The NBA is back so let's take a quick look around the Eastern Conference.
There's a lot of new faces in new places that will definitely mix things
up from a year ago. Derrick Rose is back after taking a year off to
recover from ACL surgery, the Brooklyn Nets brought in two future hall of famers in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, while the Detroit Pistons have added Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings.
However, the East is basically a four team race. The one thing we know is that everybody will again be chasing the
Miami Heat.
Eastern Conference Contenders
Miami
Heat - Obviously we have to start with the Heat. Coming off of two
straight NBA Championships and LeBron James' two consecutive NBA MVP's,
the road to the title goes through Miami. A big question is are they
still hungry enough to get their third straight ring? At the end of
last season Dwyane Wade was struggling with injuries and another year on
his rusty knees might slow him down even more. Chris Bosh has been the
third wheel of the "Big Three" but if he's able to take some of the
load off Wade this team could be just as strong as ever. The Heat lost
playoff hero Mike Miller but added former #2 overall pick Michael
Beasley and former #1 overall pick Greg Oden. Both are still young (24
and 25 respectively) but who knows how much they have left to offer.
Beasley averaged a career worst 10.1 points a season ago on a bad
Phoenix team and in my opinion has too many personal issues to deal with
before he can become a solid contributor again. Oden on the other hand
was hit with the curse of the Portland big man. Just like Sam Bowie
and Bill Walton, Oden suffered a serious leg injury that made him miss
the last three seasons. Oden's potential all depends on his health. If
he's healthy he will be a great asset to this team, especially if he can move
Bosh to his more natural position of power forward.
Indiana
Pacers - The Pacers were one game away from shocking the world and
reaching the NBA Finals a year ago. Indiana took the Heat to a game
seven as Paul George had a national coming out party as he went
head-to-head with LBJ and held his own for most of the series. That
performance helped George win the most improved award and put the
Indiana Pacers as team that could take down Miami. Along with George,
Roy Hibbert also showed the world what he can do in the playoffs.
Hibbert seemed to plateau for three years hovering around 12 points and
eight rebounds, but in the playoffs he ratcheted up his intensity and
aggressiveness. The 7'2 center averaged 17 and 10 in the postseason
including leading the Pacers in scoring and rebounding against the Heat
with 22 points and 10 boards. If Hibbert brings that same aggression
for an entire season he could challenge Dwight Howard for best center in
the league. One addition the Pacers made was a big one when they
brought in Luis Scola. This is a guy that shares the same tough
mentality the Pacers do and can give them quality minutes off the bench
to spell Hibbert and David West.
Chicago
Bulls - The last time Derrick Rose played a regular season he led the
Bulls to the best record in the NBA for the second year in a row. He
took off last year to fully recover from his ACL tear in the 2012
playoffs and Chicago finished fifth in the East. A lot of NBA fans,
especially ones in Chicago, questioned why Rose took so long to return
to action. Especially after seeing Adrian Peterson suffer the same
injury and become the NFL MVP. But, it might have been the best thing
Rose could have done. We have to remember he's still on 25 and if he
could have played last year he would have had a higher risk of
re-injuring himself. Now that he's had more than a year to fully
recover, the Bulls are primed to take back that top spot in the NBA.
Aside from Rose, the difference maker will be third-year man Jimmy
Butler. In the latter half of last year he became a legit scorer and
defender for the Bulls. We know what they'll get out of Joakim Noah,
Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng, but if Butler continues to improve that
will give Chicago one of the best starting lineups in the league. The
spark plug for the Bull is Noah, however, he is struggling with a groin
injury right now after being less than 100% for last year's playoffs
with plantar fasciitis. With this team back at full strength they could
be the ones to dethrone the defending champs.
Brooklyn Nets - In the
2012 offseason Brooklyn made a move to acquire Joe Johnson. This
offseason they made an even bigger one getting Paul Pierce, Kevin
Garnett, and Jason Terry from the Boston Celtics. I never thought I'd
ever see Pierce play for another team after giving 15 years to Boston
but they sent him away. Another key player added was Andrei Kirilenko.
