NFL Wild-Card Weekend

     The NFL playoffs have arrived and it's time to throw the records out because as the New York Giants showed us last year all you have to do is make the post-season and anything can happen.  This weekend brings a rematch of a wild-card game last year, a rematch between Week 17 opponents and division rivals, a rookie quarterback against a retiring defensive star, and two more rookie QB's going head-to-head.  The last two Super Bowl champions have played on wild-card weekend so there is plenty to pay attention to in these games.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4) -4.5 at 4:30pm Sat.

     These are two teams heading in different directions coming into the playoffs.  The Cincinnati Bengals won 7 of their last 8 to close out the season.  On the other hand the Houston Texans lost 3 of 4 while squeaking out OT wins over the lowly Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars down the stretch to lose the #1 seed and a first round bye.  When the season started Houston was a popular pick for the Super Bowl, now they are a popular pick to be upset, but should they?  Lest we forget, these two teams played in the first round a year ago with the Texans winning 31-10 with backup quarterback T.J. Yates at the helm.  That game also marked J.J. Watt's coming out party with an athletic pick six of Andy Dalton.  Houston's defense is coming in a little banged up especially at the linebacker position but they are more worried about stopping Bengals emerging wideout A.J. Green who will see a lot of cornerback Jonathan Joseph.  Cincinnati has an underrated defense that ranks in the top ten in yards and points per game but they will have to find a way to slow down Texans running back Arian Foster who torched them for 153 yards and two TD's last year.  I know that Houston has struggled to end the year but I still think they will pull this game out.  Give the young Bengals another year to mature and they take this game, until then give me the Texans but in a close one.

Game: Houston
Bet: Cincinnati


Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5) -7.5 at 8:00pm Sat.

     Familiar foes meet in this game of division rivals which is also a rematch of a game the Minnesota Vikings needed to win to make it to the playoffs.  The Vikes took that one on a last second field goal 37-34 and behind legs of Adrian Peterson who ran for 199 yards.  Peterson is a remarkable story coming back from a serious knee injury to rush for 2,097 yards, nine yards shy of breaking the all-time single-season record.  In their earlier meeting he rushed for 210 yards but Minnesota fell to the Packers 23-14.  Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers was consistent as usual this year throwing for 4,295 yards, 39 TD's and leading the NFL with a 108 QB rating.  Mr. Discount Double Check put up those numbers without having a 1,000 yard receiver as Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb all missed games due to injuries.  But, all those guys are now healthy (Charles Woodson will also be back for the defense) and the Pack will look to make another run to the Super Bowl.  The Vikings did what they had to do at home to make the playoffs and Peterson made his case for MVP, but it's a whole different story playing in Green Bay in December.  Minnesota's QB Christian Ponder has been too inconsistent for them to get a win at the frozen tundra.  I expect to see Aaron Rodgers clicking with his full compliment of receiving options and their defense to pressure Ponder into making poor decisions and turnovers.  Go Pack Go in a rout.

Game: Green Bay
Bet: Green Bay


Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6) -7 at 1:00pm Sun.

     The Indianapolis Colts selected Andrew Luck #1 overall in the draft and it paid off as he lead them to the playoffs in his first season.  While the Colts have a franchise player coming in, the Baltimore Ravens have one leaving as 2-time Defensive Player of the Year, Ray Lewis, will be retiring at the end of the season.  Again we have two teams going in opposite directions as the Colts have won 5 of 6 and the Ravens have dropped 4 of 5.  The Colts are an interesting team as they have a winning record at 11-5 but are the only team to make the playoffs that has been outscored by their opponent (22.3-24.2 per game).  However, all that matters are W's and the Colts find themselves facing a Ravens team that has been hampered by injuries all season and struggling down the stretch.  Their normally stout defense has been mediocre as players at almost every position have been out.  Starters Ray Lewis LB, Terrell Suggs LB, Haloti Ngata DE, Lardarius Webb CB, Jimmy Smith CB, and Bernard Pollard SS have all missed time, some out for the season.  On the offensive end Ray Rice's numbers have been down compared to last year but is still capable of having a big game against the Colts 29th ranked rushing defense.  Luck has played well but has also committed 23 turnovers (18 INT's and 5 fumbles) and will have to limit those if he was to get his team a victory.  To me, this game will be decided by Ravens QB Joe Flacco.  He has won at least one playoff game in each of his first four years and it looks like that trend will continue if he is able to play with confidence and manage the offense.  I also feel this defense will get a huge boost from knowing their star Ray Lewis is making his last playoff appearance.

Game: Baltimore
Bet: Baltimore


Seattle Seahawks (11-5) -3.5 @ Washington Redskins (10-6) at 4:30pm Sun.

     Both of these teams are very similar as they each have rookie quarterback's, strong running games, and strong defenses.  Each team is lead by Seattle's Russell Wilson and Washington's Robert Griffin III, and each rank in the top 4 in QB passer rating.  Wilson is definitely the bigger surprise.  In the off-season Seattle spent big money to bring Matt Flynn over from the Packers, then drafted Wilson in the third round.  Wilson won the job and hasn't looked back throwing for 26 TD's.  RGIII came into Washington knowing he will be the starter and showed his Heisman trophy season at Baylor translated to the NFL throwing for 3,200 yards and 20 TD's while rushing for for over 800 yards and 7 TD's.  The two running backs in this game ranked only behind Adrian Peterson in rushing yards.  Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is as tough a runner there is in the NFL (so much determination doe) as he ran for 1,590 yards and 11 TD's.  The Redskins have another rookie in the backfield, sixth round draft pick out of Florida Atlantic, Alfred Morris, who totaled 1,613 and 13 TD's on the ground.  Nobody saw this coming from Morris, but on most Mike Shanahan coached teams, whoever he finally chooses to be his running back usually has a big year.  RGIII and Morris combined to have the best rushing attack in the league.  As for the defenses, Seattle had the best in the NFL, giving up the fewest points per game at 15.3 and ranked 4th in total yards.  Washington has an underrated defense as they rank 4th in takeaways, 2nd in turnover differential and 5th in rushing defense.  The one thing to watch is how Russell Wilson and the Seahawks play on the road.  They were 8-0 at home beating the likes of Green Bay (controversially), New England (last secondly), and San Francisco (blow-outly).  However, on the road they were 3-5 (one win coming in Canada) losing to Arizona, Detroit, and Miami.  The Redskins have won 7 straight, including their final game against the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs, so they are coming in hot.  I like to think that defense wins championships and if I go by that, Seattle has a great chance.  This game can honestly go either way, but the Seahawks D will stifle RGIII and Morris and put their road questions to bed.  I will stick with the road favorite.

Game: Seattle
Bet: Washington