After four long weeks we finally had a winning week in the SuperContest with a 4-1 record in Week 5. We saw some great games last week with the Browns rallying from 25 down on the road to beat the Titans, two overtime games where New Orleans and Dallas came out on top, and my Detroit Lions finding a new way to lose. The Lions K Alex Henery missed 3 FGs including a 50-yarder with 21 seconds left which in turn lead to the Bills K Dan Carpenter hitting a GW 58-yard FG of his own. Henery has since been cut and Detroit signed former Broncos K Matt Prater, which makes it 3 kickers in 6 weeks. This week is very interesting betting wise with 8 home/dogs out of 15 games. The means small lines and tougher games pick. But we gotta do, what we gotta do.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BROWNS -1.5 over Steelers
After their huge comeback against the Titans last week, Cleveland is looking to get on the plus side of .500 in a big rivalry game. RB Ben Tate saw his first action since a Week 1 injury and played great rushing for 124 yards on 24 carries. This is a good sign for a team usually known for its defense but who is struggling on that side of the ball this year. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in total defense after being in the top 10 in 2013. However, they've made up for it with the play of QB Brian Hoyer. In Week 1 Hoyer almost lead the Browns back from a 24-point half time deficit against these Steelers only to see Pittsburgh win on a last second FG. This time the Browns won't get down so big, so early and take the win.
FALCONS -3 over Bears
Atlanta can't wait to get back home. After going winless on their two game road trip the Falcons will look to get back on track against the Bears. Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be the biggest beneficiary of returning to the Georgia Dome as he has thrown 6 TDs and 0 INTs at home and 5 TDs with 6 INTs on the road. As for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, who was recently compared to retired QB Jeff George by Brian Billick on "Mike and Mike", threw 2 bad interceptions last week against the Panthers and lost the game down the stretch 31-24. Atlanta WR Devin Hester will also be looking to show out against his old team the same way Steve Smith did in Week 3 against Carolina. Atlanta takes this one.
Patriots -3 over BILLS
Note to self...don't bet against Brady's Pats as home/dogs. Last week I doubted New England, and Brady, and it cost me a 5-0 SC record. I've learned my lesson and the rest of the league took notice that the Pats aren't finished yet. New England waxed the then undefeated Bengals 43-17 and will now take on a 3-2 Bills team that barely escaped a loss in Detroit. This is a big game for both teams as they are tied atop the AFC East and that's why I see the Pats taking it. They knew last week it was a turning point in the season if they won and now that they have they take control on their division.
Cowboys +8 over SEAHAWKS
The Dallas Cowboys are the surprise team of the NFL with a 4-1 record and DeMarco Murray is the surprise player leading the league in rushing. Don't get me wrong, Seattle is the better team but Dallas' running game is what will keep it close. The Seahawks lead league in rushing defense but are yet to face a formidable attack. Their first four game have been against teams ranked in the bottom 20 in rushing. Seattle's defense has been good but not great this season as they've only forced 3 turnovers thus far, although Dallas is one of the more turnover prone teams (but so was Washington who had 0 TOs last week). Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also been a better game manager as of late with an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Seattle wins but Dallas covers.
RAMS +3.5 over 49ers Austin Davis putting up numbers
St. Louis has had a rough season even before it actually started with QB Sam Bradford going down for the year and their defense not living up to their expectations. But ever since QB Austin Davis has been inserted in to the starting lineup in Week 2 they have been competitive and are 2-1 ATS. In his last two games Davis has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners are 3-2 overall but only 1-4 ATS. Their defense ranks 2nd in the league and all the signs are pointing to San Francisco taking this game but they have been keeping their opponents within striking distance.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TEXANS Texans don't have D to stop Luck
JETS +10 over Broncos Only because of double digit home/dog
TITANS -5 over Jaguars Even if Whitehurst starts since Jags are embarrassing
DOLPHINS +3.5 over Packers Miami decent at home and defense is in top 10
Lions -1.5 over VIKINGS Lions finally have a kicker, can now win close games
Panthers +6.5 over BENGALS No AJ Green limits Cincy's scoring ability
Ravens -3 over BUCS Despite last week, Ravens offense playing well
RAIDERS +7 over Chargers New coach, 2 weeks rest, rivarly, SD first ATS loss
Redskins +3.5 over CARDINALS Logan Thomas will struggle too much for Arizona
EAGLES -3 over Giants Gonna be a shootout and no Jennings for NYG
SuperContest
Last Week: 4-1
Season Total: 11-14
Overall
Last Week: 7-8
Season Total: 34-42
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
2014 NFL Week 5 Pick'em
Once you get in a hole it's hard to dig yourself out. We are still 6 games below .500 in the SuperContest and 7 overall. Last week we saw that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are a shell of their former selves and it doesn't get any better this week with the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals coming to town after a bye week. Also, the New Orleans Saints are having their troubles on the road as they are now 1-3 after getting trounced in Dallas 38-17. Speaking of Dallas, RB DeMarco Murray is setting the league on fire right now with 4 straight games of 100+ yards and 1 TD to open the season. This week the two games I'm looking forward to watching are the Patriots-Bengals and Cardinals-Broncos. Can the Brady Bunch bounce back against a good Cincy team? How will Arizona and Denver matchup after both coming off byes? Let's dig it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Browns +2 over TITANS
The Cleveland Browns are 1-2 and every game has been decided on a last second field goal. They have shown they have the ability to play with good teams, they just need to find a way to close out games. Brian Hoyer hasn't been spectacular but he doesn't make mistakes and is yet to have a turnover. WR Andrew Hawkins has stepped up nicely in the absence of the suspended Josh Gordon and the running game could see the return of RB Ben Tate this week. Tennessee could also have QB Jake Locker back after missing last week with a wrist injury. That will help because after starting the season with a win, the Titans have lost 3 straight by a combined 100-34. Tennessee is bad on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 5 on offense and defense in the NFL. Take the Brownies coming off the bye week.
