Well, it feels good to get rid of that losing streak. We had a nice 9-5 overall week but the SuperContest picks could have been better than 3-2 (thanks a lot Panthers). The New England Patriots had a huge comeback win over the Denver Broncos 34-31 in OT. Tom Brady's offense was lost in the first half falling behind 24-0. However, he rallied his team to score 31 straight points. But, it was a muffed punt in overtime that set up the Patriots for the game winning field goal. This wasn't the only game to go into OT either as Minnesota and Green Bay played to a tie. This was the second tie in two years. Each team scored a field goal on their first possession of the extra time but couldn't score again. I think they need to get rid of ties in the NFL altogether but a debate for another time. We'll stick with our shorter breakdowns again this week because we all know that gamblers are superstitious and like to stay with what works.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
EAGLES -3 over Cardinals Foles has Eagles hot and coming off bye.
CHARGERS -1 over Bengals Chargers solid at home, Bengals struggle on the road.
VIKINGS PK over Bears Bears can't stop run, Peterson runs wild
BILLS -3 over Falcons Atlanta having all kinds of trouble.
Jaguars +7 over BROWNS Jags playing better and Weedon back as starter for Browns.
Other NFL
Packers +6.5 over LIONS Remember what happened last time Matt Flynn started against Detroit?
Raiders +9.5 over COWBOYS Raiders control pace with Jennings ground game.
RAVENS -3 over Steelers Steelers playing well but Ravens tough at home.
Titans +4 over COLTS Titans 5-0 ATS away, Colts reeling.
CHIEFS +4.5 over Broncos KC has been waiting to get revenge.
Bucs +8 over PANTHERS Bucs on 3 game win streak, stay within two scores.
JETS -1.5 over Dolphins Can't figure out Jets, let's try'em again.
49ERS -8 over Rams SF Defense too much for Rams possibly without Zac Stacy.
Patriots -7.5 over TEXANS Texans 0-6 ATS at home, biggest disappointment in NFL.
REDSKINS +1 over Giants Both teams suck, go with who's at home.
Saints +5.5 over SEAHAWKS Brees and offense will keep it close.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 31-26-3
Overall
Last Week: 9-5
Season Total: 87-82-6
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
NFL Week 12 Pick'em
This is not good. We can't seem to shake this funk and get any traction. We continue to barely hold our heads above water in the SuperContest. But, we are still within striking distance of a decent year and with a few good weeks to end the season we could end up with some profit. In the big game last week the Broncos beat the undefeated Chiefs 27-17. This week all eyes will be on Denver again when they head to New England. I also think I need to change things up this week as we'll have all games with ten words or less breakdowns. Maybe that will bring us home the goods.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Bucs +9 over LIONS Glennon has been getting better each week.
CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers KC picks themselves back up after first loss.
RAMS -1.5 over Bears Rams off bye, Cutler still out.
Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts Don't sleep on the Cards at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS +7.5 over Saints I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.
Jaguars +10 over TEXANS Guess I'll take the points if I have to.
Vikings +4 over PACKERS Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.
RAIDERS +1 over Titans Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.
GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.
PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos Remember Patriots-Saints? Same thing here.
49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 28-24-3
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-2
Season Total: 78-77-6
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Bucs +9 over LIONS Glennon has been getting better each week.
CHIEFS -4.5 over Chargers KC picks themselves back up after first loss.
RAMS -1.5 over Bears Rams off bye, Cutler still out.
Panthers -4.5 over DOLPHINS Rolling with hottest team in the NFL.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts Don't sleep on the Cards at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
FALCONS +7.5 over Saints I'll take more than a TD in a rivalry game.
Jaguars +10 over TEXANS Guess I'll take the points if I have to.
Vikings +4 over PACKERS Tolzien has looked horrible, can't trust GB til Rodgers returns.
BROWNS -2 over Steelers Pittsburgh has been a bad road team.
RAVENS -3.5 over Jets Rice finally showed up, while Jets looked abysmal last week.
