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Saturday, April 20, 2013

NBA Western Conference First Round Predictions

The West is filled with story lines and great matchups.  Can James Harden get revenge on his old team?  Can the elder Spurs handle the Kobe-less Lakers?  Can the short handed Nuggets out run the young Warriors?  Will the Clippers and Grizzlies give us another 7-game thriller?  If you like watching teams put points on the board these are the games for you as seven of the top eight scoring teams are in the West.

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs 8 Houston Rockets

The Thunder and Rockets pulled off the biggest trade of the year before the season even started when OKC shipped James Harden and others to Houston in exchange for Kevin Martin and draft picks.  When the trade went down back in November we discussed it here and thought that it worked out great for both sides and it turns out, it did.  And wouldn't you know, they get matched up in the first round of the playoffs.  With the move to Houston, Harden put up career bests across the board including 25.9 points, good for 5th in the league.  In their first meeting Harden had a tough time in his return to OKC going 3-16 with 17 points.  But in the Rockets lone win against the Thunder, Harden went off for 46 on 14-19 shooting with seven 3s.  Also in that game Kevin Durant recorded his 2nd triple-double of the year in the 122-119 loss.  With the departure of Harden, Serge Ibaka hit a career high with 13.2 points and 7.7 rebounds.  As for Martin, he saw his points drop to 14 a game but 3-point percentage was his best at 42%.  Both of these teams can score as they were second and third in the league in points.  But OKC plays better defense, giving up six fewer points a game.  The Thunder were the best in point differential at +9.2 and have the players to slow down the Rockets.  Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins, and Ibaka can all play lockdown defense and Westbrook and Durant have improved from a year ago.  The Rockets are just in a bad matchup with a team that is similar but better.  Houston can score but they don't have the weapons to match the Thunder.  They might get one game in Houston but that's it.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

2 San Antonio Spurs vs 7 Los Angeles Lakers

After Kobe Bryant went down with only three games left in the year with a torn Achilles the playoff picture didn't look bright.  However, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol seem to be rejuvenated.  In their last two games, against San Antonio and Houston, Howard looked like back in his Magic days dominating at both ends of the court and Gasol posted a monster triple-double against the Rockets with 17 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists.  Also, with Steve Nash still out, Steve Blake scored 23 and 24 points in both of those games.  Bryant won't be back this year and it didn't take long for the new look Lakers to mesh and come up with big wins when they needed them most.  If LAL lost either of those games we would have seen the Utah Jazz in the playoffs instead.  But the Lakers reward for barely squeaking in is a chance to play the Spurs.  Speaking of rejuvenation, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are having their best seasons in the past three or four years.  Duncan (17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.7 bpg) looks like Timmy that played with David Robinson, and Parker (20.3 ppg, 7.6 apg) is carving up defenses more than ever, averaging 20 for the second time in his career.  But Manu Ginobili on the other hand is have his worst season (11.8 ppg) since his rookie year.  We've seen Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green step up in his stead as both of them are putting up double-digits for the first time.  The Spurs have more experience than any other team in the playoffs with Kobe now out.  It's interesting to see how Gasol has now become the playmaker which has opened the lane up for Howard to do what he does best, dunk.  It will be a battle down low with them and the Spurs Duncan and Tiago Splitter.  So to me it's going to come down to guard play and even though Blake has played well lately, including getting the better of the Frenchman in their recent matchup, Parker is too good and too experienced to let that happen over a 7-game series.  I do think this will be a great series even without Kobe, but the Spurs are too deep for the Lakers.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

3 Denver Nuggets vs 6 Golden State Warriors

I hope you can keep up if you're going to watch this series as these might be the two fastest teams in the NBA.  The Denver Nuggets come into the playoffs short-handed with their second leading scorer Danilo Gallinari out for the season with a torn ACL and Kenneth Faried, their leading rebounder, questionable with a sore ankle.  The Nuggets have done well all year without a superstar player but unless Faried can get back in the lineup soon they might have some problems.  One thing Denver has going for it is their great home court advantage.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA at 38-3.  With Gallinari out, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer have seen more minutes and both have played well.  Denver has so many weapons, nine players average between eight and 16 points, which is a main reason they led the league in scoring.  But for the Golden State Warriors, they rely heavily on their three main guns of Stephen Curry, David Lee, and Klay Thompson.  Curry averaged a career high 22.9 points while setting a NBA record 3-pointers made with 272, breaking Ray Allen's old mark by three.  Curry is the best shooter in the league and his backcourt mate, Thompson, also likes to let it fly from deep.  In only his second year, Thompson averaged 16.6 a game and hit 40% from downtown.  But their most consistent player was Lee who put up 18.5 points and 11.2 boards a game and gives the Warriors an inside presence to go with their great guard play.  Both these teams will run and gun as this might be the most entertaining series in the first round.  But while GS likes to shoot from beyond the arc, Denver scored more points in the paint than anybody.  It's because of that, I think the Nuggets will take this series easily.  The fact that they get easy buckets and the Warriors need to be hitting jumpers bodes well for the rich and creamy's.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

4 Los Angeles Clippers vs 5 Memphis Grizzlies 

In the first round of last years playoffs these two teams met and gave us an exciting 7-game series.  The Clippers were also the 4-seed a season ago and benefited from having the deciding game at home.  Both teams have new editions, but the Clippers have gotten more production out of theirs.  LAC added Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, and Lamar Odom in the off-season and all have contributed in their own right.  But, none more than Crawford.  His last four years he's provided instant offense from the bench and has given the Clips 16.5 a game in his first season with the team.  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have seen their points go down from last year but they are getting help from all over as they are scoring more as a team.  DeAndre Jordan has provided an offensive lift to lob city and has the poster of the year, sorry Brandon Knight.  For the Memphis Grizzlies, they traded away their leading scorer, Rudy Gay, midway through the year.  Along with Gay, the other main guy sent away was Marreese Speights and in return they received Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis to fill those voids.  Prince stepped into the starting lineup and added more defense to an already great defensive team.  The Grizzlies score the least out of any West playoff team with 93.4, but give up the fewest points in the NBA at 89.3.  With getting rid of their leading scorer, the offense falls on the shoulders of Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol.  Randolph and Gasol are a load inside for anybody.  In a league that is starting to play smaller, the Grizzlies are one of the few teams that still like to play big.  Conley has improved and raised his production, putting up 14.6 points, which is a career high.  This series going to come down to who controls the tempo of the game.  Paul likes to get the Clippers in transition and Conley wants to slow things down to take advantage to Memphis' bigs.  But LAC is a team that can handle the Grizz down low.  Jordan and Griffin have the size to matchup with Randolph and Gasol.  But can Conley and Tony Allen slow down Paul and Crawford?  That's the biggest question and also to me the Clippers are just too deep.  They have too many scoring threats and even though Memphis is one of the best defensive teams, the Clippers will still find ways to put points on the board.

Prediction: Clippers in 7

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