COLTS -3.5 over Ravens
Colts QB Andrew Luck is on of the hottest players in the NFL right now. Through 4 games he has thrown for 1,305 yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Fantasy owners are loving this guy. Indy should be 3-1 right now if not for a second half collapse against Philadelphia. They have won their last 2 games by a combined 85-34 albeit against Jacksonville and a banged up Tennessee team. They are going up against a good Baltimore squad that just easily handled Carolina 38-10. That was a very emotional game for the Ravens as newly acquired WR Steve Smith spent his first 13 seasons with the Panthers. I feel Baltimore will regress this week after such a big win and being on the road. They had a hard time in Cleveland in Week 3, needing a last second field goal to win. The Colts are rolling and are tough to keep up with at home.
Chiefs +6 over 49ERS
After starting the year with a bad home loss to Tennessee, Kansas City has bounced back nicely playing Denver close and blowing out Miami and New England. The NFL is now a league of running back by committee and the Chiefs have found a great compliment to RB Jamaal Charles in RB Knile Davis. After Charles went down in Week 1, Davis averaged 106 rushing yards over the next 3 weeks. Now with Charles back in the lineup, they create a devastating 1-2 punch. For the Niners, QB Colin Kaepernick has been very inconsistent. Their defense is starting to play better, giving up 0 offensive point to a potent Philly offense last week, but so is the Chiefs D. San Francisco probably wins, but KC covers.
CHARGERS -6.5 over Jets
San Diego is one of only two teams undefeated against the spread. This week they welcome a New York Jets team that has quite a bit of controversy around it's quarterback. Last week following a 24-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Jets QB Geno Smith had a few choice words for the crowd while exiting the field. As you would expect, that didn't sit well with New York fans. Not only has Smith had a bad year with 6 turnovers in 4 games and a QBR of only 27.6, now he's getting into it with fans. The big question for NYJ now is when will they turn the reigns over to Michael Vick? As for the Chargers QB Philip Rivers, he is off to a great start with 9 TDs and 1 INT while having his highest career ratings in QBR (82.5) and Passer Rating (114.5). Turnovers will be the deciding factor in this game. San Diego is tied for second in the NFL with a +5 TO differential and New York is tied for last with -5. Smith makes too many mistakes and Rivers doesn't.
Bengals -1 over PATRIOTS
It's always hard to comprehend when great teams or players have turned bad. It's like you never think it's going to happen. But that's what we are coming to realize about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last Monday night in a 41-14 smackdown in Kansas City, we saw Brady have one of his worst QBR's (11.6) while running for his life behind a weak offensive line. He even said it himself, this offense can't perform at a high level. It turns out, trading his best O-lineman (Logan Mankins) for a backup TE (Tim Wright) who has 3 receptions in 4 games, might not have been the best idea. The Bengals on the other hand are still not getting the recognition they should as one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 3-0 and coming off a bye with a defense that averages a NFL best 11.0 ppg against. Cincinnati will also be getting back LB Vontaze Burfict, who led the league in tackles a year ago. Not to mention, RB Giovani Bernard is proving he's a good dual threat back. The line does seem a little fishy but it looks like the Pats will have another loss in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
PACKERS -8 over Vikings Pack found rhythm, return of TNF blowouts
Bears +2.5 over PANTHERS Chicago better on the road than at home
Rams +7 over EAGLES Rams D will show up after bye and Shady struggling
GIANTS -4 over Falcons Eli actually playing well, Atlanta has no defense
SAINTS -10 over Bucs Brees goes off at home, another blowout loss for Bucs
COWBOYS -6 over Texans Dallas rides high after New Orleans win
LIONS -7 over Bills Kyle Orton no better than Manuel, Bills still stink
JAGUARS +6 over Steelers I have to pick one, let's take home/dog Bortles
Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS Defense keeps Arizona within a touchdown
REDSKINS +7 over Seahawks Washington only team ranking top 10 in offense and defense
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-3
Season Total: 7-13
Overall
Last Week: 7-6
Season Total: 27-34
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