He's never going to wow you on the court but he can fill a stat sheet
and play great defense. Add these four guys to a team with Deron
Williams, Brook Lopez and the previously mentioned Johnson and you have a
roster with 36 all-star and 16 all-NBA selections combined. That's a
pretty decent resume. The problem the Nets will run into is the same
problem that has plagued teams loaded with talent. There's only one
ball and one if not two of these stars will need to take one a smaller
role than they are used to. Some guys can't handle that and become a
detriment to their team. It might take a month or two for this team to
get a feel for how each other plays but if they start clicking Brooklyn
will be a team to watch out for come playoff time.
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
1. Miami Heat
2. Indiana Pacers
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Brooklyn Nets
5. New York Knicks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Washington Wizards
Showing posts with label Dwyane Wade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dwyane Wade. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Thursday, June 6, 2013
NBA Finals Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat
The NBA Finals are here and a consistent contender in the San Antonio Spurs, match up with the defending champion, Miami Heat. The Spurs are coming off a sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, while the Heat finished off the Indiana Pacers in a grueling 7-game series. Will the Spurs show any rust from the long layoff or will it be much needed rest for their older players? Will the Heat be tired from going the distance with the Pacers or will they find a second wind to go back-to-back. These are only a few of the questions we have before this series starts tonight.
Which Big 3 has the advantage?
The same year Miami's Big 3 were drafted in 2003, San Antonio's Big 3 were coming off their first of three championships together. Long before the term Big 3 was a cliche, the Spurs Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili made up a core that has stuck together for over 10 years. The originators will now take on the latest Big 3 to win a title in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
For the Spurs, Parker seems to have turned back the hands of time and is having arguably the best season of his career. Duncan is having his best season over the past three, whereas Ginobili is have his worst year in the last three seasons. Parker has been the second best player in the playoffs and showed it against Memphis, one of the best defensive teams in the league. Parker had his way with Mike Conley and Tony Allen all series. When his jumper was off in game 2 he dished out 18 assists and in game 4 he poured in 37 points on 15-21 shooting. Duncan has been his fundamental self averaging 17.8 points and 9.2 boards in the playoffs. 20 and 10 is no longer a nightly thing for the 37 year old Duncan, but is still very possible. And after seeing what Roy Hibbert and David West did to Miami's front line, I can see Timmy producing just the same. Ginobili on the other hand could be the wild card. Besides hitting a game winning three in double overtime against Golden State, the Argentinian has been relatively quiet. At 35, he looks to be hitting a wall averaging only 11.5 points in the playoffs. But, the Finals usually bring out the best in players that have proven they don't crack under pressure.
The Heat's Big 3 is in their third year as teammates and have reached the NBA Finals for the third consecutive year. LeBron was named NBA MVP for the fourth time and like Parker, is having one of his best seasons ever. He's also been the best player in the playoffs as well and showed us in the series against the Pacers. Not only was he asked to guard Paul George, Indiana's best perimeter player, but also carry the offense because Wade and Bosh have struggled mightily. Wade has been a shell of himself scoring 14.1 ppg and only reaching 20 points twice this postseason. He missed 13 games during the year with a knee problem so maybe that's still bothering him. Whatever his issue, the Heat will need more production from Wade if they want to get past the Spurs. As for Bosh, he had a really hard time against the bigger and stronger Pacers front line and only managed 11 points and 4.3 rebounds in the series. Playing against Duncan and Tiago Splitter might help Bosh as they aren't as physical and play more of his style.
Miami's Big 3 are all around their prime age but only LeBron is playing like it. Parker and Duncan are definitely holding their own but Ginobili looks like he's lost his game. If I'm going to give an edge I'd have to give it to the Heat, but only slightly. We know LBJ is the best player on the planet, but Wade showed up in game 7 against the Pacers and I think he might have found his groove. I also don't expect Bosh to play as poorly as he has. Against the Spurs during the regular season he put up 41 points and 21 rebounds in two games.
