The NBA Finals are here and a consistent contender in the San Antonio Spurs, match up with the defending champion, Miami Heat. The Spurs are coming off a sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, while the Heat finished off the Indiana Pacers in a grueling 7-game series. Will the Spurs show any rust from the long layoff or will it be much needed rest for their older players? Will the Heat be tired from going the distance with the Pacers or will they find a second wind to go back-to-back. These are only a few of the questions we have before this series starts tonight.
Which Big 3 has the advantage?
The same year Miami's Big 3 were drafted in 2003, San Antonio's Big 3 were coming off their first of three championships together. Long before the term Big 3 was a cliche, the Spurs Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili made up a core that has stuck together for over 10 years. The originators will now take on the latest Big 3 to win a title in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
For the Spurs, Parker seems to have turned back the hands of time and is having arguably the best season of his career. Duncan is having his best season over the past three, whereas Ginobili is have his worst year in the last three seasons. Parker has been the second best player in the playoffs and showed it against Memphis, one of the best defensive teams in the league. Parker had his way with Mike Conley and Tony Allen all series. When his jumper was off in game 2 he dished out 18 assists and in game 4 he poured in 37 points on 15-21 shooting. Duncan has been his fundamental self averaging 17.8 points and 9.2 boards in the playoffs. 20 and 10 is no longer a nightly thing for the 37 year old Duncan, but is still very possible. And after seeing what Roy Hibbert and David West did to Miami's front line, I can see Timmy producing just the same. Ginobili on the other hand could be the wild card. Besides hitting a game winning three in double overtime against Golden State, the Argentinian has been relatively quiet. At 35, he looks to be hitting a wall averaging only 11.5 points in the playoffs. But, the Finals usually bring out the best in players that have proven they don't crack under pressure.
The Heat's Big 3 is in their third year as teammates and have reached the NBA Finals for the third consecutive year. LeBron was named NBA MVP for the fourth time and like Parker, is having one of his best seasons ever. He's also been the best player in the playoffs as well and showed us in the series against the Pacers. Not only was he asked to guard Paul George, Indiana's best perimeter player, but also carry the offense because Wade and Bosh have struggled mightily. Wade has been a shell of himself scoring 14.1 ppg and only reaching 20 points twice this postseason. He missed 13 games during the year with a knee problem so maybe that's still bothering him. Whatever his issue, the Heat will need more production from Wade if they want to get past the Spurs. As for Bosh, he had a really hard time against the bigger and stronger Pacers front line and only managed 11 points and 4.3 rebounds in the series. Playing against Duncan and Tiago Splitter might help Bosh as they aren't as physical and play more of his style.
Miami's Big 3 are all around their prime age but only LeBron is playing like it. Parker and Duncan are definitely holding their own but Ginobili looks like he's lost his game. If I'm going to give an edge I'd have to give it to the Heat, but only slightly. We know LBJ is the best player on the planet, but Wade showed up in game 7 against the Pacers and I think he might have found his groove. I also don't expect Bosh to play as poorly as he has. Against the Spurs during the regular season he put up 41 points and 21 rebounds in two games.
Will LeBron James guard Tony Parker?
This is a huge question and one that could determine the outcome of this series. As we've discussed Parker has been on a tear and hasn't shown signs of slowing down. After dismantling two of the best on ball defenders in Conley and Allen he might have to contend with the most athletic player in the league. But would it be smart for James to take on Parker? For an entire game, no. Parker can run for days and with all the screens he gets it would probably tire LeBron out to be able to produce effectively on offense. There's no question he is the Heat's best defender but with how much they need him to create on offense, they can't afford James to burn himself out chasing Parker all of the court. In late game situations I expect to see this match up, but not from the jump.
Which bench will have the bigger impact?
Bench players always have an impact on every game, either in a positive or negative way. Both teams have key contributors as reserves and will need their help to win the title. Both are also thin with post players and their strongest contributors play on the outside.
San Antonio looks to Ginobili, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal, and Boris Diaw when the starters need a rest. We've talked about Ginobili already but he is the best sixth man in this series even with struggling in the playoffs so far. The reason is because he can effect the game in other ways than scoring (4.5 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg). Bonner will never "wow" you with athleticism, like this jumpball with Zach Randolph, but he is one of the best three-point shooters in the league at 44%. Neal is a serviceable backup point guard to Parker and when given the minutes he can fill it up, as he's scored 20+ points multiple times this year. Diaw is a big body and if he's going to contribute it will be through rebounding and playmaking at the high post.
