans start asking for Kirk Cousins. For the Bears, Cutler has made a lot of mistakes as well (6 INT's) but has looked good his last two games throwing for over 600 yards, two TD's and zero picks. The Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league and Chicago should put enough points on the board for their defense to keep the lead.
LIONS -2.5 over Bengals
Last week the Detroit Lions were able to score 31 points on a very good Browns defense with Calvin Johnson only having three catches for 25 yards. That is definitely a good sign for the Lions as others had a huge impact in the passing game, like Kris Durham and Joseph Fauria. The Bengals have a top receiver of their own in A.J. Green who had 103 yards and one TD against Buffalo, his first over 100 since week 1. The biggest difference for the Lions from last year is their defense is back to making plays. They already have 13 takeaways in six games whereas they only totaled 17 in 2012. DeAndre Levy has been the standout leading the team in tackles (49) and interceptions (4). Look for Detroit to play well at home and cover the small line.
GIANTS -3 over Vikings
The Giants finally got their first cover last week and will look to get their first win this week. Eli Manning has been one of the worst quarterbacks all year but the Minnesota Vikings might be the remedy this team needs to get into the win column. I had this same thought when the Eagles came into New York and was wrong. The difference this time is that the Vikings offense is anything but coherent right now. As I stated earlier, Adrian Peterson is still not right after the loss of his son. They will also be starting newly acquired QB Josh Freeman after only being with the team for his second game. The Vikings have too much going on internally right now and the Giants should get their first win.
JAGUARS +8 over Chargers
Another team that got its first cover a week ago was Jacksonville, covering 27.5 against the Broncos. This week they have one of their few chances to get a win as the Chargers come to town. Chad Henne has found a nice rhythm with Justin Blackmon as he has 326 receiving yards in two games. Maurice Jones-Drew still does not look like himself but he did have his best game last week with 71 yards and a TD. San Diego has been a real surprise so far going 4-1-1 ATS so far and Philip Rivers has continued to produce. The thing that will hold the Chargers back this week though is being on a short week after playing Monday night and traveling to the east coast for an early game. Take the home-dog in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
CARDINALS +6 over Seahawks Cardinals good ATS and at home in close defensive battle.
Patriots -4 over JETS Brady and Co. continue riding high after big win.
Bills +8 over DOLPHINS Miami won't score enough to cover 8.
EAGLES -3 over Cowboys Foles has Philly offense on point, Cowboys banged up.
PANTHERS -6 over Rams Cam made me a believer last week.
FALCONS -7 over Bucs Don't like either team but I trust Tampa Bay less.
49ers -4 over TITANS SF is rolling on both sides of the ball.
PACKERS -10 over Browns Browns can't keep pace with Weedon at QB.
Ravens +2 over STEELERS Still not sold on the Steelers, even after first win.
Broncos -6.5 over COLTS Peyton purposely runs up the score.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 17-12-1
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 48-40-3
Friday, October 11, 2013
NFL Week 6 Pick'em
After our best week, we follow that up with our worst. But, our SuperContest picks were great going 4-1. There were some big story lines as well as Peyton Manning and Tony Romo had a shootout for the ages, the Jets had a two-minute comeback, while Julio Jones is lost for the year, and two unbeaten teams went down. This week everybody is talking about the largest spread in NFL history. The Denver Broncos opened as a 28-point favorite at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I was shocked in Week 3 when the Seahawks were almost a 20-point favorite against the Jags, but this is crazy. College football has bigger numbers than this all the time (every Oregon game), but we just don't see spreads like this in the NFL. Other than that there aren't too many good games outside of New Orleans-New England and Washington-Dallas. So, let's improve on last week's poor performance.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Eagles -1.5 over BUCS
Tampa Bay has lost three of its four games by a field goal or less and are coming off a bye. All of this would matter for any other team that wasn't in shambles. Ever since this whole Josh Freeman thing started the Bucs have not been right. Freeman is now in Minnesota so that means rookie Mike Glennon must take over. He looked less than good in his first start against Arizona and I expect more of the same this week. Yes, Mike Vick is out for Philly, but his backup, Nick Foles, is more than capable of leading this high powered offense. He came in last week against the Giants and threw for 197 yards and two TD's in little over half the game. Tampa Bay's offense will be lucky to score more than 14 points and LeSean McCoy will score twice himself.