Will LeBron James guard Tony Parker?
This is a huge question and one that could determine the outcome of this series. As we've discussed Parker has been on a tear and hasn't shown signs of slowing down. After dismantling two of the best on ball defenders in Conley and Allen he might have to contend with the most athletic player in the league. But would it be smart for James to take on Parker? For an entire game, no. Parker can run for days and with all the screens he gets it would probably tire LeBron out to be able to produce effectively on offense. There's no question he is the Heat's best defender but with how much they need him to create on offense, they can't afford James to burn himself out chasing Parker all of the court. In late game situations I expect to see this match up, but not from the jump.
Which bench will have the bigger impact?
Bench players always have an impact on every game, either in a positive or negative way. Both teams have key contributors as reserves and will need their help to win the title. Both are also thin with post players and their strongest contributors play on the outside.
San Antonio looks to Ginobili, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal, and Boris Diaw when the starters need a rest. We've talked about Ginobili already but he is the best sixth man in this series even with struggling in the playoffs so far. The reason is because he can effect the game in other ways than scoring (4.5 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg). Bonner will never "wow" you with athleticism, like this jumpball with Zach Randolph, but he is one of the best three-point shooters in the league at 44%. Neal is a serviceable backup point guard to Parker and when given the minutes he can fill it up, as he's scored 20+ points multiple times this year. Diaw is a big body and if he's going to contribute it will be through rebounding and playmaking at the high post.
Coming off the Heat's bench is Ray Allen, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller. Regulated to the bench, Allen has been up and down all year, but mostly down averaging a career low 10 points per game. He was on fire from deep in their first series against the Bucks but has faded badly until game 7 with the Pacers where he was 3-5. That's all that he offers anymore is three-point shooting and if he's off he might as well stay on the bench. Andersen, one of Shaq's favorites, has provided a huge lift for the Heat since joining the team. A friend of mine thinks he's one of the main reasons the Heat were 40-4 after he was signed in late January. There's no doubt he's helped by adding much needed rebounding to a poor rebounding team as well as a rim protector. Cole can provide defensive pressure on Parker as he was able to disrupt George Hill and DJ Augustin of the Pacers, and can knockdown 3's. Battier and Miller are one in the same. Battier might draw a charge or two but their sole responsibility is to hit open three-pointers when James or Wade drives and dishes.
I will give the advantage to the Heat because their bench can provide in more areas. The Spurs bench outside of Ginobili only offers scoring but the Heat get scoring and defense out of their reserves.
Who will control the 3-point line and rebounding?
We know that supplementing Miami's Big 3, they have surrounded them with three-point threats. Along with the bench players I just mentioned, Mario Chalmers is another guy that hit from deep and even Bosh has been knocking down 3's in the playoffs. In their meeting in San Antonio, the Heat made 12 of 28 from downtown helping them win without Wade and LeBron, 88-86. But the Spurs are an underrated three-point shooting team. Bonner, Ginobili, Danny Green, and Kawhi Leonard are all capable of getting hot from long range. Also, in the postseason the Spurs have a better three-point percentage (36.2%) than the Heat (35.6%) and San Antonio also makes more (7.4) than Miami (7.1) per game. So you might not think of the Spurs as deep threats but they have the right players to compliment Duncan and Parker's paint production.
We saw the Pacers decimate the Heat on the boards and it was no different for the Spurs in their two meetings this year. San Antonio held a 94-70 edge combined in the two games. Much like Indiana, the Spurs attack the glass in a team effort not just relying on Duncan and Splitter to grab the rebound. But, Bosh proved he can board with the Spurs and that's a huge plus. Wade also seemed to be rejuvenated in game 7 as he grabbed nine rebounds, including six offensive. It was the only game in which Miami had the rebounding advantage, so maybe that means they solved their problem on the glass.
Both are very similar in both categories but I'm going with the Spurs to control each aspect. They are sneaky good from three-point range and have great size at every position.
Who will win the series?