RAIDERS +1 over Titans Jennings running well and McGloin looked solid.
GIANTS -2.5 over Cowboys Giants seem to be heading in the right direction.
PATRIOTS +1.5 over Broncos Remember Patriots-Saints? Same thing here.
49ers -5.5 over REDSKINS Niners come out strong after 2-game slide.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 28-24-3
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-2
Season Total: 78-77-6
Sunday, November 17, 2013
NFL Week 11 Pick'em
We are officially in danger mode as we have entered to red in both the SuperContest and overall. Because of sportsbooks taking what is known as "juice" a bettor must win around 54% to make a profit. Right now we are exactly at 52% for the SuperContest and 50% overall. Last week the Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season, on the road in Tennessee. A game I'm sure knocked a lot of people out of their survival pools. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also got their first win on Monday night against a Miami Dolphins team that is still all sorts of messed up. The big game on the slate this week is the Denver Broncos hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Nobody expected KC to be the lone undefeated team left but we'll see what they, as this defense, are made of on Sunday night. Let's get it.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
BUCS -1 over Falcons
Tampa Bay is coming off their first win and Mike Glennon has taken care of the ball as of late. In his last four games he's thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. Mike James was also playing great but went down an ankle injury for the rest of the year. But even with that, they still will have the upper hand over the Atlanta Falcons who have only averaged 11 point per game over their last three. The Falcons offense has been hit bad with the injury bug as Julio Jones is out for the year, Roddy White can't get healthy, and now Tony Gonzalez questionable with a toe injury. Atlanta has a 1-6 record in the past seven weeks, with that lone win coming against the Bucs. This week will be different though as Tampa has new found momentum after taking the Seahawks to OT on the road and getting their first win against Miami.
Jets -1 over BILLS
I am finally coming around on the Jets. They are 6-3 ATS this year but I've been hating all year. NYJ is coming off their bye and heading to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has lost their last three SU and ATS. Buffalo has been shuffling three different QB's in those three games as Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and EJ Manuel all came up short. This week Manuel will be back under center again but will be without #1 WR Steve Johnson. The Jets have alternated wins and losses all year. Every win has came in an odd week and because of their bye in week 10 this means they will get the W in week 11 against the Bills...right?
EAGLES -5 over Redskins
The Eagles are 0-10 in their last ten home games dating back to last year. Yes, I said HOME games. This is the perfect time to buck that trend when the Washington Redskins come to Philly and bring the second worst defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 ppg. Nick Foles is the hottest QB right now after throwing 10 TD's in his last two games, including seven against Oakland two weeks ago. He's still yet to throw an INT and I don't see one coming against the porous Redskins defense. Look for Foles and Shady McCoy to dominate the air and the ground as there is no way they can lose 11 straight at home.
Chargers -1.5 over DOLPHINS
San Diego has done a lot of traveling lately as this will be their third time heading to the east coast in four weeks. They've already beaten Jacksonville and were screwed on a Danny Woodhead touchdown that was overturned in those first two games. Luckily for the Chargers it will be a 4:00pm start time this week when they visit the disheveled Dolphins. Miami is still reeling from the Incognito-Martin fallout and are 1-5 in the last six. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been very inconsistent in his last four, throwing seven touchdowns and five picks. San Diego is still in the playoff hunt and right now are behind the Dolphins. This is a big game for both teams but only the Chargers are going in the right direction.
SAINTS -3 over 49ers
I don't think anybody in the NFL can beat New Orleans at home. If not for Peyton Manning, we'd be talking about Drew Brees as MVP front runner. Brees has been almost perfect at home as well throwing 18 TD's and only two INT's in five games at the Superdome. The 49ers have played well on the road going 3-1, but those wins have been against teams with a losing record. Colin Kaepernick has not hit the expectations many had for him, especially Ron Jaworski who thought he could be one of the best quarterbacks ever. He's only thrown nine touchdowns and hasn't ran the ball as good as San Francisco hoped he would. All is all, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFL but the Saints are on another level when they play at home.
