The Miami Heat are the overwhelming favorite to not only represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA finals, but to take home their second consecutive championship. Last I checked, the odds for the Heat to win the title are 1/3, which means you have to bet $3 to win $1. Terrible odds when you consider that there are still multiple teams left. But it just goes to show you how pretty much everybody, even Las Vegas, expects Miami to blow past the rest of the competition.
The Heat started the playoffs by disposing of a completely out matched Milwaukee Bucks team in a clean four game sweep. Then they eased by a depleted Chicago Bulls team in five games. Now, they turn their sights on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are the 3-seed in the East and are the biggest long shot left to win a championship. But we've seen crazier things happen before and don't think they are just going to rollover and let Miami walk into the finals. Let's take a look at a few things Indiana has going for itself that will help them take out the mighty Heat.
1. Indiana held a 2-1 series lead last year
From the land of stats that don't but do matter comes this one. A year ago in the Eastern Conference Semis the Pacers took a 2-1 lead after a 19-point victory in Indy. During that game Lance Stephenson, at the time a seldom used bench player, gave LeBron James and the Heat the two-handed choke sign which was not received so well by the rest of the team. Stephenson is now a starter and will have to show out on the court instead of the bench this year. Miami went on to win the next three games but the Pacers showed they can hang with the Heat for half a series now it's time to show they can do it for the entire series. Just like the Pistons had to find a way past Larry Bird and the Celtics and Michael Jordan's Bulls past those same Pistons. The Pacers have a bad taste in their mouth from a year ago and have been looking forward to get another shot at LeBron and Miami.
2. The Pacers won 2 of 3 in regular season
The Pacers were only one of two teams to have a winning record against the Heat during the regular season holding a 2-1 advantage (the New York Knicks were 3-1). I know what some of you are saying "it doesn't matter because it's only the regular season", but why wouldn't it matter? Both teams had their full compliment of players, except Chris Andersen who only played in two of the games, and the games were in the heart of the season. If the Heat didn't care about winning games they wouldn't have gone on a 27 game winning streak. Do any of those wins transfer to playoff wins, no, however it gives a team confidence knowing they haven't struggled against their opponent in the most recent matchups.
3. Paul George
With Danny Granger sidelined due to injury Paul George stepped into the leading role for Indiana this season. George thrived in the situation leading the Pacers in scoring at 17.4 a game and won the NBA's Most Improved award. Not only is he looked at to lead Indiana's offense but will be the primary defender against LeBron. In the three games during the regular season George was able to hold his own against the 4-time MVP. Here's a breakdown of those games.
PTS REB AST PTS REB AST RESULT
Game 1 George 29 11 2 LBJ 22 10 4 Pacers 87-77
Game 2 George 15 6 6 LBJ 28 6 3 Pacers 102-89
Game 3 George 10 6 5 LBJ 13 6 7 Heat 105-91
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Paul George is as good as LeBron James but he obviously has the ability to neutralize his production by matching his numbers. Ironically, the only game LeBron drastically out-performed George was the biggest margin of victory for Indiana. James is the best player on the planet but if George can get close to matching his production it gives the Pacers a great chance to take this series.
4. The Pacers were best 3-point defensive team during the regular season
LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh no doubt run the Miami Heat but they still rely on the three-point shooting of their role players. During the regular season Miami was third in three-pointers made (8.7 per game) and second in three-point percentage (39.6%). However, the Pacers ranked first in opponents three-point percentage (32.7%). It's hard enough to worry about guarding the rim against the big three but when you have to stop Shane Battier, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, and Norris Cole from hitting three's it's even more difficult to contain the Heat. Indiana needs to clamp down on the role players hitting big three's and there's hope for the Pacers. The big three will get theirs but it's usually one of the "other guys" that are a determining factor. In the two losses during the regular season the others scored only 11 points on 3-12 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and scored 31 with 4-11 from distance in Game 2. In the single Miami win, Chalmers and Allen alone scored 37 with 6-10 three's and the Heat as a team were able to hit 50% from deep. Not only do the Pacers guard the three well but gave up the second fewest points (90.7) and held opponents to a league best 42% from the field. Holding Miami to jump shots and forcing misses from long range will play right into the Pacers game-plan.
5. Indiana is the best rebounding team in the league
They say the Miami Heat have the most trouble against good rebounding teams. Well guess what, the Indiana Pacers averaged the most rebounds in the league during the regular season (and playoffs) at 45.9 a game. As for Miami, they ranked dead last with 38.6 per game. Rebounding is such a huge part to every game, to be able to keep possessions alive or hold your opponent to only one shot often determines the outcome. In all their meetings this year the Pacers held an edge on the boards. A big question will be how much of the game 7'2 Roy Hibbert plays. The Heat like to play small with Bosh at center and LeBron at power forward so it will be interesting to see if Pacers head coach Frank Vogel will still play Hibbert around 30 minutes a game. Even though the big man leads Indiana on the boards, he isn't the only one attacking the glass as George and Stephenson grab more than eight a game and David West hauls in 6.8 per. It's a total team effort by the Pacers which means it's going to take a total team effort by the Heat to box out and keep them off the glass.
Before you get all riled up thinking I'm taking the Pacers to beat the Heat, I'm not. Because even though Indiana has all that going for them, what Miami has is LeBron James. I do think it will be a hard fought series because there is no love lost from a physical post season meeting a year ago, but Miami is on a whole other level than every team in the east. I'll take the Heat in 6.
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