We still haven't seen these two teams play a legit game this year but the Heat did win both meetings. Although in game one Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sent Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Green back to San Antonio after the first game of a back-to-back, and Leonard was hurt. This made NBA Commissioner David Stern pretty upset. So, in the second meeting Heat coach Erik Spoelstra figured he'd sit James, Wade, and Chalmers to get back at Coach Pop. We have two games to look at to determine what will happen in this series but we really don't know what to expect when both teams match up at full strength.
However, to me the Spurs have too much experience and the best coach in the league and will pull this out. Popovich is one of the greatest coaches ever along side Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach. Pop already has four championships and except his first season and a lockout year, his team has won 50+ games every year since 1998. If this is a long series, which I think it will be, there will come a time where Popovich seriously out coaches the young Erik Spoelstra. Also, another title for Tim Duncan will solidify him as the best power forward ever and possibly the best player of his era. Not to mention, Tony Parker has reestablished himself as the best point guard in the NBA. Yes, better than Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Let's not forget that it was Parker who was the Finals MVP in 2007 when the Spurs swept LeBron's Cavs. James is the best player in the NBA and will be the best player in this series. But, San Antonio has the next two best players and the best coach which will be tough for King James to overcome. And don't sleep on the other starters for the Spurs. Green, Leonard, and Splitter will out perform Miami's complimentary players to take home the championship.
Spurs in 6
Which Big 3 has the advantage?
The same year Miami's Big 3 were drafted in 2003, San Antonio's Big 3 were coming off their first of three championships together. Long before the term Big 3 was a cliche, the Spurs Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili made up a core that has stuck together for over 10 years. The originators will now take on the latest Big 3 to win a title in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
For the Spurs, Parker seems to have turned back the hands of time and is having arguably the best season of his career. Duncan is having his best season over the past three, whereas Ginobili is have his worst year in the last three seasons. Parker has been the second best player in the playoffs and showed it against Memphis, one of the best defensive teams in the league. Parker had his way with Mike Conley and Tony Allen all series. When his jumper was off in game 2 he dished out 18 assists and in game 4 he poured in 37 points on 15-21 shooting. Duncan has been his fundamental self averaging 17.8 points and 9.2 boards in the playoffs. 20 and 10 is no longer a nightly thing for the 37 year old Duncan, but is still very possible. And after seeing what Roy Hibbert and David West did to Miami's front line, I can see Timmy producing just the same. Ginobili on the other hand could be the wild card. Besides hitting a game winning three in double overtime against Golden State, the Argentinian has been relatively quiet. At 35, he looks to be hitting a wall averaging only 11.5 points in the playoffs. But, the Finals usually bring out the best in players that have proven they don't crack under pressure.
The Heat's Big 3 is in their third year as teammates and have reached the NBA Finals for the third consecutive year. LeBron was named NBA MVP for the fourth time and like Parker, is having one of his best seasons ever. He's also been the best player in the playoffs as well and showed us in the series against the Pacers. Not only was he asked to guard Paul George, Indiana's best perimeter player, but also carry the offense because Wade and Bosh have struggled mightily. Wade has been a shell of himself scoring 14.1 ppg and only reaching 20 points twice this postseason. He missed 13 games during the year with a knee problem so maybe that's still bothering him. Whatever his issue, the Heat will need more production from Wade if they want to get past the Spurs. As for Bosh, he had a really hard time against the bigger and stronger Pacers front line and only managed 11 points and 4.3 rebounds in the series. Playing against Duncan and Tiago Splitter might help Bosh as they aren't as physical and play more of his style.
Miami's Big 3 are all around their prime age but only LeBron is playing like it. Parker and Duncan are definitely holding their own but Ginobili looks like he's lost his game. If I'm going to give an edge I'd have to give it to the Heat, but only slightly. We know LBJ is the best player on the planet, but Wade showed up in game 7 against the Pacers and I think he might have found his groove. I also don't expect Bosh to play as poorly as he has. Against the Spurs during the regular season he put up 41 points and 21 rebounds in two games.