Other NFL in 10 or less
Colts -3 over TITANS Luck plays better after blowout loss to St Louis.
Lions -2.5 over STEELERS Detroit's feeling it after taking out rival Bears.
BEARS -3 over Ravens Still have trouble believing in Baltimore.
Browns +5.5 over BENGALS Cleveland D keeps it close in Cincy.
TEXANS -9.5 over Raiders Matt McGloin making start for Oakland, that's enough for me.
JAGUARS +8.5 over Cardinals Arizona doesn't blow teams out on the road.
SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Vikings Seattle's defense too tough for Peterson.
GIANTS -4 over Packers GB has issues without Rodgers.
Chiefs +7.5 over BRONCOS KC coming of bye gives Manning fits.
Patriots +3 over PANTHERS Brady comes up big in primetime off bye week.
SuperContest
Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Total: 26-22-2
Overall
Last Week: 5-8-1
Season Total: 73-69-4
Sunday, November 10, 2013
NFL Week 10 Pick'em
As we make the turn for the second half of the season we are barely keeping our heads above water. Sitting at 24-20-1 for the SuperContest and 68-61-3 overall we are in the positive but not by much. We had some bad luck last week with the Chargers not being able to punch it in from the one-yard line then subsequently losing to the Redskins in OT. But I can't complain too much as we were on the right side of luck and Andrew Luck led the Colts on a huge comeback against the Texans with a perfect two-point conversion pass late to cover the 2.5 spread. This week all eyes will be on our Detroit Lions as they head to Chicago for a battle of first place in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers getting hurt Monday night against the Bears, the division is ripe for Detroit or Chicago to take control for a playoff push. Gotta be quick with this one.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
PACKERS +1 over Eagles
This game screams for us to take Philly. Nick Foles just threw seven touchdowns against the Raiders and, as I just stated, Rodgers is out with a shoulder injury. But the Packers finally have a running game for the first time in years with rookie Eddie Lacy. They also have one of the greatest home field advantages playing in Lambeau. Lacy will go off and Packers will force Foles to throw his first INT to hold on for the win.
Lions +2 over BEARS
Are the Lions for real this year? This will be a huge test to find out if they really are. Detroit won 40-32 earlier in the year behind Reggie Bush's 139 rushing yards. Jay Cutler will be back as starter for the Bears this week but the Lions forced four Cutler turnovers in their previous meeting. Detroit will bring the pressure again and escape with a win.
49ERS -5.5 over Panthers
Carolina is one of the hottest teams in league right now behind Cam Newton and an inspired defense. The Panthers have won four straight by a 32.5-12 average. However, those opponents have a combined 7-27 record. The 49ers are coming off a bye after taking care of the Jags in London 42-10 and on a five game win streak of their own. This is a matchup of two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL between Newton and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco will put the Panthers in their place and will flex their superior muscle on defense.
CARDINALS -3 over Texans
Houston thought they finally had their third win until Andrew Luck pulled it away late in the fourth quarter. The Texans are on a six game slide and they just found out star running back Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season after needing back surgery. They will also be without their head coach Gary Kubiak after he collapsed during halftime of their game against the Colts. This team had a hard enough time winning before this and it should make it even tougher. The Cardinals are coming off their bye as well and are 3-1 ATS. They took down another struggling team in the Falcons their last time out and should do the same to the Texans.
BUCS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tampa Bay is one of two winless teams left in the NFL and after Monday night they will have their first win. The Bucs almost had it last week in Seattle but couldn't hold on late as they fell in overtime 27-24. The biggest reason they get the nod this week is because of the turmoil the Miami Dolphins are in right now. This issue with Richie Incognito has been all of the news and will take a lot away from the play of this team on the field. That story is still developing but they still have to go out their a play on Monday night. Tampa Bay will be fueled by home crowd in primetime.
