NBA Eastern Conference First Round Predictions

The NBA playoffs have arrived and in the East can anybody dethrone the Miami Heat?

1 Miami Heat (66-16) vs 8 Milwaukee Bucks (38-44)

The Miami Heat start their run for a second straight title against the Milwaukee Bucks, a team they went 3-1 against during the regular season.  Teams that rebound the ball well cause the Heat problems and the Bucks rank 5th in the league in that category.  Milwaukee is also the 2nd best offensive rebounding team partly because they are the 3rd worst shooting team in the NBA.  More missed shots mean more rebounds but thankfully for the Heat they have the best shooting percentage by a large margin at 49%.  That's the team matchup but I want to know who's going to guard LeBron James, the likely regular season MVP.  Marquis Daniels, Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Dunleavy will all get their shot but will they be able to at least slow him down, probably not.  The Bucks leading scorer Monta Ellis struggled in each of the four meetings, scoring double-digits only once.  Milwaukee needs more from him and consistency from Brandon Jennings, both can fill it up but also miss a lot.  But let's face it, Miami has been on a roll the second half of the year going 37-3 since the beginning of February.  LBJ, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Co. should have little trouble disposing the Bucks.

Prediction: Heat in 4

2 New York Knicks (54-28) vs 7 Boston Celtics (41-40)

One of the oldest rivalries in the game is renewed when the New York Knicks meet the Boston Celtics.  With the city of Boston dealing with the recent tragedy of the Boston Marathon bombings it might give the Celtics the edge they need to make this series interesting.  The Celtics lost Rajon Rondo 38 games into the season and have been dealing with more injuries as of late.  Kevin Garnett has been tending to a sore ankle the last few weeks and should serve as an integral part of this series.  The Knicks like to play small-ball and if KG can take advantage on the boards and in the post he could be the x-factor.  But the Paul Pierce-Carmelo Anthony matchup is what we need to keep our eye on.  Anthony went on a torrid pace to rip the scoring title away from Kevin Durant down the stretch and this might be his best chance to make the NBA Finals.  But never sleep of Paul Pierce.  The Truth (one of the best nicknames ever) has been in this situation plenty of times and always seems to step up.  Pierce is one player that can slow Melo down on defense while causing him trouble on the offensive end.  But with that being said I feel the Knicks have too much fire power with the emergence of J.R. Smith and Tyson Chandler coming back from injury.  It should be a good series but Boston will have trouble keeping up with the New York offense.

Prediction: Knicks in 6

3 Indiana Pacers (49-32) vs 6 Atlanta Hawks (44-38)

These two teams split their four meetings this year with the home team winning each game and I see more of the same in the playoffs.  Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league holding opponents to 90.7 points per game, good for second fewest, and are also one of the biggest.  Their front line of Roy Hibbert (7'2), David West (6'9), and Paul George (6'8) causes matchup problems for almost any team in the NBA.  George and George Hill are also two of the most improved players this year, both benefiting from more playing time.  After the loss of Danny Granger to injury, George was put in a similar role and flourished with 17.4 points and 7.6 rebounds a game.  As for Hill, the departure of Darren Collison opened the door for him to put up his best numbers of 14.2 points and 4.7 assists.  The Atlanta Hawks saw Joe Johnson leave for Brooklyn which led to Jeff Teague and Al Horford having their best seasons.  Teague finished with 14.6 points and 7.2 assists while Horford averaged his first double-double with 17.4 and 10.2 boards.  These teams are very similar, both are big and both have seen players step up in new roles.  As with all Hawks games the x-factor for them is their leading scorer Josh Smith.  He is a great player but finds himself on the perimeter too often when he should be in the post.  Also, depending if the Hawks decide to put him on West or George his defense is going to be key if Atlanta wants to win.  In the end Indiana's defense and rebounding will determine who advances.  The Hawks will put up a fight but the Pacers will move on.

Prediction: Pacers in 7

4 Brooklyn Nets (49-33) vs 5 Chicago Bulls (45-37)

After missing the playoffs a year ago while playing in New Jersey, the Nets made the move to Brooklyn and secured home court advantage against the Chicago Bulls.  Deron Williams is one of the best point guards in the NBA and Brook Lopez is one of the best center's nobody really talks about.  Williams' numbers are slightly down from previous years (18.9 points and 7.7 assists) but is still capable of carrying a team.  Lopez had a solid year with 19.4 and 6.9 boards while Reggie Evans dominated the glass in the late stages of the season.  Evans put up Dennis Rodman like numbers the last two months averaging over 15 rebounds a game and he had nine games of 20-plus throughout the year.  But how much better would this series be if Derrick Rose was back from his ACL injury.  It was in the first game of the playoffs a year ago when Rose went down and you could hear the entire city of Chicago hold their breath.  He still is not ready to return and he shouldn't at this point.  It's more important for him, and the Bulls organization, that he does not come back until fully healed.  The Bulls have had other injury problems as well with Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich, Richard Hamilton and Taj Gibson all missing a significant time.  The biggest question mark is Noah.  The energy and defense he brings to this team is hard to replace.  With Noah on the court he provides a stopper to Lopez in the post but him being able to play is still up in the air.  Honestly, I haven't been impressed with the Nets at all this year.  I think Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace are at the tail end of their careers and will have trouble with Luol Deng and the young upstart Jimmy Butler.  Noah is a significant piece to the puzzle but I still think the Bulls will pull this out in a gritty battle.

