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Friday, January 3, 2014

2013 NFL Season Totals and Pick'em Results

With the 2013 NFL regular season in the books and the playoffs about to start let's take a look at how we did with our predictions for the season totals.

2013 NFL Season Totals Line Projected Actual
Arizona Cardinals 5.5 (o -180) 6 10
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 (o -145) 10 4
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 (o +115) 9 8
Buffalo Bills 6 (u -120) 4 6
Carolina Panthers 7.5 (u +115) 6 12
Chicago Bears 8.5 (u +120) 7 7
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 (o -200) 9 11
Cleveland Browns 6.5 (u +135) 5 4
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 (u +110) 8 8
Denver Broncos 12 12 13
Detroit Lions 8.5 (u -115) 7 7
Green Bay Packers 10.5 (o -105) 11 8
Houston Texans 10.5 (o -110) 12 2
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 (u -115) 7 11
Jacksonville Jaguars 5 (u -130) 4 4
Kansas City Chiefs 7.5 (o -175) 8 11
Miami Dolphins 7.5 (u +125) 6 8
Minnesota Vikings 7 (u -125) 6 6
New England Patriots 11 (o +110) 12 12
New Orleans Saints 9.5 (u +110) 9 11
New York Giants 8.5 (u even) 8 7
New York Jets 6 (u -170) 4 8
Oakland Raiders 5 (u -185) 3 4
Philadelphia Eagles 7.5 (u -130) 6 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 (o +140) 10 8
San Diego Chargers 7.5 (u -155) 5 9
San Francisco 49ers 11 11 11
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 (o -130) 13 14
St Louis Rams 7.5 (u -110) 5 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5 (u +105) 6 4
Tennessee Titans 6.5 (u -110) 6 7
Washington Redskins 8.5 (u -110) 8 3


Overall we were 16-13-3 (I pushed regardless on Denver and San Francisco because my prediction equaled the line).  The predictions for Atlanta, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego were all big losers with at least four games off their final totals.  However, we somehow were exact on Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New England, and San Francisco.

To recap the weekly pick'em and SuperContest final results we finished with four strong weeks and that was a huge help to our bottom line.  Along with keeping track of ATS wins and losses I also kept track of money won and lost.  I used $20 as my base bet.  If I was wrong I deducted $22 (for the juice), if I was right I added $20.  Here are the final results for the weekly pick'em.

                                               Win/Loss     Correct Picks     Wrong Picks     PUSH
2013 SuperContest Totals     $234.00               48                        33                  4

2013 Pick'em Totals               $258.00              135                      111                10


Other numbers that I calculated during this process were the amount of times teams covered depending if they were the favorite/underdog or playing home/away.  I used the spreads that were listed with my picks and I did not factor in games played in London or games that were listed as PK when I made my picks.  Here are those numbers.


2013 Season Totals
Fav Cover 122
Dog Cover 119
Home Cover 133
Road Cover 112
Home/Fav Cover 85
Road/Dog Cover 73
Home/Dog Cover 44
Road/Fav Cover 36


This was an experiment that I've wanted to do for awhile and I must say that it was very interesting watching the numbers play out.  Even though I "made money" by no means do I think I can do this professionally.  To be honest with you it could have all just been one lucky season for me because I know I've lost more real money than I've won in the sportsbook.  This was an exciting process and if any of you took my advice hopefully you were cashing winning tickets.


NFL Week 17 Pick'em

Well, we are down to the last week of the season and have wrapped up winning records but we aren't much on the plus side of the money.  Although, a win is a win and it's always better to walk away with a little money than losing it.  The last week of the year is always one of the hardest to pick games because of teams resting players for the playoffs or losing for a better draft pick.  However, not many teams will be resting because other than Kansas City no team is locked into their spot and many of them are fighting for one last chance to make it to the postseason.  For the last time, let's get it.


SuperContest Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Packers -3 over BEARS     Rodgers is back so expect the Pack to win.

Redskins +3.5 over GIANTS    Eli will keep Skins in it with turnovers.

STEELERS -7 over Browns     Big Ben smells the playoffs, plays big against rival.

PATRIOTS -7 over Bills     NE won't take Bills lightly after they shut out Miami.

VIKINGS PK over Lions     Detroit is in the gutters and don't want out.


Other NFL 

FALCONS +6 over Panthers     Matt Ryan finally coming around, but too little too late.

TITANS -7 over Texans     Texans ready for the #1 pick in the draft.

Ravens +6.5 over BENGALS     Defending champs won't go down easy.

COLTS -10.5 over Jaguars     Indy outscoring foes 48-10 in last 2 games.

COWBOYS +7 over Eagles     Dallas held Foles' Eagles to 3 points in Philly.

Jets +7.5 over DOLPHINS     Haven't been sold on Miami all year, won't make playoffs.

SAINTS -10.5 over Bucs     Brees at home has been money all year, 6-1 ATS.

Broncos -10 over RAIDERS     Peyton setting records, will run up the score.

CARDINALS -2.5 over 49ers     Arizona still fighting for playoffs, great at home.

Chiefs +10 over CHARGERS     KC playing backups, will still cover.

SEAHAWKS -12.5 over Rams     Seattle looks to lock up home field advantage.


SuperContest
Last Week:  4-1
Season Total:  43-33-4

Overall
Last Week:  10-5-1
Season Total:  124-107-8