Other NFL in 10 or less
VIKINGS +1 over Redskins Looked good against Dallas, Peterson will run wild.
TITANS -12 over Jaguars Jags on the road is not a good sign.
Bills +3 over STEELERS Manuel coming back and running game looks good with Spiller.
Raiders +7 over GIANTS Eli still turnover machine and that will keep Oakland close.
COLTS -7.5 over Rams Young Rams will be different team on the road.
FALCONS +4 over Seahawks Seattle coming east will have slow start but win late.
Bengals +1 over RAVENS Defending champs continue to struggle, even at home
Broncos -7 over CHARGERS Peyton coming off bye is hungry to put up points.
Cowboys +6 over SAINTS Should be shootout, Dallas has kept games close all year.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 24-20-1
Overall
Last Week: 6-7
Season Total: 68-61-3
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
2013 NFL Midseason Totals
With the NFL season half way over let's see how our predictions for season totals are panning out. The Kansas City Chiefs have already passed our expectations, and the casinos who are already paying out tickets. They are the lone undefeated team left at 9-0 easily passing the 7.5 o/u line. We extremely overvalued the Falcons, Texans and Steelers as they are among the biggest disappointments of the year. But our best of under for the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are looking solid. There's a lot of games left and many of these totals are still up in the air.
| 2013 NFL Season Totals | Line | Projected | Actual |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 (o -180) | 6 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9.5 (o -145) | 10 | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 (o +115) | 9 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 6 (u -120) | 4 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 (u +115) | 6 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 (u +120) | 7 | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 (o -200) | 9 | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 (u +135) | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.5 (u +110) | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 (o -105) | 11 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 (o -110) | 12 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 (u -115) | 7 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 (u -130) | 4 | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 (o -175) | 8 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7.5 (u +125) | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 (u -125) | 6 | 2 |
| New England Patriots | 11 (o +110) | 12 | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 (u +110) | 9 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 (u even) | 8 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 (u -170) | 4 | 5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 5 (u -185) | 3 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.5 (u -130) | 6 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 (o +140) | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7.5 (u -155) | 5 | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 (o -130) | 13 | 8 |
| St Louis Rams | 7.5 (u -110) | 5 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 (u +105) | 6 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 (u -110) | 6 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | 8.5 (u -110) | 8 | 3 |
Sunday, November 3, 2013
2013-14 NBA Western Conference Preview
The Western Conference has a lot of teams to keep an eye on and any one of them has an opportunity to make it to the NBA Finals. Just like the East, there are big name players that will impact new teams like the Houston Rockets who added Dwight Howard and the Golden State Warriors bringing in Andre Iguodala. Russell Westbrook will miss some time for the Oklahoma City Thunder while recovering from knee surgery, so it will be interesting to see if he'll be 100% when he returns. The Los Angeles Clippers didn't make any roster changes but did trade for a head coach as Doc Rivers will try to lead this talented bunch to the finals. Speaking of Los Angeles, the Lakers will likely miss the playoffs as Kobe Bryant will be out an extended amount of time after tearing his Achilles. As for the San Antonio Spurs, well, they are still the Spurs.
Western Conference Contenders
San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs are the NBA version of the New England Patriots. They are the one team that you can never count out even if their superstars are another year older. The core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and head coach Gregg Popovich will always be a title contender for as long as they are together. However, last year we saw the emergence of two key younger players in Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Both played huge roles in the Spurs making the NBA Finals and pushing the Miami Heat to a game 7. I talked about Leonard in my 2013-14 NBA Awards Predictions as a possible winner of the Most Improved award. A lot of this rests on the shoulders of Manu Ginobili because if Coach Pop cuts his minutes down because of a poor 2012-13 season, Leonard will be the beneficiary. Danny Green made a splash in the playoffs, especially in the finals, with his three-point shooting. If he can continue that pace into this season we can expect to see the Spurs playing for another title.