Will LeBron James guard Tony Parker?
This is a huge question and one that could determine the outcome of this series. As we've discussed Parker has been on a tear and hasn't shown signs of slowing down. After dismantling two of the best on ball defenders in Conley and Allen he might have to contend with the most athletic player in the league. But would it be smart for James to take on Parker? For an entire game, no. Parker can run for days and with all the screens he gets it would probably tire LeBron out to be able to produce effectively on offense. There's no question he is the Heat's best defender but with how much they need him to create on offense, they can't afford James to burn himself out chasing Parker all of the court. In late game situations I expect to see this match up, but not from the jump.
Which bench will have the bigger impact?
Bench players always have an impact on every game, either in a positive or negative way. Both teams have key contributors as reserves and will need their help to win the title. Both are also thin with post players and their strongest contributors play on the outside.
San Antonio looks to Ginobili, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal, and Boris Diaw when the starters need a rest. We've talked about Ginobili already but he is the best sixth man in this series even with struggling in the playoffs so far. The reason is because he can effect the game in other ways than scoring (4.5 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg). Bonner will never "wow" you with athleticism, like this jumpball with Zach Randolph, but he is one of the best three-point shooters in the league at 44%. Neal is a serviceable backup point guard to Parker and when given the minutes he can fill it up, as he's scored 20+ points multiple times this year. Diaw is a big body and if he's going to contribute it will be through rebounding and playmaking at the high post.
Coming off the Heat's bench is Ray Allen, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller. Regulated to the bench, Allen has been up and down all year, but mostly down averaging a career low 10 points per game. He was on fire from deep in their first series against the Bucks but has faded badly until game 7 with the Pacers where he was 3-5. That's all that he offers anymore is three-point shooting and if he's off he might as well stay on the bench. Andersen, one of Shaq's favorites, has provided a huge lift for the Heat since joining the team. A friend of mine thinks he's one of the main reasons the Heat were 40-4 after he was signed in late January. There's no doubt he's helped by adding much needed rebounding to a poor rebounding team as well as a rim protector. Cole can provide defensive pressure on Parker as he was able to disrupt George Hill and DJ Augustin of the Pacers, and can knockdown 3's. Battier and Miller are one in the same. Battier might draw a charge or two but their sole responsibility is to hit open three-pointers when James or Wade drives and dishes.
I will give the advantage to the Heat because their bench can provide in more areas. The Spurs bench outside of Ginobili only offers scoring but the Heat get scoring and defense out of their reserves.
Who will control the 3-point line and rebounding?
We know that supplementing Miami's Big 3, they have surrounded them with three-point threats. Along with the bench players I just mentioned, Mario Chalmers is another guy that hit from deep and even Bosh has been knocking down 3's in the playoffs. In their meeting in San Antonio, the Heat made 12 of 28 from downtown helping them win without Wade and LeBron, 88-86. But the Spurs are an underrated three-point shooting team. Bonner, Ginobili, Danny Green, and Kawhi Leonard are all capable of getting hot from long range. Also, in the postseason the Spurs have a better three-point percentage (36.2%) than the Heat (35.6%) and San Antonio also makes more (7.4) than Miami (7.1) per game. So you might not think of the Spurs as deep threats but they have the right players to compliment Duncan and Parker's paint production.
We saw the Pacers decimate the Heat on the boards and it was no different for the Spurs in their two meetings this year. San Antonio held a 94-70 edge combined in the two games. Much like Indiana, the Spurs attack the glass in a team effort not just relying on Duncan and Splitter to grab the rebound. But, Bosh proved he can board with the Spurs and that's a huge plus. Wade also seemed to be rejuvenated in game 7 as he grabbed nine rebounds, including six offensive. It was the only game in which Miami had the rebounding advantage, so maybe that means they solved their problem on the glass.
Both are very similar in both categories but I'm going with the Spurs to control each aspect. They are sneaky good from three-point range and have great size at every position.
Who will win the series?
