Can James Harden Be A #1 Option?

     Late Saturday night while I was out watching the Tigers-Giants game 3 of the World Series and Michigan-Nebraska in college football came interesting news from the NBA.  James Harden, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, was traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Houston Rockets.  Like everybody else my first reaction was shock that the Thunder, who had a core of three superstars at age 24 or younger, would trade away one these players.  Instantly, I felt the Rockets had pulled off the robbery of arguably the leagues most coveted shooting guard.  Then I began to think about the entirety of this trade and began to change my opinion.  Here is the full breakdown of the trade.  Houston receives James Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook, and Lazar Hayward.  OKC gets Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first-round picks and a second-round pick.

     I was discussing the trade with a friend who made a great point.  He said, "with taking age into consideration there is no other shooting guard in the NBA today that I would trade James Harden for straight up."  And it's true!  I tried to come up with 5 other shooting guards and if you are looking for a long term player nobody compares to Harden, who is 23 and averaged 16.8 points per game last year.  Here is my list...

1. Kobe Bryant - Great career and some still think he's the best in the league but has played 16 years, is 34 years old and is said to be retiring when his contract is up in two years.
2. Dwyane Wade - Another player with a nice trophy case but turned 30 this year and required offseason knee surgery.  His numbers have also gone down the last three seasons.
3. Stephen Curry - At 24 he still has room to improve his career stats of 17 ppg, 47% FG, 44% 3PT, and 90% FT.  However, he has the terrible label of a "tweener" being an undersized 2 guard and with those numbers coming on a bad team it's tough to know his worth.
4. Andre Iguodala - In his prime at 28, can rebound and pass well for his position.  He also can defend multiple positions but can struggle scoring with an inconsistent jumpshot.
5. Joe Johnson - Involved in a big trade that sent him from the Atlanta Hawks to the Brooklyn Nets and is a proven scorer that has shown he can lead his team to the playoffs.  Not known to play much defense and at 31 is on the downside of his career.

     With that being said I believe the Thunder has come out on top of this trade.  Even though Harden has so much hype around him right now we still have a lot of questions to be answered.  The biggest one is can he lead a team as their number one option.  In OKC he formed a great "Big 3" with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but remember Harden was the third option.  Now he will be the go to guy drawing the attention of the other teams best perimeter defender so we still have to see if he can handle that role.  The guy to replace Harden from this trade is Kevin Martin.  A player that has averaged 20+ points in five seasons and that is the only thing the Thunder are going to ask him to do, score.  Martin has a stigma about him that he is not very coachable but this guy has only been on bad teams in Sacramento and Houston, players in those situations usually have a "I'mma get mine" mentality.  Coming to a winning team with a great coach like Scott Brooks could be what Martin needs to change his attitude and become a scoring threat that knows his role to help his team win.  To add in Jeremy Lamb, a lottery pick this year, and two more first-round picks the Thunder will have options to reload an already stellar young team.  Who knows, both first-round picks could each be in the lottery again.  The addition of Harden and Jeremy Lin (very overrated) to the Rockets this offseason don't make this team a lock for the playoffs by any means.

     The one aspect of the trade that concerns me about the Thunder is breaking up the great bond that Durant, Westbrook and Harden had formed.  They had fun on the court together and they made each other better.  You can't replace a player like James Harden and losing him may hurt the Thunder's chances of winning a title this year, but looking to the future I think they made good decision.  And with how OKC has been able to draft lately, they will take full advantage of the picks they received.  A lot of credit goes Thunder GM Sam Presti because he was able to unload a player that might not have been back with the team after this season and picked up key pieces in return.

Lions and Tigers and Lines Oh My!

