2013 NFL Season Totals and Pick'em Results

With the 2013 NFL regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start let's take a look at how we did with our predictions for the season totals.

2013 NFL Season Totals	Line	Projected	Actual
Arizona Cardinals	5.5 (o -180)	6	10
Atlanta Falcons	9.5 (o -145)	10	4
Baltimore Ravens	8.5 (o +115)	9	8
Buffalo Bills	6 (u -120)	4	6
Carolina Panthers	7.5 (u +115)	6	12
Chicago Bears	8.5 (u +120)	7	7
Cincinnati Bengals	8.5 (o -200)	9	11
Cleveland Browns	6.5 (u +135)	5	4
Dallas Cowboys	8.5 (u +110)	8	8
Denver Broncos	12	12	13
Detroit Lions	8.5 (u -115)	7	7
Green Bay Packers	10.5 (o -105)	11	8
Houston Texans	10.5 (o -110)	12	2
Indianapolis Colts	8.5 (u -115)	7	11
Jacksonville Jaguars	5 (u -130)	4	4
Kansas City Chiefs	7.5 (o -175)	8	11
Miami Dolphins	7.5 (u +125)	6	8
Minnesota Vikings	7 (u -125)	6	6
New England Patriots	11 (o +110)	12	12
New Orleans Saints	9.5 (u +110)	9	11
New York Giants	8.5 (u even)	8	7
New York Jets	6 (u -170)	4	8
Oakland Raiders	5 (u -185)	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	7.5 (u -130)	6	10
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.5 (o +140)	10	8
San Diego Chargers	7.5 (u -155)	5	9
San Francisco 49ers	11	11	11
Seattle Seahawks	10.5 (o -130)	13	14
St Louis Rams	7.5 (u -110)	5	7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.5 (u +105)	6	4
Tennessee Titans	6.5 (u -110)	6	7
Washington Redskins	8.5 (u -110)	8	3

Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line).  The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals.  However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.

To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line.  Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost.  I used $20 as my base bet.  If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20.  Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.

                                               Win/Loss     Correct Picks     Wrong Picks     PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals     $234.00               48                        33                  4

2013 Pick'em Totals               $258.00              135                      111                10


Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away.  I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks.  Here are those numbers.

	2013 Season Totals
Fav Cover	122
Dog Cover	119
Home Cover	133
Road Cover	112
Home/Fav Cover	85
Road/Dog Cover	73
Home/Dog Cover	44
Road/Fav Cover	36

This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out.  Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally.  To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook.  This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.

NFL Week 17 Pick'em

Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money.  Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it.  The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick.  However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason.  For the last time, let's get it.


SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Packers -3 over BEARS     Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.

Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS    Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.

STEELERS -7 over Browns     Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.

PATRIOTS -7 over Bills     NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.

VIKINGS PK over Lions     Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.


Other NFL 

FALCONS +6 over Panthers     Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.

TITANS -7 over Texans     Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.

Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS     Defending champs won't go down easy.

COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars     Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.

COWBOYS +7 over Eagles     Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.

Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS     Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.

SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs     Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.

Broncos -10 over RAIDERS     Peyton setting records, will run up the score.

CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers     Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.

Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS     KC playing backups, will still cover.

SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams     Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.


SuperContest
Last Week:  4-1
Season Total:  43-33-4

Overall
Last Week:  10-5-1
Season Total:  124-107-8

NFL Week 16 Pick'em

Our second strong week in a row has a in position to finish the year with a little bit of extra money in our pockets.  The trip to Las Vegas was a little bit of a success but it was horrible watching my Detroit Lions lose on a 61-yard FG to the Ravens 18-16.  The Cowboys had their end of the year meltdown as well with the Packers rallying from 23-points down to win 37-36.  Arizona almost gave me a heart attack giving up 17 points in the final 3:12 to the Titans but pulled it out in OT 37-34.  And I can't forget to mention the day Jamaal Charles had combining for 215 yards and five touchdowns propelling many fantasy teams in the finals and bouncing two of my teams out of the playoffs.  We still haven't had a losing SuperContest week since Week 7 but we haven't gained much ground as we've been going back and forth between 3-2 and 2-2-1.  This week there are many teams that are trying to stay in the playoff hunt.  No teams in the NFC have clinched their division yet and three teams are still competing in the NFC North.  Time to get in the holiday spirit and get some extra cash for more presents!

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

PANTHERS -3 over Saints     Carolina wants revenge and Saints completely different on the road.

RAMS -3.5 over Bucs     Rams carry momentum from Saints win against hapless Bucs.

Browns +2 over JETS     Browns D will force TO's from Jets rookie Smith.

Steelers +1 over PACKERS     Pittsburgh trying to crawl back into playoff picture.

