The first weekend of the playoffs went according to schedule as all the favorites moved on. This weekend however will be a little more difficult to call as all remaining teams have at least one win against each other. Three of the four games are rematches from earlier in the year as Baltimore-Denver, Green Bay-San Francisco, and Houston-New England have all played this season. As for Seattle-Atlanta, the Seahawks will again be thought of as the road team with the best odds to escape with a win.
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sat.
The Baltimore Ravens travel to Denver this weekend looking to get revenge for a 34-17 defeat the Broncos handed them on December 16th. After an easy win over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, the Ravens will now have to contend with a team that ranks 4th in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Baltimore looked good running the ball last week as they had 172 yards rushing, 103 by Bernard Pierce. Joe Flacco continued his first round winning streak throwing for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 12 completions. That game also marked Ray Lewis' last home game of his stellar career and it was good to see him leave on a high note. But now they face the Denver Broncos, the hottest team in football, on an 11-game win streak. In their first meeting the Broncos controlled both sides of the ball while building a 31-3 lead as they scored on the ground, through the air and on defense. Along with Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning is a candidate for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year as he threw for 4659 yards and 37 TD's. Coming off of serious neck surgery, we weren't sure how Peyton would perform but he had arguably his best season ever with his highest completion percentage and second highest totals in yards and touchdowns. He wasn't their only bright spot either as the defense played at a high level all season ranking 3rd in opponents passing and rushing yards per game. In previous years Baltimore would have a chance in this game because they would hold the advantage on D but not this year. Denver is too balanced offensively, even with their starting running back Willis McGahee out, and their defense made the Ravens struggle badly at home. If this game was being played in Maryland I'd give Baltimore a chance to win, but it's not. I give the edge to Peyton Manning, who led the league in Quarterback Rating at 84.1, and the Denver D.
Game: Denver
Bet: Baltimore
Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) -3 at 8:00pm Sat.
In the first game of the season the San Francisco 49ers traveled to Green Bay and left with a 30-22 victory. Now the Packers will travel to San Fran in the Divisional Round of the playoffs looking to return the favor. Last week the Packers coasted to a 24-10 win over Minnesota and their backup QB Joe Webb. They will face another QB that began the season as a backup this week but Colin Kaepernick has proved himself to be a viable starter in the NFL. Kaepernick played sparingly until getting the start week 11 against the Chicago Bears and led the Niners to a 32-7 W, throwing for 243 yards and 2 TD's. He went on to finish the season 5-2 as a starter and pushed Alex Smith to the role of backup QB. In the teams first meeting it was Smith that threw for 211 yards and 2 TD's while Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards and a TD. But Kaepernick provides a running threat that Green Bay will have to worry about if they want to pull off the upset. While he is making his first post-season start, Aaron Rodgers will be making his eighth and his team is getting healthy at the right time. The problem they've had is a lack of running game and when going up against a defense like the Niners, you can't be one dimensional. SF ranks 3rd in opponents total yards and 2nd in opponents points at 17.1 per game, being led by Aldon Smith who was 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 19.5. Rodgers and Green Bay's passing offense is so efficient they usually can overcome not having a consistent rushing attack. However, The key this game with be the Packers defense. If they are able to contain Gore and stymie the Niners through the air they have a great chance because you know Rodgers is going to put up points even against one of the best defenses in the league. I feel like Green Bay's defense will step up and pressure the inexperienced Kaepernick into bad throws. This should be a great game coming down to the wire with Rodgers leading his team to the NFC Championship game.
Game: Green Bay
Bet: Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) -2.5 at 1:00pm Sun.
Is this the year Matt Ryan will win his first playoff game? After making the playoffs 3 of his first 4 years Matty Ice is still looking for his first win. He put up the best numbers of his career with 4,719 yards and 32 TD's but will have his hands full with Seattle's defense. The Seahawks were able to advance after a 24-14 win in Washington, Marshawn Lynch ran for 132 yards and 1 TD. The Falcons defense is tough to get a handle on because by a yardage standpoint they rank 24th but only give up 18.7 points per game, good for 5th. Stopping Lynch will be their #1 priority as he's rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 5 games. While Atlanta has to try to stop one player, Seattle will be asked to stop two dynamic wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. White and Jones combined for 2,549 yards and 17 TD's and will be matched up against Seattle Corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. I believe this matchup will decide the game. Receivers are usually bigger than corners, but Browner (6'4", 221 lbs) and Sherman (6'3", 195) are not your average corners and have a size advantage over almost every receiver tandem in the league. While White and Jones both had great seasons, for some reason Jones played much better on the road than at home. On the road Jones had 751 yards and 8 TD's while only totaling 447 and 2 TD's in the Georgia Dome. If Atlanta is able to complete passes down field for big plays they have a great chance of winning. As discussed last week, Seattle and quarterback Russell Wilson have struggled on the road. They were able to get a road playoff win last week but I don't see it happening again. A lot of people don't have faith in the Falcons but they were 7-1 at home and if their offense can score on this tough D, Matt Ryan will get that elusive first playoff win.
Game: Atlanta
Bet: Atlanta
Houston Texans (12-4) @ New England (12-4) -9.5 at 4:30pm Sun.
Their meeting in the regular season was one of the most anticipated because Houston was coming in with an 11-1 record and road game in New England on Monday night would tell us if they were for real. The Texans played uninspiring football and were smashed 42-14 behind Tom Brady's 296 yards and 4 TD's. Houston will have to find some way to slow down Brady as he and the Patriots have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL at 34.8 points per game. We all know what to expect out of Brady but running back Stevan Ridley was a pleasant surprise for New England rushing for 1,263 yards and 12 TD's. The Pats started the season 3-3 (losing those games by a combined 4 points) but finished strong at 9-1 and now are now poised for another Super Bowl push. I'm not going to lie, I really don't think the Texans have much of a chance in this game. For Houston, everything starts with their running game but in the first meeting Arian Foster only managed 46 yards. Partly because New England jumped out to a 28-0 lead and Houston was forced to throw to get back in the game. I see this same scenario playing out again. New England's defense never gets enough credit but they rank 9th in opponents rushing and points against while creating 41 turnovers, 2nd behind Chicago. Year in and year out the Patriots are the most consistent team in the league. New England will handle Houston and with ease and with a win, Tom Brady will pass Joe Montana for most career playoff wins by a QB.
Game: New England
Bet: New England
Last Week
Straight Up: 4-0
Against The Spread: 2-2
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