     We are now 2 games into the World Series and the Detroit Tigers are down 0-2.  With the long layoff I honestly was not too confident in us taking game 1, even with Justin Verlander on the mound, as the stats show teams that sweep a championship series are at a disadvantage against a team that wins a game 7.  But honestly, can any more bad breaks go against the Tigers right now?  In game 1 Pablo Sandoval had the game of his life hitting 3 homeruns so, like Tigers Manager Jim Leyland said you just have to tip your hat to him.  However, the Giants scored their first 5 runs with 2 outs which included an RBI single by Marco Scutaro that bounced off third base, passed Miguel Cabrera and into left field.  That play continued the 3rd inning and lead to Kung Fu Panda (Sandoval) belting a 2-run homer that busted the game open.  In game 2 Doug Fister pitched great for Detroit, even after getting a line drive off the back of his head in the 2nd inning, but in the top of that inning Prince Fielder was gunned down at home trying to score from first on a Delmon Young double.  This is where the questioning of began.  All year Gene Lamont, Detroit's third base coach, has been scrutinized by Tigers fans on how he has managed base runners.  There are plenty of time he's told runners to stop at third when he should have sent them and vice versa, this was another one of those times.  Then the 7th inning came and with runners on first and second for the Giants, Gregor Blanco laid down a bunt that trickled down the foul line but stayed in play.  Question 2 then arose.  With no outs some feel that Leyland needed to bring the infield in to make a play at home, instead he kept them at double play depth (which they got) and gave up the first run of the game.  After the game Leyland said he did that in order to not give up more than one run in the inning.  Listen, this guy has been doing this a lot longer than most managers in the MLB so I will trust his reasoning and the bottom line is he got what he wanted out of a bases loaded, no out situation.  I think baseball coaches can be questioned more than any other sport because it's the only sport that fans know what the coach is calling.  Fans know and question everything.  Why did you put that pitcher in, why did you leave that one in so long, why did you play the infield back, why did you put that pinch runner in?  You don't hear that questioning in say football where the coach calls every play the offense runs.  I've never heard someone say "I can't believe he called a Play Action Hitch 'n Go when he should've called a Spider 3 Y Banana".  But where the Tigers are at a HUGE disadvantage are relief pitchers.  Both teams have strong starting rotations, but once you get to the 7th inning or later the Giants have the edge.  The guy that is supposed to be the Tigers closer, Jose Valverde, has an ERA of 30.38 this postseason and that pretty much speaks for itself.  So far this has been reminiscent of the 2006 World Series, which the Tigers ended up on the losing side.  In order for that to be different this year their offense is going to have to get to the starting pitching of San Fran early so that our relief pitching has the cushion to give up a few runs.  Game 3 is tonight with Anibal Sanchez facing Ryan Vogelsong, I look for the Tigers offense to come alive being back home at Comerica Park to make the series 1-2.

     Now onto my NFL picks for this weekend.  First let me say that I'm not someone that likes to take too much time analyzing trends when it comes to sports betting.  Don't get me wrong they are helpful and I do use them for guidance, but I'm not a professional and don't have enough time to make this kind of analysis that I found on covers.com...

Team A falls into a solid situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off two or more consecutive overs that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against an opponent that is allowing between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983.

The first game is the San Diego Chargers (-3) at the Cleveland Browns.  That was the line opener and has gone back and forth from -1 all week.  One thing I like to look for are teams coming off of bye weeks, as the Chargers are doing.  Combine that with an ailing Trent Richardson for Cleveland that spells trouble for the Brownies, even with Phillip Rivers having 6 turnovers his last start.  Take San Diego.  The next game is Washington at Pittsburgh (-4.5).  The Redskins are 3-4 on the season and are giving up a ridiculous 328 passing yards per game, however they have RG3 and he alone will keep this game close until the end.  Take the Skins and the points.  Now let's look at Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3).  With both of these teams coming off of byes they each have had 2 weeks to prepare for each other.  The Falcons are the only undefeated team left in the NFL but had a close call their last game at home against the Raiders which they won 23-20.  As for the Eagles, Michael Vick has not been able to hold onto the ball this year as he's turned it over 11 times in 6 games.  Aside from an OT loss to the Lions, the Eagles have beaten 2 really good teams at home in the Giants and pre-injury Ravens.  I look for that trend to continue as the Eagles come out on top and rid the league of unbeaten teams.

     Finally, I want to touch on my teams, Michigan and the Lions.  The Wolverines face a tough test tonight traveling to Nebraska.  This game is big for both teams as the winner will have the edge to play for the Big Ten title at the end of the year.  I want to say that Michigan has turned the corner after their slow start and coming off an important home win against Sparty but this matchup makes me nervous.  A night game in Lincoln is never an easy situation and this is the first time the Wolverines have made this trip.  I want to say that I have faith in my team but being realistic I think Nebraska takes it, unfortunately.  As for the Lions, I'm happy to say I have tickets to the game (I knew working where I do was good for something!).  The Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson have struggled on the road (1-3) but they boast one of the leagues best defenses equipped with the biggest corners Calvin Johnson will see all year.  But, with Seattle's strength in the running game and our strength in rush defense I find it hard to see them moving the ball.  The question will be if the Lions can limit their turnovers and not give Seattle a short field to work with.  If they are able to do that i believe Detroit will come out on top in a game they desperately need if they want to keep any playoff hopes alive.