Houston Rockets - The most intriguing team in the Western Conference has to be the Houston Rockets. Last year they added James Harden in a blockbuster trade with Oklahoma City and this year they grabbed Dwight Howard in free agency. Harden has quickly turned himself into the best shooting guard in the league after one year of starting. The question now is, which Dwight Howard will they get? The early Orland Magic Howard that dominanted the game and had fun doing it? Or, the late Magic and Los Angeles Lakers Howard that complained about his coach and situation on the court? I think it will be the former. Howard seems to be excited to join a player like Harden and will get back to being a dominant force in the paint. One thing to watch is how much head coach Kevin McHale will use the twin towers of Howard and 7-footer Omer Asik. Asik was a pleasant surprise averaging 10.1 points and 11.7 boards a year ago but was a little hesitant to invite Howard to Houston as he thought his minutes might get reduced. I think McHale is a great coach to have in this situation because he formed his own version of twin towers when he played in Boston with fellow hall of famer Robert Parish. One secret to this team's success is swingman Chandler Parsons. Parsons is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He averaged 15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and adds another shooter to floor hitting two triples a game last year. If Howard and Harden can co-exist as superstars in H-town they have the right role players to get this team to the Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder - When Russell Westbrook went down in the playoffs a year ago I was amazed how much this team struggled, especially Kevin Durant. The Thunder were 3-6 without Westbrook, and we saw Durant's points and field goal attempts go up while all of his shooting percentages went way down. The cause of this was he started to force things and take a lot of bad shots. Once Westbrook gets back into the action we'll have to see if his explosiveness will still be there. He is one of the best athletes in the league and relies on that athleticism to outplay his opponents. For this team to be great they need Westbrook, unless they get more out of Serge Ibaka or if Jeremy Lamb steps into a scoring role. Durant showed us in the playoffs he can't do it himself and this team lacks scoring depth. If Westbrook is slowed down by his knee injury, OKC might have a difficult time in a competitive Western Conference.
Los Angeles Clippers - Rarely do you see a team trade for a coach but that's exactly what the Clippers did to get Doc Rivers. They felt they had the right talent, but Vinny Del Negro was not the right man. It's tough to argue that when you have the best point guard in the NBA with Chris Paul and a great young, athletic front court in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan but fail to make a deep run in the playoffs. We know what to expect from Paul. He's always among the league leaders in assists and steals, as well as a clutch performer. Griffin has seen his points and rebounds drop consistently over his first three years with the Clips but that isn't a bad thing because they've been winning. He should be a 20 point, 10 rebound guy year in and year out as he continues to improve his offensive game. Jordan is a great finisher around the rim, just ask Brandon Knight, but should be a better rebounder. The "other guys" are led by Jamal Crawford, who is one of the best sixth men in the league and a great scorer. J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley come in and add excellent outside shooting to the starting lineup. The Clippers are a popular pick by many experts to make the NBA Finals but they need to find a way to win in the playoffs as they haven't made it past the conference semis yet.
Golden State Warriors - Stephen Curry is no question the best three-point shooter in the NBA. For hard evidence check out these graphs on a Deadspin Regressing article. Basically it says nobody else comes close to Steph from beyond the arc. Last year he set the record for made three-pointers in a single season with 272 and don't be surprised if he doesn't try to better that this year. His back court mate Klay Thompson isn't too bad either from downtown. Thompson likes to launch it as well and if improves on a his 40% from deep a year ago this could be the most deadly back court tandem ever. Swingman Andre Iguodala, who came over after one year with the Denver Nuggets, will provide a great perimeter defender and a guy that can do it all. Iguodala is a player that thrives as a third or fourth option on a team. He's a decent scorer that can distribute and rebound. Down low, David Lee is capable of 20-10 but doesn't play much defense and Andrew Bogut has a hard time staying healthy. Their problem is depth. After losing bench leader Jarret Jack to the Cavs in free agency, they are left with Harrison Barnes to provide scoring for the second unit. There were able to make the playoffs and beat the Nuggets in the first round a year ago. In order to make it further they need to play better defense and get some production from their bench.