Giants +9 over LIONS     Lions have lost 8 straight games in December and January.


Other NFL

Dolphins -3 over BILLS     Miami still fighting for playoffs, Bills struggled against JAX.

REDSKINS +3 over Cowboys     Cousins has Skins competing, should get win at home.

EAGLES -3 over Bears     Foles and Eagles will shine on Sunday night.

CHIEFS -6.5 over Colts     KC is dominating again and Charles tough to stop.

BENGALS -7.5 over Vikings     Bengals 5th best D will be the difference.

Broncos -10.5 over TEXANS     Not picking Texans again with 2-10-2 ATS record.

JAGUARS +4 over Titans     Don't know why I've picked Jacksonville so much this year.

Cardinals +10.5 over SEAHAWKS     Arizona will be best team to not make the playoffs.

Raiders +10 over CHARGERS     Jennings been playing well, could keep OAK in it.

Patriots PK over RAVENS     Ravens not as good as record shows.

49ERS -13.5 over Falcons     Last game in Candlestick will be a blowout.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  39-32-4

Overall
Last Week:  11-5
Season Total:  114-102-7

NFL Week 15 Pick'em

After a solid 12-4 last week we crept back above .500 with three weeks left.  We watched the first week of snow games and I was surprised how many points were scored.  Calvin Johnson turned into the abominable snowman but the Lions couldn't stop LeSean McCoy as he rushed for an Eagles franchise record 217 yards and Philly won 34-20 thanks to 28 fourth quarter points.  In the big game of the week, San Francisco squeaked by Seattle 19-17.  In the wildest finishes, New England scored 13 points in the final 1:01 with the help of an onside kick and a Billy Cundiff missed last second 58-yard field goal to edge the Browns.  Also, after sleep walking through most of the game the Vikings and Ravens came alive in the final 2:05 scoring five combined touchdowns, but Baltimore had the last laugh with a Marlon Brown TD reception for the 29-26 win.  I'm really excited for this week as I'll be in Las Vegas for the games.  Hopefully I'll be able to turn these picks into some real money!

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Cardinals -2.5 over TITANS     Cardinals 5-1 in last six, Titans 1-4 in last five.

COLTS -5.5 over Texans     Houston doesn't care anymore.

JAGUARS +2.5 over Bills     Jags extend 3 game win streak at home.

Patriots -1 over DOLPHINS      Tom Brady will show us he can win without Gronk.

Chiefs -4.5 over RAIDERS     KC getting back to dominance over bad teams.


Other NFL

Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS     Let's go with that Peyton struggles in cold theory again.

Redskins +6.5 over FALCONS     Starting Cousins is the best move Skins made all year.

49ers -5.5 over BUCS     SF rides momentum of Seattle win.

RAMS +5.5 over Saints     Rams a solid home team, Saints a bad road team.

GIANTS +6.5 over Seahawks     Brown keeps NY in if Eli doesn't throw them out.

Bears PK over BROWNS     Starting Cutler a bad decision but Browns are bad.

Eagles -4.5 over VIKINGS     No Peterson for Vikes and Foles should put up points.

PANTHERS -11 over Jets     Jets will have a hard time scoring in Carolina.

Packers +7 over COWBOYS     It's December, time for a Tony Romo collapse.

STEELERS +3 over Bengals     I'll take Pittsburgh at home in primetime.

Ravens +6 over LIONS     6 too much for defending champs, Stafford starting to slip.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  36-30-4

Overall
Last Week:  12-4
Season Total:  103-97-7

NFL Week 14 Pick'em

After a 4-11-1 record last week, for the first time all year we are under .500 overall.  Not a good feeling.  The SuperContest is still decent as we split again at 2-2-1.  We saw some teams flex their muscle as Denver overcame an early deficit to take down the Chiefs for the second time in three weeks and Seattle proved they are the team to beat in the NFC, blowing out the Saints 34-7.  We also saw Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin, not only affect the game but also the betting outcome.  Tomlin was clearly where he shouldn't be on the field, you can tell he knew what he was doing by his wry smile after the play.  He ended up getting in the way of Jacoby Jones, who would have been gone for a touchdown on a punt return.  Baltimore had to settle for a field goal and missed covering by one point.  This week we have two games that feature division rivals when New Orleans hosts Carolina and Seattle travels to San Francisco.  These are going to be the hardest to call but let's get into it.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

JAGUARS +3 over Texans     Jags playing better and are at home in primetime.

Chiefs -3 over REDSKINS     KC defense too good for RG3.

STEELERS -3 over Dolphins     Big Ben is putting up points, while D coming around.

Titans +12 over BRONCOS     Too cold for Peyton, CJ2K keeps it close.

CHARGERS -3 over Giants     I have no faith in Eli on the road.