We still haven't seen these two teams play a legit game this year but the Heat did win both meetings. Although in game one Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sent Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Green back to San Antonio after the first game of a back-to-back, and Leonard was hurt. This made NBA Commissioner David Stern pretty upset. So, in the second meeting Heat coach Erik Spoelstra figured he'd sit James, Wade, and Chalmers to get back at Coach Pop. We have two games to look at to determine what will happen in this series but we really don't know what to expect when both teams match up at full strength.
However, to me the Spurs have too much experience and the best coach in the league and will pull this out. Popovich is one of the greatest coaches ever along side Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach. Pop already has four championships and except his first season and a lockout year, his team has won 50+ games every year since 1998. If this is a long series, which I think it will be, there will come a time where Popovich seriously out coaches the young Erik Spoelstra. Also, another title for Tim Duncan will solidify him as the best power forward ever and possibly the best player of his era. Not to mention, Tony Parker has reestablished himself as the best point guard in the NBA. Yes, better than Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Let's not forget that it was Parker who was the Finals MVP in 2007 when the Spurs swept LeBron's Cavs. James is the best player in the NBA and will be the best player in this series. But, San Antonio has the next two best players and the best coach which will be tough for King James to overcome. And don't sleep on the other starters for the Spurs. Green, Leonard, and Splitter will out perform Miami's complimentary players to take home the championship.
Spurs in 6
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
5 Reasons Why The Indiana Pacers Could Beat The Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are the overwhelming favorite to not only represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA finals, but to take home their second consecutive championship. Last I checked, the odds for the Heat to win the title are 1/3, which means you have to bet $3 to win $1. Terrible odds when you consider that there are still multiple teams left. But it just goes to show you how pretty much everybody, even Las Vegas, expects Miami to blow past the rest of the competition.
The Heat started the playoffs by disposing of a completely out matched Milwaukee Bucks team in a clean four game sweep. Then they eased by a depleted Chicago Bulls team in five games. Now, they turn their sights on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are the 3-seed in the East and are the biggest long shot left to win a championship. But we've seen crazier things happen before and don't think they are just going to rollover and let Miami walk into the finals. Let's take a look at a few things Indiana has going for itself that will help them take out the mighty Heat.
1. Indiana held a 2-1 series lead last year
From the land of stats that don't but do matter comes this one. A year ago in the Eastern Conference Semis the Pacers took a 2-1 lead after a 19-point victory in Indy. During that game Lance Stephenson, at the time a seldom used bench player, gave LeBron James and the Heat the two-handed choke sign which was not received so well by the rest of the team. Stephenson is now a starter and will have to show out on the court instead of the bench this year. Miami went on to win the next three games but the Pacers showed they can hang with the Heat for half a series now it's time to show they can do it for the entire series. Just like the Pistons had to find a way past Larry Bird and the Celtics and Michael Jordan's Bulls past those same Pistons. The Pacers have a bad taste in their mouth from a year ago and have been looking forward to get another shot at LeBron and Miami.
2. The Pacers won 2 of 3 in regular season
The Pacers were only one of two teams to have a winning record against the Heat during the regular season holding a 2-1 advantage (the New York Knicks were 3-1). I know what some of you are saying "it doesn't matter because it's only the regular season", but why wouldn't it matter? Both teams had their full compliment of players, except Chris Andersen who only played in two of the games, and the games were in the heart of the season. If the Heat didn't care about winning games they wouldn't have gone on a 27 game winning streak. Do any of those wins transfer to playoff wins, no, however it gives a team confidence knowing they haven't struggled against their opponent in the most recent matchups.
3. Paul George
With Danny Granger sidelined due to injury Paul George stepped into the leading role for Indiana this season. George thrived in the situation leading the Pacers in scoring at 17.4 a game and won the NBA's Most Improved award. Not only is he looked at to lead Indiana's offense but will be the primary defender against LeBron. In the three games during the regular season George was able to hold his own against the 4-time MVP. Here's a breakdown of those games.