Memphis Grizzlies - Memphis made the Western Conference Finals last year after disposing of the Clippers in six and the Thunder in five. They are known as one of the best defensive teams in the league and have the reigning defensive player of the year in Marc Gasol. Their biggest difference was getting rid of head coach Lionel Hollins and replacing him with first year man David Joerger. Joerger was an assistant with the team so you hope he still installs the same type of defense that Hollins had as that's what won them most of their games. Along with Gasol, Zach Randolph has been producing less the past three seasons. Look for point guard Mike Conley to finally take over as leading scorer, building off a solid postseason performance. Tony Allen remains one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and, along with Gasol, will make sure the Grizzlies bring the intensity on that end of the court night in and night out. I would say Memphis has the longest shot to go all the way, but they almost did it a year ago and have the entire team back.
Western Conference Playoff Teams
1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Houston Rockets
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Golden State Warriors
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Dallas Mavericks
Western Conference Contenders
San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs are the NBA version of the New England Patriots. They are the one team that you can never count out even if their superstars are another year older. The core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and head coach Gregg Popovich will always be a title contender for as long as they are together. However, last year we saw the emergence of two key younger players in Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Both played huge roles in the Spurs making the NBA Finals and pushing the Miami Heat to a game 7. I talked about Leonard in my 2013-14 NBA Awards Predictions as a possible winner of the Most Improved award. A lot of this rests on the shoulders of Manu Ginobili because if Coach Pop cuts his minutes down because of a poor 2012-13 season, Leonard will be the beneficiary. Danny Green made a splash in the playoffs, especially in the finals, with his three-point shooting. If he can continue that pace into this season we can expect to see the Spurs playing for another title.
Houston Rockets - The most intriguing team in the Western Conference has to be the Houston Rockets. Last year they added James Harden in a blockbuster trade with Oklahoma City and this year they grabbed Dwight Howard in free agency. Harden has quickly turned himself into the best shooting guard in the league after one year of starting. The question now is, which Dwight Howard will they get? The early Orland Magic Howard that dominanted the game and had fun doing it? Or, the late Magic and Los Angeles Lakers Howard that complained about his coach and situation on the court? I think it will be the former. Howard seems to be excited to join a player like Harden and will get back to being a dominant force in the paint. One thing to watch is how much head coach Kevin McHale will use the twin towers of Howard and 7-footer Omer Asik. Asik was a pleasant surprise averaging 10.1 points and 11.7 boards a year ago but was a little hesitant to invite Howard to Houston as he thought his minutes might get reduced. I think McHale is a great coach to have in this situation because he formed his own version of twin towers when he played in Boston with fellow hall of famer Robert Parish. One secret to this team's success is swingman Chandler Parsons. Parsons is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He averaged 15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and adds another shooter to floor hitting two triples a game last year. If Howard and Harden can co-exist as superstars in H-town they have the right role players to get this team to the Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder - When Russell Westbrook went down in the playoffs a year ago I was amazed how much this team struggled, especially Kevin Durant. The Thunder were 3-6 without Westbrook, and we saw Durant's points and field goal attempts go up while all of his shooting percentages went way down. The cause of this was he started to force things and take a lot of bad shots. Once Westbrook gets back into the action we'll have to see if his explosiveness will still be there. He is one of the best athletes in the league and relies on that athleticism to outplay his opponents. For this team to be great they need Westbrook, unless they get more out of Serge Ibaka or if Jeremy Lamb steps into a scoring role. Durant showed us in the playoffs he can't do it himself and this team lacks scoring depth. If Westbrook is slowed down by his knee injury, OKC might have a difficult time in a competitive Western Conference.