VIKINGS -2.5 over Panthers
A team that will get some help coming off the bye, and possibly from new addition Josh Freeman, are the Minnesota Vikings. Last time we saw them they were getting their first win over the Steelers in London 34-27. Matt Cassel got the start for an injured Christian Ponder and played well (248 yards, 2 TDs). Carolina will be in its second straight road game after falling to the Cardinals 22-6 last week. Cam Newton has been a big disappointment again this year. Not only is his arm not producing but he can't get anything going on the ground either. Freeman won't figure much in this game but will be in a competition for the starting job once he gets the playbook down. Until then, Cassel will get the job done against the Panthers.
Raiders +8.5 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is a team I've been riding all year and they are 4-1 ATS, but this Oakland team has been really competitive with Terrelle Pryor at the helm. He's taken a hold of the starting job and he also leads the Raiders in rushing. Yes, the Chiefs are one of the top five teams in the league with arguably the best defense. But, Oakland doesn't give up much on the ground and that's where the Chiefs bread and butter is with Jamaal Charles. This game will go by fast with how much running will be by both teams and I think Oakland can score 17 to keep it close.
PATRIOTS -2.5 over Saints
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will go at it in the best game of the week. Drew Brees has outperformed Tom Brady so far this year and in head-to-head matchups as well, going 3-0 against the Pats QB. The Saints have been close to unstoppable on offense and Jimmy Graham is not only the best tight end in the league but also turning into the best overall receiver. On the other side, New England has been hampered by injures to their receiving corps all year. Players are slowly starting to comeback as Danny Amendola returned last week and Rob Gronkowski will likely play against the Saints. It's not often the betting public is not on the Patriots at home but this is one of those scenarios. And that's why I think they will win. The moment you count this team out is the moment the prove they are still a team to reckon with.
SEAHAWKS -13.5 over Titans
Tennessee was been a pleasant surprise to start the year 3-1 with Jake Locker at QB. Then he went down with an injury and in stepped Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick started his first game for the Titans last week and looked rusty. Seattle has struggled on the road but are a completely different beast at home. This defense will be all over Fitzpatrick forcing bad throws and turnovers. The Titans D is much improved but I just don't see their offense doing enough to keep it close in this one.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Giants +7.5 over BEARS Eli has to cover sooner or later...right?
RAVENS +2.5 over Packers Rut row Ray Rice, he's back as the focal point.
BROWNS +3 over Lions Megatron is questionable and Browns defense is tough.
TEXANS -7.5 over Rams Schaub comes through with his job on the line.
JETS -1.5 over Steelers Jets coming home after emotional comeback in ATL.
BILLS +7 over Bengals Bills rushing attack keeps them in it.
Jaguars +27.5 over BRONCOS Gotta take the points, even against Peyton.
49ERS -10.5 over Cardinals SF defense getting back to form, Palmer too erratic.
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS Redskins coming off the bye in rivalry game.
Colts -2 over CHARGERS Indy on a roll and Chargers have no defense.
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 15-9-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-8
Season Total: 41-32-3
Thursday, October 3, 2013
NFL Week 5 Pick'em
The first quarter of the season is over and we finished on our best week. We were 11-3-1 on the day and 3-1-1 in the SuperContest. The Seahawks and Cardinals had huge 4th quarter comebacks to avoid losses against Houston and Tampa Bay, but other than that most of our wins went surprisingly smooth. As for the home-dogs I mentioned last week, they went 4-3 and continued their winning ways. This week we have a lot of big name matchups which will make for some tough selections but hopefully we'll have another good week.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -3.5 over Bills
My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season. It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami. It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota. Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won. This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover. The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run. Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.
Chiefs -3 over TITANS
The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype. Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS). But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle. KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18. Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot. It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.
CARDINALS +2 over Panthers
Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that. Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm. And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg). Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be. But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road. That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.
Saints PK over BEARS
In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears. New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins. This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards. But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games. Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game. However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler. With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired. Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler. Take the better QB in this PICK game.
GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles
This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question. The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively. New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7. But yes, I'm still picking them. The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5. All they need is some home cooking to get their first win. And what better way to do it than against a rival. Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game. We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.
Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.
Patriots +2 over BENGALS Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
back.
COLTS +3 over Seahawks Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.
Lions +7 over PACKERS Big number for high scoring rivals.
RAIDERS +4 over Chargers Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.
Broncos -7 over COWBOYS Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
Julius Thomas.
Texans +6.5 over 49ERS Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.
FALCONS -10 over Jets Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-1-1
Season Total: 11-8-1
Overall
Last Week: 11-3-1
Season Total: 35-24-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -3.5 over Bills
My confidence with the Cleveland Browns has been a roller coaster so far this season. It was high to begin the year, then they lost to Miami. It was really low when they traded away Trent Richardson and started Brian Hoyer, then they beat Minnesota. Now I'm high on them again as I had them covering against a good Bengals team, and they won. This week they face Buffalo on Thursday night and I expect another cover. The Bills strength is running the ball and the Browns strength is stopping the run. Cleveland will put up enough points with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon so lay the 3.5.
Chiefs -3 over TITANS
The Chiefs were a popular sleeper pick before the season and are living up to the hype. Tennessee, however, is one of the biggest surprises of the NFL starting 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS). But, starting QB Jake Locker is now out 4-6 weeks with a sprained hip. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a serviceable backup after starting every game the last two years in Buffalo but this might be a situation he's not ready to handle. KC leads the league in defensive points against at 10.3 per game and in sacks with 18. Fitzpatrick will be thrown into the fire and probably hand it off to Chris Johnson a lot. It won't matter though because Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs defense will be too much for an undermanned Titans team.
CARDINALS +2 over Panthers
Carolina travels across the country after a bye week and a 38-0 shellacking of the Giants before that. Those are good enough reasons to pick any team but the problem is I don't believe and Cam Newton's arm. And to beat the Cardinals you gotta do it through the air because Arizona has the second best run defense in the NFL (75 ypg). Arizona's offense has not been as good as I expected it might be. But, it will be good for them to be back home after playing three of their first four on the road. That lone home game resulted in a 25-21 win over a really good Detroit Lions team. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS, take the home-dog.
Saints PK over BEARS
In one of the better matchups this weekend, the 4-0 Saints visit the 3-1 Bears. New Orleans, and Drew Brees, is coming off a great Monday night performance against the Dolphins. This offense is again one of the best in the league as Brees ranks behind only Peyton Manning in passing yards. But it's been their defense that has improved from a year ago, forcing six turnovers in the last two games. Chicago at home is tough to pick against, especially with Matt Forte on pace to have his best season averaging 120 total yards per game. However, whether the Bears win or lose always falls on the arm of their QB Jay Cutler. With how he played last week against the Lions (3 INTs and 57% completions) there was a lot to be desired. Brees won't make the same mistakes as Cutler. Take the better QB in this PICK game.
GIANTS -2.5 over Eagles
This will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, no question. The Giants and Eagles give up the most points in the NFL, 36.5 ppg and 34.5 ppg respectively. New York has been embarrassed it's last two games losing by a combined 69-7. But yes, I'm still picking them. The reason is that Eli and this Giants team are too good to start 0-5. All they need is some home cooking to get their first win. And what better way to do it than against a rival. Philly head coach Chip Kelly turned heads after winning week 1 against Washington and his offense looked almost unstoppable. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to stop anybody else as they are giving up a league worst 447 yards per game. We'll see a lot of Manning to Cruz and this will be the game David Wilson breaks out.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS -3 over Ravens Staying away from Baltimore until Rice gets going.
Jaguars +11.5 over RAMS Don't trust the Rams enough, Jags get first cover.
Patriots +2 over BENGALS Brady gaining more trust with receivers and getting Amendola
back.
COLTS +3 over Seahawks Seattle played with fire last week, not so lucky again.
Lions +7 over PACKERS Big number for high scoring rivals.
RAIDERS +4 over Chargers Pryor starting again, keeps it close in Black Hole.
Broncos -7 over COWBOYS Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker,
Julius Thomas.
Texans +6.5 over 49ERS Houston only plays close games, gets first cover as well.
FALCONS -10 over Jets Jets too banged up to keep pace on the scoreboard.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-1-1
Season Total: 11-8-1
Overall
Last Week: 11-3-1
Season Total: 35-24-3
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