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Friday, April 19, 2013

NBA Eastern Conference First Round Predictions

The NBA playoffs have arrived and in the East can anybody dethrone the Miami Heat?

1 Miami Heat (66-16) vs 8 Milwaukee Bucks (38-44)

The Miami Heat start their run for a second straight title against the Milwaukee Bucks, a team they went 3-1 against during the regular season.  Teams that rebound the ball well cause the Heat problems and the Bucks rank 5th in the league in that category.  Milwaukee is also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team partly because they are the 3rd worst shooting team in the NBA.  More missed shots mean more rebounds but thankfully for the Heat they have the best shooting percentage by a large margin at 49%.  That's the team matchup but I want to know who's going to guard LeBron James, the likely regular season MVP.  Marquis Daniels, Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Dunleavy will all get their shot but will they be able to at least slow him down, probably not.  The Bucks leading scorer Monta Ellis struggled in each of the four meetings, scoring double-digits only once.  Milwaukee needs more from him and consistency from Brandon Jennings, both can fill it up but also miss a lot.  But let's face it, Miami has been on a roll the second half of the year going 37-3 since the beginning of February.  LBJ, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Co. should have little trouble disposing the Bucks.

Prediction: Heat in 4

2 New York Knicks (54-28) vs 7 Boston Celtics (41-40)

One of the oldest rivalries in the game is renewed when the New York Knicks meet the Boston Celtics.  With the city of Boston dealing with the recent tragedy of the Boston Marathon bombings it might give the Celtics the edge they need to make this series interesting.  The Celtics lost Rajon Rondo 38 games into the season and have been dealing with more injuries as of late.  Kevin Garnett has been tending to a sore ankle the last few weeks and should serve as an integral part of this series.  The Knicks like to play small-ball and if KG can take advantage on the boards and in the post he could be the x-factor.  But the Paul Pierce-Carmelo Anthony matchup is what we need to keep our eye on.  Anthony went on a torrid pace to rip the scoring title away from Kevin Durant down the stretch and this might be his best chance to make the NBA Finals.  But never sleep of Paul Pierce.  The Truth (one of the best nicknames ever) has been in this situation plenty of times and always seems to step up.  Pierce is one player that can slow Melo down on defense while causing him trouble on the offensive end.  But with that being said I feel the Knicks have too much fire power with the emergence of J.R. Smith and Tyson Chandler coming back from injury.  It should be a good series but Boston will have trouble keeping up with the New York offense.

Prediction: Knicks in 6

3 Indiana Pacers (49-32) vs 6 Atlanta Hawks (44-38)

These two teams split their four meetings this year with the home team winning each game and I see more of the same in the playoffs.  Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league holding opponents to 90.7 points per game, good for second fewest, and are also one of the biggest.  Their front line of Roy Hibbert (7'2), David West (6'9), and Paul George (6'8) causes matchup problems for almost any team in the NBA.  George and George Hill are also two of the most improved players this year, both benefiting from more playing time.  After the loss of Danny Granger to injury, George was put in a similar role and flourished with 17.4 points and 7.6 rebounds a game.  As for Hill, the departure of Darren Collison opened the door for him to put up his best numbers of 14.2 points and 4.7 assists.  The Atlanta Hawks saw Joe Johnson leave for Brooklyn which led to Jeff Teague and Al Horford having their best seasons.  Teague finished with 14.6 points and 7.2 assists while Horford averaged his first double-double with 17.4 and 10.2 boards.  These teams are very similar, both are big and both have seen players step up in new roles.  As with all Hawks games the x-factor for them is their leading scorer Josh Smith.  He is a great player but finds himself on the perimeter too often when he should be in the post.  Also, depending if the Hawks decide to put him on West or George his defense is going to be key if Atlanta wants to win.  In the end Indiana's defense and rebounding will determine who advances.  The Hawks will put up a fight but the Pacers will move on.

Prediction: Pacers in 7

4 Brooklyn Nets (49-33) vs 5 Chicago Bulls (45-37)

After missing the playoffs a year ago while playing in New Jersey, the Nets made the move to Brooklyn and secured home court advantage against the Chicago Bulls.  Deron Williams is one of the best point guards in the NBA and Brook Lopez is one of the best center's nobody really talks about.  Williams' numbers are slightly down from previous years (18.9 points and 7.7 assists) but is still capable of carrying a team.  Lopez had a solid year with 19.4 and 6.9 boards while Reggie Evans dominated the glass in the late stages of the season.  Evans put up Dennis Rodman like numbers the last two months averaging over 15 rebounds a game and he had nine games of 20-plus throughout the year.  But how much better would this series be if Derrick Rose was back from his ACL injury.  It was in the first game of the playoffs a year ago when Rose went down and you could hear the entire city of Chicago hold their breath.  He still is not ready to return and he shouldn't at this point.  It's more important for him, and the Bulls organization, that he does not come back until fully healed.  The Bulls have had other injury problems as well with Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich, Richard Hamilton and Taj Gibson all missing a significant time.  The biggest question mark is Noah.  The energy and defense he brings to this team is hard to replace.  With Noah on the court he provides a stopper to Lopez in the post but him being able to play is still up in the air.  Honestly, I haven't been impressed with the Nets at all this year.  I think Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace are at the tail end of their careers and will have trouble with Luol Deng and the young upstart Jimmy Butler.  Noah is a significant piece to the puzzle but I still think the Bulls will pull this out in a gritty battle.

Prediction: Bulls in 6

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