PTS REB AST PTS REB AST RESULT
Game 1 George 29 11 2 LBJ 22 10 4 Pacers 87-77
Game 2 George 15 6 6 LBJ 28 6 3 Pacers 102-89
Game 3 George 10 6 5 LBJ 13 6 7 Heat 105-91
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Paul George is as good as LeBron James but he obviously has the ability to neutralize his production by matching his numbers. Ironically, the only game LeBron drastically out-performed George was the biggest margin of victory for Indiana. James is the best player on the planet but if George can get close to matching his production it gives the Pacers a great chance to take this series.
4. The Pacers were best 3-point defensive team during the regular season
LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh no doubt run the Miami Heat but they still rely on the three-point shooting of their role players. During the regular season Miami was third in three-pointers made (8.7 per game) and second in three-point percentage (39.6%). However, the Pacers ranked first in opponents three-point percentage (32.7%). It's hard enough to worry about guarding the rim against the big three but when you have to stop Shane Battier, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole from hitting three's it's even more difficult to contain the Heat. Indiana needs to clamp down on the role players hitting big three's and there's hope for the Pacers. The big three will get theirs but it's usually one of the "other guys" that are a determining factor. In the two losses during the regular season the others scored only 11 points on 3-12 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and scored 31 with 4-11 from distance in Game 2. In the single Miami win, Chalmers and Allen alone scored 37 with 6-10 three's and the Heat as a team were able to hit 50% from deep. Not only do the Pacers guard the three well but gave up the second fewest points (90.7) and held opponents to a league best 42% from the field. Holding Miami to jump shots and forcing misses from long range will play right into the Pacers game-plan.
5. Indiana is the best rebounding team in the league
They say the Miami Heat have the most trouble against good rebounding teams. Well guess what, the Indiana Pacers averaged the most rebounds in the league during the regular season (and playoffs) at 45.9 a game. As for Miami, they ranked dead last with 38.6 per game. Rebounding is such a huge part to every game, to be able to keep possessions alive or hold your opponent to only one shot often determines the outcome. In all their meetings this year the Pacers held an edge on the boards. A big question will be how much of the game 7'2 Roy Hibbert plays. The Heat like to play small with Bosh at center and LeBron at power forward so it will be interesting to see if Pacers head coach Frank Vogel will still play Hibbert around 30 minutes a game. Even though the big man leads Indiana on the boards, he isn't the only one attacking the glass as George and Stephenson grab more than eight a game and David West hauls in 6.8 per. It's a total team effort by the Pacers which means it's going to take a total team effort by the Heat to box out and keep them off the glass.
Before you get all riled up thinking I'm taking the Pacers to beat the Heat, I'm not. Because even though Indiana has all that going for them, what Miami has is LeBron James. I do think it will be a hard fought series because there is no love lost from a physical post season meeting a year ago, but Miami is on a whole other level than every team in the east. I'll take the Heat in 6.
The Heat started the playoffs by disposing of a completely out matched Milwaukee Bucks team in a clean four game sweep. Then they eased by a depleted Chicago Bulls team in five games. Now, they turn their sights on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are the 3-seed in the East and are the biggest long shot left to win a championship. But we've seen crazier things happen before and don't think they are just going to rollover and let Miami walk into the finals. Let's take a look at a few things Indiana has going for itself that will help them take out the mighty Heat.
1. Indiana held a 2-1 series lead last year
From the land of stats that don't but do matter comes this one. A year ago in the Eastern Conference Semis the Pacers took a 2-1 lead after a 19-point victory in Indy. During that game Lance Stephenson, at the time a seldom used bench player, gave LeBron James and the Heat the two-handed choke sign which was not received so well by the rest of the team. Stephenson is now a starter and will have to show out on the court instead of the bench this year. Miami went on to win the next three games but the Pacers showed they can hang with the Heat for half a series now it's time to show they can do it for the entire series. Just like the Pistons had to find a way past Larry Bird and the Celtics and Michael Jordan's Bulls past those same Pistons. The Pacers have a bad taste in their mouth from a year ago and have been looking forward to get another shot at LeBron and Miami.