Other NFL

Vikings +7 over RAVENS     Baltimore hasn't blown too many teams out this year.

PATRIOTS -10 over Browns     Browns can't keep up with Brady.

Raiders +3 over JETS     NYJ have hit a nasty wall since beating Saints.

BENGALS -6.5 over Colts     Red Rocket goes off against bad D.

SAINTS -3 over Panthers     Saints find offense at home to stop Panthers win streak.

EAGLES -3 over Lions     Foles has offense on point, Stafford throwing too many INT's.

BUCS -2.5 over Bills     Buffalo struggles on the road, 1-4 ATS.

CARDINALS -6.5 over Rams     Arizona at home and Palmer finally looks good.

Seahawks +3 over 49ERS     Seattle rides momentum from stomping of Saints.

Falcons +3 over PACKERS     Green Bay 0-5 ATS since Rodgers went out.

BEARS PK over Cowboys     McCown clicking with Jeffery, let's see if defense shows up.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  33-28-4

Overall
Last Week:  4-11-1
Season Total:  91-93-7

NFL Week 13 Pick'em

Well, it feels good to get rid of that losing streak.  We had a nice 9-5 overall week but the SuperContest picks could have been better than 3-2 (thanks a lot Panthers).  The New England Patriots had a huge comeback win over the Denver Broncos 34-31 in OT.  Tom Brady's offense was lost in the first half falling behind 24-0.  However, he rallied his team to score 31 straight points.  But, it was a muffed punt in overtime that set up the Patriots for the game winning field goal.  This wasn't the only game to go into OT either as Minnesota and Green Bay played to a tie.  This was the second tie in two years.  Each team scored a field goal on their first possession of the extra time but couldn't score again.  I think they need to get rid of ties in the NFL altogether but a debate for another time.  We'll stick with our shorter breakdowns again this week because we all know that gamblers are superstitious and like to stay with what works.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

EAGLES -3 over Cardinals     Foles has Eagles hot and coming off bye.

CHARGERS -1 over Bengals     Chargers solid at home, Bengals struggle on the road.

VIKINGS PK over Bears     Bears can't stop run, Peterson runs wild

BILLS -3 over Falcons     Atlanta having all kinds of trouble.

Jaguars +7 over BROWNS     Jags playing better and Weedon back as starter for Browns.


Other NFL

Packers +6.5 over LIONS     Remember what happened last time Matt Flynn started against Detroit?

Raiders +9.5 over COWBOYS     Raiders control pace with Jennings ground game.

RAVENS -3 over Steelers     Steelers playing well but Ravens tough at home.

Titans +4 over COLTS     Titans 5-0 ATS away, Colts reeling.

CHIEFS +4.5 over Broncos     KC has been waiting to get revenge.

Bucs +8 over PANTHERS     Bucs on 3 game win streak, stay within two scores.

JETS -1.5 over Dolphins     Can't figure out Jets, let's try'em again.

49ERS -8 over Rams     SF Defense too much for Rams possibly without Zac Stacy.

Patriots -7.5 over TEXANS     Texans 0-6 ATS at home, biggest disappointment in NFL.

REDSKINS +1 over Giants     Both teams suck, go with who's at home.

Saints +5.5 over SEAHAWKS     Brees and offense will keep it close.


SuperContest
Last Week:  3-2
Season Total:  31-26-3

Overall
Last Week:  9-5
Season Total:  87-82-6

NFL Week 12 Pick'em

This is not good.  We can't seem to shake this funk and get any traction.  We continue to barely hold our heads above water in the SuperContest.  But, we are still within striking distance of a decent year and with a few good weeks to end the season we could end up with some profit.  In the big game last week the Broncos beat the undefeated Chiefs 27-17.  This week all eyes will be on Denver again when they head to New England.  I also think I need to change things up this week as we'll have all games with ten words or less breakdowns.  Maybe that will bring us home the goods.

SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Bucs +9 over LIONS     Glennon has been getting better each week.

CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers     KC picks themselves back up after first loss.

RAMS -1.5 over Bears     Rams off bye, Cutler still out.

Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS     Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts     Don't sleep on the Cards at home.


Other NFL in 10 or less

FALCONS +7.5 over Saints     I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.

Jaguars +10 over TEXANS     Guess I'll take the points if I have to.

Vikings +4 over PACKERS     Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.

BROWNS -2 over Steelers     Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.

RAVENS -3.5 over Jets     Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.

RAIDERS +1 over Titans     Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.

GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys     Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.

PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos     Remember Patriots-Saints?  Same thing here.

49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS     Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.


SuperContest
Last Week:  2-2-1
Season Total:  28-24-3

Overall
Last Week:  5-8-2
Season Total:  78-77-6