Coming off the Heat's bench is Ray Allen, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller. Regulated to the bench, Allen has been up and down all year, but mostly down averaging a career low 10 points per game. He was on fire from deep in their first series against the Bucks but has faded badly until game 7 with the Pacers where he was 3-5. That's all that he offers anymore is three-point shooting and if he's off he might as well stay on the bench. Andersen, one of Shaq's favorites, has provided a huge lift for the Heat since joining the team. A friend of mine thinks he's one of the main reasons the Heat were 40-4 after he was signed in late January. There's no doubt he's helped by adding much needed rebounding to a poor rebounding team as well as a rim protector. Cole can provide defensive pressure on Parker as he was able to disrupt George Hill and DJ Augustin of the Pacers, and can knockdown 3's. Battier and Miller are one in the same. Battier might draw a charge or two but their sole responsibility is to hit open three-pointers when James or Wade drives and dishes.
I will give the advantage to the Heat because their bench can provide in more areas. The Spurs bench outside of Ginobili only offers scoring but the Heat get scoring and defense out of their reserves.
Who will control the 3-point line and rebounding?
We know that supplementing Miami's Big 3, they have surrounded them with three-point threats. Along with the bench players I just mentioned, Mario Chalmers is another guy that hit from deep and even Bosh has been knocking down 3's in the playoffs. In their meeting in San Antonio, the Heat made 12 of 28 from downtown helping them win without Wade and LeBron, 88-86. But the Spurs are an underrated three-point shooting team. Bonner, Ginobili, Danny Green, and Kawhi Leonard are all capable of getting hot from long range. Also, in the postseason the Spurs have a better three-point percentage (36.2%) than the Heat (35.6%) and San Antonio also makes more (7.4) than Miami (7.1) per game. So you might not think of the Spurs as deep threats but they have the right players to compliment Duncan and Parker's paint production.
We saw the Pacers decimate the Heat on the boards and it was no different for the Spurs in their two meetings this year. San Antonio held a 94-70 edge combined in the two games. Much like Indiana, the Spurs attack the glass in a team effort not just relying on Duncan and Splitter to grab the rebound. But, Bosh proved he can board with the Spurs and that's a huge plus. Wade also seemed to be rejuvenated in game 7 as he grabbed nine rebounds, including six offensive. It was the only game in which Miami had the rebounding advantage, so maybe that means they solved their problem on the glass.
Both are very similar in both categories but I'm going with the Spurs to control each aspect. They are sneaky good from three-point range and have great size at every position.
Who will win the series?
We still haven't seen these two teams play a legit game this year but the Heat did win both meetings. Although in game one Spurs coach
Gregg Popovich sent Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, and Green back to San Antonio after the first game of a back-to-back, and Leonard was hurt. This made NBA Commissioner David Stern pretty upset. So, in the second meeting Heat coach Erik Spoelstra figured he'd sit James, Wade, and Chalmers to get back at Coach Pop. We have two games to look at to determine what will happen in this series but we really don't know what to expect when both teams match up at full strength.
However, to me the Spurs have too much experience and the best coach in the league and will pull this out. Popovich is one of the greatest coaches ever along side Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach. Pop already has four championships and except his first season and a lockout year, his team has won 50+ games every year since 1998. If this is a long series, which I think it will be, there will come a time where Popovich seriously out coaches the young Erik Spoelstra. Also, another title for Tim Duncan will solidify him as the best power forward ever and possibly the best player of his era. Not to mention, Tony Parker has reestablished himself as the best point guard in the NBA. Yes, better than Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Let's not forget that it was Parker who was the Finals MVP in 2007 when the Spurs swept LeBron's Cavs. James is the best player in the NBA and will be the best player in this series. But, San Antonio has the next two best players and the best coach which will be tough for King James to overcome. And don't sleep on the other starters for the Spurs. Green, Leonard, and Splitter will out perform Miami's complimentary players to take home the championship.
Spurs in 6
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