2. The Pacers won 2 of 3 in regular season
The Pacers were only one of two teams to have a winning record against the Heat during the regular season holding a 2-1 advantage (the New York Knicks were 3-1). I know what some of you are saying "it doesn't matter because it's only the regular season", but why wouldn't it matter? Both teams had their full compliment of players, except Chris Andersen who only played in two of the games, and the games were in the heart of the season. If the Heat didn't care about winning games they wouldn't have gone on a 27 game winning streak. Do any of those wins transfer to playoff wins, no, however it gives a team confidence knowing they haven't struggled against their opponent in the most recent matchups.
3. Paul George
With Danny Granger sidelined due to injury Paul George stepped into the leading role for Indiana this season. George thrived in the situation leading the Pacers in scoring at 17.4 a game and won the NBA's Most Improved award. Not only is he looked at to lead Indiana's offense but will be the primary defender against LeBron. In the three games during the regular season George was able to hold his own against the 4-time MVP. Here's a breakdown of those games.
PTS REB AST PTS REB AST RESULT
Game 1 George 29 11 2 LBJ 22 10 4 Pacers 87-77
Game 2 George 15 6 6 LBJ 28 6 3 Pacers 102-89
Game 3 George 10 6 5 LBJ 13 6 7 Heat 105-91
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Paul George is as good as LeBron James but he obviously has the ability to neutralize his production by matching his numbers. Ironically, the only game LeBron drastically out-performed George was the biggest margin of victory for Indiana. James is the best player on the planet but if George can get close to matching his production it gives the Pacers a great chance to take this series.
4. The Pacers were best 3-point defensive team during the regular season
LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh no doubt run the Miami Heat but they still rely on the three-point shooting of their role players. During the regular season Miami was third in three-pointers made (8.7 per game) and second in three-point percentage (39.6%). However, the Pacers ranked first in opponents three-point percentage (32.7%). It's hard enough to worry about guarding the rim against the big three but when you have to stop Shane Battier, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole from hitting three's it's even more difficult to contain the Heat. Indiana needs to clamp down on the role players hitting big three's and there's hope for the Pacers. The big three will get theirs but it's usually one of the "other guys" that are a determining factor. In the two losses during the regular season the others scored only 11 points on 3-12 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and scored 31 with 4-11 from distance in Game 2. In the single Miami win, Chalmers and Allen alone scored 37 with 6-10 three's and the Heat as a team were able to hit 50% from deep. Not only do the Pacers guard the three well but gave up the second fewest points (90.7) and held opponents to a league best 42% from the field. Holding Miami to jump shots and forcing misses from long range will play right into the Pacers game-plan.
5. Indiana is the best rebounding team in the league
They say the Miami Heat have the most trouble against good rebounding teams. Well guess what, the Indiana Pacers averaged the most rebounds in the league during the regular season (and playoffs) at 45.9 a game. As for Miami, they ranked dead last with 38.6 per game. Rebounding is such a huge part to every game, to be able to keep possessions alive or hold your opponent to only one shot often determines the outcome. In all their meetings this year the Pacers held an edge on the boards. A big question will be how much of the game 7'2 Roy Hibbert plays. The Heat like to play small with Bosh at center and LeBron at power forward so it will be interesting to see if Pacers head coach Frank Vogel will still play Hibbert around 30 minutes a game. Even though the big man leads Indiana on the boards, he isn't the only one attacking the glass as George and Stephenson grab more than eight a game and David West hauls in 6.8 per. It's a total team effort by the Pacers which means it's going to take a total team effort by the Heat to box out and keep them off the glass.
Before you get all riled up thinking I'm taking the Pacers to beat the Heat, I'm not. Because even though Indiana has all that going for them, what Miami has is LeBron James. I do think it will be a hard fought series because there is no love lost from a physical post season meeting a year ago, but Miami is on a whole other level than every team in the east. I'll take the Heat in 6.
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