Prediction: Bulls in 6

Early NBA MVP Race

     We are a little past the midway point in the NBA season and a few weeks away from the All-Star break so it's time to take a look at the MVP race.  The last five years the debate has been dominated by LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, with Derrick Rose winning two years ago and Kevin Durant's name coming into the mix last year.

     Until a few weeks ago there were multiple guys that you could make an argument for to win the MVP.  But injuries have taken Chris Paul and Tim Duncan out of the conversation.  Paul has missed nine straight games and 12 out of the last 14 for the Clippers.  Paul still ranks second in assists (9.7) and first in steals (2.56) but his Clippers have dropped six of the last nine he's been out.  As for Duncan, he's missed six of the last eight for the Spurs due to a sore left knee and now a sprained ankle.  Timmy has his best numbers over the past three seasons (17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.7 blocks) but even with him out of the lineup the Spurs have been able to run their winning streak to eleven.

     Let's first talk about Kobe and my question is where are all of his fans?  The past five years, Kobe fans have been loud and proud saying that he is the best player in the league, but this year they've been quiet.  That's mainly in part because his team is currently four games under .500 but his numbers are no different than any of the last five season.  Actually you can make the argument that they are better because he has a higher field goal percentage at 46% and more assists at 5.3.  But still nothing from the little mambas.  And the argument about Kobe being better because he has more rings than other players is the worst argument to make.  Rings don't make one player better than another.  If that was the case here is a list of all the players better than Kobe (who has 5 rings) with how many rings they've won.  Bill Russell (11), Sam Jones (10), John Havlicek (8), Tom Heinson (8), K.C. Jones (8), Tom Sanders (8), Robert Horry (7), Frank Ramsey (7), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar(6), Bob Cousy (6), Michael Jordan (6), Jim Loscutoff (6), Scottie Pippen (6).

     Now on to the actual MVP candidates.  Like I said earlier, Tim Duncan and Chris Paul have been playing great for title contending teams but their recent injuries have knocked them out of the top three.  So, Carmelo Anthony has moved into that spot as he's guided the New York Knicks to a 31-16 record and second place in the Eastern Conference.  The Knicks are one the surprise teams this year as they only managed to finish seventh in the East last season, Melo's first full season with the team.  In the first game this year, NY smashed the defending champions Miami Heat 104-84 behind Anthony's 30 points and 10 boards.  We weren't sure if it was a fluke but it became a trend as the Knicks have consistently won.  Carmelo himself is having his best scoring season since 2006-07 with Denver as he is second in the league at 28.5.  His field goal percentage is only at 45% but that is partly because he's taking 6.6 three pointers per game but he is shooting a career best 41.5% from distance.

     Coming in at #2 is Kevin Durant.  Durant is making the strongest case of his career for MVP as he's leading the league is scoring for the fourth straight season.  He is undoubtedly the best scorer and offensive player in the league.  This year he is on pace to be the only player ever to lead the league in scoring while shooting 50% from the field (51.7), 40% from three (42.2), and 90% from the free throw line (90.2).  Aside from all that offense he's averaging 7.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and over a block and steal per game.  All of this while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to the second best record in the league at 37-12, only behind San Antonio.  The fact of him putting up those offensive numbers and his team challenging for the best record in the league makes him a top candidate.  By the end of the year, Durant could very well come out as the MVP and I would have no problem at all with it.  His efficiency on the offensive end has been amazing to watch and he's improved his game every year he's been in the league.  If he doesn't get it this year, he definitely will sometime in the near future.

     My MVP right now though, is LeBron James.  LeBron has won three of the last four MVP awards and if you thought his numbers were good in those years, this season they are even better.  He's fourth in scoring at 26.8, pulling down a career best 8.2 rebounds, and dishing out 7.0 assists.  He's also leading the league in Player Efficiency Rating while shooting 55.6% from the field and 40.8% from deep, both career highs.  LeBron has steadily improved since joining the Heat but he does so many great things on the basketball court every night that we almost take it for granted.  He's the only player in the league to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals.  He has the Heat in first place in the East at 32-14, positioned to make a run at a third straight NBA Finals appearance.  One thing I know is that voters like to share the wealth, they don't like voting for the same guy every year.  It's even less likely when Durant might do something for the first time in the history of the NBA.  But a good question to ask your self, if we are voting for the Most Valuable Player, which team would still be contending if these players were taken off their respective squads?  I would have to say OKC is more likely to still be in the mix.  I'll definitely take Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and Kevin Martin over Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen.  It's really hard for me to make this call because Durant is my favorite player to watch and I'll never be a fan of LeBron after what he did to the Pistons in the 2007 playoffs.  It's kind of like Michael Jordan, I'll never cheer for the guy but I totally respect his game.  And ultimately, right now my vote goes to LBJ.