Los Angeles Clippers - Rarely do you see a team trade for a coach but that's exactly what the Clippers did to get Doc Rivers. They felt they had the right talent, but Vinny Del Negro was not the right man. It's tough to argue that when you have the best point guard in the NBA with Chris Paul and a great young, athletic front court in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan but fail to make a deep run in the playoffs. We know what to expect from Paul. He's always among the league leaders in assists and steals, as well as a clutch performer. Griffin has seen his points and rebounds drop consistently over his first three years with the Clips but that isn't a bad thing because they've been winning. He should be a 20 point, 10 rebound guy year in and year out as he continues to improve his offensive game. Jordan is a great finisher around the rim, just ask Brandon Knight, but should be a better rebounder. The "other guys" are led by Jamal Crawford, who is one of the best sixth men in the league and a great scorer. J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley come in and add excellent outside shooting to the starting lineup. The Clippers are a popular pick by many experts to make the NBA Finals but they need to find a way to win in the playoffs as they haven't made it past the conference semis yet.
Golden State Warriors - Stephen Curry is no question the best three-point shooter in the NBA. For hard evidence check out these graphs on a Deadspin Regressing article. Basically it says nobody else comes close to Steph from beyond the arc. Last year he set the record for made three-pointers in a single season with 272 and don't be surprised if he doesn't try to better that this year. His back court mate Klay Thompson isn't too bad either from downtown. Thompson likes to launch it as well and if improves on a his 40% from deep a year ago this could be the most deadly back court tandem ever. Swingman Andre Iguodala, who came over after one year with the Denver Nuggets, will provide a great perimeter defender and a guy that can do it all. Iguodala is a player that thrives as a third or fourth option on a team. He's a decent scorer that can distribute and rebound. Down low, David Lee is capable of 20-10 but doesn't play much defense and Andrew Bogut has a hard time staying healthy. Their problem is depth. After losing bench leader Jarret Jack to the Cavs in free agency, they are left with Harrison Barnes to provide scoring for the second unit. There were able to make the playoffs and beat the Nuggets in the first round a year ago. In order to make it further they need to play better defense and get some production from their bench.
Memphis Grizzlies - Memphis made the Western Conference Finals last year after disposing of the Clippers in six and the Thunder in five. They are known as one of the best defensive teams in the league and have the reigning defensive player of the year in Marc Gasol. Their biggest difference was getting rid of head coach Lionel Hollins and replacing him with first year man David Joerger. Joerger was an assistant with the team so you hope he still installs the same type of defense that Hollins had as that's what won them most of their games. Along with Gasol, Zach Randolph has been producing less the past three seasons. Look for point guard Mike Conley to finally take over as leading scorer, building off a solid postseason performance. Tony Allen remains one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and, along with Gasol, will make sure the Grizzlies bring the intensity on that end of the court night in and night out. I would say Memphis has the longest shot to go all the way, but they almost did it a year ago and have the entire team back.
Western Conference Playoff Teams
1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Houston Rockets
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Golden State Warriors
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, November 1, 2013
NFL Week 9 Pick'em
Finally off the schneid! After three straight losing weeks we managed to go 8-5. We lost the pick, but I have to start by talking about the amazing performance by the Detroit Lions and Calvin Johnson. In an instant classic with the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions went 80 yards in 50 seconds with no timeouts to edge the Cowboys 31-30. Johnson was the big story finishing with 329 yards, seven yards shy of an NFL record, and one touchdown. But let's not forget about the job Matthew Stafford did all game either. He was especially great on the final drive hitting Kris Durham with pinpoint precision down the left sideline for 40 yards and faking out everyone as he sneaked the ball over the goal line instead spiking it to stop the clock. But enough about last week, let's go for two in a row and start a new winning streak.
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Titans -2.5 over RAMS
Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings. Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year. Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye. Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers. Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night. Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts. The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries. Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out. This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's. But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole. Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.
BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens
This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals. They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way. The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year. Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC. As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City. I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.
Chargers PK over REDSKINS
RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago. Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games. Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past. The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them. Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.
Colts -2.5 over TEXANS
The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston. This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver. Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year. They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub. The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of. This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.
PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons Two teams going in opposite directions.
COWBOYS -10 over Vikings Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.
Saints -6.5 over JETS Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.
SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS Steelers D should keep this one close.
Bears +11 over PACKERS Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 21-18-1
Overall
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 62-54-3
SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Titans -2.5 over RAMS
Tennessee has three straight losses but all came against teams currently in the top six of most power rankings. Jake Locker had his first game back from injury last time out against the 49ers and also threw his first interception of the year. Lucky for him he gets the Rams this week after coming off a bye. Don't get me wrong, St. Louis' defense is good but nothing like 49ers. Also the Rams are ripe for a big let down on a short week and squandering a chance to take down Seattle at home last Monday night. Kellen Clemens looked very shaky throwing for two INT's and only 158 yards on 31 attempts. The Rams had their chance of pulling the upset on the big stage of MNF but won't put up much of a fight on a regular 1:00pm kickoff.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the worst quarterback struggles in league because of injuries. Last week they were down to their third stringer, Matt Barkley, after Michael Vick and Nick Foles were both out. This week it looks like Foles will be back from his concussion and he has been Philly's best QB so far with 6 TD's and 0 INT's. But Oakland's defense has actually played pretty well and QB Terrelle Pryor is 3-0 in the black hole. Both teams have losing records so I'll take the home team, especially when the road team travels across the country.
BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens
This is a difficult game to choose but I just have a feeling this will be a hard fought close game between two bitter rivals. They played in Week 2, a game Baltimore won 14-6, but that could have gone either way. The Ravens are coming off a bye which is a little scary but this team has struggled to be consistent all year. Their star running back Ray Rice has been a key contributor to those struggles as he's averaging a dismal 2.8 YPC. As for Cleveland, Jason Campbell started his first game for the Browns last time out and actually played pretty good at Kansas City. I don't expect much scoring and I think Cleveland will get enough out of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to cover.
Chargers PK over REDSKINS
RG3 continues to be hampered by his knee and this team looks nothing like the playoff team from a year ago. Philip Rivers on the other hand has spectacular throwing for his highest completion percentage ever at 74% and has 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. San Diego has also found their running game lately with Ryan Mathews rushing for over 100 yards for two straight games. Danny Woodhead has also been great out of the backfield looking like Darren Sproles from the Chargers past. The Chargers are coming off a bye so travel should not affect them. Look for San Diego to take this PICK game.
Colts -2.5 over TEXANS
The last time we saw the Indianapolis Colts they were knocking off Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Then they got to enjoy their bye week and are now on the road in Houston. This will also be the first game Andrew Luck doesn't have his safety net of Reggie Wayne as he was lost with an ACL tear against Denver. Houston is also coming off a bye has been the most disappointing team this year. They will be starting second year man Case Keenum again in place of a healthy Matt Schaub. The Texans might also be starting Ben Tate at running back as Arian Foster will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Houston is only 1-6 ATS and the Colts have already beat the 49ers on the road 27-7 so playing away from home is nothing to be afraid of. This will be a tight one but take the rested Colts.
Other NFL in 10 or less
DOLPHINS +3 over Bengals Cincy struggles on the road, Miami gets its mojo back.
PANTHERS -7.5 over Falcons Two teams going in opposite directions.
COWBOYS -10 over Vikings Romo has field day against porous Minnesota D.
Saints -6.5 over JETS Saints offense on fire and defense forces plenty turnovers.
BILLS +3.5 over Chiefs Bills keep home games close, if Thad Lewis plays.
SEAHAWKS -16 over Bucs Seattle bounces back at home, I just can't take Bucs.
Steelers +7 over PATRIOTS Steelers D should keep this one close.
Bears +11 over PACKERS Even without Cutler, Bears stay within two scores.
SuperContest
Last Week: 3-2
Season Total: 21-18-1
Overall
Last Week: 8-5
Season Total: 62-54-3
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